Public Perception of Drought and Extreme Rainfall Impacts in a Changing Climate: Aconcagua Valley and Chañaral, Chile

Abstract

Droughts and extreme rainfall events are two of the hazards that affect many people in the world and are frequent and complex hazards, the rate of occurrence and magnitude of which are expected to increase in a changing climate. In this context, understanding how different actors perceive changes in climate, drought, and extreme rainfall events and their impacts is relevant in contributing to successfully implementing adaptation strategies to reduce their impacts. This research seeks to explore the main changes the climate has undergone and the impacts of drought and precipitation events, as perceived at local levels by different stakeholders. A multi-method approach was applied, including qualitative methods such as observation, 51 semi-structured interviews, and document reviews in Chañaral and the Aconcagua Valley, Chile. This research shows what the perceived changes in climate are and that drought and extreme rainfall events have affected the well-being of the local people by severely impacting the economy, the environment, social interactions, quality of life, and human health. Additionally, the perception of climate change and its impacts vary depending on the type of hazard and the social, geographical, and environmental contexts in which communities live. This study is useful as it has generated knowledge relevant to inform policy decisions, practice, and theory.

1. Introduction

Drought and extreme rainfall events are complex hazards (with slow onset that is often difficult to detect in the case of droughts), which produce long-lasting effects and losses and damages that result in significant economic losses. While hazards such as droughts and extreme rainfall events are often caused by natural climate variability, their intensity and frequency have increased in recent decades [1]. This trend is expected to continue throughout the 21st century as a result of climate change [2,3,4,5], with extreme events becoming more widespread and pronounced with every increment of global warming [6]. Droughts and extreme rainfall events are two of the natural hazards that are affecting many people in the world [7]. Although their consequences can be well predicted in many cases, preventive strategies are frequently insufficient in order to avoid serious impacts. There are increasing gaps between the adaptation action taken and what is needed, and these gaps are wider among lower income populations and are expected to grow [6]. Failure to adapt to drought, especially in the context of climate change, results in and will continue to have negative consequences. For example, reductions in employment in rural areas, decreases in food availability, and increases in prices of food have financial impacts for farmers, driving a significant number of people into poverty and triggering migration from rural to urban areas [8,9,10,11]. On the other hand, not adapting to extreme rainfall events could cause property damage and displacement, which amplify social and economic inequalities [12,13,14].

The study of the public perception of climate change impacts, such as drought and extreme rainfall events, can contribute to the successful implementation of adaptation strategies to reduce their impacts and disasters [15]. An understanding of the public’s sensitivity to and conceptualization of droughts and extreme rainfall events and their effects, as well as public perception of the way droughts and extreme rainfall events relate to climate change, has the potential to support the definition of what can be done, who is going to do it, who will benefit from the action, and how it will be evaluated. This is also important considering that what people perceive about complex environmental problems such as climate change does not necessarily mirror scientific findings or calls for action [16,17,18]. Although in Latin America and Chile in particular there is not a significant amount of climate change denial, some evidence shows critical issues such as the perception of control over climate change impacts or perception of responsibility for implementing climate action do vary within the population [19]. This is despite scientific communications emphasizing that there is still time to prevent worst-case scenarios and the importance of multilevel climate action.

Thus, further research is required to understand public perception and adaptation strategies while recognizing current adaptation actions, willingness to incorporate new actions, barriers to behavioral changes, and ways to overcome these barriers in order to improve adaptive capacity and avoid disasters [20,21,22,23]. A series of studies aimed at understanding what drives individuals to take action to adapt to drought and extreme rainfall events have concluded that people who perceive these hazards as potential risks are more likely to incorporate adaptation strategies than those who do not [24,25,26,27]. Additionally, the literature states that socioeconomic conditions and resource constraints are the main determinants of drought and other climate-related hazards risk adaptation and indicates that a shared understanding of these hazards allows public and private stakeholders to coordinate actions to deal with drought and extreme rainfall events impacts [28,29,30].

One of the main impacts of climate change in Chile is a change in precipitation patterns; the climate of central Chile is already evidencing warming and drying trends [2,31,32], which has caused a “mega drought” with a geographic extension and duration that has unprecedented occurrence in instrumental and paleo records [33,34]. Around 25% of the precipitation deficit observed in this period can be attributed to anthropogenic drivers of climate change [2]. A significant decrease in precipitation and reduced river flows in the Aconcagua basin have been exacerbated by an increasing demand for water by the agriculture and forestry sectors, which has contributed to the development of the agro-industrial economy but has affected the normal water cycle [35]. Water is not only dependent on the amount of rain—it is also tied to Chile’s highly unequal system of water rights and distribution [36]. The government and society in general need to be prepared regardless of the origin of the drought.

In addition, extreme rainfall events have become more severe and frequent [1]. One of these events, which occurred between the 24th and 26th of March 2015 in Chañaral, Chile, caused severe floods and landslides. Around 45 mm of precipitation was recorded, which is the highest amount registered since 1957 [37,38]. Extreme rainfall with similar characteristics occurred in Chañaral in 2017 [13]. In Chile, both droughts and extreme rainfall have resulted in severe impacts on the population, such as the loss of lives, injuries, and negative impacts on well-being and households [13,39,40,41]. There is therefore a call in Chile to reinforce responses and adaptation actions in order to adapt to this new reality and reduce disasters [42,43].

