A Study on the Dynamic Evolution Paths of Social Risks in PPP Projects of Water Environmental Governance—From the Vulnerability Perspective
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Literature Review
2.1. Social Risks in PPP Projects
2.2. The Relationship between Vulnerability and Risks
2.3. The Generation of Social Risks in PPP Projects of Water Environmental Governance
2.4. The Diffusion of Social Risks in PPP Projects of Water Environmental Governance
3. Methodology
3.1. System Dynamics Method
3.2. Identification of Vulnerability Driving Factors in PPP Projects of Water Environmental Governance
3.3. Construction of Causal Loop Diagram
3.4. Construction of Stock–Flow Model
3.5. Case Study
3.6. Weight Determination
4. Research Results
4.1. Simulation Analyses
4.2. Sensitivity Analyses
4.3. Result Discussions
5. Conclusions and Suggestions
5.1. Conclusions
5.2. Theoretical Implications
5.3. Suggestions
6. Research Limitations
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Primary Influencing Factors | Secondary Influencing Factors | Third Influencing Factors |
---|---|---|
Exposure (anti-interference ability) | Relevant Legal Systems | PPP project policies |
Risk response experience and mechanism | ||
Project supervision mechanism | ||
Project evaluation system | ||
Project approval system | ||
System Stability | Project integrity | |
Responsible for government stability | ||
Stability of project company personnel | ||
Partnership | Participant partnership | |
Personnel communication efficiency | ||
Competence Indicators | Quality of materials and equipment | |
Qualification of participants | ||
Relevant experience of participants | ||
Participant related talents | ||
Familiarity with construction technology | ||
Sensitivity (degree of impact) | Project Goal Setting | Setting water environment goals |
Setting social goals | ||
Fund Recovery Capability | Subsidy during operation period | |
Project operation capability | ||
Business environment | ||
Social support | ||
Project Properties | Project scale | |
Project investment amount | ||
Financing structure | ||
Adaptability (resilience) | Resource Reserve | Participant technical reserve |
Participant talent reserve | ||
Participant fund reserve | ||
Restore Elasticity | Education and training efforts | |
Design capacity | ||
Project management capability |
Factors | Expect 1 | Expect 2 | Expect 3 | Expect 4 | Expect 5 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
PPP project policy | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
Risk response experience and mechanism | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Project supervision mechanism | 3 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
Project evaluation system | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
Project approval system | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
Primary Influencing Factors | Secondary Influencing Factors | Third Influencing Factors | Weight |
---|---|---|---|
Exposure (0.4020) | Relevant Legal Systems (0.2016) | PPP project policy | 0.2404 |
Risk response experience and mechanism | 0.2753 | ||
Project supervision mechanism | 0.2091 | ||
Project evaluation system | 0.1080 | ||
Project approval system | 0.1672 | ||
System Stability (0.3087) | Project integrity | 0.2356 | |
Stability of project company personnel | 0.3029 | ||
Education and training efforts | 0.0817 | ||
Stability of project company personnel | 0.3798 | ||
Partnership (0.2428) | Participant partnership | 0.5664 | |
Personnel communication efficiency | 0.4336 | ||
Competence Indicators (0.2469) | Quality of materials and equipment | 0.2244 | |
Relevant experience of participants | 0.2475 | ||
Participant related talents | 0.2640 | ||
Familiarity with construction technology | 0.2640 | ||
Sensitivity (0.2965) | Project Goal Setting (0.1951) | Setting water environment goals | 0.5208 |
Setting social goals | 0.4792 | ||
Fund Recovery Capability (0.3232) | Subsidy during operation period | 0.3265 | |
Project operation capability | 0.2163 | ||
Business environment | 0.2571 | ||
Social support | 0.2000 | ||
Project Properties (0.4817) | Project scale | 0.4048 | |
Project investment amount | 0.4702 | ||
Financing structure | 0.1250 | ||
Adaptability (0.3015) | Resource Reserve (0.3828) | Participant technical reserve | 0.2727 |
Participant talent reserve | 0.3011 | ||
Participant fund reserve | 0.4261 | ||
Restore Elasticity (0.6172) | Design capacity | 0.3952 | |
Project management capability | 0.6048 |
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Chen, X.; Zhao, Y.; Xue, S. A Study on the Dynamic Evolution Paths of Social Risks in PPP Projects of Water Environmental Governance—From the Vulnerability Perspective. Sustainability 2024, 16, 3951. https://doi.org/10.3390/su16103951
Chen X, Zhao Y, Xue S. A Study on the Dynamic Evolution Paths of Social Risks in PPP Projects of Water Environmental Governance—From the Vulnerability Perspective. Sustainability. 2024; 16(10):3951. https://doi.org/10.3390/su16103951
Chicago/Turabian StyleChen, Xu, Ying Zhao, and Song Xue. 2024. "A Study on the Dynamic Evolution Paths of Social Risks in PPP Projects of Water Environmental Governance—From the Vulnerability Perspective" Sustainability 16, no. 10: 3951. https://doi.org/10.3390/su16103951