3.2. Poland in ITF Data
By accessing more cross-sectional data and covering the period 2010–2021, it becomes possible to better relate the data for Poland in relation to other EU countries or the world. Firstly, it should be noted that over the last 10 years, Poland has reduced the number of fatal accidents by 37.1%. Moreover, the cross-sectional data demonstrate that this is a consistent trend over the past 12 years, with no significant interruptions (
Figure 2). Poland is therefore situated within a select group of countries (e.g., Italy, Japan, South Korea, or Belgium) that have demonstrated a gradual and sustained improvement in their statistics.
The orange bar represents the level that should be achieved to reduce by 50% the number of accidents by the end of the decade, counting from 2010. This value is 1954. In the context of IRTAD summary data, it is worth mentioning the reduction of fatal accidents in the youngest group: 0–14; 15–17 years, as shown in
Figure 3. In the two aforementioned groups, a reduction in fatalities of 31% and 36%, respectively, was achieved over the period 2010–2019.
In the context of Poland, the data from the International Transport Forum (ITF) indicate that there are still above-average numbers of fatal road accidents in the three age groups (18–20; 21–24 and 75+ years) (
Figure 4).
A further crucial aspect of the ITF statistics is the categorisation of fatal accidents according to the type of road on which the incident leading to the fatality occurred (
Figure 5).
In comparison to other countries, Poland does not exhibit a particularly high rate of fatal accidents. Approximately 60% of fatal accidents occur on roads classified as rural, which often lack the latest safety standards in terms of both infrastructure and road class. Conversely, just over 40% of remaining accidents occurred on urban roads, indicating that urban roads remain a significant risk environment for fatal accidents. The data show that this risk is lowest on motorways.
3.3. National Perspective
National road accident statistics demonstrate the structure of these incidents in terms of both the incidence of casualties and the degree of consequences resulting from these casualties (i.e., injured, seriously injured). Data for the years 2007–2021 are available for analysis, as shown in
Table 2.
The national figures demonstrate an improvement in road safety, as evidenced by the ITF data. Furthermore, it can be observed that the proportion of fatalities relative to the total number of accidents remained below 10% (9.5% on average) during the period 2012–2019 and in 2021. In contrast, every accident resulted in at least one injury.
The PRSO data [
22] for the years 2010–2016 included the presentation of publicly available reports of road accident victim statistics by the type of area in which the incident occurred (
Table 3). However, for the data for 2017 and subsequent years, the publication of such summaries has been discontinued. Consequently, these data can be presented as background information, as they are not comprehensive in terms of the temporal scope of the overall analysis.
A review of the data indicates that the number of fatalities in built-up areas is, on average, 17% lower than in non-built-up areas. However, the likelihood of sustaining serious injuries is twice as high in built-up areas compared to non-built-up areas. The data indicate that while the risk of fatality in a traffic incident in an urban area is slightly lower than outside a built-up area, the risk of serious injury is twice as high.
The ITF report under discussion also provides a comparative analysis of the reduction in fatalities due to road accidents involving cyclists (
Figure 6). A comparison of the 2010 data with the 2019 data reveals that Poland has also made progress in this area, with a decrease of less than 10%. This therefore aligns with the general trend observed in all countries included in the ITF report, with the averaged data indicating a reduction in cyclist fatalities of 7%.
3.4. Accidents Involving Cyclists
A review of EU statistics for 2021 (and 2010–2021 as a background) reveals a notable improvement in Poland in the context of accidents involving cyclists. Between 2018 and 2021, the number of fatalities as well as accidents in which cyclists were injured decreased significantly. This is evidenced by the data presented in the EU Road Safety Database [
23]. In order to embed the above data on the number of fatalities in road accidents involving cyclists, one should refer to nthe ational data. As illustrated in
Table 4, the number of fatalities resulting from road traffic accidents in Poland between 2010 and 2021, disaggregated by the type of participant involved, indicates a trend that warrants further analysis.
