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Article

Confidence in the Future and Adolescent Problem Behavior

by
Yanwen Ouyang
1,2,
Xizheng Xu
1 and
Zirui Ouyang
1,*
1
Department of Management, Hunan Police Academy, Changsha 410138, China
2
School of Educational Science, Hunan Normal University, Changsha 410081, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Sustainability 2023, 15(6), 5191; https://doi.org/10.3390/su15065191
Submission received: 7 February 2023 / Revised: 3 March 2023 / Accepted: 13 March 2023 / Published: 15 March 2023
Browse Figure
Versions Notes

Abstract

:
“Low expectation of success” is proposed as a factor in relation to problem behavior in the comprehensive theoretical model of problem behavior (CTMPB). Based on the framework of CTMPB, this study aimed to further examine the association between confidence in the future (including parental confidence in the adolescent future and adolescent self-confidence in the future in this study) and problem behavior. A nationwide representative sample data from the China Education Panel Survey (CEPS) were used in this study. A total of 8328 middle school students and their parents were included. Among the students, 4081 (49.0%) were boys, the mean age was 14.53 years (SD = 0.70); among the parents, 3908 (46.9%) were male, the mean age was 41.15 years (SD = 5.14). The results reveal that parental confidence in adolescent future (PCAF) can play a role in adolescent problem behavior through adolescent perceived parental confidence in adolescent future (APPCAF) and adolescent self-confidence in the future (ASF). Low levels of both PCAF and ASF are vulnerability risk factors in adolescent problem behavior. Lowering PCAF and ASF might increase the likelihood of engaging in problem behavior. However, this study was based on cross-sectional data only and is required to be supported by further experimental or longitudinal studies.

1. Introduction

Adolescence is an important period of growth and development, but also a stage full of contradictions. Adolescents generally desire to be recognized, freedom, and individuality, but at the same time, they are not mature enough emotionally, intellectually, and socially. As a result, adolescents are easily involved in problem behavior. Problem behavior is manifested as non-compliance with social norms, maladaptation to the society [1,2], and even harm to the community and society, which is defined as abnormal behavior that impedes social adaptation, such as delinquent behavior, rule-breaking behavior, and aggressive behavior [3], and affects teenagers mental health and hinders their development [4,5,6,7].
Confidence in the future refers to one’s various beliefs in their abilities and capabilities, and reflects one’s self-confidence for their future attainment [8]. Confidence in the future, as a personality trait, is a confidence based on present conditions but situated in the future [9]. In positive psychology, confidence in the future is considered one dimension of optimism [10,11]. Previous research on confidence in the future mainly focused on the association between high levels of confidence in the future and positive results, such as academic achievement [12,13,14], abilities [15,16], health [17,18,19], and life satisfaction [11,20].
However, the role of confidence in the future seems to go far beyond that. The CTMPB proposes that “low expectation of success” is an important vulnerability risk factor in adolescent problem behavior [21], and recent studies found that confidence in the future, as a manifestation of expectation of success, might be related to adolescent problem behavior [22,23]. Thus, in order to provide support to the solutions of adolescent problem behavior, the present study aims to identify the association between ASF and problem behavior, and further explore the association between PCAF and problem behavior based on CTMPB.

1.1. The CTMPB

The CTMPB was established by Jessor et al. in 2003, and was developed based on two theories: the problem behavior theory and the two-factor theory. CTMPB absorbs the ideas of positive psychology, pays attention to the prevention and intervention of problem behavior, and holds that adolescent problem behavior generally manifests in a form of a “syndrome”, so should be studied holistically [23]. CTMPB also reflects the view of ecosystem theory, which argues that there are multiple levels of factors affecting adolescent problems. Therefore, CTMPB went a step forward from the problem behavior theory and two factor theory [3].
A risk-protection model was developed from a social psychological perspective in the CTMPB, which included three risks, namely, model, opportunity, and vulnerability risk; and three protections, namely, model, control, and support protection. These measures include not only those at the individual level but also at multiple social background level. Protective factor reduces engaging in problem behavior, while risk factor increases it [24]. Protective factors may play an indirect role in problem behavior by buffering or moderating risk factor [21].

