Climate Change Trends for the Urban Heat Island Intensities in Two Major Portuguese Cities
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Study Areas
2.2. Urban Heat Island Intensities Derived from UrbClim Data between 2008 and 2017
2.3. Urban Heat Island Intensities Derived from EURO-CORDEX Data between 2021–2050 under RCP8.5
2.4. Trend Analysis
3. Results
3.1. Mean and Maximum 2 m Temperatures Statistically Significant Trends under RCP8.5 for Mainland Portugal
3.2. Seasonal and Day-Night Evolution of the Urban Heat Island Intensities between 2008–2017
3.3. Seasonal and Day-Night Statistically Significant Trends Projections for the Urban Heat Island Intensities between 2021–2050 under RCP8.5
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
Appendix A
References
- Oke, T.R. The energetic basis of the urban heat island. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 1982, 108, 1–24. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Oke, T.R.; Johnson, G.T.; Steyn, D.G.; Watson, I.D. Simulation of surface urban heat islands under ‘ideal’ conditions at night part 2: Diagnosis of causation. Boundary-Layer Meteorol. 1991, 56, 339–358. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Kim, Y.H.; Baik, J.J. Maximum urban heat island intensity in Seoul. J. Appl. Meteorol. 2002, 41, 651–659. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Wilby, R.L. Past and projected trends in London s urban heat island. Weather 2003, 58, 251–260. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Yang, P.; Ren, G.; Liu, W. Spatial and Temporal Characteristics of Beijing Urban Heat Island Intensity. J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim. 2013, 52, 1803–1816. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Zhao, L.; Lee, X.; Smith, R.B.; Oleson, K. Strong contributions of local background climate to urban heat islands. Nature 2014, 511, 216–219. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Santamouris, M. Analyzing the heat island magnitude and characteristics in one hundred Asian and Australian cities and regions. Sci. Total Environ. 2015, 512–513, 582–598. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Hu, X.-M.; Xue, M. Influence of Synoptic Sea-Breeze Fronts on the Urban Heat Island Intensity in Dallas–Fort Worth, Texas. Mon. Weather. Rev. 2016, 144, 1487–1507. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Hu, X.-M.; Xue, M.; Klein, P.M.; Illston, B.G.; Chen, S. Analysis of Urban Effects in Oklahoma City using a Dense Surface Observing Network. J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol. 2016, 55, 723–741. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Yang, J.; Kumar, D.L.M.; Pyrgou, A.; Chong, A.; Santamouris, M.; Kolokotsa, D.; Lee, S.E. Green and cool roofs’ urban heat island mitigation potential in tropical climate. Sol. Energy 2018, 173, 597–609. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Synnefa, A.; Karlessi, T.; Gaitani, N.; Santamouris, M.; Assimakopoulos, D.N.; Papakatsikas, C. Experimental testing of cool colored thin layer asphalt and estimation of its potential to improve the urban microclimate. Build. Environ. 2011, 46, 38–44. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Oberndorfer, E.; Lundholm, J.; Bass, B.; Coffman, R.R.; Doshi, H.; Dunnett, N.; Gaffin, S.; Köhler, M.; Liu, K.K.Y.; Rowe, B. Green Roofs as Urban Ecosystems: Ecological Structures, Functions, and Services. Bioscience 2007, 57, 823–833. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Alonso, M.S.; Labajo, J.L.; Fidalgo, M.R. Characteristics of the urban heat island in the city of Salamanca, Spain. Atmósfera 2003, 16, 137–148. [Google Scholar]
- Alonso, M.S.; Fidalgo, M.R.; Labajo, J.L. The urban heat island in Salamanca (Spain) and its relationship to meteorological parameters. Clim. Res. 2007, 34, 39–46. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Lee, D.O. Urban Warming?—An analysis of recent trends in london’s heat island. Weather 1992, 47, 50–56. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Peng, S.; Piao, S.; Ciais, P.; Friedlingstein, P.; Ottle, C.; Bréon, F.-M.; Nan, H.; Zhou, L.; Myneni, R.B. Surface Urban Heat Island Across 419 Global Big Cities. Environ. Sci. Technol. 2012, 46, 696–703. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Arnfield, A.J. Two decades of urban climate research: A review of turbulence, exchanges of energy and water, and the urban heat island. Int. J. Clim. 2003, 23, 1–26. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Morini, E.; Touchaei, A.G.; Rossi, F.; Cotana, F.; Akbari, H. Evaluation of albedo enhancement to mitigate impacts of urban heat island in Rome (Italy) using WRF meteorological model. Urban Climatol. 2018, 24, 551–566. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Heaviside, C.; Macintyre, H.; Vardoulakis, S. The Urban Heat Island: Implications for Health in a Changing Environment. Curr. Environ. Health Rep. 2017, 4, 296–305. