Adaptation to Climate Change in Adriatic Croatia—The View of Policymakers

Abstract

Changes in temperature, precipitation, and the occurrence of extreme weather events are increasingly present. Due to climate change, the Mediterranean Basin (the focus of this study is on Adriatic Croatia as part of the Mediterranean Basin) is more affected by production and economic losses compared to other parts of Europe. Policymakers are important individuals involved in shaping public policies. The main objective of this study was to assess the opinion of policymakers at regional and national levels in Adriatic Croatia regarding climate change adaptation strategies. The aims are (i) to rank the importance of adaptation measures, (ii) to examine measures that have already been implemented, and (iii) to examine future measures that need to be implemented at regional and national levels. Semi-structured in-depth interviews were conducted with representatives of sectoral agencies, the national government, and the regional government to answer the study questions. The main conclusions show that policymakers consider irrigation, organic agriculture, crop crossbreeding and optimization of agrotechnical practices, and agricultural insurance as the most important strategies. Currently and in the future, the most important actions of policymakers are the provision of education, agricultural extension, and information exchange.

1. Introduction

The agricultural sector is more exposed to climate change than other sectors [1]. Agriculture is affected by temperature and precipitation changes and the increased frequency of extreme weather events (hail, frost, drought).

According to the European Environment Agency (EEA) (2022) [2], economic losses due to climate change amount to 450–520 billion EUR in the period 1980–2020. Climate change caused about USD 270 billion in global losses in 2022, less than in 2021 (USD 320 billion), which was marked with the highest economic losses. A total of 44% of the losses are insured [3]. The EEA distinguishes between meteorological (e.g., storms), hydrological (e.g., floods), and climatological events (e.g., heat waves, cold waves, droughts). Compared to total losses, meteorological and hydrological events each accounted for between 34% and 44% of losses, while climatological events caused between 22% and 24% of losses. In 2022, Europe’s weather situation was characterized by extreme heat and drought, as well as thunderstorms with hail. High temperatures and drought led to forest fires in Europe [3]. Data from the European Severe Weather Database [4] show that in early March 2023, almost all of Europe experienced wind; hail was experienced in France, Italy, Hungary, Greece, and the Slovak Republic, avalanches in Austria, and tornadoes in Italy, Spain, Greece, the United Kingdom, and France (Figure 1).

Farmers, in general, are exposed to climate change and its consequences, such as lower yields and quality changes. Adriatic Croatia is more exposed to extreme weather events compared to other parts of Europe because it is located in the Mediterranean region [5].

Adriatic Croatia is affected by the decrease in precipitation and the increase in heat waves and is characterized by hot, dry, and sunny weather in summer and rainy weather in winter. Future estimates show a further increase in heat waves and water scarcity in Adriatic Croatia. The World Bank Group (2021) [6] report notes that climate patterns in Croatia are changing toward more unpredictable seasons. Economic losses due to weather events in Croatian agriculture totaled EUR 1.176 billion from 2013 to 2019 and averaged EUR 8 million [7].

Agriculture in Croatia is divided into crop production, livestock, and fisheries. Citrus fruits, vegetables, olives, wine, and some kinds of livestock (sheep and goats), as well as fishing, are the main branches of production in Adriatic Croatia. The total utilized agricultural areas (UAA) in Adriatic Croatia in 2021 are about 30% (441,105 ha) of the total UAA (1,476,351 ha) in Croatia. Permanent grassland accounts for the largest share (83.88%) of the total UAA in Adriatic Croatia, and permanent crops (8.4%), arable land and gardens (7.56%), and vegetable gardens (0.12%) are also represented [8].

Responses to climate change are both mitigation and adaptation. Mitigation is widely known as the reduction of greenhouse gases at the country level. In the European Union, several mitigation measures are used in agriculture: reducing fertilizer use, improving animal waste management, cropping management, livestock management, organic soil management, and pasture improvement measures or grassland management. Adaptation measures mean using different on-farm strategies and risk transfer strategies and adjusting to the current and future effects of climate change [9].

A variety of adaptation strategies were pointed out in Reference [10] that can be divided into four groups: technological developments (e.g., development of new crop varieties, early weather warning systems, and on-farm water and resource management), government programs and insurance (subsidies, crop insurance, and ad hoc compensation), agricultural production practices (diversification of crop varieties and livestock, changing the location of crop and livestock production, irrigation practices, and changing the timing of agricultural activities), and financial management (crop insurance, investments in stocks and futures, income stabilization programs, and diversification of household income).

