Snow Disaster Hazard Assessment on the Tibetan Plateau Based on Copula Function

Round 1

Reviewer 1 Report

Dear Authors,

Suggested corrections are;

Please add 1-2 sentences with the numerical results obtained in the abstract section. The abstract will be the most read part of the study.

At the beginning of the introduction, add 1-2 sentences about the necessity of climatic conditions and especially snow hazard analysis. This will be of greater interest to the reader.

The literature information used in the study adds value to the study. Please add snow loads and snow hazard assessment in different countries of the world to the relevant resource.

Germain, D. (2016). Snow avalanche hazard assessment and risk management in northern Quebec, eastern Canada. Natural Hazards, 80, 1303-1321.

Aydin, M.C., Işhik, E. Evaluation of ground snow loads in the micro-climate regions. Russ. Meteorol. Hydrol. 40, 741–748 (2015).

Letcher, T. W., LeGrand, S. L., & Polashenski, C. M. (2022). The Blowing Snow Hazard Assessment and Risk Prediction model: a Python based downscaling and risk prediction for snow surface erodibility and probability of blowing snow.

The study includes snow hazard analysis. Please add a section on snow losses to the literature section. This will reveal the importance of your work more clearly.

Dziadak, B. (2020). Structural health monitoring system for snow and wind load measurement. Electronics, 9(4), 609.

Fuchs, S., & Bründl, M. (2005). Damage potential and losses resulting from snow avalanches in settlements of the canton of Grisons, Switzerland. Natural Hazards, 34(1), 53-69.

Işik, E.; Ülker, M.; Aydin, M.C. Stress Analysis of Steel Roof Trusses According To Different Snow Loads. In Proceedings of the 3rd CEPPIS International Scientific Conference on Civil Engineering: Present Problems, Innovative Solutions (CEPPIS2017), Bydgoszcz, Poland, 31 May 2017.

Please add the stages of your work with a paragraph at the end of the introduction.

In addition, clearly indicate the novelty or difference of your work from other studies in this section.

Snow disasters and losses in this plateau can be given in a table.

If possible, rearrange Figure 2b.

Why the Copula function was chosen should be added to the article.

The snow data used should be included in the article with a table if possible.

It is necessary to increase the resolution of the figures.

Please add 1-2 sentences with your results under the figures and tables you have obtained.

If there are standards, regulations or maps related to snow loads and snow hazards on the plateau considered in your study, it would be beneficial to add comments on them.

 

Include the validation, limitation, and future availability of your work in the conclusion.

Yours Sincerely

 

Author Response

Dear Professor, thank you for your valuable advice!

• We have revised the abstract section with clear data that demonstrates our research results.
• We have taken your suggestion and added a statement at the beginning of the introduction to emphasize the importance of climate change in recent years and its significant impact on snow hazards.
• Thank you for providing the reference materials. In the first paragraph of the introduction, we briefly introduced relevant research on snow disasters in other countries.
• We have added Table 1 to the introduction, which details a range of losses caused by significant historical snow disasters, and highlights the importance of studying snow hazard risk analysis.
• We have already made the modifications to the conclusion of the introduction and added the description of the work stages of this study based on your suggestions. Please review and confirm the changes made. If further modifications are needed, please let us know.
• In this study, we have used a data table format (Table 1) to present significant snow disaster events in the history of the plateau and the resulting losses in animal husbandry, highlighting the importance and value of snow disaster risk assessment.
• We have rearranged Figure 2 to make it aesthetically pleasing and readable. If it still does not meet your requirements, please provide more detailed specifications.
• The reason for choosing Copula function in this study has been elaborated in the third paragraph of the Introduction. Existing researches using semi-quantitative methods cannot calculate the risk of snow disasters, while other quantitative methods based on single variables cannot fully reflect the characteristics of snow disasters. Therefore, we have chosen Copula function in this study, and its advantages and application areas are explained in detail in the fourth paragraph of the Introduction.
• The data used in this article has been processed by the researchers. Due to the large volume of data, it is not convenient to present it in the form of a table in the article. If you need the original data, please access the following website: http://data.cma.cn/
• The manuscript has been re-uploaded with higher resolution figures, and we have also provided new image files. Please check your email for the updated files.
• Each figure and table in the article has been hyperlinked for your convenience, and the results interpretation for the images and tables have been presented in detail in the main text. If you have any further confusions or doubts regarding the elements in the images and tables, please provide us with more details.
• Regarding the snow disaster criteria defined in this study, reference was made to the research results of scholar Xuezhi Feng^[42] , and the source literature has been cited. Meanwhile, the Chinese national standard for Snow Disaster Grades in Grazing Regions of China (GB/T20482-2017) was also used as a reference.
• In the conclusion section, we will add content that includes the validation results, limitations, and future usability of our research, and explain their impact and significance. This will make our research more complete and persuasive.

Thank you very much for your valuable suggestions on our paper. These suggestions have been of great help to our research. Under your guidance, our paper has become more precise, clear, and logical. We have carefully reviewed and incorporated your suggested revisions, and have re-uploaded the revised file.

Sincerely

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Reviewer 2 Report

Based on snow event dataset, this study utilized Copula function to assess the hazard of snow disasters and the comprehensive risk of snow disasters in the Tibetan Plateau. On the whole, this topic is meaningful and it can provide reference for understanding the distribution of snow disasters and disaster risk reduction in high-risk areas of the Tibetan Plateau. However, there are some problems that need further consideration by the authors.

1. In terms of the organizational structure, it is recommended to organize all the methods and data involved into the “Part 2 Data and Methods”of the article. For example, in the Discussion section, methods and data related to risk assessment should be adjusted into the Part 2 of the text.