1.2. PCAF and Adolescent Problem Behavior

Confidence in somebody’s future refers to an individual’s perception and views on somebody’s future situation based on evaluation of abilities and conditions and so on [8,25]. PCAF refers to parental perception and views on adolescent future situation based on their comprehensive evaluation of the internal factors such as the adolescent’s abilities, potential, and personality, and external factors such as family economic conditions, available support, etc. PCAF is certainly a factor affecting parents’ attitude as well as behaviors towards adolescents [26,27].
According to CTMPB, situation system is one of the two important systems related to adolescent problem behavior. Situational system factor is distal variable, which plays an indirect role in problem behavior. The situation system factor is usually derived from the social environment of adolescent daily life, and family is an important domain (others include peers, school, and neighborhood) [21]. This view is also consistent with the ecological systems theory, which holds that household–level factors, apart from individual–level factors, are associated with adolescent problem behavior [28]. It is reasonable to assume that PCAF is a factor related to adolescent problem behavior.
As mentioned above, there are three protections in CTMPB, namely, model, support, and control protection [21]. Parental parenting behaviors must be influenced by PCAF [26,27]. For example, resources and conditions provided by parents for the adolescent may actually become “support protection” in adolescent problem behavior, and parental monitoring of adolescents may actually become “controls protection” against adolescent problem behavior [3]. Thus, according to CTMPB, the ecological systems theory, and the above-mentioned studies, it is reasonable to propose the following hypothesis.
Hypothesis 1 (H1).
PCAF significantly negatively predicts adolescent problem behavior.

1.3. The Mediating Role of ASF

According to CTMPB, another important system related to adolescent problem behavior is personality system. Personality system variables are social cognition factor, including expectations, attitudes, beliefs, and other values. In the personality system, “low expectation of success” has been considered to be vulnerability risk factor [21]. However, not all personality system factors are related to problem behavior, only when they make an impact on problem behavior might they be risk or protective factors [24].
A study conducted by Centurion-Cabral et al. indicated that self-confidence is a significant predictor of aggression [22]. In addition, one of our recent studies found that ASF, as a manifestation of “success expectations”, is significantly correlated with problem behavior. This study aimed to examine the influence of family socioeconomic status on adolescent problem behavior. The participants in this study were 6888 middle school students. Among them, 3546 (51.5%) were boys, and the average age was 14.50 years (SD = 0.68). The result of the study reveals that ASF negatively predicts adolescent problem behavior (β = −0.162, p < 0.001) [23].
Meanwhile, ASF is influenced by the interaction with their parents [16]. Self-confidence is related to self-efficacy [25], and self-confidence has often been conceptualized and measured as “self-efficacy” [29]. Self-efficacy is the level of belief in one’s own ability to accomplish tasks and achieve goals [30], and reflects someone’s self-confidence for their future attainment [31]. Bandura’s self-efficacy theory argues that self-efficacy can be improved by four aspects, and one of them is verbal persuasion, including praise and encouragement (the other three factors are successful performances, vicarious experience, and arousal) [32]. Accordingly, parents’ praise and encouragement, which are related to PCAF, might become the “persuasion” factor, and make an impact on adolescent self-efficacy (namely, self-confidence in the future). Thus, from CTMPB and Bandura’s self-efficacy theory, it is reasonable to propose the following hypothesis.
Hypothesis 2 (H2).
Adolescent self-confidence in the future plays a mediating role between (PCAF) and problem behavior.