It was noted [11] that in addition to policies at the national, regional, and local levels to address climate challenges in agricultural production, adoption of technologies, sustainable land management (crop and water management and pest and disease control), knowledge transfer, crop insurance, and index insurance are also important.

Smallholder farmers in Croatia are considering important strategies such as irrigation and construction of public irrigation systems, the establishment of a public low-temperature system, and ecological practices (all strategies have a score ≥ 3.9 on a 1 (least important) to 5 scale (most important) [12].

As a member state of the European Union (EU), Croatia applies the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and contributes to the EU’s climate policy through the European Green Deal and the Farm to Fork strategy. One of the ten main objectives of CAP is to mitigate climate change, adapt to climate change, and protect the environment. Croatia aims to strengthen environmental protection and climate action, increase the resilience of the sector and improve the quality of life in rural areas. Climate change measures include adapting and mitigating climate change, promoting sustainable natural resource management, and protecting biodiversity (Ministry of Agriculture, 2022) [13]. Like other European countries, Croatia has developed a National Adaptation Strategy and National Action Plan [14].

The Adaptation Strategy to Climate Change in the Republic of Croatia until 2040 with an outlook to 2070 (onwards Adaptation Strategy) emphasized the main objectives, priority measures, and financial framework for the implementation of adaptation measures to climate change [15]. The Adaptation Strategy proposes a total of 83 measures divided into three groups—climate modeling, knowledge and capacity strengthening, and the development of indicators to measure the impact of adaptation strategy implementation. The strategies for agricultural sectors according to the Adaptation Strategy are the implementation of the experimental research program on climate change adaptation in agriculture, increasing the water storage and capacity of agricultural soils, and applying appropriate soil management (e.g., conservation tillage and other reduced tillage methods); the cultivation of species and varieties of agricultural crops and domestic animal breeds that are more resistant to climate change; the incorporation of climate change risks into the development of irrigation systems; the application of erosion control measures the restoration and construction of the melioration drainage system; and agricultural insurance against production losses caused by adverse climatic conditions.

Adriatic Croatia and climate change were studied within the project “Agrobiodiversity—the basis for adaptation and mitigation of climate change impacts in agriculture”. The project aims to conduct applied research in the vulnerable sectors of agriculture, natural ecosystems, and biodiversity, and to explore the opinion of agricultural stakeholders on climate change and adaptation measures in Adriatic Croatia.

The main objective of this study was to assess the opinion of policymakers at the regional and national levels in Adriatic Croatia regarding climate change adaptation strategies. This study has three objectives: (i) to rank the importance of adaptation measures; (ii) to examine measures that have already been implemented; and (iii) to examine future measures that need to be implemented at the regional and national levels.

Research examining policymakers’ opinions on adaptation strategies is scarce, while research on farmers’ perceptions of climate change risk and adaptation strategies is widespread [12,16,17,18,19,20].

2. Materials and Methods

Data for the research purpose were collected using a qualitative method, namely in-depth interviews. Researchers have chosen this approach due to the limited number of available research on policymakers in agriculture in view of climate change. For this reason, in-depth interviews were used to gain a broader grasp of the experience [21] using climate change adaptation measures by policymakers.

2.1. Data Collection

Research has focused on policymakers in the agriculture sector with intent to study policy actions toward climate change reduction measures. Policymakers are individuals involved in design of public policies at regional and national levels and by sectoral agencies. Selection of individuals to participate in the interview took into account the fact that a person represented a specific body making agricultural and rural development policy decisions focusing on climate change adaptation measures.