2. The Discussion section should mainly focus on in-depth exploration and expansion of the analysis results. The current discussion section of the article is about snow disaster risk assessment, and the analysis results should be presented in the Results of Part 3.

3. Add discussion content on the distribution characteristics of snow hazard and disaster risk, and unify them into the Discussion of Part 4.

4. The international definition of risk is believed to be a function of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Risk assessment should be aimed at the same disaster object, such as population risk, and its exposure and vulnerability should be related to the population. The number of people and livestock are chose as the indicators of exposure in the current study, while the vulnerability is based on gross value of primary industry and per capita GDP data, which is incorrect. For example, per capita GDP is often used as an indicator of disaster resilience rather than vulnerability. If the author intends to evaluate the comprehensive risk of snow disasters, it is suggested to first evaluate the snow disaster risks of different disaster objects separately, and then integrate the risks of different disaster objects together.

5. The legend font should be as large as possible for readers to read easily.

Minor editing of English language required

Author Response

Dear Professor, thank you for your valuable advice!

• Thank you for your guidance. We have made revisions to the article in accordance with your suggestions. We have integrated all the relevant methods and data into "Part 2 Data and Methods", and added the method for snow disaster risk assessment to section 2.3.5 of the second part. This is to help other readers better understand the structure and content of the article.
• Thank you for your guidance. We have made significant revisions to the Results and Discussion sections, moving the snow disaster risk analysis to section 3.5 of the third part. The Discussion section now focuses more on in-depth exploration and expansion of the analysis results. Thank you again for your valuable input.
• In the discussion section, we added content on the distribution characteristics of snow disaster hazards and disaster risks. In addition, based on the results of our study, we analyzed the influencing mechanism of snow disaster risk.
• Thank you for your supplementary explanation on the definition of “risk” in the international context. We have re-examined and improved the assessment method for snow disaster risks in this study. We adopted the natural disaster risk formation theory to construct the SDRI index, and comprehensively evaluated the risks from four aspects: hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and disaster prevention and mitigation capacity. For each aspect, we re-selected their corresponding indicators. Both this theory and existing research indicate that both humans and livestock can be evaluated comprehensively for snow disasters. For example, for exposure, we selected population density and livestock stock numbers; for vulnerability, we selected altitude, slope, and aspect; for disaster prevention and mitigation capacity, we selected per capita GDP and primary industry output. The new research results have been re-uploaded to Section 3.5 of the article on snow disaster risk assessment. Once again, thank you for your valuable suggestions which helped us to improve the research.
• We have re-uploaded clearer images and used the largest possible font size in the legends to ensure that readers can see all the details in the legends clearly.
• We have made some precise editing to the English expressions in the article to better convey our message.

Thank you very much for your guidance! Your revisions and suggestions have been very helpful for our paper. We appreciate your precious time and effort in helping us improve our paper, making it more accurate, clear, and understandable. Your professional knowledge and experience have greatly benefited us. We carefully considered each of your comments and made corresponding modifications. We sincerely thank you again for your guidance, which will contribute to our future academic development!  

Sincerely

 

 

 

 

Reviewer 3 Report

The manuscript is very well written and was a pleasure to read. The methodology is robust, and the data underpin the conclusions drawn. 

Author Response

Dear Professor,

        We are extremely honored to receive your recognition of our research, which demonstrates that our hard work and efforts have achieved meaningful results. We have always upheld a scientific and rigorous attitude, constantly conducted experiments and adjustments, and strived to eliminate errors and uncertainties. Your recognition of our research results has given us great encouragement and motivation. In the future, under your guidance, we will continue to delve deeper into our research, and constantly improve and enhance our research achievements.

        Once again, thank you very much for your recognition of our research. We will work even harder to achieve better results.

Sincerely

Reviewer 4 Report

 

Conclusively, I suggest this article may be accepted after a minor revision. I suggest the authors complement the following contents:

1. The source of Equation (2) or how it was equated;

2. Results provided by a baseline model showing that the authors' model is sufficiently accurate;

Besides, the authors identified two high-value snow risk areas. Is any photo or local topography confirming that the authors' model correctly picked high-value snow-risk areas available? Alternatively, the authors may re-use Figure 1 of this article by marking their identification of two high-value snow risky areas on this figure. Thus, the authors can show their probabilistic model is sound.

 

Acceptable.

Author Response

Dear Professor, thank you for your valuable suggestions and guidance!

• Thank you very much for your suggestion. The source of equation (2) has been referenced to Yue S, Ouarda T B M J, Bobée B, et al. "The Gumbel mixed model for flood frequency analysis" published in the Journal of Hydrology in 1999, volume 226, issue 1-2, pages 88-100. The derivation process of the equation is elaborated in the original text.
• Regarding the accuracy of the data model, we calculated the R² (R squared) of the model in Matlab. The R² value ranges from 0 to 1, with values closer to 1 indicating a better fit of the model. After calculation, the R² for all sites was greater than 0.9. In addition, we have also provided the results of four sites labeled in Figure 5: Fit plot of theoretical frequency and empirical frequency.
• This study identified two high snow disaster risk areas. We examined《Disaster statistical dataset of Qinghai Tibet Plateau (1950-2002)》and related research literature, and the historical significant snow disaster events recorded have been listed in Table 1. The severely affected areas are consistent with the snow disaster high-risk areas identified in this study, indicating that our probability model is reliable.

Thank you very much for revising our paper and providing valuable suggestions. Your guidance is extremely important to us. Your advice has helped us to thoroughly understand and improve our research, identifying the problems and omissions in our paper. In addition, your advice has prompted us to think deeply and reflect on our research in order to express and explain our conclusions more accurately. We have carefully addressed the problems you raised and made improvements, in order to make our research completer and more precise. The revised file has been uploaded. Once again, thank you for your guidance and help! 

Sincerely