Predicting the Potential Distribution of the Endangered Plant Eucommia ulmoides in China under the Background of Climate Change
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Research Area
2.2. Species Occurrence Data
2.3. Environmental Variable Screening and Data Processing
2.4. Model Establishment, Optimization, and Evaluation
2.5. Classification of Suitable Areas and Modeling Accuracy Evaluation
2.6. Analysis of Low Impact Areas
2.7. Analysis of Spatial Pattern Change
2.8. Centroid Transfer Analysis
3. Results
3.1. Analysis of the Model Accuracy and Classification of Suitable Regions
3.2. Environmental Variables Contribution Analysis
3.3. Analysis of Current Potentially Suitable Regions
3.4. Analysis of Future Potentially Suitable Regions
3.5. Analysis of Low Impact Areas
3.6. Shift in Distribution Center of the Suitable Region
4. Discussion
4.1. Model Accuracy Analysis
4.2. Impacts of Environmental Variables on Species Distribution
4.3. Spatial Dynamics of Potentially Suitable Areas
4.4. Suggestions on Resource Conservation and Development
4.5. Study Limitations
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
Appendix A
Species | Lon 1 | Lat 1 | Species | Lon 1 | Lat 1 | Species | Lon 1 | Lat 1 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Eucommia ulmoides | 100.3541 | 30.8958 | Eucommia ulmoides | 105.3542 | 30.1042 | Eucommia ulmoides | 107.1042 | 30.1042 |
Eucommia ulmoides | 102.0208 | 29.8958 | Eucommia ulmoides | 105.3542 | 32.2292 | Eucommia ulmoides | 107.1042 | 31.1458 |
Eucommia ulmoides | 102.0625 | 29.6042 | Eucommia ulmoides | 105.3958 | 28.1042 | Eucommia ulmoides | 107.2292 | 24.2292 |
Eucommia ulmoides | 102.0625 | 31.4792 | Eucommia ulmoides | 105.5625 | 26.2708 | Eucommia ulmoides | 107.2292 | 29.1458 |
Eucommia ulmoides | 102.1458 | 29.6458 | Eucommia ulmoides | 105.5625 | 28.1875 | Eucommia ulmoides | 107.2708 | 25.2708 |
Eucommia ulmoides | 102.5625 | 27.3958 | Eucommia ulmoides | 105.5625 | 28.3125 | Eucommia ulmoides | 107.3125 | 30.1458 |
Eucommia ulmoides | 102.6875 | 28.9375 | Eucommia ulmoides | 105.5625 | 30.6042 | Eucommia ulmoides | 107.3125 | 30.2708 |
Eucommia ulmoides | 102.7292 | 29.3542 | Eucommia ulmoides | 105.5625 | 32.1875 | Eucommia ulmoides | 107.3542 | 30.2708 |
Eucommia ulmoides | 102.8542 | 30.2708 | Eucommia ulmoides | 105.6875 | 24.5625 | Eucommia ulmoides | 107.3542 | 28.9375 |
Eucommia ulmoides | 103.1042 | 29.8125 | Eucommia ulmoides | 105.9792 | 29.6875 | Eucommia ulmoides | 107.3542 | 29.1042 |
Eucommia ulmoides | 103.2708 | 27.6875 | Eucommia ulmoides | 106.0208 | 28.4375 | Eucommia ulmoides | 107.3542 | 30.2292 |
Eucommia ulmoides | 103.3542 | 30.1458 | Eucommia ulmoides | 106.0625 | 26.0625 | Eucommia ulmoides | 107.3958 | 29.3542 |
Eucommia ulmoides | 103.3958 | 29.6042 | Eucommia ulmoides | 106.0625 | 26.4375 | Eucommia ulmoides | 107.4792 | 29.3542 |