The Chilean government, despite being led by three different political coalitions in a decade, has made significant advances in terms of climate change adaptation and socio-natural climate-related disaster policies and policy instruments over the last 10 years [44,45]. Nevertheless, research on perceptions of climate change, extreme rainfall events, and drought has had a limited influence on climate change policy in Chile [46,47,48,49,50]. This situation reveals not only a relevant gap in the literature but also a deficient bottom-up approach to public policy development [51,52].

Different studies have shown that most people in Chile believe climate change is already happening, that it is caused totally or partially by human actions, and that the country is not prepared to deal with future climate impacts [19,53]. Among the main environmental changes, people mention changes in rainfall, the seasons of the year, and temperatures. Similarly, other studies have provided evidence of the psychological and mental health impacts the climate crisis is triggering in the population, with very high levels of concern, emotional responses mainly associated with worry, fear, rage, and sadness, and an emerging climate anxiety among the young population [54,55,56]. All this information should be considered by policymakers, especially to understand the importance of providing not only adequate technical responses but also appropriate ways to communicate them to encourage climate action without reinforcing a pessimistic vision of the future.

In the context of a dryer and warmer future, with more frequent and extreme rainfall events, understanding how different actors perceive changes in climate, drought, and extreme rainfall events and their impacts is relevant to informing policy and decision-making. The recent mega drought in Chile, with a quarter of the rainfall deficit attributed to climate change, and the two most severe extreme rainfall events that have occurred in the last 60 decades offer a synopsis of the future and thus a novel opportunity to study perceptions about drought and extreme rainfall events in the context of a changing climate. This research aims to explore the perceptions of different local-level stakeholders about changes to the climate and how drought and precipitation events have impacted their lives. Consequently, the research results are useful not only for informing theory but also to contribute to practice, by providing information that can be useful for policymakers and society in general for improving responses to drought and extreme rainfall events in the context of climate change.

The article is organized into five sections. Following the present introduction, the second section describes the methodology and presents the case studies. The third section presents an analysis of interview results, and the fourth section discusses these results and their implications for theory and practice and is followed by a conclusion.

2. Materials and Methods

The study presented in this paper is part of a broader project that aims to inform transformation theory and practice by unfolding the current incremental and transformational responses to the impacts of drought and extreme precipitation events in Chile in the context of climate change and to construct transformational pathways to address these impacts. A multi-method approach was applied in the project, including qualitative methods such as observation, semi-structured interviews, document review, and workshops.

The study presented here was conducted at the local level in four counties in Chile during 2022 and 2023, after 12 years of dry conditions and two extreme rainfall events that occurred in 2015 and 2017 that caused severe floods and landslides in the Chañaral, Atacama Region. In these four counties, we carried out a total of 51 interviews, and a content analysis was performed. The selection of local sites was based on the following criteria:

• Sites affected by the mega drought or extreme rainfall events that occurred in the last 10 years.
• Sites presenting vulnerability to drought and flooding or landslides.
• Sites differing geographically and socioeconomically.
• Accessibility to carry out interviews.

Four counties in two administrative regions of Chile were selected. These include Chañaral in the Atacama Region, Llay Llay, San Felipe, and Rinconada de Los Andes in the Valparaíso Region. The locations of these sites are shown in Figure 1 and Figure 2, and their basic demographic characterizations are presented in

Table 1. County characterization.

County	Total Inhabitants	% of the Urban Population	Main Sources of Employment (% of Working Force)
Rinconada de Los Andes	10,207	79	Agroforestry (31.3) Hotels and Restaurants (17.4) Entertainment activities (16.1)
San Felipe	76,844	90.6	Agroforestry (33.0) Public administration (13.9) Commerce (12.5)
LlayLlay	24,608	73.0	Agroforestry (38.1) Construction (15.5) Public administration (10.8)
Chañaral	12,219	90.7	Construction (46.7) Mining (13) Commerce (12)

Source: Compiled by the authors, based on information from [59,60].

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Document review and expert consultations were performed for the initial identification of key informants, with purposive and snowball sampling techniques used to complement this selection. To ensure sample diversity, potential interviewees were divided following the typology of actors proposed by Cornell et al. [61]: civil society, government organizations (local government and local government agencies), and private sector (e.g., agriculture, tourism, mining, and rural water sectors). Actors related to research and academic organizations were not included, as the selection of actors was based on the focus of the study, which was the individuals directly impacted by drought, extreme rainfall events, or directly involved in the implementation of responses at the local level. Actors who work at the regional level but manage local issues across the selected counties were also interviewed. A total of 51 semi-structured interviews were conducted between November 2022 and March 2023, with 24 interviews conducted in Chañaral and 27 interviews in the 3 counties of the Aconcagua Valley. Interviews lasted from 30 to 120 min and were conducted by two interviewers, one asking the questions and the other taking notes. The characterization of interviewees is presented in

Table 2. Characterization of interviewees.

