Prediction of Potential Suitable Areas and Distribution Evolution of Phoebe zhennan under Different Climate Scenarios
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Species Data
2.2. Climate Data
2.3. Geographic Data
2.4. MaxEnt Ecological Niche Model
3. Results
3.1. Potential Suitable Areas for P. zhennan under Climatic Conditions Only
3.1.1. Predicted Results of Potential Suitable Areas for P. zhennan
3.1.2. Evaluation Indicators for the Prediction of Suitable Areas for P. zhennan
3.1.3. Analysis of Environmental Factors for the Prediction of P. zhennan’s Suitable Areas
3.2. Potential Suitable Areas for P. zhennan under Climatic and Geographical Conditions
3.2.1. Predicted Results of Potential Suitable Areas for P. zhennan
3.2.2. Evaluation Indicators for the Prediction of Suitable Areas for P. zhennan
3.2.3. Analysis of Environmental Factors for the Prediction of P. zhennan’s Suitable Areas
4. Discussion
4.1. Accuracy and Stability of the Predicted Results of the Model for the Potential Suitable Areas for P. zhennan
4.2. Analysis of Potential Suitable Areas for P. zhennan for Different Environmental Factors
4.3. Migration Paths of P. zhennan’s Potential Suitable Areas
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Code of Factor | Description for Factor (Unit) |
---|---|
b1 | Annual Mean Temperature (°C) |
b2 | Mean Diurnal Range (°C) |
b3 | Isothermality |
b4 | Temperature Seasonality |
b5 | Max Temperature of the Warmest Month (°C) |
b6 | Min Temperature of the Coldest Month (°C) |
b7 | Temperature Annual Range (°C) |
b8 | Mean Temperature of the Wettest Quarter (°C) |
b9 | Mean Temperature of the Driest Quarter (°C) |
b10 | Mean Temperature of the Warmest Quarter (°C) |
b11 | Mean Temperature of the Coldest Quarter (°C) |
b12 | Annual Precipitation (mm) |
b13 | Precipitation of the Wettest Month (mm) |
b14 | Precipitation of the Driest Month (mm) |
b15 | Precipitation Seasonality (mm) |
b16 | Precipitation of the Wettest Quarter (mm) |
b17 | Precipitation of the Driest Quarter (mm) |
b18 | Precipitation of the Warmest Quarter (mm) |
b19 | Precipitation of Coldest Quarter (mm) |
Circumstances | Lowly Suitable Area | Moderately Suitable Area | Highly Suitable Area | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|
CURRENT | 87.967 | 73.651 | 68.2934 | 229.9114 |
SSP1-2.6:2041–2060 | 81.0347 | 68.3038 | 77.533 | 226.8715 |
SSP1-2.6:2061–2080 | 85.533 | 89.2049 | 71.0191 | 245.757 |
SSP2-4.5:2041–2060 | 86.2153 | 81.059 | 88.7205 | 255.9948 |
SSP2-4.5:2061–2080 | 73.3194 | 69.3455 | 99.9479 | 242.6128 |
SSP3-7.0:2041–2060 | 75.5625 | 92.1649 | 62.7361 | 230.4635 |
SSP3-7.0:2061–2080 | 92.8021 | 86.3142 | 71.3524 | 250.4687 |
SSP5-8.5:2041–2060 | 75.7118 | 87.0851 | 85.8924 | 248.6893 |
SSP5-8.5:2061–2080 | 98.342 | 85.4427 | 55.8542 | 239.6389 |
Circumstances | AUC Value | Standard Deviation |
---|---|---|
SSP1-2.6:2041–2060 | 0.991 | 0.005 |
SSP1-2.6:2061–2080 | 0.987 | 0.013 |
SSP2-4.5:2041–2060 | 0.988 | 0.009 |
SSP2-4.5:2061–2080 | 0.989 | 0.009 |
SSP3-7.0:2041–2060 | 0.988 | 0.014 |
SSP3-7.0:2061–2080 | 0.988 | 0.011 |
SSP5-8.5:2041–2060 | 0.990 | 0.005 |
SSP5-8.5:2061–2080 | 0.989 | 0.007 |
Circumstances | Lowly Suitable Area | Moderately Suitable Area | Highly Suitable Area | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|
CURRENT | 81.4757 | 65.3281 | 55.7899 | 202.5937 |
SSP1-2.6:2041–2060 | 127.604 | 80.1632 | 85.2951 | 293.0623 |
SSP1-2.6:2061–2080 | 129.977 | 72.9288 | 102.698 | 305.6038 |
SSP2-4.5:2041–2060 | 120.139 | 84.6806 | 105.323 | 310.1426 |
SSP2-4.5:2061–2080 | 135.342 | 93.0434 | 112.932 | 341.3174 |
SSP3-7.0:2041–2060 | 142.601 | 103.099 | 88.7483 | 334.4483 |
SSP3-7.0:2061–2080 | 140.292 | 91.0052 | 83.533 | 314.8302 |
SSP5-8.5:2041–2060 | 118.556 | 87.1094 | 128.509 | 334.1744 |
SSP5-8.5:2061–2080 | 153.339 | 82.9427 | 130.125 | 366.4067 |
Circumstances | AUC Value | Standard Deviation |
---|---|---|
SSP1-2.6:2041–2060 | 0.988 | 0.007 |
SSP1-2.6:2061–2080 | 0.990 | 0.004 |
SSP2-4.5:2041–2060 | 0.989 | 0.008 |
SSP2-4.5:2061–2080 | 0.991 | 0.005 |
SSP3-7.0:2041–2060 | 0.991 | 0.004 |
SSP3-7.0:2061–2080 | 0.990 | 0.009 |
SSP5-8.5:2041–2060 | 0.990 | 0.006 |
SSP5-8.5:2061–2080 | 0.989 | 0.008 |
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Mao, B.; Zhu, Y. Prediction of Potential Suitable Areas and Distribution Evolution of Phoebe zhennan under Different Climate Scenarios. Sustainability 2024, 16, 7971. https://doi.org/10.3390/su16187971
Mao B, Zhu Y. Prediction of Potential Suitable Areas and Distribution Evolution of Phoebe zhennan under Different Climate Scenarios. Sustainability. 2024; 16(18):7971. https://doi.org/10.3390/su16187971
Chicago/Turabian StyleMao, Bo, and Yingfang Zhu. 2024. "Prediction of Potential Suitable Areas and Distribution Evolution of Phoebe zhennan under Different Climate Scenarios" Sustainability 16, no. 18: 7971. https://doi.org/10.3390/su16187971