Severity Analysis of Multi-Truck Crashes on Mountain Freeways Using a Mixed Logit Model
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Data
3. Methodology
3.1. Traditional Ordered Logit Model
3.2. The Generalized Ordered Logit Model
3.3. The Multinomial Logit Model
3.4. Mixed Logit Model
3.5. Model Comparison and Marginal Effects
4. Estimation Results
5. Discussion
5.1. Crash Characteristics
5.2. Vehicle Characteristics
5.3. Environmental Characteristics
5.4. Roadway Characteristics
6. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Subtitle | Variable | Mean | S.D. | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Response variable | ||||
Crash severity Level | 2 = Severe crash 1 = Medium crash 0 = Light crash | |||
Explanatory variable (binary variable) | ||||
Crash type | ||||
Sideswipe | 1 = Sideswipe 0 = Otherwise | 0.25 | 0.43 | |
Rollover | 1 = Rollover 0 = Otherwise | 0.08 | 0.28 | |
Head-on | 1 = Head-on 0 = Otherwise | 0.51 | 0.50 | |
Rear-end | 1 = Rear-end 0 = Otherwise | 0.11 | 0.32 | |
Hit object | 1 = Hit object 0 = Otherwise | 0.04 | 0.20 | |
Vehicle type | ||||
Heavy truck | 1 = Heavy truck 0 = Otherwise | 0.37 | 0.48 | |
Light truck | 1 = Light truck 0 = Otherwise | 0.42 | 0.49 | |
Medium truck | 1 = Medium truck 0 = Otherwise | 0.22 | 0.41 | |
Surface condition | ||||
Dry | 1 = Dry 0 = Otherwise | 0.88 | 0.32 | |
Wet and snow | 1 = Wet and snow 0 = Otherwise | 0.12 | 0.32 | |
Time of day | ||||
Early morning | 1 = Crash occurrence time is in the period from 12 a.m. to 6 a.m. 0 = Otherwise | 0.09 | 0.29 | |
Morning | 1 = Crash occurrence time is in the period from 6 a.m. to 12 p.m. 0 = Otherwise | 0.24 | 0.42 | |
Afternoon | 1 = Crash occurrence time is in the period from 12 p.m. to 6 p.m. 0 = Otherwise | 0.35 | 0.48 | |
Evening | 1 = Crash occurrence time is in the period from 6 p.m. to 12 a.m. 0 = Otherwise | 0.29 | 0.45 | |
Day of Week | ||||
Weekday | 1 = Weekday 0 = Otherwise | 0.71 | 0.45 | |
Weekend | 1 = Weekend 0 = Otherwise | 0.29 | 0.45 | |
Season | ||||
Spring | 1 = Spring 0 = Otherwise | 0.24 | 0.43 | |
Summer | 1 = Summer 0 = Otherwise | 0.23 | 0.42 | |
Autumn | 1 = Autumn 0 = Otherwise | 0.22 | 0.41 | |
Winter | 1 = Winter 0 = Otherwise | 0.31 | 0.46 | |
Slope combination | ||||
Curve and slope | 1 = Slope degree ≥ 1% and curve radius ≤ 2000 m 0 = Otherwise | 0.04 | 0.20 | |
Slope | 1 = Slope degree ≥ 1% 0 = Otherwise | 0.06 | 0.23 | |
Curve | 1 = Curve radius ≤ 2000 m 0 = Otherwise | 0.09 | 0.29 | |
Level straight | 1 = Slope degree ≤ 1% and curve radius ≥ 2000 m 0 = Otherwise | 0.81 | 0.39 | |
Pavement structure | ||||
Asphalt | 1 = Asphalt 0 = Otherwise | 0.73 | 0.44 | |
Concrete | 1 = Concrete 0 = Otherwise | 0.21 | 0.41 | |
Dirt and sand | 1 = Dirt and sand 0 = Otherwise | 0.06 | 0.24 | |
Guardrail | 1 = Waveform guardrail 0 = Otherwise | 0.25 | 0.43 |
Variable | Threshold between Light and Medium Injury | Threshold between Medium and Severe Injury | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Coefficients | p-Value | Coefficients | p-Value | |
Constant | 0.402 *** | 0.056 | −2.350 *** | 0.000 |
Crash type | ||||
Sideswipe | −0.395 ** | 0.013 | −1.056 *** | 0.000 |
Rollover | 0.965 *** | 0.000 | ||
Head-on | −0.295 ** | 0.042 | −0.607 *** | 0.009 |
Vehicle type | ||||
Medium truck | −0.412 * | 0.096 | ||
Surface condition | ||||
Dry | ||||
Time of day | ||||
Afternoon | 0.372 ** | 0.043 | ||
Season | ||||
Winter | 0.303 *** | 0.008 | ||
Summer | ||||
Slope combination | ||||
Curve | −0.051 * | 0.067 | −0.087 * | 0.057 |
Slope | 0.292 * | 0.090 | 0.590 * | 0.078 |
Curve and slope | 1.483 *** | 0.000 | 0.488 ** | 0.034 |
Pavement structure | ||||
Dirt and sand | 0.581 ** | 0.016 | ||
Concrete | ||||
Guardrail | 0.354 *** | 0.004 | 0.578 *** | 0.005 |
Adjusted ρ2 | 0.211 | |||