	Actor Type 1			Age Range				Gender		County 2 and Region 3
Number of interviewees	CS	GO	PS	26–35	36–45	46–55	+55	M	F	RA	SF	LL	CH	VR	AR
	19	17	15	11	13	16	11	31	20	9	8	8	23	2	1

¹ Actor type: Civil society (CS); Government organizations (GO); Private sector (PS) ² Counties: Rinconada de Los Andes (RA), San Felipe (SF), Llayllay (LL), and Chañaral (C) ³ Region: Interviewees that work at the regional level but are responsible for managing local issues across the selected counties; Valparaíso Region (VR), and Atacama Region (AR).

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Semi-structured interviews were applied as the primary research method, given our goal of obtaining rich information. The interview questions were designed based on the literature and former studies in the area (e.g., [40,62,63,64]). The interviews first addressed whether the participants perceived changes in the climate or not. If so, they were asked what these changes were, as well as their perception of impacts caused by drought and extreme rainfall events in their territories, both impacts on the interviewees themselves and their natural and social environments. All participants signed informed consent before they participated in the interviews. The informed consent provided information about the objectives, methods, and expected risks of the study. The protocol was approved by the certified Ethics Committee of the Faculty of Social Science at the University of Chile.

Interviews were recorded, transcribed, and subsequently analyzed with ATLAS.ti 24. Content analysis was conducted to code and organize interview content into nodes. The first round of coding identified different topics discussed; these first hierarchy nodes were constructed based on questions asked during each interview regarding changes in climate and impacts (including impacts on the natural environment, the economy, as well as socio-economic impacts, among others).

Following thematic coding, open, analytical coding was performed to generate new categories (codes of the second hierarchy in the tree node). Analytical coding is an inductive and interpretative exercise where patterns are identified by juxtaposition rather than by a prescribed or linear method of analysis [65,66].

3. Results

Based on the interview analysis, the results are organized into two main subsections: changes in climate and the impacts of extreme rainfall and drought. To protect the interviewees’ identities, names were replaced by codes.

3.1. Changes in Climate

In this section, the results of the analysis of climate change perceptions are presented in

Table 3. Perceived changes in the climate of Chañaral and Aconcagua.

Type of Change	Perceived Changes in Chañaral’s Climate	Perceived Changes in Aconcagua’s Climate
Change in precipitation	An increase in frequency and intensity of rainfall and extreme rainfall events. Changes in rain cycles in terms of rain events at different times of the year compared to the past.	Continuous decrease in precipitation, with fewer rainfall events and reduced amount of rain. Simultaneously, there is an increase in extreme rainfall events.
Changes in wind	Increase in wind intensity. Decrease in sandstorms. Change in wind direction. Changes in wind cycles and their duration in terms of wind events occurring at different times of the year and lasting longer compared to the past.	Stronger wind currents.
Changes in fog/cloudiness	Increased cloudiness and changes in the trajectory of clouds.	No changes were identified.
Changes in seasons	Changes are identified in the number of seasons, perceiving only two seasons, winter and summer.	Changes are identified in the number of seasons, perceiving only two seasons, winter and summer.
Change in snowfall	Decrease in the total amount of snow.	Decrease in the total snow amount and frequency of snowfall, along with reduced snow accumulation due to early melting caused by higher temperatures.
Changes in swells	Increase in swell frequency. Rise in sea level.	Not described, these three study sites are not located near the coast.

, summarizing the interviewees’ observations regarding changes in their local climates. In Chañaral and the Aconcagua Valley, distinct shifts were identified in precipitations, wind, cloudiness, snowfall, and swell patterns. Overall, there is a shared perception of an increase in temperatures, a reduction to two seasonal cycles (winter and summer), and a rise in extreme rainfall events.

3.2. Impacts of Extreme Rainfall and Drought

In this section, the results of the analysis of drought and extreme rainfall perceived impacts are presented and divided into seven categories. These categories were constructed based on the literature (see, for example, [40,67,68,69]): (1) Impacts on the economy or employment; (2) Environmental impacts; (3) Conflicts, weakening of social capital, or quality of life; (4) Health; (5) Impacts on the urban environment; (6) Impacts on access to basic supplies; (7) Impacts on people’s movement or displacement (Figure 3).

Results show that inhabitants of the three counties of Aconcagua Valley identified only negative impacts from drought in their territory. However, a few positive impacts on the environment from extreme rainfall were mentioned in Chañaral.

3.2.1. Impacts on the Economy or Employment

Aconcagua Valley

The most frequently mentioned impact (96.3%) was the economy or employment. In particular, agriculture was the main productive activity impacted by drought as indicated by interviewees. Among the agricultural impacts identified, the most frequently mentioned were those related to the loss of crops and animals, a decrease in the quality, quantity, and diversity of food production, a reduction of irrigated land, and the impossibility of seeding on traditional dates. These impacts have resulted in a decrease in farmers’ incomes and an increase in irrigation costs.

