Assessing Climate Change Projections through High-Resolution Modelling: A Comparative Study of Three European Cities
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Data and Methods
2.1. Study Areas
2.2. The Modelling Setup and Evaluation
2.3. Climate Change Indices
3. Results and Discussion
3.1. Model Evaluation for Recent Past
3.2. Daily Mean, Maximum and Minimum Temperature
3.3. Climate Change Indices
4. Nature-Based Solutions Potential
5. Summary and Conclusions
Supplementary Materials
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Simulation Period | Eindhoven | Genova | Tampere |
---|---|---|---|
Recent past | 2013 | 2013 | 2012 |
Medium-term future | 2048 | 2051 | 2052 |
Index | Name | Definition |
---|---|---|
DTR | Daily Temperature Range | Difference between daily maximum and minimum temperatures |
SU | Summer days | Number of days where the daily maximum temperature is higher than 25 °C |
TR | Tropical nights | Number of days where the daily minimum temperature is higher than 20 °C |
ID | Icing days | Number of days where the daily maximum temperature is lower than 0 °C |
FD | Frost days | Number of days where the daily minimum temperature is lower than 0 °C |
Daily Average Temperature | Daily Precipitation | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
City | Name | r | Bias (°C) | RMSE (°C) | r | Bias (mm) | RMSE (mm) |
Eindhoven | Airport | 0.99 | 0.24 | 1.29 | 0.61 | 0.55 | 4.14 |
Genova | Bolzaneto | 0.98 | 0.38 | 1.26 | 0.75 | −0.29 | 7.57 |
Castellaccio | 0.99 | 2.14 | 2.44 | 0.60 | 1.84 | 11.63 | |
Centro Funzionale | 0.98 | −1.14 | 1.65 | 0.63 | 0.74 | 8.56 | |
Gavette | ---- | ---- | ---- | 0.66 | 0.01 | 9.09 | |
Pegli | 0.98 | −1.22 | 1.85 | ---- | ---- | ---- | |
Pontedecimo | 0.99 | 0.23 | 1.28 | 0.75 | 0.30 | 8.70 | |
Tampere | Harmala | ---- | ---- | ---- | 0.55 | 5.38 | 14.17 |
Airport | 0.99 | 1.42 | 2.17 | ---- | ---- | ---- | |
Siilinkari | 0.99 | −0.83 | 1.73 | ---- | ---- | ---- |
DJF | MAM | JJA | SON | ANNUAL | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Tmean (°C) | Eindhoven | +0.94 | +0.70 | +0.29 | −1.03 | +0.26 |
Genova | +0.94 | −0.22 | −0.38 | −0.04 | +0.09 | |
Tampere | −2.92 | −1.25 | +1.77 | +0.95 | −0.31 | |
Tx (°C) | Eindhoven | +0.91 | +1.16 | +0.30 | −0.93 | +0.40 |
Genova | +0.94 | 0.00 | −0.57 | −0.26 | +0.04 | |
Tampere | −2.94 | −1.03 | +1.69 | +0.75 | −0.33 | |
Tn (°C) | Eindhoven | +0.73 | +0.32 | +0.05 | −1.27 | −0.01 |
Genova | +0.81 | −0.51 | −0.23 | +0.07 | +0.05 | |
Tampere | −2.87 | −1.40 | +1.77 | +1.13 | −0.29 |
Ref. | Location | Resolution (km2) | ∆Tmean (°C) |
---|---|---|---|
Paper Results | Eindhoven | 1 × 1 | 0.3 |
EURO-CORDEX * | Eindhoven | 12.5 × 12.5 | −3.5 |
KNMI [69] | Netherlands | 11 × 11 | 1 |
Lecœur et al. [70] | Netherlands | 50 × 50 | 0.5–1.5 |
Paper Results | Genova | 1 × 1 | 0.1 |
EURO-CORDEX * | Genova | 12.5 × 12.5 | 0.4 |
Cholakian et al. [66] | Western Mediterranean | 50 × 50 | 1.77 |
D’oria et al. [71] | Northern Italy | 12.5 × 12.5 | 1.5 |
D’oria et al. [72] | Northern Tuscany | 12.5 × 12.5 | 0.8 |