AIC | 3408.792 | |||
BIC | 3587.55 |
Variable | Medium Injury | Severe Injury | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Coefficients | p-Value | Coefficients | p-Value | |
Constant | 0.201 | 0.360 | −1.359 *** | 0.001 |
Crash type | ||||
Sideswipe | −1.533 *** | 0.000 | ||
Rollover | 1.019 *** | 0.000 | 0.808 ** | 0.017 |
Head-on | −0.998 *** | 0.000 | ||
Vehicle type | ||||
Medium truck | −0.510 ** | 0.046 | ||
Surface condition | ||||
Dry | 0.236 ** | 0.049 | −0.387 ** | 0.044 |
Time of day | ||||
Morning | −0.597 ** | 0.012 | ||
Season | ||||
Winter | 0.356 *** | 0.002 | ||
Summer | −0.623 ** | 0.010 | ||
Slope combination | ||||
Curve | −0.032 * | 0.074 | −0.214 * | 0.059 |
Slope | 0.258 * | 0.071 | 0.376 * | 0.083 |
Curve and slope | 1.498 *** | 0.000 | 1.591 *** | 0.001 |
Pavement structure | ||||
Dirt and sand | 0.545 ** | 0.027 | 0.635 * | 0.086 |
Concrete | ||||
Guardrail | 0.340 *** | 0.006 | 0.430 ** | 0.034 |
Adjusted ρ2 | 0.212 | |||
AIC | 3390.608 | |||
BIC | 3578.262 |
Variable | Medium Injury | Severe Injury | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Coefficients | p-Value | Coefficients | p-Value | |
Constant | 0.112 | 0.513 | −0.692 *** | 0.002 |
Crash type | ||||
Sideswipe | −1.607 (0.375) *** | 0.000 | ||
Rollover | 1.385 (0.984) *** | 0.007 | 0.764 ** | 0.022 |
Head-on | −1.016 *** | 0.000 | ||
Vehicle type | ||||
Medium truck | −0.611 ** | 0.014 | ||
Surface condition | ||||
Dry | 0.261 (0.502) *** | 0.007 | ||
Time of day | ||||
Morning | −0.616 *** | 0.008 | ||
Season | ||||
Winter | 0.391 *** | 0.005 | ||
Summer | −0.649 *** | 0.005 | ||
Slope combination | ||||
Curve | −0.023 * | 0.056 | −0.163 * | 0.069 |
Slope | 0.182 * | 0.076 | 0.260 * | 0.085 |
Curve and slope | 1.654 *** | 0.000 | 1.660 *** | 0.001 |
Pavement structure | ||||
Concrete | −0.274 (0.474) * | 0.089 | −0.478 * | 0.058 |
Dirt and sand | 0.610 (0.751) * | 0.095 | 0.492 | 0.198 |
Guardrail | 0.240 (0.670) * | 0.098 | ||
Adjusted ρ2 | 0.287 | |||
AIC | 3337.320 | |||
BIC | 3503.871 |
Variable | Marginal Effects | ||
---|---|---|---|
light injury | medium injury | severe injury | |
Crash type | |||
Sideswipe | 0.088 *** | −0.002 | −0.086 *** |
Rollover | −0.235 *** | 0.222 *** | 0.012 |
Head-on | 0.061 ** | −0.005 | −0.055 *** |
Vehicle type | |||
Medium truck | −0.009 | 0.044 | −0.035 ** |
Surface condition | |||
Dry | −0.039 | 0.072 *** | −0.032 *** |
Time of day | |||
Morning | 0.007 | 0.031 | −0.038 *** |
Season | |||
Winter | −0.075 *** | 0.087 *** | −0.012 |
Summer | 0.013 | 0.025 | −0.039 *** |
Slope combination | |||
Curve | 0.012 * | −0.001 | −0.012 * |
Slope | −0.064 | 0.050 * | 0.013 * |
Curve and slope | −0.356 *** | 0.312 *** | 0.043 * |
Pavement structure | |||
Dirt and sand | −0.131 ** | 0.111 ** | 0.019 |
Concrete | 0.042 | −0.028 | −0.013 |
Guardrail | −0.082 *** | 0.068 ** | 0.014 |
Chi2 | df | P > Chi2 | |
---|---|---|---|
Wolfe Gould | 33.41 | 16 | 0.007 |
Brant | 30.97 | 16 | 0.014 |
Score | 31.64 | 16 | 0.011 |
Likelihood ratio | 33.41 | 16 | 0.007 |
Wald | 31.16 | 16 | 0.013 |
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Chen, Z.; Wen, H.; Zhu, Q.; Zhao, S. Severity Analysis of Multi-Truck Crashes on Mountain Freeways Using a Mixed Logit Model. Sustainability 2023, 15, 6499. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15086499
Chen Z, Wen H, Zhu Q, Zhao S. Severity Analysis of Multi-Truck Crashes on Mountain Freeways Using a Mixed Logit Model. Sustainability. 2023; 15(8):6499. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15086499
Chicago/Turabian StyleChen, Zheng, Huiying Wen, Qiang Zhu, and Sheng Zhao. 2023. "Severity Analysis of Multi-Truck Crashes on Mountain Freeways Using a Mixed Logit Model" Sustainability 15, no. 8: 6499. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15086499