“I started losing many crops. I planted, but there wasn’t water when they were in bloom… a loss… so sometimes the number don’t add up. If you live off this, well…”.

(Private Sector, Aconcagua Valley, E7)

The decrease in incomes has affected both large-scale and small-scale farmers, who in some cases have had to abandon their farming activities. It is important to mention that interviewees describe small-scale farming as the activity most severely affected by drought; it is facing the risk of disappearing.

“Here, the most affected is the small farmer, (…) and unfortunately, Rinconada is an agricultural area that needs water. I mean, no water, no production, no production, we don’t have work”.

(Civil Society, Aconcagua Valley, E4)

Additionally, there has been a decrease in the demand for agricultural labor, accompanied by an intensification of labor during short periods of water availability. Drought has also affected household economies; as product prices have increased, the cost of living has gone up.

“Of course, it also affects the food… because with less water, umm… they plant less… fewer vegetables… and that raises the price, and with that, the people suffer”.

(Private Sector, Aconcagua Valley, E6)

Chañaral

Inhabitants identified significant impacts that floods caused by the extreme rainfall that occurred in 2015 and 2017, which affected the local economy and employment (62.5%). One sector affected was medium and small businesses that suffered complete devastation, losing their shops and products. Another sector affected was small-scale fishing, with the loss of boats and seafood restaurants.

“Well, we were here in the center, obviously we had a smaller business when we started, (…) and the flood passed through there, everything was flooded, and we lost everything”.

(Private Sector, Chañaral, EV)

During the extreme rainfall events, educational institutions, commerce, and mining sector operations were all shut down, thereby exacerbating economic downturns and impacting job stability.

“Yes, here, for example, the same thing happens, rain announcement… no one goes to school (…), and there are many jobs where people don’t go to work”.

(Chañaral, Government Organization, EA)

Chañaral experienced significant damage to public infrastructure, and many houses were lost. As a result, the local government faced an intensified workload in response to the emergency, as well as in the subsequent recovery and reconstruction processes.

3.2.2. Environmental Impacts

Aconcagua Valley

Interviewees identified environmental impacts with the second highest frequency (81.5%). They described how the valley landscape has undergone a transformation, transitioning from an area with a predominance of forests, crops, and wildlife to dry hills and hectares covered with solar panels.

“… the flora and fauna of the areas have been affected. What was there 10 years ago no longer exists. So, it’s a pretty drastic change if we talk about 10 years. Ten years ago, you could go to a pond, go to a wetland, and now you can’t, it’s a desert”.

(Government Organization, Aconcagua Valley, E13)

Interviewees also recognized a decrease in avifauna, insects, and terrestrial species. In addition, the sclerophyllous forest is diminishing, which is the endemic forest of the central area of Chile recognized as highly drought-resistant. This is increasing the perception of new and uncommon climatic conditions.

Water bodies, including surface water and groundwater, as well as rain, were frequently mentioned as elements impacted by the drought and which have decreased in volume, extension, or frequency.

Chañaral

One of the most frequently identified impacts relates to the environment (75%). As described by the interviewees, extreme rainfall and floods have caused significant destruction in the area, such as the accumulation of sediments and the formation of sinkholes along the coastline.

“There was a total modification of the landscape in the Pan de Azúcar ravine because it was a valley and now, we have a sinkhole”.

(Government Organization, Chañaral, EF)

The accumulation of sediments within river systems and along coastlines has altered the course of natural watercourses and created new land formations. These changes have also affected the quality and diversity of local ecosystems, with implications for the animals and plant species that inhabit these environments.

The interviewees also mentioned some positive changes in local ecosystems as a consequence of these events. They identified the formation of a new coastal wetland, which has created new habitats that attract various species of fauna, such as ducks and river shrimps, which were not previously observed in the area.

“In fact, with everything that was carried and everything that fell, a wetland was created. We now have a wetland, where wild ducks arrive, and many little animals come that weren’t seen before”.

(Civil Society, Chañaral, EB)

In addition, the “flowering desert” phenomenon (the flowering desert phenomenon is a rare and brief blossoming of wildflowers in arid desert regions) has become more frequent and intense due to the higher intensity of rainfall over a short period. This phenomenon is of great importance to scientists and attracts many tourists to the area.

“Last year, we had a blooming desert that you can still see to this day. Well, there is almost nothing left, but even so, being January, you can see it, and that is because of what? Because of the constant rains that have occurred”.

(Private Sector, Chañaral, EZ)

3.2.3. Conflicts, Weakening of Social Capital, or Quality of Life

Aconcagua Valley

A total of 51.9% of the interviewees recognized impacts in the social dimension, which affect community relationships and life quality. Inhabitants described decreasing agricultural activity, which represents not just a loss of livelihood but also a way of life because community members or local people have a deep sense of belonging to their land and the natural environment in which they live. Additionally, the younger generations are increasingly reluctant to pursue agriculture as a source of income due to the considerable effort required because of water scarcity.

“Everyone else sold their plots (…) because they didn’t have a generational replacement. Why? Because the young people saw that there was no water”.