Eucommia ulmoides | 103.6458 | 28.2708 | Eucommia ulmoides | 106.1042 | 25.5625 | Eucommia ulmoides | 107.6042 | 29.3125 |
Eucommia ulmoides | 103.8125 | 30.6875 | Eucommia ulmoides | 106.1042 | 28.5625 | Eucommia ulmoides | 107.6042 | 29.4375 |
Eucommia ulmoides | 104.0208 | 28.7708 | Eucommia ulmoides | 106.1042 | 33.5625 | Eucommia ulmoides | 107.6042 | 32.1042 |
Eucommia ulmoides | 104.3125 | 25.5625 | Eucommia ulmoides | 106.1875 | 28.1458 | Eucommia ulmoides | 107.6875 | 26.0625 |
Eucommia ulmoides | 104.3125 | 33.1042 | Eucommia ulmoides | 106.2292 | 29.1458 | Eucommia ulmoides | 107.8958 | 25.9792 |
Eucommia ulmoides | 104.3958 | 26.3542 | Eucommia ulmoides | 106.2292 | 29.1458 | Eucommia ulmoides | 108.0208 | 26.3542 |
Eucommia ulmoides | 104.4375 | 27.1458 | Eucommia ulmoides | 106.2292 | 32.2292 | Eucommia ulmoides | 108.1042 | 28.2292 |
Eucommia ulmoides | 104.5208 | 32.4375 | Eucommia ulmoides | 106.2292 | 32.4375 | Eucommia ulmoides | 108.1458 | 25.5625 |
Eucommia ulmoides | 104.6458 | 27.1042 | Eucommia ulmoides | 106.2708 | 29.1875 | Eucommia ulmoides | 108.1458 | 27.3125 |
Eucommia ulmoides | 104.6875 | 29.5208 | Eucommia ulmoides | 106.3125 | 28.3542 | Eucommia ulmoides | 108.2708 | 24.8542 |
Eucommia ulmoides | 104.7292 | 31.8542 | Eucommia ulmoides | 106.3542 | 28.4375 | Eucommia ulmoides | 108.3542 | 25.2292 |
Eucommia ulmoides | 104.9792 | 28.4792 | Eucommia ulmoides | 106.3542 | 29.9375 | Eucommia ulmoides | 108.3542 | 27.6042 |
Eucommia ulmoides | 104.9792 | 28.6042 | Eucommia ulmoides | 106.4375 | 26.4792 | Eucommia ulmoides | 108.3958 | 29.3542 |
Eucommia ulmoides | 105.0208 | 25.1458 | Eucommia ulmoides | 106.4375 | 27.3125 | Eucommia ulmoides | 108.4375 | 28.0625 |
Eucommia ulmoides | 105.1042 | 24.3542 | Eucommia ulmoides | 106.5208 | 26.4792 | Eucommia ulmoides | 108.4375 | 28.2292 |
Eucommia ulmoides | 105.1042 | 24.5625 | Eucommia ulmoides | 106.5625 | 26.2708 | Eucommia ulmoides | 108.4792 | 28.3958 |
Eucommia ulmoides | 105.2292 | 26.1875 | Eucommia ulmoides | 106.5625 | 29.3958 | Eucommia ulmoides | 108.5208 | 27.3542 |
Eucommia ulmoides | 105.2292 | 27.2708 | Eucommia ulmoides | 106.5625 | 29.5208 | Eucommia ulmoides | 108.5208 | 29.2708 |
Eucommia ulmoides | 105.2292 | 28.1042 | Eucommia ulmoides | 106.6875 | 25.9375 | Eucommia ulmoides | 108.5208 | 29.3542 |
Eucommia ulmoides | 105.2292 | 28.3125 | Eucommia ulmoides | 106.6875 | 26.4792 | Eucommia ulmoides | 108.6458 | 27.0208 |
Eucommia ulmoides | 105.2708 | 24.2292 | Eucommia ulmoides | 106.7292 | 26.6458 | Eucommia ulmoides | 108.6458 | 31.4792 |
Eucommia ulmoides | 105.2708 | 24.3542 | Eucommia ulmoides | 106.9375 | 31.9792 | Eucommia ulmoides | 108.6875 | 27.9375 |
Eucommia ulmoides | 105.2708 | 32.5625 | Eucommia ulmoides | 107.0208 | 25.3125 | Eucommia ulmoides | 108.8542 | 27.7292 |
Eucommia ulmoides | 105.3125 | 25.2708 | Eucommia ulmoides | 107.0625 | 24.5208 | Eucommia ulmoides | 108.8542 | 31.5208 |
