Exploring the Moderating Role of COVID-19 on the Adaptive Performance and Project Success: Inching towards Energy Transition

Abstract

Globally, approximately one-third of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are attributed to the energy sector. The global efforts to reduce emissions by 45 percent by 2030 in pursuit of net-zero emission targets depend on the timely completion of renewable energy projects. Among numerous internal and external factors that influence the success of projects, the performance of the workforce in response to changing project dynamics is a key yet little-explored factor. As such, the complexities and uncertainties brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic only enhanced the intensity of existing challenges faced by the workforce. This study investigates the moderating impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the relationship between adaptive performance and the success of wind power plants in Pakistan. By drawing a sample size of 345 project personnel and using SMART PLS 4, the findings indicate that adaptive performance is a desired attribute in the workforce, and it contributes significantly towards the success of wind power plants in Pakistan. In addition, the stress, disturbance in work-life balance, and physical issues due to COVID-19 weaken the relationship of adaptive performance with the project’s success. This study has implications for renewable energy projects’ stakeholders to not ignore this aspect of performance and support the workforce through training, development, and adaptive management practices, as well as making projects flexible enough to facilitate changes. In addition, this study provides theoretical implications that highlight how human agency is affected by external factors, which in this case is the COVID-19 pandemic.

1. Introduction

The current temperature of Earth is 1.1 °C warmer than it was in the late 1800s because of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Despite the global commitments under the framework of the Paris Agreement, the current efforts of countries are in stark contrast to limiting global warming to 1.5 °C over the twenty-first century [1]. According to the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, crossing the 1.5 °C mark will unbridle severe climate change impacts on humanity. Globally, approximately one-third of GHG emissions are attributed to the energy sector [2]. This sector holds the key to halving emissions by 2030 by ramping up the share of renewables in the global energy mix [2]. There is an increasing focus among investors and developers on investing heavily in research and development and commercializing newer forms of renewable energy in order to enhance the overall global supply. Conversely, countries across the globe are lured by renewable energy projects due to their national energy security concerns and as a cost-effective alternative to fossil fuels. Therefore, the renewable energy projects are envisaged to make a significant contribution by reducing CO₂ emissions by one-third between 2020 and 2030 [3].

In many aspects, renewable energy projects are similar to conventional construction projects. However, there are distinct issues associated with renewable projects that besiege each phase of the project’s life cycle. These projects are sophisticated, long-duration projects that not only require significant capital and a skilled workforce but are also subjected to delays and cost overruns due to extreme weather conditions and supply chain issues [4]. In addition, the absence of supportive regulatory regimes and political stability, along with the involvement of multiple stakeholders across different jurisdictions, causes bottlenecks during pre-development and development phases. Another risk for renewable energy projects is the deployment of technology in its nascent stages by the developers without prior experience of commercialization. Consequently, projects fail to perform as expected, causing additional challenges for the workforce.

Pakistan is a developing Asian country that aims to achieve an emission reduction target of 50 percent by 2030 through the addition of renewable energy projects [5]. During 2015, the share of renewable energy (excluding hydropower) in the energy mix was only 0.43 percent [6], which gradually rose to 6.9 percent in 2022 in the aftermath of the government’s efforts towards energy transition [7]. Despite these efforts, the energy mix remains highly skewed in favor of expensive and imported thermal power generation, accounting for 66 percent of the share [7]. The unsustainable energy mix makes Pakistan vulnerable to price shocks, supply disruptions, and other geopolitical risks. Due to planning failures and political instability, Pakistan continues to pay the cost of slow progress towards renewables despite being endowed with abundant renewable energy opportunities.

The implementation of energy projects in Pakistan is subject to numerous issues, such as complex regulatory processes, supply chain disruption of raw materials and machinery, shortage of skilled workforce, and deployment in remote locations [8]. However, the intensity of these challenges has increased manifold for ongoing renewable energy projects due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The supply chain interruptions, shortages of workers, and restrictions on their mobility posed additional risks and further pushed project deadlines ahead [9]. The earliest cases of COVID-19 emerged in February 2020 [10]. Subsequently, the virus was transmitted quickly in Pakistan, with higher transmission rates observed in the populous Punjab and Sindh provinces. According to an estimate, the tally of affected individuals reached 4601 within 45 days. So far, the pandemic has caused 30,656 deaths in Pakistan [11]. To deal with the rising transmission rate and the number of casualties, the government of Pakistan initially imposed unavoidable precautionary measures such as travel limitations, a ban on gatherings, and mandatory quarantine for doubtful patients. Resultantly, the nationwide workforce grappled with unprecedented challenges, including heightened stress, anxiety, and uncertainty, impacting the quality and progress of their work [12].

Projects encounter unforeseen risks, challenges, or disruptions that are difficult to perceive during the initial phases. The uncertainties in the organization as well as in the external environment impact projects negatively [13]. The completion of projects in terms of time, cost, and scope is characterized by both internal and external factors for the organization [14]. Since humans are at the core of operations, their ability to adapt to changing work situations and deal with emerging issues and stress influences the outcome of projects [15]. The concept of adaptive performance entails the essential core competency of individuals and teams to adjust their behavior, skills, and knowledge to steer dynamic work situations [15].