(Civil Society, Aconcagua Valley, E18)

Another important social impact is conflicts emerging because of drought. Interviewees acknowledged the existence of ongoing conflicts and disputes over water, which in some cases involve physical confrontations. These conflicts arise between neighbors, farmers from different sectors along the Aconcagua River, and water companies.

“And then it started happening that we could only irrigate two days a week, then one day a week, and then the day it was our turn to irrigate, the water wouldn’t come because a neighbor had blocked the canal and was taking the water, and there were arguments and fights, and suddenly a neighbor fighting with another with shovels, like ‘no, I irrigate’, things that had never been seen before”.

(Civil Society, Aconcagua Valley, E21)

Daily and work routines have had to be restructured because of the limited availability of water and high temperatures. On the one hand, due to the variability of water availability, they must schedule irrigation rotations late at night for extended periods.

On the other hand, the heat affects work, recreation, and downtime. Individuals have had to adapt their daily routines to take showers at different times due to fluctuations in water pressure.

“El Asiento was without water for about six months, and they were given water only at night. They had shifts, shifts to be able to turn on the water. They had to shower at five in the morning”.

(Government Organization, Aconcagua Valley, E14)

Chañaral

The social impacts are the second-most mentioned by interviewees in Chañaral (70.8%). Extreme rainfall events have severely impacted people’s lives, with inhabitants talking about social trauma resulting from the loss of lives and houses and the devastation caused by the 2015 flooding. People also experienced a profound sense of loss about personal mementos that deeply affected the lived experiences and cultural narratives of the families and communities.

“I have several relatives who were quite affected by the flood. I’m not very materialistic, but it must be hard water taking your house. It’s the house, but it’s also history. By history, ‘I got married here,’ ‘my first children were born here.’ The photos and the personal mementos were gone. In many cases, loved ones were lost”.

(Private Sector, Chañaral, EK)

The 2015 emergency demonstrated the capacity of the people of Chañaral to unite and support one another during crises, despite the enduring pain and fear that permeated their daily lives. However, the unequal distribution of humanitarian aid generated internal divisions, undermining solidarity and trust among neighbors.

“But the flood, I think, promoted mutual support and solidarity, and these were perceived in the first months, where everyone helped each other. The humanity of all the community members came out, and you didn’t feel alone or helpless because someone came to offer help”.

(Private Sector, Chañaral, ES)

Interviewees reported that extreme rainfall disrupted their daily routines and activities due to the city’s lack of preparedness for rain, resulting in flooding that divides the city in two. Schools typically close when it starts raining, and commercial activities come to a halt. The destruction of infrastructure and streets has significantly impacted individuals’ circulation around the city, as well as reducing participation in recreational and sports activities. For example, there has been a noticeable decline in the use of the coastal promenade, and facilities for sports activities have not yet been restored.

“Uh… the ways of living here have already changed, the city was split in two (…) the downtown of Chañaral disappeared completely. Therefore, there was a change in commerce, in people’s habits”.

(Public Sector, Chañaral, EW)

In addition, the interviewees described that the emergency highlighted and exacerbated preexisting vulnerabilities in the community. For instance, the disruption of school services significantly affected the educational trajectories of numerous children and adolescents, as well as access to social services assistance, such as school feeding programs. Furthermore, a few interviewees mentioned that post-emergency Chañaral was perceived as a more vulnerable county, resulting in increased attention and aid.

3.2.4. Impacts on Health

This section includes physical and mental health.

Aconcagua Valley

Drought is also adversely impacting the physical health and mental health of the inhabitants in the Aconcagua Valley. Mental health is being affected by the uncertainty surrounding water availability, both now and in the future, leading to significant stress, anxiety, and despair.

“What I’ve seen here is constant anxiety due to not knowing if there will be water or not, and that leads you to make super complex decisions in September or August, (…) and if there’s no water in October, when my plants are blooming, I’ve lost everything, the work, the effort, the time, the energy, the money”.

(Civil Society, Aconcagua Valley, E21)

Moreover, interviewees identified feelings of melancholy, frustration, and hopelessness among the population due to disruptions in daily routines, changes in their environments, and the loss of livelihoods and natural places of personal significance. Furthermore, interviewees described the emergence of fear in the population as hot summers approach, driven by the possibility that drought-dried grass could serve as fuel for wildfires in the area.

Depression has also been reported among interviewees, linked to factors such as the loss of the natural environment. It was mentioned by small farmers who, unable to irrigate their land, have been forced to lease their land to solar panel companies.

“And for me, getting up and seeing solar panels instead of fields also affects me. I mean, without falling into any cliché, but it’s painful because the countryside is… well, I moved from the city to live in the countryside. Clearly, living in the countryside has a value for me, seeing everything green around me, this tranquility, this silence, this security. As my surroundings have transformed and my neighbors are no longer the ones I knew, who planted crops, but a company installing panels, and the neighbor who planted is gone, it’s no longer the same tranquility, it’s not the same trust, we’re not the same people anymore”.