1.4. The Mediating Role of APPCAF

The CTMPB is an explanatory model of adolescent problem behavior from the perspective of social psychology. Hence, the CTMPB focuses primarily on social psychological factors or factors related to them, and most of the variables taken into account are social psychological factors and variables that adolescents can actually perceive. From the perspective of social psychology, the external environmental factors that are taken into account should first be perceived by adolescents themselves [21].
There is no doubt that all of personality system factors are psychological. In addition, actually, “situational system” factors are also social psychological factors or are related to them. The “situational system” in CTMPB is an improvement based on the “perceived environmental system” in problem behavior theory, and refers to the external factors that adolescents perceive or could perceive from their families, peers, schools, and communities [21].
According to the problem behavior theory, the “perceived environmental system” plays an intermediary role between the real environment (such as parental ideology, family atmosphere, peer influence, and media influence) and personality system, as well as between the real environment and behavior system (namely, adolescent problem behavior) [33]. Accordingly, it is reasonable to infer that APPCAF may also be a mediating factor between the PCAF and ASF, as well as between PCAF and adolescent problem behavior. Thus, according to the CTMPB and the problem behavior theory, it is reasonable to propose the hypothesis as follows.
Hypothesis 3 (H3).
APPCAF plays a mediating role between PCAF and ASF.
Hypothesis 4 (H4).
APPCAF plays a mediating role between PCAF and problem behavior.

2. Methods

2.1. Participants

We used the data from CEPS (2014–2015). CEPS is one of the survey items of the China Survey and Data Center of Renmin University of China, which used multistage proportional probability sampling (PPS) to select participants, and 438 classes in 112 schools were selected across the country. Due to the missing data, a total of 8328 middle school students and their parents were finally included in this study. Among students, 4081 (49.0%) were male, 4247 (51.0%) were female, and their average age was 14.53 years (SD = 0.70); among parents, 3908 (46.9%) were male, 4420 (53.1%) were female, and their average age was 41.15 years (SD = 5.14).

2.2. Measures

2.2.1. Adolescent Problem Behavior

Adolescent problem behavior was measured by the following 10 questions from the 2014–2015 questionnaire for students: “Have you done the following behaviors in the past year? fighting/swearing or using the F-word/quarreling/bullying little classmates/terrible temper/scatterbrained/truanting/cheating in exam or copying other’s homework/drinking or smoking/going to internet cafes or game arcades”. A five-point scale was used: 1 = “never”; 2 = “occasionally”; 3 = “sometimes”; 4 = “often”; 5 = “always”.

2.2.2. PCAF

PCAF was measured by the following question from the 2014–2015 parent questionnaire of the CEPS, “Do you have confidence in your children’s future?” A four-point scale was used: 1 = “no confidence at all”, 2 = “less confident”, 3 = “comparative confidence”, and 4 = “very confident”. The score represents the level of PCAF.

2.2.3. APPCAF

APPCAF was measured by the following question from the 2014–2015 student questionnaire of the CEPS, “Do your parents have confidence in your future?” A four-point scale was used: 1 = “no confidence at all”, 2 = “less confident”, 3 = “comparative confidence”, and 4 = “very confident”. The score represents level of APPCAF.

2.2.4. ASF

ASF was measured by the following question from the 2014–2015 student questionnaire of the CEPS, “Do you have confidence in your future?” A four-point scale was used: 1 = “no confidence at all”, 2 = “less confident”, 3 = “comparative confidence”, and 4 = “very confident”. The score represents level of ASF.

2.2.5. Parental Relationship

Parental relationship was measured by the following question from the 2014–2015 student questionnaire of the CEPS: “Is the relationship between your parents good?” Respondents choose: yes = 1 and no = 2. We reversed the score of the respondents, and keep the score represents quality of parental relationship.

2.3. Data Analysis

We used SPSS 26.0 and PROCESS V3.5, and select Model 6 in PROCESS V3.5 to test. The data analysis includes three parts: descriptive statistics and correlation, regression model analysis, and mediating role analysis.

2.3.1. Descriptive Statistics and Correlations

The results of descriptive statistics and correlations analysis are presented in Table 1, which shows that all variables are significantly correlated. Adolescent problem behavior is negatively correlated with PCAF, APPCAF, and ASF. There are two high correlation coefficients, the highest one is between APPCAF and ASF (0.570, p < 0.001), the following one is between PCAF and APPCAF (0.486, p < 0.001).
Previous research found that “gender” and “parental relationship” are factors in adolescent problem behavior [34,35,36]. Therefore, in this study, we controlled parental relationship and gender as covariables.