Data collection was conducted between March and June 2021 in Jadranska Hrvatska/Adriatic Croatia (Figure 2). Adriatic Croatia was taken as a target area because climate change is more pronounced here as it is part of the Mediterranean Basin. The used semi-structured in-depth interviews consisted of open-ended questions with the addition of a closed question where climate change adaptation measures were offered, and subjects were to rank them according to importance. The questionnaire is divided into four parts. The first part relates to basic sociodemographic data, and the second part to ranking of offered climate change adaptation measures; the third part of the questionnaire is open-ended questions about measures that policymakers are implementing, and the fourth part is about measures they plan to implement. Prior to conducting the interview, respondents were contacted through official contacts of their services, where they were told the purpose of the investigation. On the day of the interview, during personal contact between the researcher and the respondent, the respondents signed a statement agreeing to participate in the interview, and the statement itself guarantees anonymity when analyzing the data and publishing the results. The interviews lasted, on average, 30–50 min. The interviews were recorded and later listened to by researchers and transcribed. This procedure identifies keyword saturation, i.e., the possibility of verifying whether the size of the qualitative sample is large enough [22].

2.2. Data Analysis

Interviews were conducted in Croatian, while for the purpose of writing the paper, those statements mentioned later in the paper were translated into English. When quoting the statements of the respondent per se, abbreviations for identification were used (e.g., IN10_NG_53 meaning interview 10, National Government representative 53 years). The researchers listened to the audio material from the interview and transcribed it. Transcribed material was the basis for entry into the NVivo 12 analysis software. The data entered were organized and categorized using the software program. Categories were developed and analyzed in the context of previously identified codes. Respondents were added to the identified approach to climate change measures. The issue of sociodemographic characteristics and the question of where climate change adaptation measures are offered are addressed in the software program SPSS var. 24 using descriptive statistics.

2.3. Data Validation

In order to ensure the validity and traceability of the data and, ultimately, the accuracy of the presented results in the paper, a follow-up consultation approach was used with the participants of the interview [23].

After the analysis of collected data had been completed, they were presented in descriptive and graphic patterns. The researchers contacted the interviewers to review the results obtained to confirm that they were in line with their opinions expressed in the interviews. A similar methodological process is used in the paper by [24], where interviews are conducted with relevant stakeholders, decision makers, and policymakers on the impact of climate change on health and agriculture. The procedure was conducted through a short conversation via video call between the researcher and the respondent. Respondents concluded that the presentation of the results was in line with their statements made in the interviews.

3. Results and Discussion

A total of 33 policymakers participated in the interviews. Of these, 15 were from Sectoral Agencies (SA), 8 were from National Government (NG), and 10 were from Regional Government (RG). Subjects were aged 31 to 64 and were predominantly male (Figure 3).

3.1. Ranking the Risk Adaptation Climate Change Measures

A set of 15 risk adaptation climate change measures was offered to subjects, and they ranked the measures according to importance. The measures offered represent three categories: (1) production structure adaptation measures (PSAM), (2) production technology adaptation measures (PTAM), and (3) risk adaptation measures (RAM). Production structure adaptation measures refer to measures related to production (changing the production structure, targeting organic production, etc.). Production technology adaptation measures are measures related to agricultural technology and tillage. On the other hand, risk adaptation measures are risk reduction measures in the form of crop insurance and establishing a public hail damage prevention system and public irrigation system.

Policymakers consider the production technology adaptation measures (PTAM) and production structure adaptation measures (PSAM) the most important, and rank them at the top according to importance (

Table 1. Ranking the risk adaptation climate changes measures by policymakers.

Climate Change Measures	Rank
Application of irrigation (PTAM)	1
Targeting organic production (PSAM)	2
Crossbreeding crops (PSAM)	3
Optimization of agro-technical operations based on new climate situations (PTAM)	4
More frequent crop insurance (RAM)	5
Public co-financing of insurance premiums (RAM)	6
Shift to new cropping area (PSAM)	7
Changing the production structure (more resistant varieties) (PSAM)	8
Timely communication on climate change (RAM)	9
Increase production area (PSAM)	10
Increased use of pesticides (PTAM)	11
Construction of public irrigation system (RAM)	12
Access to more favorable insurance policies for farmers (RAM)	13
Application of wider crop rotation (PTAM)	14
Reduced tillage (PTAM)	15

).

The most important measure is the application of irrigation, organic production, crossbreeding crops, and optimization of agro-technical operations based on new climate situations. The most important risk adaptation measure (RAM) is frequent crop insurance. After setting ranks according to the importance of the measures offered, respondents commented on their responses.

“The use of irrigation in certain phases of plant development can be crucial for ensuring the intended yield. Due to climate change, long periods of drought are often exchanged during the summer, and in many cases a small amount of water is sufficient at certain times, which can be ensured by irrigation”.