As the research on adaptive performance evolved, the literature expanded, guided by two separate but interconnected lines of inquiry. The first group laid their emphasis either on finding the desired aspects that make individuals adaptable or on the processes by which adaptation occurs in organizations [16,17,18,19,20]. The second group of studies contributed to the literature by proposing multidimensional measures, which constitute the construct of adaptive performance [15,21]. However, the existing literature on adaptive performance lacks evidence-based research. In this context, Loughlin and Priyadarshini [22] tested the eight-dimension taxonomy of adaptive performance developed by Pulakos et al. [21] with data from the health and software industries and reported that adaptive performance is a desired trait for project managers. Similarly, another study conducted by Radhakrishnan et al. [23] with data from IT, manufacturing, engineering, aerospace, and construction found that the adaptive performance of the project’s team partially mediates the relationship between project agility and the project’s success.

There is no evidence found in the literature that probes the relationship between the adaptive performance of the workforce and project success within the context of the rapidly evolving environment of the energy sector. In addition, there is a significant knowledge gap that does not address how the adaptive performance of the workforce is affected by the external environment in the form of physical and psychosocial impacts emanating from the COVID-19 pandemic. This study addresses the above-mentioned gaps by drawing a data set of project managers and staff from the wind power projects that were granted tariffs by the National Electricity Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) in 2018 [9]. Backed by social cognitive theory, this study investigates the following research questions:

Does adaptive performance impact the success of renewable energy projects?

Does the psycho-social impact of the COVID-19 pandemic moderate the relationship between adaptive performance and the success of renewable energy projects?

This study contributes to the literature by arguing that the success of energy projects and the energy transition of countries also reside in the micromanagement of energy projects. In doing so, it highlights the importance of fostering a work environment that is indispensable to supporting the workforce. In addition, this study highlights that beyond the conventionally stated external environment factors originating from political, economic, and technology domains, the psychosocial impacts also have a bearing on the behavior of the workforce of renewable energy projects. As such, this study has implications for the management of the renewable energy sector and involves stakeholders such as project firms and host governments. The next section draws on the relevant literature and proposes hypotheses. The methodology is mentioned in Section 3, while Section 4, Section 5 and Section 6 sequentially contain the findings, discussion, and conclusion.

2. Literature Review

2.1. Theoretical Foundation

This study is underpinned by social cognitive theory. By uncovering the nature and function of human agency, this theory acknowledges the influential role of human characteristics in adaptation and change. The project organizations are subject to rapid change, and it is indispensable to assess the prerequisites for the adaptive performance of the project workforce to nurture appropriate skills, competencies, knowledge, capabilities, and potential for advancement [15,16]. In addition, due to their fleeting nature, projects elude following standard organizational processes, leaving their workforce exposed to unforeseen challenges. The hurdles faced by the work force in projects and their corresponding actions to overcome those challenges are intertwined with the premise of social contingency theory. Human agency resides in the future-time perspective of individuals, which is driven by their desire for self-direction and self-motivation [24]. In the pursuit of self-directedness, people set standards, keep track of their behavior, and create ways and means to achieve what they set out to do, as well as dispel anything that threatens their future plans [25]. While setting goals is a precondition that determines the actions of individuals, it also encourages people to reorganize their priorities and continue their efforts to reach their goals. At the core of this theory lies the psychosocial framework of human agency, which is grounded in the triadic reciprocal causation comprising behavior, cognitive and other personal factors, and environmental factors [25]. While human actions and thought processes are woven into the reciprocal relationship of these determinants, this dynamic relationship determines the way individuals respond to changes and eventually shapes how projects fare.

According to social contingency theory, two central concepts drive human agency, which manifest adaptive behavior in employees: self-efficacy and the expectation of outcomes [26]. It is the presence of these dimensions that sets individuals apart in cases where they possess the same skill set. Perceived self-efficacy is a judgment of one’s abilities to organize and execute given types of performance, whereas outcome expectation refers to the judgment of the likely consequences such performances will produce [27]. It is the belief of people in their self-efficacy that determines what course of action they pursue, the level of effort they are willing to commit to a goal, and their steadfastness to overcome obstacles and failures [24]. The higher self-efficacy beliefs are linked with those individuals who are more aligned towards their goals. It is because such individuals take pride in accepting challenges, and they do not get upset by daunting tasks. Conversely, individuals who are less confident about their capabilities foresee situations that are beyond their control. They worry about the potential troubles and experience higher stress levels emanating from challenging environmental demands. Therefore, goal accomplishments are not dependent on the skill set attained by an individual. Rather, it is determined by the level of belief in one’s capabilities and positive perceptions of the possible consequences of actions [27].