2.3.2. Regression Model Analysis

According to the result of correlation analysis, it is reasonable to further test the mediating role of APPCAF and ASF [37], then we used the PROCESS Model 6 to test the role of mediating [38]. The result of regression model analysis is presented in Table 2, and there are four equations in it. From Equation (1), the association between PCAF and adolescent problem behavior can be seen: PCAF negatively predicts adolescent problem behavior (β = −0.171, p < 0.001). Then, after taking APPCAF and ASF in equations, from Equations (2)–(4), the association between all variables can be seen: first, PCAF positively predicts APPCAF (β = 0.476, p< 0.001), meanwhile, APPCAF can negatively predict adolescent problem behavior (β = −0.144, p < 0.001); second, PCAF positively predicts ASF (β = 0.122, p < 0.001) and APPCAF (β = 0.507, p < 0.001), meanwhile, can negatively predict problem behavior (β = −0.082, p < 0.001); finally, PCAF still significantly, negatively predicts adolescent problem behavior (β = −0.072, p < 0.001).
In addition, APPCAF is related to the two highest regression coefficients. One is the regression coefficient between PCAF and APPCAF (β = 0.476, p < 0.001), another is between APPCAF and ASF (β = 0.507, p < 0.001).

2.3.3. Mediating Role Analysis

From Table 3 and Figure 1, it can be seen that APPCAF and ASF play a significant mediating role between PCAF and adolescent problem behavior. This mediation includes three paths: indirect path 1 that including PCAF, APPCAF, and adolescent problem behavior; indirect path 2 that including PACF, ASF, and adolescent problem behavior; and indirect path 3 that includes PCAF, APPCAF, ASF, and adolescent problem behavior. The total indirect path regression coefficient is −0.98. The percent of the three indirect paths are 69.72%, 10.16%, and 20.12%, respectively. All indirect paths are significant.
In order to identify if there are significant path differences between different paths, indirect path comparison option in model 6 was selected to compare different indirect paths in pairs. Comparison 1–3 shows the confidence interval (bootstrap 95%) of the difference between indirect path 1 and 2, path 1 and 3, and path 2 and 3, which does not include 0, which indicates that there is a significant difference between path 1 and 2, path 1 and 3, as well as path 2 and 3.

3. Discussion

This study explored the relationship between confidence in the future and adolescent problem behavior based on a national sample from China. The results show that confidence in the future plays a role in adolescent problem behavior, and APPCAF and ASF play a mediating role in the link between PCAF and adolescent problem behavior.

3.1. The Role of PCAF in Adolescent Problem Behavior

The results show adolescent problem behavior can be negatively predicted by PCAF. Table 2’s “the Equation (1)” indicates the role of PCAF in adolescent problem behavior, which supports H1. This result extends the CTMPB risk-protection model variables range, namely, PCAF plays a role in adolescent problem behavior [21]. In addition, this result supports the ecological systems theory, which holds that adolescent problem behavior could be associated with household-level factors [28].
This finding in this study reveals the importance of PCAF for adolescents, which not only associates with adolescent positive behaviors such as academic performance [12,13,14], but also associates with adolescent problem behavior. High level of PCAF may maintain “support protection” and “controls protection” against problem behavior [21]. Conversely, if parents have a lower level of confidence in adolescent future for some reasons, the consequence might not only decrease adolescent positive behavior, but also increase risk of engagement in problem behaviors.