The referenced national data corroborate the observed trends in the context of EU data. Furthermore, they provide a more comprehensive context for the assessment of trends in the number of fatal accidents involving cyclists. It can be observed that, despite a decrease in the overall number of fatal accidents involving cyclists, their share in the total number of road accident fatalities in the period 2017–2020 was increasing (oscillating between 12% and 13%) in comparison with the period 2010–2011. In general, up to and including 2014, the share of cyclists in the group of road accident fatalities was at the level of less than 10%. In contrast, in 2015, it slightly exceeded 10%, remaining above 10% in the period 2017–2021. Consequently, two diverging trends can be observed. On the one hand, the number of fatal accidents (in terms of absolute number) is decreasing, yet their share in the total number of fatalities is increasing. This indicates that the dynamics of the decrease in fatalities in this group of road users is less pronounced than in the context of the other groups. Indeed, an analysis of the dynamics of changes in the number of fatalities in the period 2011–2021 revealed that the average dynamics of the decrease in the number of victims among cyclists was −2.7%. In the case of pedestrians, it amounted to −6.9%, while in the case of passenger cars, it was −5.7%.
Table 5 presents a comprehensive analysis of accident fatalities in Poland from 2011 to 2021, categorised by type of participant, illustrating the evolution of these figures over the study period.
Thematic reports from the PRSO provide a more comprehensive understanding of the nature of road accidents involving cyclists. Therefore, it is beneficial to present these data in
Table 6.
In the context of accidents involving cyclists in an unbuilt area, i.e., between towns and cities, approximately 11–15% of all accidents involving cyclists occur. It is noteworthy that their share in the total number of accidents involving cyclists generally fluctuates around 13%, periodically rising or falling below this figure. The period from 2010 to 2022 represents an exceptional case, with the number of accidents in undeveloped areas involving cyclists constituting only 11.8% of all incidents of this type.
In contrast, the situation in built-up areas differs slightly. These include not only towns and cities but also smaller settlements not officially recognised as cities. It can be observed that accidents in built-up areas account for approximately 85–86% of all accidents involving cyclists. This may be attributed to the fact that cycling is frequently utilised for short distances and often in an urban environment. Consequently, the density of cyclists in built-up areas within urban traffic is likely to be higher, which is reflected in the aforementioned statistics.
Table 7 presents a breakdown of the number of accidents involving cyclists, both overall and within built-up areas, categorised according to the type of victim. This provides a comparative perspective on the incidence rates.
In summary, the evidence indicates that a cyclist in an urban environment is statistically more likely to be involved in a road traffic incident than if they were cycling outside the city. Furthermore, crashes in built-up areas account for more than half of all fatalities. This trend remains unchanged throughout the analysis period. In addition, in the context of seriously injured people, accidents in built-up areas account for more than 85% of all incidents with casualties of this type. Similarly, no discernible shifts can be observed over the course of the analysis period, as illustrated in
Table 8. On a promising note, however, between 2021 and 2022, the number of cyclists killed and seriously injured in crashes in built-up areas declined, and a notable milestone was surpassed (killed—two-digit number; seriously injured—three-digit number).
The data from the Police Headquarters and the ITS are sufficiently detailed to permit an analysis of accidents involving cyclists only in urban areas, which is of significance to this study. This is presented in
Table 9. The data show that accidents involving cyclists in cities account for almost 80% of all accidents involving them in built-up areas. Therefore, this confirms the earlier conclusion. Furthermore, an upward trend can be observed. Between 2012 and 2022, there was a notable increase in the proportion of cycling accidents that occurred within city boundaries as part of the total incidents. This evidence suggests that cycling traffic and thus the number of accidents involving cyclists is clearly concentrated in cities.
Furthermore, the data reveal a concerning trend: the proportion of accidents involving cyclists in urban areas resulting in the death of a cyclist has increased from 48.8% in 2012 to 57.3% in 2022. This represents a significant rise in the number of fatalities among cyclists in urban areas. In terms of the total number of people killed in accidents involving cyclists, this increase is also visible, rising from 26.7% (in 2012) to 30% (in 2022). It should be noted that, in urban areas, the number of cyclists killed is nominally decreasing, reaching 51 in 2022.