2.2. Differentiating Project Success with the Critical Success Factors

Without a clear understanding of how success is measured, the topic of project success is abstract. The criteria to assess the success of a project need to be set at the outset of the project to produce synergy in the project’s efforts as well as the short- and long-term goals of the organization [28]. It also helps to avoid any misunderstandings and ambiguities regarding the roles of various project stakeholders. The project sponsors, clients, and owners are those stakeholders who are most interested in assessing the success of the projects. Their prerogative to set the project goals and decide the parameters upon which to decide the success criteria of projects caught the attention of numerous researchers to include stakeholder satisfaction other than the traditional criteria of time, cost, and quality [28,29,30]. Therefore, earlier identification of project stakeholders’ needs and expectations by the project managers is linked with meeting the project’s goals and managing the expectations of stakeholders [31]. In view of Shenhar [32], time, cost, and conformance with functional and technical specifications are the key concerns associated with the project from its initiation to completion, whereas stakeholder satisfaction is an equally important criterion that assesses the success of a project once it is complete.

A second component highlighted by studies exploring the topic of project success is the critical success factors (CSFs). These factors are shaped by circumstances, characteristics, or influences that, if properly sustained, maintained, or managed, can have a significant impact on the success of the project [33]. While the CSFs are the few successful key areas where things must go right for the project to meet its success criteria, they are tied to the project’s success through a cause-and-effect relationship. This makes both the project managers and stakeholders value the identification and categorization of CSFs, as any improvement in the CSFs directly leads to enhancing the success of the projects. The literature on CSFs either emphasized the identification of factors that are either too generic or too specific to fit into contexts. The earlier studies that postulated the framework of CSFs categorized factors into project-related, organizational, human-related, and external environment factors [14,34]. In the context of energy projects, Zhao et al. [35] identified fourteen factors and made their distinctions based on project-specific factors and those arising from the outside environment. While the macro-level factors constituted factors outside the project firm such as economy, politics, and regulations, the micro-level factors included the project developer’s management and business capacity, the past success of the developer, and the capacity of both the project contractor and suppliers.

There is no universal set of CSFs that can be generalized across all sectors. However, the literature on project CSFs from construction [34,36], IT [23], and energy sectors [35,37] coincides to note the significance of the management and performance of the project firms [36,38]. Since the project managers and personnel involved in projects are at the core of project firms [39], the focus of this paper is centered on a key characteristic of project personnel: adaptive performance. In addition, the theoretical lens of social cognitive theory underpins that the psychosocial functioning of humans is subjected to personal factors and the events that shape the environment [26].

2.3. Hypotheses Development

2.3.1. Adaptive Performance and Project Success

Typically, the performance of an individual is seen as a manifestation of behavior. Performance is a function of each individual’s expertise, capability, and the amount of contribution made to a job [40]. Many organizational researchers highlighted the limitations in the scope of conventional performance models such as task and contextual performance as they failed to cover the responsiveness of employees to changing job requirements [16,41,42]. Adaptive performance reflects the flexible work behavior of individuals regarding the changes experienced and their capability to adapt to new conditions or job requirements [20,21]. The changing working environment presents new challenges that not only require individuals to sustain interpersonal relationships and operate effectively but also creatively solve complex and ill-defined problems [18]. As the uncertainty in the project environment increases, there is an increased adaptability and versatility desired from the individuals to continue their tasks [17]. In view of Charbonnier-Voirin and Roussel [15], an individual demonstrates adaptive performance if he can solve problems creatively, handle unforeseen situations calmly, always strive to enhance knowledge and skills, exhibit interpersonal flexibility to work alongside peers, and deal with stress effectively. The definitions of lower-order constructs of adaptive performance used in this study are mentioned in Table 1.

Adaptive performance is known to make an impact at the individual level as well as the organizational level [19,23,43]. In the context of employees, adaptive performance breeds favorable outcomes in the form of employee accomplishments, whereas organizations benefit from effectively managing change, enhancing organizational learning, and meeting goals [19]. The literature attributes numerous contextual and situational factors, such as job, team, and organizational characteristics, that lead individuals to pursue their performance goals by adjusting to interpersonal and organizational changes [20]. However, a central characteristic that determines the extent and variation in the response of an individual to engage in adaptive performance is the behavior of individuals [17,18,21,44]. Adaptive performance is a manifestation of behavior that an individual exhibits in response to anticipation of change as well as in response to an unforeseen change [18]. The behavioral tendencies of individuals are anchored in the social contingency theory, which posits that the cognitive abilities of individuals reflect how they approach tasks that require solving problems and making decisions [25]. While individuals who have higher cognitive ability are likely to master new skills quickly, they also have a greater tendency to demonstrate stubborn behavior towards evolving situations [44]. In addition, the ability to secure desired outcomes and prevent undesired ones emboldens individuals to exercise self-control and make efforts to achieve their goals [19,22]. Therefore, the following hypothesis is deduced.

Table 1. First-order dimensions of adaptive performance.

