The Forecast of Beijing Habitat Quality Dynamics Considering the Government Land Use Planning and the City’s Spatial Heterogeneity

Round 1

Reviewer 1 Report

1. Please pay attention and check whether the article is written in accordance with the editorial requirements of the publisher.

2. Figures 4, 5, 6 are hard to read. I propose to increase their size, but not to lose quality.

3. Changes should definitely be made to the record of literature, because it is not complete, for example: LIANG X, LIU X, LI X, et al. Delineating multi-scenario urban growth boundaries with a CA-based FLUS model and 443 morphological method[J]. Landscape and urban planning, 2018,177: 47-63. "et al" in notation? all authors must be listed. This is duplicated in many entries.

4. Were the analyzes compared in other regions/countries? How is it on other continents?

Author Response

Please see the attachment.

Author Response File: Author Response.pdf

Reviewer 2 Report

The relevance of the research topic is connected with the solution of the scientific problem of forecasting the dynamics of the quality of the living environment, taking into account the spatial heterogeneity of urban planning for the development of territories.

The purpose of this study was to predict and assess future changes in the quality of the habitat can to ensure a balance of socio-economic development of the settlement.

Comments to the article.

1. When modeling and using predictive models, it is important to assess the "sensitivity" of the result, i.e. how much the solutions recommended by the model depend on the values of specific parameters that serve as inputs to the model. Perhaps the authors did not explicitly present the range of use of variables. Please clarify this point.

2. The method for determining land use should be described in detail/

3. As a result, the development strategy in the medium and long term is not clear. It is a superficial approach to forecasting the development of the external environment that can lead to one of the serious mistakes that are made when forming strategies. Of course, it is almost impossible to predict unambiguously all the factors that will have a significant impact on development. However, it is the ability to predict the future state of the external environment and form a strategy based on this forecast that determines the sustainability of the development of territories. Otherwise, the strategy, which is a consequence of a single forecast, is not able to cover the entire range of possible urban planning solutions. As a result, such a strategy quickly becomes ineffective, and it takes time to adjust it or develop a new one. In conditions of uncertainty of the development of the external environment, scenario methods of forecasting and planning are the most effective, which is what the authors use in their work. Scenario methods are aimed at making not one forecast, but a number of strategic scenarios for the development of the environment, for each of which its own strategy is formed.

4. At the same time, a scenario that would be aggregated in relation to human development in urbanized territories is not considered, since human development is the main goal of planning. The LC scenario used in the work is a prototype of the principle of the trinity of the concept of sustainable development.

5. There is no section "Research prospects".

The relevance of the research topic is connected with the solution of the scientific problem of forecasting the dynamics of the quality of the living environment, taking into account the spatial heterogeneity of urban planning for the development of territories.

The purpose of this study was to predict and assess future changes in the quality of the habitat can to ensure a balance of socio-economic development of the settlement.

Comments to the article.

1. When modeling and using predictive models, it is important to assess the "sensitivity" of the result, i.e. how much the solutions recommended by the model depend on the values of specific parameters that serve as inputs to the model. Perhaps the authors did not explicitly present the range of use of variables. Please clarify this point.

2. The method for determining land use should be described in detail/

3. As a result, the development strategy in the medium and long term is not clear. It is a superficial approach to forecasting the development of the external environment that can lead to one of the serious mistakes that are made when forming strategies. Of course, it is almost impossible to predict unambiguously all the factors that will have a significant impact on development. However, it is the ability to predict the future state of the external environment and form a strategy based on this forecast that determines the sustainability of the development of territories. Otherwise, the strategy, which is a consequence of a single forecast, is not able to cover the entire range of possible urban planning solutions. As a result, such a strategy quickly becomes ineffective, and it takes time to adjust it or develop a new one. In conditions of uncertainty of the development of the external environment, scenario methods of forecasting and planning are the most effective, which is what the authors use in their work. Scenario methods are aimed at making not one forecast, but a number of strategic scenarios for the development of the environment, for each of which its own strategy is formed.

4. At the same time, a scenario that would be aggregated in relation to human development in urbanized territories is not considered, since human development is the main goal of planning. The LC scenario used in the work is a prototype of the principle of the trinity of the concept of sustainable development.

5. There is no section "Research prospects".

Author Response

Please see the attachment.

Author Response File: Author Response.pdf

Reviewer 3 Report

 This study used PLUS model to simulate the spatial distribution of LULC in multiple scenarios and. analyzed the future habitat quality patterns in Beijing under different scenarios. In general, this study has clear ideas, reasonable logic, and appropriate methods, and has certain guiding significance for the Yellow River Basin carbon emission control. Some suggestions:

1、 In order to verify the rationality of the zoning strategy, we used PLUS model to simulate the land use in 2020, with 2015 as the starting year and 2020 as the ending year. The time interval is too short, and there may be little change in land use type but relatively high simulation accuracy.

2、 Although multiple scenarios were set in the land use simulation, the results showed that the mean difference of habitat quality under the four scenarios in the future was very small. What's the reason?

3、 It is too macroscopic to see the change of habitat quality from the perspective of the whole study area. It is suggested to analyze the change trend of habitat quality in different regions.

4、There are many grammatical errors in the article. It is recommended to read the whole article and revise it.

 This study used PLUS model to simulate the spatial distribution of LULC in multiple scenarios and. analyzed the future habitat quality patterns in Beijing under different scenarios. In general, this study has clear ideas, reasonable logic, and appropriate methods, and has certain guiding significance for the Yellow River Basin carbon emission control. Some suggestions:

1、 In order to verify the rationality of the zoning strategy, we used PLUS model to simulate the land use in 2020, with 2015 as the starting year and 2020 as the ending year. The time interval is too short, and there may be little change in land use type but relatively high simulation accuracy.

2、 Although multiple scenarios were set in the land use simulation, the results showed that the mean difference of habitat quality under the four scenarios in the future was very small. What's the reason?

3、 It is too macroscopic to see the change of habitat quality from the perspective of the whole study area. It is suggested to analyze the change trend of habitat quality in different regions.

4、There are many grammatical errors in the article. It is recommended to read the whole article and revise it.

Author Response

Please see the attachment.

Author Response File: Author Response.pdf