(Civil Society, Aconcagua Valley, E21)

Physical health was also affected. For instance, heatwaves are exacerbating physical health issues, particularly among people with preexisting conditions.

“With heat waves of up to 40°, 41°, we’re here in the house, and it’s unbearable. So, I say, gosh, how must it be for the people in the countryside? My husband works in construction, and one day he had to be up on the roof, and I was saying, please…”.

(Civil Society, Aconcagua Valley, E17)

Chañaral

Interviewees identified serious impacts on inhabitants’ health (65.2%); most mentioned mental health issues such as depression, stress, fear, and hopelessness, mainly derived from the traumatic experience of the 2015 event.

Interviewees describe that rain events, even if not as extreme as previous rainfall events, generate a constant state of alertness and fear among the population due to past events that resulted in numerous deaths and significant material and non-material losses.

“Well, the rains… first of all, psychologically, any rain affects here in Chañaral. I mean, with a drizzle, people here are already afraid. (…) Any rain means a potential flood for people, and that affects a lot. (…) I think no one from Chañaral has gotten over the flood since 2015. We all live with the flood there, here, here, everywhere”.

(Public Sector, Chañaral, EA)

Disappointment and depression are prevalent, and many have not been able to overcome the trauma of the 2015 flood, which affects both those who remain in Chañaral and those who have left. Older adults and women were more particularly vulnerable, falling into deep depressive states, which, as one interviewee mentioned, were comparable to the historical trauma of the Chilean dictatorship.

The community, although more united in times of crisis, has experienced a general decline in hope, with individuals no longer planning for the long term and living in fear of future disasters.

“… people from the community were emotionally affected because their personal mementos were gone, and a large part of the population was left without a home. Two years passed, and another flood came, and some people were affected again. The people who were here in the center were hit by the flood again, and so on. Emotionally, the town’s positivity also decreased”.

(Private Sector, Chañaral, EV)

Regarding physical health, power outages severely impacted those reliant on medical devices. Interviewees also identified an increase in new health issues, and the complex task of transporting individuals with urgent medical needs has placed further strain on the community.

3.2.5. Impacts on Urban Environment

Aconcagua Valley

The urban areas of the Aconcagua Valley have also been affected by drought. Interviewees (18.5%) reported a loss of trees in urban areas and public green parks.

“… urban area trees that dry out, that look stressed much faster…”.

(Government Organization, Aconcagua Valley, E13)

Additionally, in some cases, due to drought, they mentioned that people have chosen to sell the land for the development of residential areas, which is increasing urbanization.

Chañaral

The impacts of extreme rainfall on the urban environment were the second most frequently mentioned (70.8%). The main impact mentioned was the division of the county in two, affecting connectivity, both internally and with other cities.

“Chañaral is cut or divided by the Salado River, so we have one part of the city on one side of the river and the other part on the other side. Everything was cut off, and there was no way to communicate”.

(Private Sector, Chañaral, EZ)

In addition, the flooding destroyed many public buildings, homes, and roads, leading to the disappearance of an entire neighborhood and the necessity to relocate services and businesses.

3.2.6. Impacts on Access to Basic Supplies

Aconcagua Valley

Many interviewees identified drought impacting access to basic supplies (40.7%), specifically drinking water and food. People in many areas of Aconcagua Valley’s rural sectors receive water from “tanker trucks”. Rural Water Drinking Committees provide drinking water in rural communities, these committees are usually run by local residents. As rural communities are directly dependent on groundwater levels, they are prone to being affected by droughts.

“We had eight sectors that were without water, eight sectors of San Felipe that had to be supplied with tanker trucks because the Rural Water Drinking Committees [APR, in Spanish] didn’t have enough water to distribute. So, it was quite an exhausting year”.

(Government Organization, Aconcagua Valley, E13)

In addition, water scarcity is reducing the availability of vegetables and dairy products for family consumption due to a decrease in self and local production.

“There is a scarcity of products, they are not of the same quality as before. I remember (…), three years ago, I’m good with vegetables and always had my own harvest here at home, but I also bought a lot of cucumbers. (…) And the cucumbers were amazing, but now cucumbers are no longer like before, and the farmer who grows cucumbers said, ‘Well, we don’t have enough water, that’s why the cucumbers are… not good quality’”.

(Civil Society, Aconcagua Valley, E11)

Chañaral

Participants (29.2%) indicated that access to electricity, water, and food was severely affected. During the 2015 event, the disruption of the electrical supply persisted for several months, resulting in communication breakdowns. Furthermore, the city of Chañaral was divided by the floodwaters, which ran through its center.

“The flood practically divided Chañaral and left it without electricity, water, and almost without food for months”.

(Civil Society, Chañaral, ED)

3.2.7. Impacts on People’s Movement or Displacement

Aconcagua Valley

The inhabitants of the Aconcagua Valley did not mention impacts such as displacement or the movement of people because of the drought.

Chañaral

More frequent and intense rainfall in Chañaral has impacted the migration of people, according to the interviewees (29.2%). Fear of future catastrophic flooding events has driven inhabitants to move towards coastal areas and other cities. The increase in precipitation has activated previously inactive gullies, reinforcing the perception that Chañaral is a dangerous place to live. Consequently, there has been an exodus to coastal areas, and these individuals are now referred to as “climate migrants”.