Eucommia ulmoides | 105.3125 | 25.4792 | Eucommia ulmoides | 107.0625 | 29.6458 | Eucommia ulmoides | 108.9792 | 28.3542 |
Eucommia ulmoides | 105.3125 | 26.5625 | Eucommia ulmoides | 107.0625 | 32.3125 | Eucommia ulmoides | 109.0625 | 26.2708 |
Eucommia ulmoides | 105.3125 | 28.1458 | Eucommia ulmoides | 107.1042 | 29.0625 | Eucommia ulmoides | 109.1042 | 26.1875 |
Eucommia ulmoides | 105.3542 | 25.5625 | Eucommia ulmoides | 107.1042 | 29.4792 | Eucommia ulmoides | 109.1042 | 26.3125 |
Eucommia ulmoides | 109.1458 | 29.3542 | Eucommia ulmoides | 111.1875 | 30.2292 | Eucommia ulmoides | 114.6458 | 29.3125 |
Eucommia ulmoides | 109.1875 | 32.1875 | Eucommia ulmoides | 111.1875 | 31.5625 | Eucommia ulmoides | 114.8125 | 31.6458 |
Eucommia ulmoides | 109.2292 | 28.3958 | Eucommia ulmoides | 111.3125 | 27.4792 | Eucommia ulmoides | 114.8542 | 31.6042 |
Eucommia ulmoides | 109.3958 | 28.6042 | Eucommia ulmoides | 111.3958 | 26.2708 | Eucommia ulmoides | 115.1458 | 29.1875 |
Eucommia ulmoides | 109.4375 | 30.0208 | Eucommia ulmoides | 111.5208 | 24.4792 | Eucommia ulmoides | 115.1458 | 29.3125 |
Eucommia ulmoides | 109.4375 | 30.6458 | Eucommia ulmoides | 111.5208 | 28.1458 | Eucommia ulmoides | 115.4375 | 29.6875 |
Eucommia ulmoides | 109.4792 | 24.3125 | Eucommia ulmoides | 111.6875 | 25.3125 | Eucommia ulmoides | 115.9375 | 29.6042 |
Eucommia ulmoides | 109.4792 | 32.3542 | Eucommia ulmoides | 111.8542 | 24.8958 | Eucommia ulmoides | 115.9792 | 40.4792 |
Eucommia ulmoides | 109.5208 | 25.3542 | Eucommia ulmoides | 111.8958 | 28.1458 | Eucommia ulmoides | 116.0625 | 29.5625 |
Eucommia ulmoides | 109.5625 | 28.3542 | Eucommia ulmoides | 111.9792 | 26.7292 | Eucommia ulmoides | 116.0625 | 39.9792 |
Eucommia ulmoides | 109.6042 | 29.4792 | Eucommia ulmoides | 112.3958 | 33.7708 | Eucommia ulmoides | 116.2292 | 29.2708 |
Eucommia ulmoides | 109.6042 | 31.3958 | Eucommia ulmoides | 112.4792 | 37.7292 | Eucommia ulmoides | 116.2292 | 39.9792 |
Eucommia ulmoides | 109.6042 | 34.3542 | Eucommia ulmoides | 112.6042 | 37.8125 | Eucommia ulmoides | 116.5208 | 27.0208 |
Eucommia ulmoides | 109.7292 | 31.8542 | Eucommia ulmoides | 112.7292 | 27.2292 | Eucommia ulmoides | 116.6042 | 35.4375 |
Eucommia ulmoides | 109.7292 | 34.3542 | Eucommia ulmoides | 113.0625 | 25.8125 | Eucommia ulmoides | 116.8542 | 27.0625 |
Eucommia ulmoides | 109.8542 | 25.7292 | Eucommia ulmoides | 113.0625 | 28.1875 | Eucommia ulmoides | 116.9792 | 35.6042 |
Eucommia ulmoides | 110.0208 | 28.2292 | Eucommia ulmoides | 113.3125 | 35.3125 | Eucommia ulmoides | 117.0208 | 36.2708 |
Eucommia ulmoides | 110.0625 | 28.3958 | Eucommia ulmoides | 113.5208 | 35.2708 | Eucommia ulmoides | 117.0208 | 36.6458 |
Eucommia ulmoides | 110.0625 | 28.6458 | Eucommia ulmoides | 113.5625 | 35.1875 | Eucommia ulmoides | 117.1458 | 36.1875 |
Eucommia ulmoides | 110.1042 | 26.3958 | Eucommia ulmoides | 113.5625 | 35.3542 | Eucommia ulmoides | 117.2708 | 36.1042 |