Lecœur et al. [70] | Italy | 50 × 50 | 0.5–1.5 |
Paper Results | Tampere | 1 × 1 | −0.3 |
EURO-CORDEX * | Tampere | 12.5 × 12.5 | 0.6 |
Ruosteenoja et al. [73] | Finland | 50 × 50 | 1.8 |
Lecœur et al. [70] | Finland | 50 × 50 | 0.5–1.5 |
DJF | MAM | JJA | SON | ANNUAL | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DTR (°C) (%) | Eindhoven | 4.47 | 8.18 | 8.22 | 6.56 | 6.88 |
(+4%) | (+11%) | (+3%) | (+5%) | (+6%) | ||
Genova | 4.25 | 5.45 | 4.96 | 4.90 | 4.89 | |
(+3%) | (+11%) | (−6%) | (−6%) | (+0%) | ||
Tampere | 3.08 | 5.05 | 5.61 | 3.43 | 4.30 | |
(−2%) | (+8%) | (−1%) | (−10%) | (−1%) | ||
SU (days per season) | Eindhoven | 0.00 | 2.41 | 22.60 | 4.01 | 29.02 |
(0.00) | (+2.37) | (+5.80) | (−8.13) | (+0.04) | ||
Genova | 0.00 | 0.05 | 25.03 | 0.97 | 26.04 | |
(0.00) | (−0.13) | (+6.50) | (−7.44) | (−1.06) | ||
Tampere | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.50 | |
(+0.00) | (+0.00) | (+0.50) | (+0.00) | (+0.50) | ||
TR (nights per season) | Eindhoven | 0.00 | 0.37 | 4.27 | 0.84 | 5.48 |
(+0.00) | (+0.37) | (+1.02) | (−3.10) | (−1.71) | ||
Genova | 0.00 | 0.00 | 27.51 | 7.31 | 34.83 | |
(+0.00) | (+0.00) | (−0.63) | (−5.81) | (−6.43) | ||
Tampere | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
(+0.00) | (+0.00) | (+0.00) | (+0.00) | (+0.00) | ||
ID (days per season) | Eindhoven | 6.41 | 1.46 | 0.00 | 4.24 | 12.11 |
(−0.56) | (+1.46) | (+0.00) | (+4.24) | (+5.14) | ||
Genova | 1.93 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.93 | |
(−0.78) | (+0.00) | (+0.00) | (+0.00) | (−0.78) | ||
Tampere | 61.23 | 26.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 88.00 | |
(+12.87) | (+14.51) | (+0.00) | (−15.23) | (+12.16) | ||
FD (days per season) | Eindhoven | 24.80 | 6.58 | 0.00 | 8.67 | 40.06 |
(−7.24) | (+4.95) | (+0.00) | (+8.18) | (+5.89) | ||
Genova | 11.20 | 0.44 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 11.73 | |
(−4.22) | (−0.73) | (+0.00) | (−0.13) | (−5.09) | ||
Tampere | 75.93 | 40.90 | 0.00 | 5.32 | 122.15 | |
(+2.24) | (−2.78) | (+0.00) | (−16.35) | (−16.89) |
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Ascenso, A.; Augusto, B.; Coelho, S.; Menezes, I.; Monteiro, A.; Rafael, S.; Ferreira, J.; Gama, C.; Roebeling, P.; Miranda, A.I. Assessing Climate Change Projections through High-Resolution Modelling: A Comparative Study of Three European Cities. Sustainability 2024, 16, 7276. https://doi.org/10.3390/su16177276
Ascenso A, Augusto B, Coelho S, Menezes I, Monteiro A, Rafael S, Ferreira J, Gama C, Roebeling P, Miranda AI. Assessing Climate Change Projections through High-Resolution Modelling: A Comparative Study of Three European Cities. Sustainability. 2024; 16(17):7276. https://doi.org/10.3390/su16177276
Chicago/Turabian StyleAscenso, Ana, Bruno Augusto, Sílvia Coelho, Isilda Menezes, Alexandra Monteiro, Sandra Rafael, Joana Ferreira, Carla Gama, Peter Roebeling, and Ana Isabel Miranda. 2024. "Assessing Climate Change Projections through High-Resolution Modelling: A Comparative Study of Three European Cities" Sustainability 16, no. 17: 7276. https://doi.org/10.3390/su16177276