In the context of seriously injured cyclists, the number of cyclists involved in urban accidents is variable and oscillates in the range of 800–900. This is still a considerable number; however, in relation to the total number of accidents involving cyclists, there is a clear decrease in their share. In 2012, 58.4% of seriously injured cyclists were involved in an accident within the city. Conversely, in 2022, only 40.5% were involved. This translates into a decrease in the proportion of seriously injured cyclists involved in an accident within the city to the total number of cyclists with the same type of injury involved in a road traffic incident in a built-up area. In 2012, this was 96.2%, and in 2022, it was only 46.3%. The data indicate that incidents involving cyclists within the city are slightly more likely to result in serious injury than death in the context of all accidents involving cyclists. However, when only the built-up area is considered, the probability of losing a life on a bicycle is higher in urban areas. Consequently, the issue of urban cyclist safety is of particular importance.
Since 2016, more detailed data on the locations of accidents involving bicycles in cities have been collected in the Accident and Collision Register System database. This provides the opportunity to analyse the described accidents in terms of factors related to the environment in which the traffic incident took place, as shown in
Table 9,
Table 10 and
Table 11.
Table 10 presents data on accidents involving cyclists in urban areas at sites not specifically designated for bicycles, including pavements and pedestrian roads. The data spans from 2016 to 2022.
Table 11 presents data concerning incidents involving cyclists in the city at locations not allocated for bicycle use, specifically pedestrian crossings, for the years 2016 to 2022.
The statistics presented cover approximately 55% of all accidents involving cyclists in cities. This includes 55% of all cyclists who lost their lives and 85% of cyclists who were seriously injured. Therefore, they provide a general overview of the situation.
Figure 7 illustrates that the majority of incidents involving cyclists in urban areas occur outside dedicated infrastructure for bicycles or pedestrians. This suggests that a cyclist riding on a road alongside cars is more likely to be involved in an accident than if they were using dedicated cycling infrastructure. The data also indicate that the highest percentage of accidents involving cyclists at designated cycling locations occurs at level crossings, which represent points of contact with car traffic.
Figure 8 presents a temporal analysis of fatal accidents involving cyclists in urban areas from 2016 to 2022. The data is segmented by location to provide a nuanced understanding of the geographical distribution of these incidents.
In the context of urban cyclist fatalities, it is evident that the majority of fatalities occur in locations that are not specifically designed for cycling or pedestrians. Once again, the highest number of cyclists are killed at cycle crossings and pedestrian crossings. This corroborates the earlier conclusion that the most dangerous places for cyclists are the points of contact with car traffic.
Figure 9 presents a temporal analysis of the incidence of accidents with serious injuries involving cyclists within urban settings from 2016 to 2022. The data is disaggregated by specific locations to identify areas of higher risk.
In the context of seriously injured cyclists, apart from confirming the earlier observations and conclusions, another interesting observation may be formulated. It turns out that among cyclists using cycling or pedestrian infrastructure (which in principle should not be the case when dedicated infrastructure is available), it is the cycling infrastructure that is the site of more accidents than, for example, pedestrian pavements. Of course, it is still third in terms of accidents throughout the analysis period.
3.5. Assessment of the Safety of Cyclists in Road Traffic—An Attempt to Identify the Elements Influencing the Risk
The issue of assessing the risk factors for cyclists in urban road traffic is largely constrained by the paucity of reliable and comprehensive data, which impedes the accurate identification of the extent of risk associated with specific types of injuries or accidents. While statistical data on accidents provide some insight into the identification of risks, the challenge persists in determining the actual scale of these risks in relation to the volume of cycling traffic [
24]. The issue of accessing data that can be used to determine the actual level of threats posed by specific risks in relation to the type of cycling infrastructure and the points at which it is located in the city is a concern that has been highlighted by numerous researchers [
25,
26]. Nevertheless, a number of initiatives have been undertaken in individual cities to record and collect data with greater precision in this regard. These data allow, for example, the identification of cyclist accident risk exposures at specific times of day, week, and location in the city [
27]. The benefit of such studies is the identification of so-called “hot spots” in a city’s road infrastructure. This is extremely important information for designers of infrastructure and traffic in the city. From the perspective of cycling, this tool is invaluable in enhancing the safety of cyclists in urban areas.
