Development Priority Policies for Impact Control and the Recovery of Natural Tourism in the Wake of the COVID-19 Pandemic in North Sumatra Province, Indonesia

Abstract

North Sumatra has abundant natural resources and potential as a tourist destination for the wider community. The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly impacted natural tourism, including in North Sumatra, where several tourist attractions have closed their businesses. This study aims to formulate policy priorities for the impact control and restoration of natural tourism sites in North Sumatra. We analyzed the decline in visitors during the COVID-19 pandemic, the impact of the pandemic on the number of visitors, the types of tourist attraction facilities that suffered the most damage, the influence of facility type on the decline in tourist visits, and the aspects of tourism that decreased the most and should be prioritized for improvement. A descriptive statistical analysis, difference tests, and multiple linear regression analyses were used. We found factors that influenced visitor changes before and during the pandemic, as well as afterwards. Our results show that an important development priority is to control the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the decline in tourist attractions. We also propose important recommendations for priority policies aimed at the restoration of facilities in the post-COVID-19 development of natural tourism in North Sumatra.

1. Introduction

Nature tourism activities have become a vital way for people to relieve boredom by enjoying the beauty of nature, engaging in history-related activities, and participating in other forms of tourism [1]. How often people engage in travel activities varies. Travel and recreation activities can alleviate the physical and mental boredom originating from daily activities and generate enthusiasm for future routines [2]. In general, people engage in natural tourism activities to appreciate the unique charm offered by natural tourist attractions [3].

Indonesia’s natural landscape has great potential as a tourist destination worthy of development, with beaches, rivers, mountains, lakes, and other beautiful natural scenery [4]. North Sumatra is one of the provinces on the island of Sumatra, Indonesia, which has a variety of tourist destinations with great potential for natural beauty. These natural tourism potentials include the Lake Toba area in Parapat City and its surroundings, Bukit Lawang and Tangkahan in Gunung Leuser National Park (Langkat Regency), Gundaling Hill and Mount Sinabung in Berastagi, the traditional village of Sibanggor in Mandailing Natal Regency, and many others [5,6,7,8,9,10]. Wildlife also supports the natural tourism potential in North Sumatra, where there are all the Indonesian umbrella animal species in this province, namely, Sumatran elephants, Sumatran rhinos, Sumatran tigers, and Sumatran orangutans. In North Sumatra, there is even an endemic species of umbrella animal, namely, the Tapanuli orangutan (Pongo tapanuliensis) [11,12]. This tourism activity is expected to encourage potential economic activities for people whose areas have tourist attractions [13].

From the beginning of 2020, Indonesia was hit by the COVID-19 pandemic that began in Wuhan, China. The pandemic has had a major impact on the Indonesian economy in general [14]. The tourism sector was most affected, due to the drastic decline in both domestic and foreign tourist visits; hence, many tourist attractions have temporarily closed their businesses [15]. The impact of the COVID-19 outbreak has been felt in all economic and social contexts. Many workers lost their jobs; consequently, the economy of the surrounding areas experienced a slowdown. The workforce is affected not only in the tourism industry, but also in various other related economic sectors [16].

The number of visitors to natural tourist attractions is believed to have declined significantly during the pandemic. Some natural tourist attractions were closed, while others were opened with many visiting restrictions. This was because strict protocols were implemented to ensure the health and comfort of tourists. The natural tourist attractions in North Sumatra responded in various ways, from simply implementing health protocols to completely stopping their natural tourism activities. With a prolonged duration, the COVID-19 pandemic has the potential to have an impact on the damage to various main facilities of natural attractions that tourists commonly need to enjoy the beauty of tourist attractions [17,18,19]. Furthermore, damage to tourist facilities (amenities) will decrease the number of visitors [20,21]. Changes in natural tourism visitors can occur in the diversity of regional origins and the number of groups on the visit. These two factors theoretically affect the magnitude of the economic impact of the existence of tourist attractions in an area. Tourists from other regions, especially foreign tourists, will have greater spending [22,23]. Cases like this, for example, occurred in marine tourism in Wakatobi, Southeast Sulawesi, and the tourist attraction of Air Bangis Beach, West Pasaman, West Sumatra [24]. The lack of tourist visits has directly resulted in a decrease in income for tourist attraction managers, causing tourist attraction managers to be unable to maintain and repair these facilities. As a result, more and more facilities on objects will be damaged.

