Investigation of Fire Weather Danger under a Changing Climate at High Resolution in Greece
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. WRF Model Setup
2.2. Calculation of the FWI and Other Indices
3. Results and Discussion
3.1. Fire Weather Index Projections
3.2. Initial Spread Index Projections
4. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Components of CFFWI System | |
---|---|
FFMC | Fine Fuel Moisture Code (FFMC) is a numeric rating of the moisture content of the smallest forest fuels (surface litter, leaves, needles and small twigs) |
DMC | Duff Moisture Code (DMC) represents the moisture content of loosely compacted, decomposing organic matter weighing about 5 kg/m2 when dry. It assesses fuel consumption in moderate duff layers and medium-size woody material at mid-afternoon |
DC | Drought Code (DC) indicates the moisture content of deep compact layer of organic matter weighing about 25 kg/m2 when dry |
ISI | Initial Spread Index (ISI) calculates the expected rate of fire spread and is the product of wind and fine fuel moisture functions |
BUI | Buildup Index (BUI) estimates the total amount of fuel available to the spreading fire by combining the DMC and the DC fuel moisture codes |
FWI | ISI and BUI codes are used in the calculation of the Fire Weather Index. It is a measure of fire intensity in the form of energy output rate per unit length of fire front |
Classification Proposed by EFFIS | Percentile Classification |
---|---|
Very low (<5.2) | |
Low (5.2–11.2) | Low 25th percentiles |
Moderate (11.2–21.3) | Moderate 50th percentiles |
High (21.3–38) | High 75th percentiles |
Very high (38–50) | Extreme 90tth percentiles |
Extreme (≥50) |
Number of Total Counts per 25 Years (in %) | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
RCP4.5 | RCP8.5 | ||||
ConsecDays | HIST | 2025–2049 | 2075–2099 | 2025–2049 | 2075–2099 |
0–5 | 95.74 | 71.83 | 79.30 | 72.99 | 75.72 |
6–10 | 3.72 | 16.45 | 12.90 | 15.92 | 14.47 |
11–20 | 0.52 | 7.25 | 5.19 | 7.58 | 6.42 |
21–30 | 0.02 | 2.60 | 1.64 | 2.28 | 2.12 |
31–40 | 0.00 | 1.24 | 0.66 | 0.84 | 0.84 |
41+ | 0.00 | 0.62 | 0.31 | 0.39 | 0.43 |
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Politi, N.; Vlachogiannis, D.; Sfetsos, A.; Gounaris, N.; Varela, V. Investigation of Fire Weather Danger under a Changing Climate at High Resolution in Greece. Sustainability 2023, 15, 2498. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15032498
Politi N, Vlachogiannis D, Sfetsos A, Gounaris N, Varela V. Investigation of Fire Weather Danger under a Changing Climate at High Resolution in Greece. Sustainability. 2023; 15(3):2498. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15032498
Chicago/Turabian StylePoliti, Nadia, Diamando Vlachogiannis, Athanasios Sfetsos, Nikolaos Gounaris, and Vassiliki Varela. 2023. "Investigation of Fire Weather Danger under a Changing Climate at High Resolution in Greece" Sustainability 15, no. 3: 2498. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15032498