Other studies on cycling and pedestrian safety in cities have demonstrated the non-linearity of risk for cyclists and pedestrians in urban environments. It has been found that the greater the number of pedestrians and cyclists in a given area, the lower the risk of them being involved in a traffic accident [
28]. Conversely, the greater the number of cars on the road, the higher the risk of being involved in a traffic accident. The results of these studies provide one of the most compelling arguments in favour of reducing car traffic and in favour of cycling in towns and cities or their surrounding areas.
It is a challenging task to identify, review, and analyse the risks involved in cycling in an urban environment. There are numerous approaches to identifying and managing risks, which can be successfully applied to transport. Furthermore, risk factors in cycling can be sought in a multitude of areas. One such factor is the emotional state of the cyclist, which was taken into account in one of the studies conducted in Finland [
29]. However, the majority of studies focus on infrastructure elements such as intersections [
30]. In the context of this study, such an approach is not optimal, as the objective is not to analyse individual infrastructure elements and their relationship with the risk of an accident for the cyclist. This area has already been extensively studied in numerous cities worldwide, and it is more beneficial to examine the problem from a different perspective.
The perspective of the cyclist as a vehicle and road user has been adopted, which means that the process of identification and review of the most important road traffic risks for cyclists will include factors from several areas. These factors originate from both elements of the environment and the behaviour of other road users and can be identified from an analysis of the causes of accidents and the typical sources/causes of these risks, as shown in
Table 12.
The above compilation is a synthesis of findings from scientific and popular articles pertaining to road safety for cyclists, the safety of cyclists as users of vehicles, and the safety of cyclists as athletes [
9,
31,
32,
33,
34,
35,
36,
37,
38,
39,
40,
41,
42,
43,
44,
45]. It encompasses a diverse array of incidents that can pose risks to cyclists. These incidents are grouped into four main categories. Cyclist behavior: this category encompasses situations and risks created by cyclists themselves, through their actions, omissions, or disregard. These behaviours create direct risks for the cyclists themselves as well as for other road users and contribute to the increase in the probability of an accident. Interactions with other users are also a significant factor in the occurrence of accidents. These are actions of cyclists themselves, as well as of other road and cycling/walking users, which are the sources of the aforementioned risks that may result in accidents with varying degrees of harm to the cyclist or other participants of the event. Technical cyclists may be defined as individuals who engage in risky behaviours connected with the technical equipment or condition of their bikes or the way they are used. These behaviours may include deficiencies in certain elements of equipment. These factors may directly contribute to the creation of dangerous situations or even be the cause of an accident with serious consequences. The surrounding environment is a further factor that can influence the safety of cycling in urban areas. This encompasses the condition of infrastructure, its layout, maintenance, and other elements that may affect the safety of cyclists.
A critical analysis of the aforementioned groups allows for the identification of five principal types of threats (risks) that may be encountered in the context of urban cycling. These include the following:
Each of the types of risk identified is a kind of aggregate of the factors/events presented in
Table 12. Consequently, the summary presented above is also characterised by a certain degree of subjectivity on the part of the author.
In order to map the aforementioned top ten risks to cyclists in urban traffic, the well-known Risc-Score method, which is used to assess risks in the work environment as part of a risk assessment, was employed [
46,
47]. This method allows the creation of a risk map, which is the basis for risk management in the workplace. This method has been successfully used since 1971, when it was developed for the US Navy [
48]. The method is inherently subject to uncertainty due to the randomness of events and the consequences of traffic accidents [
49]. It is a qualitative method based on the product of three factors. The following equation (Equation (1)) applies to the analysis:
where:
R—estimated risk;
S—the value of the possible consequences of the event;
E—hazard exposure time;
P—probability of occurrence of the event.