Although, generally, the COVID-19 pandemic is the main cause of the decline in the number and diversity of natural tourism visitors, theoretically, many factors can cause the visitor decline. The factors that can lead to nature tourism visitor declines in the Czech Republic, Germany, and Austria were investigated [25]. We conducted the same research in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam [26]. Various similar studies report that tourist attraction facilities are a factor that affects the rise and fall of the number of visitors. Among various facilities, transportation, accommodation, consumption, toilet, praying, and tourist attraction facilities are factors that are often identified as factors that have a significant influence [27,28,29,30]. The factors that cause the decline in the number and diversity of visitors from the region need to be known so that recovery efforts can focus on priority factors.

After the COVID-19 pandemic slowly passed, natural tourist attractions were encouraged to resume their tourism management activities [31]. Various forms of lenient policies from the local government are starting to be utilized by the community to restart their natural tourism activities. Natural tourist attraction managers are also starting to improve to recover various forms of damage that occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic. This is because the completeness of facilities and infrastructure is one of the determining factors that can increase tourist visits [21,22]. The government has also allocated a budget and special program to help natural tourism managers become enthusiastic again. To support the recovery of the tourism industry, in 2022, the government has prepared several policies and programs, including providing incentives. The government has also prepared a budget to support the recovery of the tourism and creative economy sectors, which is Rp 4.55 trillion (equal to USD 275,535,000). Support for the recovery of the tourism sector is also carried out through the support for implementing various international events in Indonesia such as the G20 Summit, Mandalika International Circuit, and others with a budget allocation of Rp. 3.39 trillion (equal to USD 207,569,700) [32]. It is expected to impact the recovery of tourism activities, especially natural tourism.

This is where the problem arises, where both business actors and the local government need to know the extent of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the facilities of each natural tourist attraction. Apart from that, data and information are needed regarding which types of facilities are most affected and are believed to influence the level of tourist visits. Those are facilities that need priority to be handled, both by managers and local governments. The main motive for the decline in tourist interest also needs to be known to minimize visitor trauma and prevent it from happening again in the future. Therefore, this study is urgently needed in order to examine the extent of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on each natural tourist attraction in North Sumatra Province, and what causes the decline in tourist visits, and to analyze the damage to what facilities have the most influence on the decrease in tourist attractions. In this case, the number and diversity of visitors from the area are used as the main indicator to measure the level of recovery progress of a natural tourist attraction. The results of this study are urgently needed as a reference for the development priority policies for controlling the impact and recovery of natural tourism after the COVID-19 pandemic in North Sumatra Province, Indonesia.

2. Materials and Methods

This study was conducted at natural tourist attractions in North Sumatra Province (Figure 1). Data were collected and processed between August 2022 and March 2023. A quantitative approach was used through explanatory analysis with descriptive reinforcement. This analysis was conducted to determine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on various existing facilities at natural tourist attractions, along with its influence on tourist visits in the aftermath. Primary data were obtained through interviews with the managers of natural tourist attractions in North Sumatra, using a questionnaire, and through direct observation of natural tourist sites in North Sumatra. Secondary data were collected to support our analysis through library research, digital literacy, and data accumulation from related agencies. Data processing was performed using statistical testing software.

2.1. Population and Sample

In this study, the total number of natural tourist attractions in North Sumatra was taken as 272. This figure was obtained from the data on the number of natural tourist attractions in North Sumatra from the North Sumatra Tourism Office (2022) and synchronized with data on natural tourist attractions obtained from the district/city government website. Therefore, by using Slovin’s formula [33,34] with a percentage error tolerance limit of 10%, the number of research samples was ascertained as follows:

$$n={\displaystyle \frac{N}{1+N \left(e^2\right)}}={\displaystyle \frac{272}{1+\left(272\times 0.01\right)}}$$

(1)

Information:

• n = Sample;
• N = Population;
• e = Error margin (10.0%).