First-Order Dimensions of Adaptive Performance	Definition	References
Solving problems creatively	Creating and utilizing new and innovative ways to deal with complex issues.	[15,21,45]
Reactivity in facing emergencies	Split second decision-making to assess options to deal with crises; keeping emotional control while handling emergencies.	[21,46]
Interpersonal adaptability	Exhibiting flexibility in listening to others: changing one’s attitude to convince, influence, or work effectively with diverse team members.	[15,21]
Training effort	Keeping skills and knowledge updated; anticipating changes in job requirements; involvement in assignments and training to improve performance deficiencies.	[21,47,48]
Handling work stress	Maintaining composure when exposed to difficult circumstances or excessive workload: instead of blaming others, demonstrate professionalism in stressful conditions.	[15,21,49,50]

Table 1. First-order dimensions of adaptive performance.

First-Order Dimensions of Adaptive Performance	Definition	References
Solving problems creatively	Creating and utilizing new and innovative ways to deal with complex issues.	[15,21,45]
Reactivity in facing emergencies	Split second decision-making to assess options to deal with crises; keeping emotional control while handling emergencies.	[21,46]
Interpersonal adaptability	Exhibiting flexibility in listening to others: changing one’s attitude to convince, influence, or work effectively with diverse team members.	[15,21]
Training effort	Keeping skills and knowledge updated; anticipating changes in job requirements; involvement in assignments and training to improve performance deficiencies.	[21,47,48]
Handling work stress	Maintaining composure when exposed to difficult circumstances or excessive workload: instead of blaming others, demonstrate professionalism in stressful conditions.	[15,21,49,50]

H1: 

The adaptive performance of individuals positively influences the success of renewable energy projects.

2.3.2. The COVID-19 Pandemic and Adaptive Performance

A growing body of literature has reported the psychological issues faced by the workforce in the aftermath of restrictions due to the COVID-19 pandemic. These issues included stressful conditions such as depression, anxiety, the tendency to commit suicide, excessive thinking about the infection, the feeling of vulnerability, abandonment, and social isolation [49,51,52]. he emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic brought challenges of unmatched proportions for the workforce, which warranted organizations making adjustments at the technical, physical, and socio-psychological levels [53]. There is evidence of the workforce experiencing distress and anxiety in the aftermath of COVID-19 and the ensuing deterioration of working conditions [54]. COVID-19 not only demotivates employees to perform their tasks, but it is also known to drive employees closer to long-term stress disorder, which includes permanent feelings of fatigue and a repulsive attitude towards responsibilities [54]. On one hand, the abrupt changes in the social and work environment caused discomfort and increased the fear of missing deadlines. On the other hand, lifestyle choices due to COVID-19 are also found to significantly impact the employee’s distress levels [49].

The external environment plays a significant role in determining the fit between organizational characteristics and success in achieving goals. According to social cognitive theory, human agency is shaped by the reciprocating relationship of behavioral, environmental, and personal influences. While the cognitive abilities of a manager to lead during turbulent times depend on adaptive personality, the actions of individuals and their motivation are prone to the external environment, which can directly impact the motivation of individuals [55]. Despite the sudden, imposed nature of the COVID-19 pandemic, resilient individuals are able to adapt their cognitive and emotional responses to the crisis. The resilience of the individuals plays a protective role against the psychological impacts of the crisis. Resilient individuals tend to exhibit a more robust psychological state, which enables them to bounce back from adversity more effectively [56]. This protective aspect of resilience contributes to better mental health outcomes, reduced stress levels, and an overall enhanced ability to navigate the uncertainties brought about by the pandemic [56]. On the contrary, individuals with a weak sense of self-efficacy are troubled by the fear of things that can go wrong. Stress and depression overpower individuals when they believe that they lack the capabilities to cope with changing situations [19]. These self-regulative capabilities substantiate the social cognitive theory and lead to the following hypothesis. The conceptual framework is displayed in Figure 1.

H2: 

The COVID-19 pandemic weakens the relationship between adaptive performance and project success.

3. Methodology

3.1. Development of Survey Instruments and Measures

This study deploys the questionnaire-survey approach to investigate the relationship between the proposed variables. To do so, the questionnaire items to measure the variables were adapted from the previously developed, well-established measures specifically designed for researchers and practitioners. The final questionnaire comprised two parts: the first part comprised the respondent’s profile, while the second part comprised study variables and their respective questionnaire items measured against a five-point Likert scale.

3.1.1. Adaptive Performance

The adaptive performance of project managers is modeled as a higher-order construct with five sub-constructs: creativity (CR), reactivity in the face of emergencies (RE), interpersonal adaptability (IA), training effort (TE), and handling work stress (HS). The established scale developed by Charbonnier-Voirin and Roussel [15] (p. 5) was used to measure adaptive performance through the lower-order constructs. This scale is already deployed in the context of the adaptive performance of project teams [23]. The dimensions cover desired adaptive performance traits, which also fit well in the context of renewable energy projects.

3.1.2. Project Success

The project’s success is modeled as a first-order construct. Since this scale measured four dimensions, including on-time completion, within budget, meeting project specifications, and end-user satisfaction, it was used to measure the success of the project. For this purpose, a total of seven items were adapted from the items developed by Aga et al. [57]. The sample question used was “Given the problem for which it was developed, the project did the best job of solving that problem.