3.2. The Parallel Mediating Role of APPCAF and ASF

Table 3’s “indirect path 1” (PCAF, APPCAF, and adolescent problem behavior) and “indirect effect 2” (PCAF, ASF, and adolescent problem behavior) reveals the mediating role of APPCAF and ASF between PCAF and adolescent problem behavior, which supports H2 and H4.
In terms of the mediating role of APPCAF, first, PCAF strongly negatively predicts APPCAF. This result shows that, on one hand, there is a significant difference between APPCAF and PCAF, namely, PCAF and APPCAF are two completely different variables; on the other hand, there is a significant consistent between APPCAF and PCAF, namely, there is a strong correlation between them. Second, the role of this path is the highest one and far more than other paths; this finding indicates that APPCAF is an important factor in adolescent problem behavior.
In terms of the mediating role of ASF, first, the findings of this study support CTMPB, which argues that “low expectation of success” is a vulnerability risk factor in adolescent problem behavior. Second, this result further crystallizes the CTMPB, and the finding suggests that a low level of ASF, as a manifestation of “low expectation of success”, is a vulnerability risk factor in adolescent problem behavior. This result is consistent with the previous study [20,21]. Third, the results also broaden the understanding of the idea that confidence in the future not only contributes to future achievement, but is also associated with adolescent problem behavior.

3.3. The Chain Mediating Role of APPCAF and ASF

In addition to the two above paths, there is a third path. Table 3’s “indirect effect 3” (PCAF, APPCAF, ASF, and adolescent problem behavior) reveals the chain mediating role of APPCAF and ASF between PCAF and adolescent problem behavior, which also supports H3.
The regression coefficient of the role of the chain mediating reaches 0.020, which is high enough as a chain regression coefficient containing four variables, and even higher than the regression coefficient of indirect path 2. In addition, the highest two regression coefficients are related to APPCAF. This result further shows the important mediating role of APPCAF. Namely, APPCAF is an important factor not only for ASF, but also for adolescent problem behavior. This reflects the rationality of the social psychological perspective of CTMPB [21].
Finally, it is worth mentioning that the regression coefficient of total indirect path reaches 0.098 (the regression coefficient of direct path is 0.072), which indicates that APPCAF and ASF play more than half the mediating role between PCAF and adolescent problem behavior when parental relationship and gender are covariates.

4. Implications and Limitations

According to the findings of this study, PCAF can play role in adolescent problem behavior through APPCAF and ASF. Both parents and teachers of adolescents should attach importance to the cultivation of ASF. In particular, it is worth mentioning that, in addition to some traditional methods to increase self-confidence, such as encouragement and praise, there are some new methods to boost adolescent self-confidence. For example, recent studies show that strengthening physical education is a way to increase self-confidence [39], as well as increasing motivation by clarifying goals and self-management exercising [40,41]. In addition, parents can improve ASF by enhancing PCAF and paying more attention to the impact of their own behaviors on APPCAF. Parents of adolescents with problematic behavior could try to maintain ASF, as to decrease the risk of adolescent engagement in problem behavior.
Meanwhile, there are some limitations of this study. The study is based on survey materials, not on actual reported cases of adolescent problem behavior, and is a cross-sectional investigation, in which it is difficult to determine the causal relationship between variables. At same time, apart from two variables of “parental relationship” and “gender”, more co-variables can be controlled. For instance, according to previous research results, parent–child relationships and peer relationships may also be co-variable factors. In addition, future research could extend to more protection and risk factors, and the role of ASF in problem behavior can be further studied.

5. Conclusions

These results are found in this study: (1) PCAF, APPCAF, and ASF significantly, negatively predict adolescent problem behavior; (2) APPCAF and ASF play a parallel mediating role in the link between PCAF and problem behavior; (3) APPCAF and ASF play a chain mediating role between PCAF and adolescent problem behavior.
According to the above results, we know that PCAF and ASF are important factors related to adolescent problem behavior, and low levels of both PCAF and ASF are vulnerability risk factors in adolescent problem behavior. PCAF can play a role in adolescent problem behavior through APPCAF and ASF. There may be a way to prevent, and intervene in, adolescent problem behavior, namely, strengthening PCAF and ASF to reduce the likelihood of engagement in problem behavior. However, this study was based on cross-sectional data only and is required to be supported by further experimental or longitudinal studies.

Author Contributions

Conceptualization, funding acquisition, and writing—original draft, Y.O.; editing and writing—review, X.X.; formal analysis, data curation, Z.O. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.