In the context of our study, Equation (1) illustrates the method used to calculate the risk exposure of cyclists in urban environments, incorporating factors such as traffic density, average speed, and the proportion of bicycle lanes in the total road network.
Table 13 shows the limit values for the individual parameters, with adjusted threshold parameters for these values. This is the author’s adaptation of the method, which enables its application to risk assessment in urban traffic for cyclists.
In the context of modifying the Risc-Score method and applying it to the risks for cyclists in urban road traffic, it is worth recalling the statistics of accidents involving cyclists, taking into account the place of the accident (
Table 14). These data are presented as a relation to the total of a given type of accident.
Firstly, it is evident that a considerable proportion of accidents and fatal accidents involving cyclists occurred on roads designed for motor traffic. Consequently, the risk to cyclists on such roads is considerable. The probability of a tragic incident occurring on a road for cars is high, and the chance of the cyclist suffering serious injuries is also high. An accident with the highest probability of a cyclist sustaining serious injuries is most likely to occur on the cycling infrastructure. Conversely, the probability of being involved in an accident is also higher for cyclists utilising the cycling infrastructure than for those using the car road (slightly). The probability of a fatal accident at a pedestrian crossing is increasing, and on the pavement the probability of being seriously injured is high. A higher probability may occur at cycle crossings. Consequently, all indications are that the interface between pedestrian/bicycle road infrastructure and motor vehicle infrastructure represents the highest risk point. Conversely, a serious accident for a cyclist may also occur on a cycle path. Based on the above observations and previous analyses of road accidents involving cyclists in urban environments, it is possible to formulate an assessment according to the Risc-Score method (
Table 15).
Table 15 presents data that can be used to construct a risk map, which is depicted in
Figure 10. This approach allows for the visualisation and enhanced comprehension of potential risks and their impact. It is a pivotal instrument in the risk management process, facilitating the effective identification and prioritisation of areas of concern.
The risk map and the Risc-Score method indicate that the risk of a collision with a car and a bicycle should be eliminated. The Risc-Score method also rated a collision with a tram as high when the risk map suggests that it is a risk that can be tolerated due to its low probability of occurrence.
The application of these methods to assess the risk for cyclists in urban traffic highlights the importance of correct planning and design of cycling infrastructure. Moreover, it corroborates the earlier conclusion that the most significant risk for cyclists in urban traffic is that posed by motor vehicles.
The application of risk mapping and Risc-Score methods in the context of cycling in a city is both feasible and efficacious. Consequently, these tools should be employed with greater frequency at the stage of infrastructure planning, as they will enable the optimal prioritisation of investments.
The problem of identifying, estimating, and assessing risks in urban and non-urban cycling traffic is a complex and multidimensional task. It encompasses not only the aspects related to the cycling infrastructure itself but also the behaviour of all traffic participants, including cyclists. It is not only the elements that have been identified in the framework of identifying potential causes of danger for cyclists that are of importance. For example, awareness of safety and risk, the need for prevention, and methods of prevention are also of great importance. Furthermore, there are issues of driving culture and the use of urban space. Therefore, the infrastructure itself is only one element of the issue. It is evident that the quality and the manner in which the infrastructure is planned and designed may influence the potential risks to which cyclists are exposed on a given stretch of that infrastructure.
With regard to the recommendations for actions to enhance the safety of cyclists in urban traffic, several fundamental directions can be discerned. The design of cycling infrastructure with the objective of eliminating exposure to intolerable risks. This may entail, for instance, the minimisation of the number of intersections between cycling routes and roads for cars and trams; the installation of barriers for cyclists at such crossings; and the separation of traffic directions on cycling routes.
It is recommended that the guidelines developed by the Ministry of Infrastructure for the construction and design of cycling infrastructure in cities and beyond be followed.
Furthermore, it is important to promote safe cycling behaviour among urban residents and children.