“There was also climate migration. People moved because the climate changed. It started raining more, ravines began to flow, ravines that had never been active before, and it would rain a little, and those ravines would activate. So, people started to find Chañaral dangerous and moved elsewhere. They are climate migrants”.

(Private Sector, Chañaral, EK)

4. Discussion

The following section addresses the discussion of the principal findings of this study with the literature and policy implications, first regarding change in climate, and second related to the impacts of droughts and extreme rainfall events.

4.1. Changes in the Climate

The results show that Chañaral and Aconcagua Valley interviewees have noticed significant climatic changes in their territories over the last decade. The primary change mentioned includes a generalized increase in temperature. This perception aligns with global trends; since the pre-industrial era, global temperatures have been rising due to CO₂ emissions, a trend that is expected to continue [1]. In addition, interviewees perceived more extreme temperatures, both hot and cold, leading to the identification of only two seasons during a year, winter and summer.

Regarding precipitation, interviewees in Chañaral noted an increase in precipitation, while in the Aconcagua Valley participants observed a decrease in the annual precipitation. There is consensus between the perceptions of the interviewees and scientific findings regarding changes in the climate related to changing precipitation patterns, with a drying trend for the Aconcagua Valley [2,31,32]. Nonetheless, in both areas, there was a perception of increasing numbers of extreme rainfall events, indicating that such events are becoming more frequent and pronounced, which aligns with the literature for Chile and worldwide [6,13,37,38].

Recent research shows that while the majority of the Chilean population recognizes that climate change exists, the connection between the new climate patterns that are drivers of climate-related extreme events and climate change is not always made [15,19,53]. For instance, previous studies have shown that water demand for human use is also recognized as one of the main causes of drought, together with climate change [35,50,62,63,64,70]. Specifically, previous studies in the Aconcagua Valley concluded the same [40]. This shows that it is understood that the risks caused by a water deficit are not only due to causes associated with natural phenomena but also correspond to a social construct [71].

As previously mentioned, the findings of this research show that the inhabitants of Chañaral and Aconcagua Valley are both experiencing and aware of the changes in the climate. Droughts and extreme rainfall are also known as climatic conditions that have occurred in the territory, and the increase in frequency and magnitude of these events is not easy to communicate. The recognition of changes in the climate is a necessary condition for adaptation actions and preparedness to face extreme events and their impacts because when the population perceives climate change as real and impacting lives, more probably they can support adaptation [23,72]. Local knowledge about changes in climate is a complement to scientific knowledge and an opportunity to provide communication about climate change and its impacts in these two territories.

Research on what motivates individuals to change their behaviors concludes that individuals who recognize hazards as potential risks are more likely to implement adaptation responses compared to those who do not [24,26,27,73]. For this reason, stakeholders and policymakers should consider the public’s understanding of climate change to effectively incorporate adaptation strategies to respond to these extreme events.

4.2. Perceived Impacts

The results of this study indicate that drought and extreme rainfall events are severely impacting the lives of the inhabitants of Aconcagua Valley and Chañaral, primarily affecting the economy in the Aconcagua Valley and the environment in Chañaral. Additionally, these events challenge social cohesion by increasing conflicts and negatively affecting health, all of which contribute to exacerbating pre-existing vulnerabilities [21,40]. Therefore, both drought and extreme rainfall events should be addressed as socio-environmental problems requiring transformation not only of the built environment, the economy, and the productive sectors but also of social systems. These transformations should be targeted as long-term, sustainable adaptations to a new and rapidly changing climatic reality [74,75,76].

Drought and extreme rainfall are extreme climate events, and while there are some similarities in how people from the territories perceive the impacts, there are also some differences. In the Aconcagua Valley, interviewees identified impacts on the economy and the environment as the main impacts, whereas in Chañaral, they recognized the environment and urban areas as being most affected. Despite that difference, the interviewees consistently identified economic, environmental, social, and health impacts as their main concerns. The differences in which impacts are perceived as the most relevant in both territories could be explained not only because they are prone to different hazards, but also because of the adaptation capacities of the population and the different social and geographical contexts of the territories. For example, the environmental impacts of drought in the Aconcagua Valley are perceived by all interviewees as negative. In contrast, even if in Chañaral extreme rainfall events result in floods that cause significant destruction in the urban area, some interviewees noted that extreme rainfall positively affects the environment by providing water, a scarce resource in the territory. This influx of water led to more frequent occurrences of the flowering desert phenomenon and the formation of a new wetland, and could present an opportunity for adaptation, for example, through boosting the local economy based on tourism.