Eucommia ulmoides | 110.1042 | 28.3958 | Eucommia ulmoides | 113.6042 | 35.7292 | Eucommia ulmoides | 117.3125 | 29.0208 |
Eucommia ulmoides | 110.1458 | 28.4375 | Eucommia ulmoides | 113.8958 | 28.6042 | Eucommia ulmoides | 117.9792 | 35.5625 |
Eucommia ulmoides | 110.1458 | 29.1042 | Eucommia ulmoides | 113.9792 | 35.3542 | Eucommia ulmoides | 118.0625 | 36.1875 |
Eucommia ulmoides | 110.1875 | 24.1458 | Eucommia ulmoides | 114.0208 | 26.1042 | Eucommia ulmoides | 118.1042 | 28.5208 |
Eucommia ulmoides | 110.1875 | 28.8125 | Eucommia ulmoides | 114.0208 | 26.5208 | Eucommia ulmoides | 118.1458 | 29.1875 |
Eucommia ulmoides | 110.2292 | 26.0208 | Eucommia ulmoides | 114.0208 | 27.3125 | Eucommia ulmoides | 118.1458 | 29.1458 |
Eucommia ulmoides | 110.2292 | 28.4792 | Eucommia ulmoides | 114.0208 | 27.3958 | Eucommia ulmoides | 118.9792 | 35.9792 |
Eucommia ulmoides | 110.2292 | 31.2708 | Eucommia ulmoides | 114.0208 | 28.4792 | Eucommia ulmoides | 119.1875 | 36.5625 |
Eucommia ulmoides | 110.3542 | 24.5625 | Eucommia ulmoides | 114.1042 | 27.1458 | Eucommia ulmoides | 119.4375 | 29.1875 |
Eucommia ulmoides | 110.3958 | 31.4375 | Eucommia ulmoides | 114.1042 | 31.8125 | Eucommia ulmoides | 119.4375 | 30.3125 |
Eucommia ulmoides | 110.4375 | 34.7708 | Eucommia ulmoides | 114.1458 | 27.2292 | Eucommia ulmoides | 119.4375 | 32.3958 |
Eucommia ulmoides | 110.4375 | 34.8125 | Eucommia ulmoides | 114.1458 | 27.3125 | Eucommia ulmoides | 119.9375 | 27.8542 |
Eucommia ulmoides | 110.4792 | 25.7708 | Eucommia ulmoides | 114.2708 | 25.6042 | Eucommia ulmoides | 120.1042 | 36.9792 |
Eucommia ulmoides | 110.5208 | 24.5625 | Eucommia ulmoides | 114.2708 | 26.6042 | Eucommia ulmoides | 120.3958 | 36.3125 |
Eucommia ulmoides | 110.6875 | 26.0208 | Eucommia ulmoides | 114.3125 | 27.6875 | Eucommia ulmoides | 120.5208 | 28.9792 |
Eucommia ulmoides | 110.8542 | 34.1875 | Eucommia ulmoides | 114.3958 | 28.6458 | Eucommia ulmoides | 120.7708 | 37.5208 |
Eucommia ulmoides | 110.9375 | 31.0625 | Eucommia ulmoides | 114.4375 | 29.0625 | Eucommia ulmoides | 120.8958 | 31.3125 |
Eucommia ulmoides | 110.9375 | 33.3125 | Eucommia ulmoides | 114.4792 | 29.0208 | Eucommia ulmoides | 121.2708 | 37.2292 |
Eucommia ulmoides | 111.0208 | 26.0625 | Eucommia ulmoides | 114.5208 | 28.0208 | Eucommia ulmoides | 121.3542 | 37.5208 |
Eucommia ulmoides | 111.0625 | 26.7708 | Eucommia ulmoides | 114.5625 | 25.8125 | Eucommia ulmoides | 121.3958 | 31.2292 |
Eucommia ulmoides | 111.1875 | 28.1042 | Eucommia ulmoides | 114.6458 | 28.9792 | Eucommia ulmoides | 122.1875 | 37.3542 |
Eucommia ulmoides | 122.2708 | 29.8125 |
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Code | Environmental Variable | Percent Contribution (%) |
---|---|---|
BIO02 | Mean diurnal range (Mean of monthly (max temp–min temp)) (°C) | 53.8 |
BIO03 | Isothermality | 0.8 |
BIO04 | Temperature seasonality (standard deviation × 100) | 0.4 |
BIO08 | Mean temperature of wettest quarter (°C) | 0.7 |