(IN2_RG_43)

“Irrigation is an important measure in our climate due to frequent droughts, it is important to have the possibility of irrigating crops, it is also the most important measure that can currently respond to climate change”.

(IN15_SA_58)

Subjects ranked and targeted organic production high as a measure for the adaptation to climate change, explaining the following:

“Organic farming is the future of agriculture … it operates in accordance with nature, which is an effective response to climate change”.

(IN8_RG39)

“When choosing varieties for cultivation in organic agriculture, great attention is paid to the choice of production area and sorting … traditionally, varieties resistant to diseases and pests, locations shaded with sun and enough wind are chosen, which can also be effective due to the effects of climate change”.

(IN28_SA_61)

3.2. Conducted Activities for Climate Change Adaptation in Agriculture

The most important role of policymakers is to make decisions for application in a particular sector. Climate change has recently been one of the leading issues in agriculture, and respondents were asked to indicate which activities they have implemented to mitigate the consequences of climate change. Based on the categorization of the responses obtained, the scheme shown in Figure 4 was formed.

The largest number of measures implemented relate to the implementation of education, sharing information, and consultation.

“This measure is intended for farmers and the general public … education is conducted in a group form of workshops where information on the possibility of applying certain measures that will minimize the consequences of climate change such as selection of new varieties, application of irrigation …”.

(IN14_SA_52)

“We apply individual consultations because we are often on the ground with farmers … this is a good approach because we encounter concrete problems on the ground, and we can help farmers with advice”.

(IN4_RG_41)

“We are monitoring pests, diseases, and climate excesses and timely information producers so they can act in time to preserve crops”.

(IN7_SA_46)

“In addition to training for farmers, we are focused on educating students in secondary agricultural schools in order to direct future farmers about the importance of measures to mitigate the consequences of climate change”.

(IN14_SA_52)

Then, measures, including system construction and development, are implemented. Under this category, respondents are preventative about building public and private irrigation systems, setting up meteorological stations to monitor atmospheric conditions, and using digital tools to share information in real time.

“Through European Union (EU) funds, we have provided funding for the construction of a public irrigation system, which will provide farmers with the possibility of watering crops”.

(IN_30_RG_42)

“Through the EU funds we have achieved support for setting up agro-meteorological stops in the county in order to monitor weather changes more efficiently and inform farmers“.

(IN7_SA_46)

Policymakers apply the financing and subsidies measure by providing funding and subsidies through public calls for various measures that producers can utilize to defend themselves more effectively against climate change.

“We subsidize the construction of solar panels on agricultural facilities, whose energy is often used by farmers to drive pumps for the purpose of irrigation systems”.

(IN3_NG_55)

“We are refunding part of the insurance premium for plantation insurance from late spring nets that are very common with us … producers pay insurance, and we refund 70% of the insurance premium to them … producers are very satisfied with this measure, and we have noticed that since we are refunding more producers are opting for plantation insurance”.

(IN7_SA_46)

“When choosing a project in agriculture that we will subsidize, we choose those Who have a focus on renewable energy sources, and installation of mini-meteorological station in plantations”.

(IN14_SA_52)

Policymakers are also implementing various projects with the intention of obtaining results that will be useful in the process of adaptation to climate change.

“We have started the project of selecting old and indigenous varieties of vines and olives because they pre-place a valuable genetic material that has been successfully adapted to our climate, our intention is to provide such planting material for planting new plantations as soon as possible”.

(IN22_SA_37)

“We are conducting a lot of cross-border projects with neighboring countries with a focus on circular economy, adaptation to climate change, and the results obtained shared through the workshops with producers and other interested parties”.

(IN8_RG39)

3.3. Planned Activities for Climate Change Adaptation in Agriculture

In the interviews, respondents were asked what future climate change adaptation measures they plan to apply. After the categorization of obtained responses, an almost identical structure was obtained as in the previous passage of measures already in effect (Figure 5).

The most frequent measures to be applied are education, information, and consultation.

“In the future we plan to continue raising farmers’ awareness of the importance of adaptation to climate change through presentations and educations for both farmers and the population”.

(IN15_SA_58)

“Continuation of education aimed at sharing information on innovations in agriculture to adapt the consequences of climate change”.