3.1.3. COVID-19 Pandemic

The scale developed by Min et al. [52] served as the inspiration for the first-order COVID-19 construct used in this study. This scale comprises 10 items that were originally established during the COVID-19 pandemic to assess the psychological stress experienced by individuals regarding both their work and daily lives. This scale blends perfectly with the objectives of this study, as it covers the worsening impact on behavior at the individual level as well as the declining standard of living due to COVID-19. The sample questions included “Please indicate how much your life was affected by the COVID-19 related problems?” and “How much the COVID-19 did related problems interfere with your interpersonal relationships?” All items were rated on a five-point Likert scale.

3.2. Pilot Testing

Before proceeding to the final data collection, a four-stage method proposed by Dillman [58] (p. 140) opted to pre-test and pilot-test the survey instrument within Pakistan’s context and improve the clarity of questions. During stage one, five project managers with more than five years of experience and three faculty members were approached for content validity. In the next stage, to improve the clarity, readability, and presentation of questions, four project management faculty members were approached. The pilot study in stage three involved ten project managers with more than five years’ experience working on renewable energy projects in Pakistan. In the last stage, two faculty members and one doctoral student checked grammar and expression. In the end, all the measurement items were retained because Cronbach’s alpha value of more than 0.7 supported the construct’s reliability.

3.3. Sampling and Data Collection

The population for this study comprises managers and staff involved in the construction of renewable energy projects in Pakistan during the COVID-19 pandemic. The sample for this study is taken from the project managers, directors, functional managers, line managers, and staff members of ten wind power projects that were connected to the national grid before June 2022 [59]. The selected wind projects were granted tariffs by NEPRA in 2018. There are two major reasons to select these projects. Firstly, wind power projects are complex projects that require a technical workforce and are exposed to hostile weather conditions. All of these projects are located in Jhimpir, district Thatta, in the Sindh province of Pakistan, and are similar in size, having a capacity of 50 Mega Watt. As such, the hinterland of district Thatta is a remote desert area that offers numerous spatial challenges. Secondly, the construction period of these projects overlapped with the COVID-19 pandemic. Also, Sindh province is a populated province that was severely affected by the pandemic [9]. These reasons made these projects ideal for studying the selected variables in this study.

The process of data collection was initiated in August 2022 and lasted until October 2022. Before proceeding to the final data collection, the head offices of project firms were contacted through email, explaining the significance of the research and the desired number of respondents required to fill out the questionnaire. The head offices of respective projects were not only allowed to contact project officials of various departments, but they also facilitated access to construction sites. As a result, a total of 430 respondents were randomly approached. In response, a total of 370 questionnaires were received, of which 24 were found to be incomplete. The final sample size comprised a total of 345 respondents.

3.4. Demographic Profile

The demographic profile of the sample shows that wind power projects in Pakistan have a significantly lower percentage of female managers (92.01 percent male and 7.98 percent female). As far as the experience level of managers involved in renewable energy projects in Pakistan is concerned, 69.32 percent of managers had experience ranging from five to ten years, whereas a fairly smaller percentage of 10 percent comprised of seasoned managers with more than fifteen years of experience. The outcome also indicates that functional managers comprised the largest share in the sample with 23.94 percent, and project site engineers had the lowest share amongst respondents. The detailed sample characteristics of respondents are presented in

Table 2. Respondent’s demographic.

Characteristics	Category	Frequency	Percentage
Sex	Male	317	92.01
	Female	28	7.98
Working Experience	5–10 years	239	69.32
	10–15 years	71	20.58
	Above 15 years	35	10.08
Positions	Project directors	62	18.90
	Managers	54	15.96
	Functional Manager	88	23.94
	Leaders of team	71	20.58
	Project site engineers	34	10.08
	Other staff	36	10.50
Education	Post-graduate	81	23.52
	Graduate	127	36.97
	Others	137	39.49

.

4. Data Analysis and Results

The data analysis comprised two steps. Before proceeding to the first step to perform the descriptive analysis, the data file was transported to the SPSS software version 24 to check the outliers, missing values, normality, and multi-collinearity. There were no outliers found in the data, whereas the missing values were handled using the imputation method [60]. In the second step, structural equation modeling was deployed using the SMART PLS version 4 software to test the hypotheses. The measurement model was tested first to determine the psychometric properties of the constructs, such as reliability and validity. Then, the structural model was tested using bootstrapping to run the regression analysis and find the path coefficients.

4.1. Measurement Model

The measurement model determines the association of the corresponding construct with the indicator variables [61]. Since this study involved the higher-order construct of adaptive performance, the evaluation of the measurement model comprised two stages. For this purpose, a reflective-reflective model was deployed. This model type was selected because the direction of causal action is from the selected variables to their indicators. Specifically, in the context of adaptive performance, this higher-order construct is posited as a common cause of five lower-order constructs. The first stage evaluated the reliability and validity of five lower-order constructs of adaptive performance with their corresponding items. The repeated indicators approach was deployed at this stage, wherein all the indicators of the lower-order components were also assigned to the higher-order component [62]. The reliability and validity of single-order constructs of project success and COVID-19 were also determined at this stage. However, the second stage of the assessment of the measurement model comprised the evaluation of reliability and validity between the higher-order component of adaptive performance and its lower-order components.