BIO11 | Mean temperature of coldest quarter (°C) | 41.4 |
BIO14 | Precipitation of driest month (mm) | 1.6 |
BIO18 | Precipitation of warmest quarter (mm) | 1.3 |
Decades | Predicted Area (×104 km2) and % of the Corresponding Current Area | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Suitable Region | Poorly Suitable Region | Moderately Suitable Region | Highly Suitable Region | ||
1970–2000 | 211.14 | 113.68 | 96.39 | 1.07 | |
SSP1-2.6 | 2050s | 210.49 | 156.97 | 53.48 | 0.04 |
(99.69%) | (138.08%) | (55.48%) | (3.73%) | ||
2070s | 206.60 | 155.83 | 50.70 | 0.07 | |
(99.69%) | (138.08%) | (55.48%) | (3.73%) | ||
2090s | 214.96 | 160.11 | 54.79 | 0.06 | |
(101.81%) | (140.84%) | (56.84%) | (5.36%) | ||
SSP2-4.5 | 2050s | 212.76 | 160.02 | 52.68 | 0.06 |
(100.77%) | (140.76%) | (54.66%) | (5.68%) | ||
2070s | 204.64 | 164.38 | 40.24 | 0.06 | |
(96.92%) | (144.59%) | (41.75%) | (1.46%) | ||
2090s | 197.05 | 165.42 | 31.62 | 0.01 | |
(93.33%) | (145.51%) | (32.81%) | (0.81%) | ||
SSP3-7.0 | 2050s | 215.84 | 155.51 | 60.29 | 0.03 |
(102.23%) | (136.80%) | (62.55%) | (3.08%) | ||
2070s | 207.33 | 167.73 | 39.59 | 0.01 | |
(98.20%) | (147.55%) | (41.07%) | (1.14%) | ||
2090s | 176.23 | 151.00 | 25.22 | 0.01 | |
(83.47%) | (132.83%) | (26.17%) | (0.81%) | ||
SSP5-8.5 | 2050s | 210.40 | 167.74 | 42.65 | 0.02 |
(99.65%) | (147.55%) | (44.25%) | (1.62%) | ||
2070s | 167.59 | 142.25 | 25.33 | 0.01 | |
(79.37%) | (125.13%) | (26.28%) | (0.81%) | ||
2090s | 98.87 | 87.99 | 10.87 | 0.01 | |
(46.83%) | (77.40%) | (11.27%) | (0.65%) |
LIA Statistics | Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs) | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
SSP1-2.6 | SSP2-4.5 | SSP3-7.0 | SSP5-8.5 | |
Geographic area (×104 km2) | 192.77 | 178.24 | 150.35 | 73.37 |
Percentage of current suitable area (%) | 91.30 | 84.42 | 71.21 | 34.75 |
Percentage of SSP1-2.6 area (%) | 100.00 | 92.46 | 77.99 | 38.06 |
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Xie, S.; Si, H.; Sun, H.; Zhao, Q.; Li, X.; Wang, S.; Niu, J.; Wang, Z. Predicting the Potential Distribution of the Endangered Plant Eucommia ulmoides in China under the Background of Climate Change. Sustainability 2023, 15, 5349. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15065349
Xie S, Si H, Sun H, Zhao Q, Li X, Wang S, Niu J, Wang Z. Predicting the Potential Distribution of the Endangered Plant Eucommia ulmoides in China under the Background of Climate Change. Sustainability. 2023; 15(6):5349. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15065349
Chicago/Turabian StyleXie, Siyuan, He Si, Hongxia Sun, Qian Zhao, Xiaodong Li, Shiqiang Wang, Junfeng Niu, and Zhezhi Wang. 2023. "Predicting the Potential Distribution of the Endangered Plant Eucommia ulmoides in China under the Background of Climate Change" Sustainability 15, no. 6: 5349. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15065349