When talking about the social challenges faced by Chañaral and Aconcagua Valley, distinct patterns of conflict and community response emerge. In Aconcagua, the intensifying drought has mainly exacerbated conflicts over water resources between neighbors. In Chañaral, interviewees’ perceptions of the responses to extreme rainfall impact reveal a dual dynamic in the community. As noted by others [77,78], initially, these severe weather events activate solidarity and mutual aid, reflecting the emergence of social cohesion during crises. However, this positive response can be undermined by inadequate management of community assistance by the government and other organizations, which can lead to distrust. These social problems highlight the vulnerabilities and the social complexity when facing disaster and the importance of reinforcing social capital to improve adaptive capacity and preparation for extreme events [79,80].

As described in other studies [81,82,83], the increase in the frequency and magnitude of the extreme events have significantly affected inhabitants’ mental health, some of whom report experiencing fear, anxiety, hopelessness, and other types of emotional distress due to these climate crises. While drought leads to gradual and cumulative impacts on mental health, extreme rainfall events result in immediate and often more devastating impacts, highlighting the traumatic consequences of rapid-onset disasters. In Chañaral, extreme rainfall events abruptly and intensely disrupt the lives of the inhabitants, leading to trauma among the population. These findings demonstrate that the impacts of climate change on mental health are increasing and affecting the population in different ways. The identified emotional impacts, such as negative perspectives about the future and the fear that future extreme rainfall events could result in a disaster of great magnitude such as the one experienced in 2015, is an example of what is known as ecoanxiety [84]. Additionally, another way in which climate change is impacting mental health can be understood as solastalgia [85], stemming from the loss and transformation of the landscape due to the drought.

Regarding specifically the economic impacts of drought, the results show that in the Aconcagua Valley, the agricultural sector is the most vulnerable, which is consistent with much of the existing literature [11,86,87,88]. A particularly relevant impact that emerged strongly in this research is the interviewees’ perception of the progressive loss of small-scale farming. This shows that despite the well-documented impacts of drought in the area [40] current actions have been insufficient.

Concerning the impacts of extreme rainfall events in urban areas of Chañaral, interviewees identified that the city suffered being divided into two, leaving people isolated in their respective sides of the city. The loss of public and private infrastructure devastated the lives of the inhabitants of Chañaral. These impacts are well identified in the literature on extreme rainfall events [12,13,14] and specifically in Chañaral could be related to the incipient migration of people from the territory described by the interviewees. There is increasing evidence that climate events drive the migration of people who seek safer places to live or escape the devastation caused by extreme rainfall events [89].

These perceptions of impacts demonstrate that local people are aware of and are experiencing the consequences of climate change. Addressing drought and extreme rainfall events as socio-environmental problems requires not only considering economic and urban setting impacts but also other social impacts. This approach should reinforce social capital, build trust, and boost mental health programs to support and enhance community adaptation.

Public perception of impacts and the changes in the climate that interviewees identified in this study are vital for adaptation policies needed to improve the current adaptive actions and consider the specific realities of each context. The 2015 extreme rainfall event in Chañaral caused the death or disappearance of 47 people [13], and in the Aconcagua Valley, after more than one decade of drought, small farming is on the edge of extinction. Developing responses and strategies to reinforce adaptive capacity in a specific territory is fundamental and could save lives and livelihoods. Climatic conditions are increasing the frequency of climate-related disasters; hence, the dialogue between scientific evidence and people’s perception is crucial to communicating what is happening and what we can do to face this reality from a long-term perspective.

5. Conclusions

Understanding the public perception of drought and rainfall events is needed in the context of climate change, in which such events are increasing in frequency and magnitude. These complex natural hazards threaten the well-being of human society by severely impacting the economy, environment, social interactions, and quality of life, as well as human health. This research shows what changes in climate are perceived and how drought and extreme rainfall events have impacted the local level in the territories in the last few decades. The findings of this study demonstrate that inhabitants are aware of the new climate patterns, especially an increase in the temperatures and extreme rainfall events in Chañaral and a decrease in annual precipitation in the Aconcagua Valley. This recognition shows that people perceive the changes in climate conditions, and local knowledge is aligned with the scientific literature in this regard. This alignment provides a crucial first step toward coordinating efforts to understand climate change and enhance adaptation and preparedness.

The results also demonstrate that drought and extreme rainfall events are socio-environmental issues, exacerbated by climate change, that impact the living systems of a territory, and that perceptions of populations about climate change and their impacts vary depending on the type of hazard and the social, geographical, and environmental contexts in which communities live. Mental health, migration, and social impacts are emerging as prominent effects of extreme events, increasing the vulnerabilities of the communities, and should be considered in the reinforcement of the adaptation capacity of the territories. Consequently, public and private actions should be taken to reduce vulnerability and improve adaptation. Adaptation requires integrative solutions and can be enhanced if national and regional policies integrate the perception of local communities about climate change and its impacts and the actions already implemented at the local level, and in this way allow decision-makers to have a better understanding of local vulnerabilities and a greater chance for successful implementation of the actions required to face climate change. This study is useful in generating knowledge relevant to informing policy, practice, and theory.

Future studies should delve into understanding the relationship between perceived changes in the climate and the complex causality of these changes and how this understanding influences local people’s disposition to improve adaptation. It would also be valuable to contrast the results of this research with perspectives from central government actors, particularly those involved in planning adaptation policies.