Table 3. Convergent validity and reliability.

Indicators	Loading	CA	CR	AVE
CR (Creativity)		0.906	0.934	0.780
CR1	0.876
CR2	0.883
CR3	0.901
CR4	0.873
RE (Reactivity in the face of emergencies)		0.882	0.918	0.738
RE1	0.853
RE2	0.858
RE3	0.845
RE4	0.879
IA (Interpersonal adaptability)		0.918	0.942	0.803
IA1	0.901
IA2	0.899
IA3	0.894
IA4	0.890
TE (Training Effort)		0.929	0.949	0.824
TE1	0.917
TE2	0.916
TE3	0.899
TE4	0.898
HS (Handling Stress)		0.883	0.927	0.810
HS1	0.899
HS2	0.895
HS3	0.906
COVID-19		0.931	0.940	0.611
CO1	0.788
CO2	0.780
CO3	0.734
CO4	0.835
CO5	0.746
CO6	0.797
CO7	0.768
CO8	0.778
CO9	0.769
CO10	0.814
Project Success		0.921	0.910	0.668
PS1	0.722
PS2	0.769
PS3	0.748
PS4	0.714
PS5	0.760
PS6	0.731
PS7	0.763

Note: Loading, factor loading; CA, Cronbach’s alpha; CR, composite reliability; AVE, average variance extracted.

displays the results of the reliability and validity of the lower-order construct of adaptive performance and the first-order constructs of project success and COVID-19. The internal consistency reliability of all the constructs was determined by both the composite reliability (CR) and Cronbach’s alpha. The values of these measures within the permissible range of 0.7 to 0.95 demonstrate the reliability of the constructs [63]. Any value beyond the 0.95 mark demonstrates that items are redundant and compromise construct validity [61]. Convergent validity refers to the degree of correlation between a measure and alternative measures of the same construct. There is ample support for all the constructs to have convergent validity, as the outer loadings of first-order constructs of adaptive performance were above 0.70 and the average variance extracted (AVE) of each construct was more than 0.50. Discriminant validity refers to the degree to which a construct is truly distinct from other constructs by empirical standards [61]. In this context, the estimate of the true correlation between two constructs is measured by the heterotrait–monotrait ratio (HTMT) of the correlations. The value of HTMT between constructs must be less than 0.85.

Table 4. Discriminant validity, heterotrait–monotrait ratio (HTMT)—Matrix.

No	Factors	1	2	3	4	5	6	7
1	COVID-19
2	CR	0.068
3	HS	0.057	0.645
4	IA	0.078	0.782	0.803
5	PS	0.135	0.330	0.212	0.391
6	RE	0.064	0.723	0.776	0.733	0.231
7	TE	0.241	0.476	0.623	0.635	0.212	0.58

displays the HTMT values of all the constructs, which were less than 0.85, showing ample support for the establishment of discriminant validity. In addition, the values of the variance inflation factor (VIF) of the structural equational modeling were found to be less than 4, as displayed in

Table A1. Collinearity analysis.

Dimension Correlations	VIF
CR1-CR4	All values less than 3.5
RE1-RE4	All values less than 3
IA1-IA4	All values less than 4
TE1-TE4	All values less than 4
HS1-HS3	All values less than 3
CO1-CO10	All values less than 3
PS1-PS7	All values less than 2.5

(see Appendix A). The VIF values above 5 indicate issues of collinearity. At this stage, there were no issues reported regarding collinearity.

After confirming the reliability and validity of constructs, the measurement model of the higher-order construct of adaptive performance was checked for reliability and validity. The values of both Cronbach’s alpha and CR, as mentioned in

Table 5. Convergent validity and reliability of lower-order constructs.

Latent Variable Scores	Outer Loadings	CA	CR	AVE
Adaptive Performance		0.887	0.916	0.688
CR	0.842
RE	0.829
IA	0.915
TE	0.717
HS	0.833

Note: Loading, factor loading; CA, Cronbach’s alpha; CR, composite reliability; AVE, average variance extracted.

, support the internal consistency and reliability of the constructs. The outer loadings of higher-order and lower-order constructs were all above 0.7, whereas the AVE value was 0.688. As these values were above the threshold values, convergent validity was also established [61]. Lastly, the HTMT values were evaluated to assess the discriminant validity of the higher-order constructs. The HTMT values are displayed in

Table 6. Heterotrait–monotrait ratio (HTMT)—Matrix.

No	Factors	1	2	3
1	AP
2	COVID-19	0.115
3	PS	0.334	0.135
4	COVID-19 x AP	0.052	0.051	0.417

, which are all below the 0.85 mark. In addition, the VIF values less than 5 mentioned in

Table A2. Collinearity analysis of lower-order dimensions of adaptive performance.

Lower Order Dimension Correlations	VIF Values
CR	2.290
HS	2.577
IA	3.157
RE	2.387
TE	1.666

(see Appendix A) also testify to the absence of a collinearity issue among dimensions.