The number of research samples of natural tourism in North Sumatra was 73.61, which was rounded up to 74. The sample was purposively distributed based on the geographical distribution of natural tourism in North Sumatra. Interviews were conducted with representative object management leaders from each sample of natural tourism objects. To measure the condition of natural tourist attraction facilities with respect to the COVID-19 pandemic, six exogenous variables were used in this study: transportation facilities (Tr), accommodation (Ac), consumption (Co), toilets (To), praying (Pr), and tourist attractions (At). To measure the condition of visitors to tourist attractions in the post-pandemic period, two endogenous variables were used: the number of visitors (Nv), and the visitors’ area of origin (Av) [35,36]. The primary data obtained were measured using an ordinal scale, with the categories and values of the variables assessed shown in rank/order (

Table 1. Influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on natural tourism sites.

Indicator	Score	Description
Very high	5	Best conditions, positive indicators in the range 81–100%
High	4	Good condition, positive indicators in the range 61–80%
Moderate	3	Moderate conditions, positive indicators in the range 41–60%
Low	2	Bad conditions, positive indicators in the range 21–40%
Very low	1	Very bad conditions, positive indicators in the range 0–20%

).

2.2. Data Analysis

The condition of tourist attraction facilities in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic was measured using descriptive statistics and classified using a Likert scale. The Likert scale is used in this context to measure how people respond to something, either individually or collectively [37].

2.2.1. Impact Analysis Methods

To test the significance of the differences in visitors before and after the COVID-19 pandemic, a difference test (t-test) was conducted using a before–after approach.

$$BN{t}_{\alpha }=\left(t_{\alpha .d{f}_e}\right)·\sqrt{{\displaystyle \frac{2\left(M{S}_E\right)}{r}}}$$

(2)

Information:

• BNt (LSD) = Least significant difference;
• MS_E = Median square error;
• r = Correlation coefficient.

To determine whether the instrument used was measurable and accurate, the normality and autocorrelation tests were used. To obtain a good regression model, the data distribution must be normal or close to normal, and there should be no autocorrelation [38].

2.2.2. Changes in Regional Origin and How to Visit Tourists During the Pandemic Analysis Method

To analyze the impact of the pandemic on changes in regional origin and the way tourists visit during the pandemic, quantitative descriptive analysis was used. The results of the questionnaire asked to the respondents were classified based on the presentation for each question item.

2.2.3. Analysis of Factors Affecting the Number, Origin of the Region, and Visitor Spending

The influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on the number of visitors, their areas of origin, and expenditure on visitors to natural tourist attractions in North Sumatra was determined using multiple linear regression analysis. This analysis method is used to explain the relationship between the dependent and the independent variables [39]; the formula obtained after the data are processed states the relationship between the variables. We used multiple linear regression analysis because we considered it to be the best method for determining how the COVID-19 pandemic has affected natural tourism in North Sumatra.

Multiple linear regression aims to determine whether one independent variable has certain influences on other variables [40]. Statistical data analyses use linear regression to examine the correlations between variables.

The regression equations used here are presented as follows:

Nv = α₁ + β₁₁Tr + β₁₂Ac + β₁₃Co + β₁₄Tw + β₁₅Pr + β₁₆At + e₁

(3)

Av = α₂ + β₂₁Tr + β₂₂Ac + β₂₃Co + β₂₄Tw + β₂₅Pr + β₂₆At + e₂

(4)

Information:

• Nv: Number of visitors during the pandemic;
• Av: The visitor’s area of origin;
• Tr: Transportation facilities;
• Ac: Accommodation facilities;
• Co: Consumption facilities;
• To: Toilet facilities;
• Pr: Praying facilities;
• At: Tourist attraction facilities;
• α₁, α₂: Constants;
• β₁, β₂: Regression coefficients;
• e₁, e₂: Interference error/error.