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Steeneveld, G.J.; Koopmans, S.; Heusinkveld, B.G.; Van Hove, L.W.A.; Holtslag, B. Quantifying urban heat island effects and human comfort for cities of variable size and urban morphology in the Netherlands. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 2011, 116. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Asimakopoulos, D.; Santamouris, M.; Farrou, I.; Laskari, M.; Saliari, M.; Zanis, G.; Giannakidis, G.; Tigas, K.; Kapsomenakis, J.; Douvis, C.; et al. Modelling the energy demand projection of the building sector in Greece in the 21st century. Energy Build. 2012, 49, 488–498. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Costanzo, V.; Evola, G.; Marletta, L. Energy savings in buildings or UHI mitigation? Comparison between green roofs and cool roofs. Energy Build. 2016, 114, 247–255. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Kolokotroni, M.; Wines, C.; Babiker, R.M.; Da Silva, B.H. Cool and Green Roofs for Storage Buildings in Various Climates. Procedia Eng. 2016, 169, 350–358. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Andrade, C.; Mourato, S.; Ramos, J. Heating and Cooling Degree-Days Climate Change Projections for Portugal. Atmosphere 2021, 12, 715. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Giannakopoulos, C.; Hadjinicolaou, P.; Zerefos, C.; Demosthenous, G. Changing Energy Requirements in the Mediterranean under Changing Climatic Conditions. Energies 2009, 2, 805–815. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- Zittis, G.; Hadjinicolaou, P.; Klangidou, M.; Proestos, Y.; Lelieveld, J. A multi-model, multi-scenario, and multi-domain analysis of regional climate projections for the Mediterranean. Reg. Environ. Chang. 2019, 19, 2621–2635. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- Hamdi, R.; Kusaka, H.; Doan, Q.-V.; Cai, P.; He, H.; Luo, G.; Kuang, W.; Caluwaerts, S.; Duchêne, F.; Van Schaeybroek, B.; et al. The State-of-the-Art of Urban Climate Change Modeling and Observations. Earth Syst. Environ. 2020, 4, 631–646. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Masson, V.; Lemonsu, A.; Hidalgo, J.; Voogt, J. Urban Climates and Climate Change. Annu. Rev. Environ. Resour. 2020, 45, 411–444. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Alcoforado, M.J.; Andrade, H. Nocturnal urban heat island in Lisbon (Portugal): Main features and modelling attempts. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 2005, 84, 151–159. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Nogueira, M.; Soares, P.M.M. A surface modelling approach for attribution and disentanglement of the effects of global warming from urbanization in temperature extremes: Application to Lisbon. Environ. Res. Lett. 2019, 14, 114023. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Teixeira, J.; Fallmann, J.; Carvalho, A.; Rocha, A. Surface to boundary layer coupling in the urban area of Lisbon comparing different urban canopy models in WRF. Urban Clim. 2019, 28, 100454. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Founda, D.; Pierros, F.; Petrakis, M.; Zerefos, C. Interdecadal variations and trends of the Urban Heat Island in Athens (Greece) and its response to heat waves. Atmos. Res. 2015, 161–162, 1–13. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Benas, N.; Chrysoulakis, N.; Cartalis, C. Trends of urban surface temperature and heat island characteristics in the Mediterranean. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 2016, 130, 807–816. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Lee, K.; Kim, Y.; Sung, H.C.; Ryu, J.; Jeon, S.W. Trend Analysis of Urban Heat Island Intensity According to Urban Area Change in Asian Mega Cities. Sustainability 2020, 12, 112. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- Urban Climate Model UrbClim Provided by the COPERNICUS Climate Data Store. Available online: https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.c6459d3a (accessed on 1 June 2022).
- van der Schriek, T.; Varotsos, K.V.; Giannakopoulos, C.; Founda, D. Projected Future Temporal Trends of Two Different Urban Heat Islands in Athens (Greece) under Three Climate Change Scenarios: A Statistical Approach. Atmosphere 2020, 11, 637. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Censos. 2021. Available online: https://www.ine.pt/scripts/db_censos_2021.html (accessed on 1 June 2022).
- Andrade, C.; Fonseca, A.; Santos, J.A. Are Land Use Options in Viticulture and Oliviculture in Agreement with Bioclimatic Shifts in Portugal? Land 2021, 10, 869. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Hooyberghs, H.; Berckmans, J.; Lauwaet, D.; Lefebre, F.; De Ridder, K. Climate Variables for Cities in Europe from 2008 to 2017, Version 1.0, Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) Climate Data Store (CDS). 2019. Available online: https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/dataset/10.24381/cds.c6459d3a (accessed on 28 March 2022).
- Copernicus Corinne Land Cover 2012, 100 m Resolution. Available online: https://land.copernicus.eu/pan-european/corine-land-cover (accessed on 1 March 2022).