(IN4_RG_41)

System construction and development measures will continue, mostly with a focus on irrigation.

“We plan to continue the construction of wells in the wider area of the county so that producers have as simple water available for irrigation of surfaces as possible”.

(IN2_RG_43)

“In the future, we plan to start a project to build irrigation systems”.

(IN4_RG_41)

It will also continue to be measured for financing and subsidies.

“The new programming period will include measures to adapt to climate change in agriculture, focus and major subsidies will be on organic agriculture and the introduction of irrigation”.

(IN14_SA_52)

“By 2023, the development strategy plans a number of measures and finalization with a focus on adaptation of the consequences of climate change such as the development of agricultural production in which traditional methods of cultivation coexist and modern techniques of adaptation to climate change, promotion of breeding of breeds and varieties that are more resistant to climate change”.

(IN2_RG_43)

“Organic farming will be further encouraged, through subsidies, by ensuring the branding of organic products, etc. …”.

(IN_30_RG_42)

Based on the results of the interviews, the authors investigated the opinion of policymakers on climate change adaptation strategies in Adriatic Croatia and which of them are applied at the regional or national levels. Representatives of sectoral agencies for agriculture were also interviewed. European Union countries have adopted strategies and measures at the EU level and have implemented similar measures. From the conducted study, it can be concluded that policymakers consider irrigation systems, organic production, crossbreeding of crops and optimization of agrotechnical practices, and agricultural insurance as the most important strategy.

On the other hand, the activities implemented by policymakers to promote climate change adaptation are education, information sharing, knowledge, and extension. The same is planned for future actions by policymakers. The main objective of education through written materials or training is to raise farmers’ awareness of climate change impacts and the importance of risk management before the risk itself occurs. The results of our study are similar to the previous literature; more specifically, policymakers consider production technology and structural measures important [10,11]. As noted by [11], adaptation to climate change is important for the future viability of agricultural production.

Ever-evolving climate change necessitates the development of new risk management tools to deal with risks and uncertainties. The development of mutual funds, income or revenue stabilization programs, and parametric insurance is needed for future (systemic) risks. The authors believe that the establishment of a Hub for Risk Management in Agriculture can be a starting point for research on increasingly significant systemic risks and adaptation strategies, and work on the introduction of innovative strategies in agriculture. Such a hub should be modeled on the Risk Management Education Centers in the USA (USDA—National Institute of Food and Agriculture). Farmers and policymakers would benefit from such a hub and scientific results. This hub would also help bridge the gap that the research of [25] found, where policymakers are currently making poor use of science and scientists’ work. The above can be used by other countries to promote farmer risk management and build rural resilience.

4. Conclusions

To cope with climate change in agriculture, it is important to apply appropriate adaptation measures that ensure a regular income. The main objective of this study was to examine the importance of individual adaptation measures and the types of measures that are already being applied and will be applied in the future to climate change adaptation. The target audience of this study was policymakers, as agents who manage and implement strategies. Data were collected through in-depth interviews with a sample of policymakers at the national and regional levels and with sectoral agencies. This study was conducted in the area of Adriatic Croatia, as it is more affected by climate change compared to the rest of Croatia. In conducting this study, the researchers found that the following adaptation measures were ranked highest by policymakers: (i) application of irrigation, as a measure from the category production technology adaptation measures; (ii) targeting organic production, as a measure from the category production structure adaptation measures; and (iii) more frequent crop insurance as from the category risk adaptation measures. On the other hand, respondents were asked about the measures they are implementing and those they plan to implement to mitigate the effects of climate change. It is interesting to note that implemented and planned measures overlap, suggesting that policymakers consider these measures important and effective. The most important measure is to educate, inform, and share concrete advice on how to successfully address climate change. Other important measures include the construction and development of systems, the implementation of financial support to reimburse part of the insurance premium, as well as the co-financing of various projects to adapt more effectively to climate change. At the end of the study conducted, the authors conclude that policymakers are serious about finding solutions to mitigate the effects of climate change in agriculture, as they have included in their portfolio a number of measures that policymakers consider effective:

“The measures we are implementing to mitigate the effects of climate change are in line with those proposed by the EU, and the feedback we have received from farmers shows that they are satisfied with the proposed package of measures, especially the education and financing measures”.

(IN3_NG_55)