2.2.4. Hypothesis Test

The hypotheses were tested before being accepted or rejected. A hypothesis is a statement or conjecture regarding a population that can be true or false. The percentage change in the dependent variable (Y) caused by the independent variable (X) was calculated using the coefficient of determination (R²). The F-test is used to test whether two or more independent variables simultaneously influence one dependent variable. This test was used here to determine whether changes in the variables of the number and origin of tourist attraction visitors can be explained by changes in the variables of tourist attraction facilities used. If the F-calculated significance value was <0.05, the alternative hypothesis (H₁) was accepted [41]. The partial influence test (t-test) aims to assess whether the variables of tourist attraction facilities (Tr, Ac, Co, Tw, Pr, and At) in the regression model have a significant influence on changes in the number and area of origin of visitors (Nv and Av). To compare the influence of several independent variables on one dependent variable, the t-test was used. If the significance level (p-value) was <0.05, the decision to test had a statistically significant effect on the relationship between the independent and dependent variables.

2.2.5. Analysis of the Motives for the Decline in Visitors and Priorities for Recovering Tourism Aspects

Analyses of the motives for the decline in visitor trips, the level of damage to tourism aspects, and policy priorities in recovering tourism aspects that have been damaged are carried out by quantitative descriptive analysis. Quantitative data were generated from respondents’ answers to the questionnaire

2.3. Preliminary Testing

To determine whether bias existed in the estimated regression coefficients, we conducted a classical assumption test. If the classical assumption test is not met, the resulting regression findings are meaningless and cannot be used to test the hypotheses or draw conclusions [42]. The classical assumption tests comprise the normality and autocorrelation tests; the former tests the regression model to determine whether confounding variables or residuals are normally distributed [43], while the latter observes the resulting regression analysis by testing the influence of the independent variable on the dependent one. Thus, new observations cannot be correlated with old observations [38].

The instrument used to measure the construct was first tested using validity and reliability tests. The purpose of the validity test was to determine whether the data obtained through the questionnaire were valid [44]. For instruments with multiple answers, reliability was evaluated using the Cronbach’s alpha test [45,46].

3. Results and Discussion

Previous theoretical studies have shown the potential of COVID-19 to significantly affect natural tourism managers [40]. Travel restrictions were part of government efforts to prevent the spread of the virus, causing social disruptions [47]. Theoretically, the tourism industry, which includes international and domestic tourism, along with other aspects such as transportation, lodging, consumption, meetings, and sports activities, is directly affected by worldwide, regional, and local travel restrictions [48]. The pandemic potentially caused a sharp decline in international and domestic tourism, as many countries imposed travel bans, border closures, and quarantine periods [49]. A decrease in tourist visits can affect the income used to manage natural tourist attractions, and reductions in visitor expenditure by tourism management stakeholders affect the management and function of existing facilities at natural tourist attractions [50]. These theoretical assumptions will be used to analyze the results of this research in North Sumatra Province, to obtain a reference for effective recovery policies.

3.1. Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Number of Nature Tourism Visitors in North Sumatra

The tourism industry is important for national economic growth because it can create new jobs, business opportunities, and markets for local products, improve living standards, and bring in foreign exchange for the country. The number of tourists is often used as a proxy for the success of tourism development [51]. The COVID-19 pandemic has the potential to have an impact on the change/decrease in nature tourism visits. In this study, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the decline in natural tourism in North Sumatra was measured. The matched-pair t-test was carried out to test the significance of the difference in the number of visitors before and after the COVID-19 pandemic, with the test results as follows (

Table 2. Paired-samples test for the number of visitors before and after the COVID-19 pandemic.

		Paired Differences					t	df	Sig. (2-Tailed)
		Mean	Std. Deviation	Std. Error of the Mean	95% Confidence Interval of the Difference
					Lower	Upper
Pair 1	Before COVID-19–After COVID-19	30,284.5	44,942.2	5224	19,872.2	40,696.8	5.797	73	0.000

).

The test of the difference in the number of visitors before and after the COVID-19 pandemic produced a t-count of 5797, which was much higher than the t-table (1993), with the test’s significance approaching 0. This indicates a major change in the tourist flow in North Sumatra before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. With a 95% confidence interval level, the number of visitors was significantly different between before and after the COVID-19 pandemic. During a pandemic, natural tourism activities are considered to be a form of crowding, with the potential to spread infection. Local governments and object managers generally prioritize the implementation of acceptable health protocols and safety standards to ensure the continued satisfaction of their customers [52]. In the transportation sector, flight activities were ceased and local movements were restricted. As the tourism business entered a slow season owing to the temporary suspension of flights, the number of nature tourists decreased.