- Vrac, M.; Drobinski, P.; Merlo, A.; Herrmann, M.; Lavaysse, C.; Li, L.; Somot, S. Dynamical and statistical downscaling of the French Mediterranean climate: Uncertainty assessment. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 2012, 12, 2769–2784. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- Christensen, O.B.; Gutowski, W.J.; Nikulin, G.; Legutke, S. CORDEX Archive Design. 2014. Available online: https://is-enes-data.github.io/cordex_archive_specifications.pdf (accessed on 22 March 2022).
- Weedon, G.P.; Balsamo, G.; Bellouin, N.; Gomes, S.; Best, M.J.; Viterbo, P. The WFDEI meteorological forcing data set: WATCH Forcing Data methodology applied to ERA-Interim reanalysis data. Water Resour. Res. 2014, 50, 7505–7514. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- EURO-CORDEX Provided by the COPERNICUS Climate Data Store. Available online: https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/dataset/10.24381/cds.8be2c014?tab=overview (accessed on 1 March 2022).
- CLIM4ENERGY Project Datasets Provided by the COPERNICUS Climate Data Store. Available online: https://climate.copernicus.eu/clim4energy (accessed on 28 March 2022).
- WFDEI Meteorological Forcing Data. Available online: https://rda.ucar.edu/datasets/ds314.2/ (accessed on 28 March 2022).
- Lehmann, E.L. Nonparametrics, Statistical Methods Based on Ranks; Holden.Day, Inc.: San Francisco, CA, USA, 1975. [Google Scholar]
- Sneyers, R. On the Statistical Analysis of Series of Observations; Technical Note Nº 143, WMO, Nº 415; World Meteorological Organization: Geneva, Switzerland, 1990. [Google Scholar]
- Theil, H. A rank-invariant method of linear and polynomial regression analysis. In Henri Theil’s Contributions to Economics and Econometrics. Advanced Studies in Theoretical and Applied Econometrics; Raj, B., Koerts, J., Eds.; Springer: Dordrecht, The Netherlands, 1992; Volume 23, pp. 345–381. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Sen, P.K. Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall’s tau. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 1968, 63, 1379–1389. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Philandras, C.M.; Metaxas, D.A.; Nastos, P. Climate Variability and Urbanization in Athens. Theor. Appl. Clim. 1999, 63, 65–72. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Miao, S.; Chen, F.; LeMone, M.A.; Tewari, M.; Li, Q.; Wang, Y. An Observational and Modeling Study of Characteristics of Urban Heat Island and Boundary Layer Structures in Beijing. J. Appl. Meteorol. Clim. 2009, 48, 484–501. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Fenner, D.; Meier, F.; Scherer, D.; Polze, A. Spatial and temporal air temperature variability in Berlin, Germany, during the years 2001–2010. Urban Clim. 2014, 10, 308–331. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Akbari, H.; Konopacki, S.; Pomerantz, M. Cooling energy savings potential of reflective roofs for residential and commercial buildings in the United States. Energy 1999, 24, 391–407. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Levinson, R.; Akbari, H.; Reilly, J.C. Cooler tile-roofed buildings with near-infrared-reflective non-white coatings. Build. Environ. 2007, 42, 2591–2605. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
Season | Nighttime | Mean | Daytime | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lisbon | Winter | Max | 3.9 | 1.9 | 1.4 |
Min | −2.9 | −2.2 | −1.7 | ||
Summer | Max | 2.8 | 1.8 | 1.4 | |
Min | −2.8 | −2.7 | −3.9 | ||
Porto | Winter | Max | 3.5 | 2.2 | 1.6 |
Min | −2.5 | −1.9 | −1.7 | ||
Summer | Max | 2.9 | 1.8 | 1.5 | |
Min | −2.2 | −2.2 | −2.3 |
Disclaimer/Publisher’s Note: The statements, opinions and data contained in all publications are solely those of the individual author(s) and contributor(s) and not of MDPI and/or the editor(s). MDPI and/or the editor(s) disclaim responsibility for any injury to people or property resulting from any ideas, methods, instructions or products referred to in the content. |
© 2023 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
Share and Cite
Andrade, C.; Fonseca, A.; Santos, J.A. Climate Change Trends for the Urban Heat Island Intensities in Two Major Portuguese Cities. Sustainability 2023, 15, 3970. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15053970
Andrade C, Fonseca A, Santos JA. Climate Change Trends for the Urban Heat Island Intensities in Two Major Portuguese Cities. Sustainability. 2023; 15(5):3970. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15053970
Chicago/Turabian StyleAndrade, Cristina, André Fonseca, and João A. Santos. 2023. "Climate Change Trends for the Urban Heat Island Intensities in Two Major Portuguese Cities" Sustainability 15, no. 5: 3970. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15053970