The explanatory power of a model is described through the R2 values [63]. A model is considered substantial, moderate, and weak if these values fall within 0.75, 0.50, and 0.25, respectively. The value of R2 displayed in

Table 7. R² and adjusted R² values.

Constructs	R2	Adjusted R2
Project success	0.259	0.249

indicates that this model is moderate in terms of explaining its power among all constructs.

4.2. Descriptive Analysis

The descriptive analysis of the variables is presented in

Table 8. Descriptive statistics.

Variable	Min	Max	Mean	Std Dev
CR	1	5	3.826	1.191
RE	1	5	4.000	1.009
IA	1	5	3.837	1.111
TE	1	5	3.749	1.174
HS	1	5	3.901	2.538
PS	1	5	4.282	0.726
COVID-19	1	5	3.224	1.077

. It details the pattern of data under examination through key measures of mean and standard deviation on a five-point Likert scale.

4.3. Hypothesis Testing

After testing the measurement model’s reliability and validity, as well as evidence supporting the explanatory power of the model, the statistical significance and relevance of the path coefficients were tested. The analysis results, as mentioned in

Table 9. Path Coefficients.

Hypothesis	Relationship	Coefficient	Mean	SD	T Statistic	p Value	Confidence Interval		Findings
							Lower Limit	Upper Limit
H1	AP-PS	0.289	0.291	0.064	4.542	0.000	0.166	0.416	Significant
H2	COVID19-AP and PS	−0.396	−0.375	0.122	3.255	0.001	−0.540	−0.017	Significant

, reveal that path estimates were statistically significant, and their values fall within the −1 to +1 range.

Hypothesis H1 assumes that the adaptive performance of employees positively influences the project’s success. The results with a β value of 0.289 falling within the confidence interval limit with a p-value of 0.000 and a t-value of 4.542 testify the H1 hypothesis. The β value of 0.289 demonstrates that a unit change in adaptive performance can bring a 28 percent change in the project’s success. The second hypothesis presumes that the relationship between adaptive performance and project success weakens when the impact of COVID-19 increases. The β value = −0.396 within the confidence interval range as well as the t value = 3.255 and p-value < 0.05 corroborate that COVID-19 moderates the relationship between adaptive performance and the project’s success. The moderating role of COVID-19 is illustrated by the interaction plot in Figure 2. The green line demonstrates the high impact of COVID-19. The slope of the green line indicates that project success declines even with an increase in the adaptive performance of employees.

5. Discussion

Prior studies indicate the contribution of human-related factors to making projects successful. Other than the task and contextual performance, adaptability is the nuance that makes a project successful, but its importance remains oblivious to the project stakeholders. While this study highlights the importance of adaptive performance as a key CSF in neglected renewable energy projects, the existing literature emphasizes project agility, adaptive performance, and other contextual factors in the context of numerous industries such as business process re-engineering, new product development, innovative engineering, and healthcare projects [22,23,55]. In addition, numerous studies have highlighted the impact of several external factors, such as political, economic, and technical, on the success of renewable energy development [64,65,66]. But there is an absence of theory-driven empirical research that advances in explaining the impact of external sources in the form of the psychological impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the workforce. This study addresses these gaps and provides valuable insight not only for the academic literature but also for project firms involved in renewable energy projects globally.

The results reveal that the adaptive performance of the workforce has a significant and positive relationship with the success of wind power projects in Pakistan. The results of the first hypothesis also illustrated in Figure 3 converge with prior studies and show that the implementation of renewable energy projects is also subjected to uncertainty, complexity, and dynamic work conditions, just like in other sectors. Under such circumstances, adaptive performance is a desired trait expected among individuals to implement projects. Radhakrishnan et al. [23] explored and confirmed support in favor of project agility and success of projects with the mediating role of adaptive performance with data from multiple projects. Similarly, Loughlin and Priyadarshini [22] also highlighted that dealing with crisis situations, work stress, creativity in solving problems, and interpersonal adaptability are the desired traits in managers to ensure adaptive performance. The adaptive performance of the workforce is linked with their behavioral response, which is measured using five lower-order constructs in this study: solving problems creatively, reacting to emergencies and unpredictable solutions, constant training and learning, interpersonal adaptability, and handling work stress [15]. The social cognitive theory explains the unique way in which the behavior of individuals is shaped, with implications for the adaptive performance of the workforce in renewable energy projects. This theory posits that human agency to adjust and thrive in the face of changing circumstances occurs as a dynamic and reciprocal interaction between individuals, their behavior, and the environment. While this triadic relationship not only signifies the behavioral attributes of individuals as a starting point of human agency, it also draws attention to several contextual and project-specific factors such as job characteristics, decision-making autonomy, job uncertainty, social ties, task interdependence, support from coworkers, learning climate, an organization’s vision, and support for its’ projects.