These are problems that must be addressed immediately. Natural tourism is a subsector that can be immediately revived, as it only declined due to the COVID-19 pandemic, making it easier to attract visitors again [53]. Therefore, it is important to formulate various recovery policies based on research data. Below are several analyses related to the characteristics of the decline in visitors, those of the damage to facilities at tourist attractions, and the influence of both on visitors. This provides an important dataset on which to base strategic policymaking for stakeholders in the restoration of natural tourism in North Sumatra.

3.2. Characteristics of Nature Tourism Visitors in North Sumatra During the COVID-19 Pandemic

The sociodemographic and geographical factors of the tourists were considered. Gender, age, marital status, education level, occupation, social class, family size, and number of family members are examples of sociodemographic characteristics that are often studied [33]. In terms of geographical characteristics, visitors are usually classified according to their village, province, and country of origin [54,55]. The tourist characteristics on which our analysis focused were (1) their region of origin and (2) the manner of their visits during the COVID-19 pandemic. For example, in this case, the tourists visited as individuals, families, small groups, or large groups.

3.2.1. Visitors’ Area of Origin

According to the results of the descriptive statistical tests presented in

Table 3. Descriptive statistical results of visitors’ origin during the pandemic.

Regional Origin Category in the Decline in Visitors	Percent (%)	Valid Percentage	Cumulative Percentage
There are no tourist visits at all from any regional origins	1.4	1.4	1.4
All tourist visits from various regional origins have decreased	48.6	48.6	50.0
Visitors from outside and within the province have decreased	24.3	24.3	74.3
Only out-of-province visitors have decreased	18.9	18.9	93.2
The distribution of visitors has not decreased (unaffected)	6.8	6.8	100.0
Total		100.0

, the majority of the natural tourism object managers (48.6%) stated that all tourist visits from various regional origins had decreased. Only a small proportion of tourist attraction managers stated that the distribution of visitors was not affected by the COVID-19 pandemic (6.8%). For some tourist attractions, there were no visitors at all during the pandemic (1.4%).

The wide distribution of visitor origins showed progress in the development of tourist attractions in the area. The decline in visitors from the area was consistent with the decline in visitors to tourist attractions caused by the implementation of restrictions on community activities due to COVID-19. Nature tourism is directly impacted by international travel restrictions [56]. Table 3 shows that tourist attractions with a previous wide distribution of areas of origin were more affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. Some tourism managers were even able to maintain their local visits, meaning that only visitors from outside the province decreased (18.9%). Some tourist attraction managers (24.3%) were still able to maintain local visits from the surrounding communities. However, this illustrates that the natural tourism sites in this area are still dominated by local visitors. The numbers of national (outside the province) and international visitors remain limited. These findings are similar to those of previous research [23].

3.2.2. Types of Tourism

Almost every type of tourism experienced a decrease in proportion, as shown in

Table 4. Descriptive statistical results of types of tourism during the pandemic.

Changes in Types of Tourism	Percent (%)	Valid Percentage	Cumulative Percentage
No visits at all	6.8	6.8	6.8
All types of tourism are down	73.0	73.0	79.7
Visits in small and large groups decreased	9.5	9.5	89.2
Only large group visits decreased	5.4	5.4	94.6
No decrease in any type of tourism	5.4	5.4	100.0
Total		100.0

. As many as 73.0% of natural tourist attraction managers in North Sumatra experienced a decrease in all types of tourism, including individual visits as well as both large and small groups. Just 5.4% of managers experienced a decline only in large group visits, and 6.8% experienced no visits at all, while 5.4% experienced no decline at all in any type of tourism. Government regulations of visiting procedures for safe and healthy tourism contributed to the decline in tourist visits. Our survey results showed that natural tourism in North Sumatra had decreased by 73%. The annual decline (between 2019 and 2020) in domestic and international visitors to Indonesia averaged 42.1% and 98.0%, respectively [57].