Funding

This study is supported by “Research on Implementation Path of Admonishment System in Anti-Domestic Violence Law” (21A0604), Major Project of Hunan Provincial Department of Education (2021).

Institutional Review Board Statement

This study was conducted in accordance with the guidelines of the Declaration of Helsinki and was approved by the Ethics Committee of Renmin University of China. All participants participated in our survey voluntarily. In addition, they were notified of their right to withdraw at any time during the investigation. We use numbers instead of names to identify participants. These data are for research purposes only.

Informed Consent Statement

Informed consent was obtained from all subjects involved in the study.

Data Availability Statement

The data presented in this study are available on request from the corresponding author. The data are not publicly available due to privacy.

Acknowledgments

We thank all the participants in the CEPS project.

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

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Figure 1. The paths of the multiple mediation. The numbers in the figure are β value. *** p < 0.001.
Figure 1. The paths of the multiple mediation. The numbers in the figure are β value. *** p < 0.001.
Sustainability 15 05191 g001
Table
Table 1. The descriptive statistics and correlations of main variables.
Table 1. The descriptive statistics and correlations of main variables.
MSD1234
1. PCAF3.190.69
2. APPCAF3.080.700.486 ***
3. ASF3.130.710.368 ***0.570 ***
4. Adolescent problem behavior15.424.70−0.191 ***−0.246 ***−0.200 ***
5. Parental relationship 1.100.300.090 ***0.150 ***0.124 ***−0.131 ***
Note: N = 8328; *** p < 0.001.
Table
Table 2. Regression equations.
Table 2. Regression equations.
VariablesEquation (1)Equation (2)Equation (3)Equation (4)
βtΒtβtβt
PCAF−0.171 ***−16.0220.476 ***49.6900.122 ***11.902−0.072 ***−6.004
APPCAF 0.507 ***49.402−0.144 ***−10.581
ASF −0.082 ***−6.405
Parental relationship−0.119 ***−11.2450.107 ***11.1760.036 ***3.987−0.097 ***−9.174
Gender−0.141 ***−13.101 ***0.0111.111−0.045 ***−5.401−0.141 ***−13.462
R0.2620.4970.5820.315
R20.0690.2470.3390.099
F204.730 ***912.475 ***1068.409 ***183.220 ***
Note: Equations (1) and (4)’s dependent variables are adolescent problem behavior; Equation (2)’s dependent variable is APPCAF; Equation (3)’s dependent variable is ASF. *** p < 0.001.
Table
Table 3. The comparison of indirect paths.
Table 3. The comparison of indirect paths.
Regression CoefficientBoot SEBoot LLCIBoot ULCIPercentage
Total indirect path −0.0980.007−0.112−0.084100%
Indirect path 1 −0.0690.008−0.084−0.05369.72%
Indirect path 2 −0.0100.002−0.014−0.00610.16%
Indirect path 3 −0.0200.004−0.027−0.01220.12%
Comparison 1 −0.0590.009−0.077−0.041
Comparison 2−0.0490.010−0.069−0.029
Comparison 30.0100.0020.0060.015
Note: Boot LLCI and Boot ULCI are the lower and upper limits of 95% confidence intervals (Bootstrap 5000 times), respectively; Boot SE is the standard errors. Indirect path 1: PCAF, APPCAF, and adolescent problem behavior; indirect path 2: PCAF, ASF, and adolescent problem behavior; indirect path 3: PACF, APPCAF, ASF, and adolescent problem behavior.
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Ouyang, Y.; Xu, X.; Ouyang, Z. Confidence in the Future and Adolescent Problem Behavior. Sustainability 2023, 15, 5191. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15065191

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Ouyang Y, Xu X, Ouyang Z. Confidence in the Future and Adolescent Problem Behavior. Sustainability. 2023; 15(6):5191. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15065191

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Ouyang, Yanwen, Xizheng Xu, and Zirui Ouyang. 2023. "Confidence in the Future and Adolescent Problem Behavior" Sustainability 15, no. 6: 5191. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15065191

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