The results of the second hypothesis testify that the psycho-social impact on the health and work-life balance of individuals caused by COVID-19 weakens the association of adaptive performance with the success of wind power projects in Pakistan. The results of this study indicate that the high degree of uncertainty associated with the COVID-19 pandemic restricts the capabilities of the workforce to solve problems creatively, react to unforeseen situations arising from tasks, and handle work stress. The social cognitive theory postulates that the behavior of an individual is shaped by the environment, which in turn has a reciprocating influence on the person’s cognitions and behavior. It holds true, particularly in this case, wherein the workforce experienced an external force in the form of the COVID-19 pandemic. There is a reported impact on the physical and emotional well-being, overall quality of life, and threats to job security of individuals in the aftermath of COVID-19 [12,53,67]. However, the most recent research by Bajaba et al. [55] validates the results of this study by highlighting that the ability of a manager to lead during times of crisis is determined by the adaptive personality. As such, these self-regulative capabilities of individuals, referred to as self-efficacy by the social cognitive theory, are a driving force to compel an individual to take on challenges and remain resilient in difficult situations.

6. Conclusions

The nature and scale of the complexities associated with the renewable energy sector are different from projects in other sectors. The workforce for these projects faces myriad complexities, such as the arrival of new technologies, equipment, and systems. This requires the workforce to continuously update their knowledge and skills. In addition, the challenges of working in remote locations expose the workforce to logistical challenges, isolation, and adverse weather conditions, necessitating them to adapt and overcome such hurdles. This study finds out the impact of the adaptive performance of the workforce on the success of wind power projects in Pakistan. It also examines the moderating psychosocial impact of COVID-19 on adaptive performance and the success of these projects. By doing so, this study draws attention to a critical success factor. This study highlights that the ability of the workforce to respond to unforeseen situations creatively, resilience to stress due to emergencies, their urge to stay updated with the latest knowledge and project management procedures, as well as keeping an open relationship with peers, play a significant role in ensuring the success of these projects.

The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted the whole horizon of the external environment and redefined challenges affecting the implementation of renewable energy projects. Due to the pandemic, energy projects faced a high rejection rate of financing, shortage of labor, reduced morale of project teams, disruption in the supply chain, and shortage of materials. But a major impact of the pandemic was felt at the individual level, with project managers and the workforce experiencing the worst psycho-social and health impacts for the first time. This study supports that the effects of this extraordinary situation were also felt across the wind power projects in Pakistan, with implications for the way project personnel behaved to perform their duties. In addition, the study finds that the impact of anxiety, stress, and uncertainty caused by COVID-19 restricts the capability of the workforce to deal with the complexities arising from the projects.

This study adds to the literature by highlighting that the adaptive performance of the workforce is as important for renewable energy projects as it is for agile IT projects. In addition, this study highlights that adaptive performance is dependent on external impacts on the workforce and highlights a key area of project performance that can be timely addressed to enhance the project’s success. Lastly, this study has implications for project firms to consider external environmental factors to expedite projects and assist governments in meeting sustainable development goals.

6.1. Study Implications

With empirical evidence gathered from wind power projects in Pakistan, this study has multiple theoretical implications that support the role of adaptive performance in renewable energy projects. Firstly, this study provides an understanding of the multitude of individual behaviors involved that qualify to demonstrate adaptive performance and the ensuing impact on the success of the project. Secondly, this study highlights the applicability of the social cognitive theory not only within the complex, demanding, and evolving circumstances of renewable energy projects but also under the stressful working conditions created by the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. In doing so, this study underlines that human agency is the outcome of the interwoven causal relationship between human-specific factors and external environmental events that have an impact on the way individuals adapt to changes.

From the perspective of managers and staff, project firms can create policies and conducive environments that nurture adaptive behaviors, promote continuous learning, and enhance the performance of individuals. Firstly, project firms need to equip their personnel with the necessary skills to enhance the cognitive abilities of individuals to deal with unforeseen issues efficiently. This requires tailoring regular training and development programs, seminars, and courses not only for project managers but also for the technical workforce deployed on site. Secondly, due to the rapid changes in technology and market trends, projects are required to be flexible enough to absorb changes in project design and planning. This entails crafting a policy that calls for periodic reviews and adjustments to avert future risks. Thirdly, project firms need to nurture a culture of continuous learning and interpersonal adaptability within project teams and organizations. Such policies will be particularly useful to share the best practices across the whole renewable energy sector. Lastly, at the national level, close collaboration of the host government with the project firms is required while preparing the policies aimed at curbing the effects of pandemics or local epidemics and subsiding the psychosocial impacts on the workforce.

6.2. Limitations and Avenues for Future Research

Despite this study’s substantial contributions, numerous shortcomings may be addressed in future research. The complexities and challenges vary with the type, size, and nature of the project. The data for this study was limited to only wind power plants. Although results can be generalized to other renewable projects, they are specific to only wind projects. Secondly, the study argues that adaptive performance contributes to the success of the project. However, the extent to which this factor has a bearing on the success of the project can only be known when a project case is investigated by considering both project-related and external environmental factors. Thirdly, the inclusion of the role of the personality type of project managers as well as the organizational support in the study would also uncover the desired project manager traits and the extent of use of policies. Lastly, academic research is warranted on the way the COVID-19 pandemic altered the political and economic landscape and impacted the adaptive capacities of the workforce.