Notably, a small number of natural tourist attractions did not experience any decline in any type of tourism or from any area of origin. These tourist sites are located in rural areas, far from the urban centers in North Sumatra, and tend to only have a small number of visitors from the local community. The limited decline in visitors to these destinations was attributed to local government policies that were not sufficiently strict in implementing movement restriction programs during the pandemic. The still massive numbers of tourist visits to these areas were also influenced by the minimal distribution of COVID-19 cases and the lack of social awareness regarding the dangers of the pandemic in rural areas. This was due to the small number of people who became seriously ill or died in these areas, with most patients generally experiencing only mild symptoms. The spread of COVID-19 in rural areas only occurred in the second year of the pandemic, when the level of public anxiety due to the virus was no longer as high as it was at the start of the pandemic.

3.3. Condition of Natural Tourism Attractions’ Facilities in North Sumatra Due to the COVID-19 Pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic, which resulted in restrictions on crowds and on movement in general, contributed to a decline in nature tourists. This decline further affected the ability of tourist attraction managers to maintain and repair existing facilities (

Table 5. Level of damage to natural tourism attractions’ facilities in North Sumatra in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Facility Type	Transportation (Tr)	Accommodation (Ac)	Consumption (Co)	Toilet (To)	Praying (Pr)	Tourist Attractions (Ta)
Total score	255	303	266	296	333	285
Mean	3.4	4.1	3.6	4.0	4.5	3.9
Category description	Suffered moderate damage (20–40%)	Suffered light damage (10–20%)	Suffered light damage (10–20%)	Suffered light damage (10–20%)	Slightly damaged (0–10%)	Suffered light damage (10–20%)

).

The most serious damage was to the transportation facilities at tourist attraction sites (score = 255). Owing to the lack of traffic from visitors, many roads (especially non-asphalt ones) became overgrown with grass, as well as suffering potholes, landslides, and other forms of road damage. Praying facilities experienced the least damage (score = 333). These facilities were still used daily by managers and the people around the tourist attractions; thus, they tended to be better maintained. In addition, strong religious values also contributed to these praying facilities being maintained by the management. Other facilities, such as accommodation, food, toilets, and rides, were generally damaged and in need of restoration to be comfortably reused.

3.4. Influence of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Numbers and Regional Origins of Visitors

3.4.1. Supporting Tests

The supporting tests included instrument reliability tests (i.e., validity and reliability tests) and classical assumption tests (i.e., normality and autocorrelation tests). In this study, both the instruments and the research data passed these tests well. The validity test was performed using Pearson’s correlation, where two datasets are compared by determining the extent to which their answer values are correlated. The correlation significance level obtained must be smaller than 0.05 for the data to be considered valid [45]. After carrying out a validity test with Pearson’s correlation, our results showed that all variables had values smaller than 0.05, indicating that all of the instruments used in this study were valid. The purpose of reliability testing was to test the accuracy of the instruments after repeated use. The measurement is constant or reliable if the Cronbach’s alpha coefficient is >0.70 [21] (Teufl et al., 2018) [44]. All variables (X and Y) had a Cronbach’s alpha value > 0.70; therefore, all of the instruments used in this study were reliable [45].

Normality testing was performed using the Kolmogorov–Smirnov model. After carrying out the normality test, the results showed that all Y variables had a residual significance level > 0.05; thus, these variables were normally distributed. While autocorrelation is the process whereby the residuals from the previous period are compared with those from the current period in a regression model (t-1), the best regression model does not have autocorrelation. The results of the autocorrelation test showed that the Durbin–Watson value for all Y variables was smaller than 4-dU (2.23057); thus, there was no autocorrelation [40].

3.4.2. Results Analysis

A multiple linear regression analysis was carried out to test the influence of transportation, accommodation, consumption, toilet, praying, and tourist attraction facilities on the number of visitors and their areas of origin. This test aimed to determine which facilities had the greatest influence on the decline in the number of visitors to the tourist attractions. The backward method was used to gradually delete variables that were not significant, in order to increase the accuracy of the resulting statistical model. The results of the multiple linear regression analysis using the backward method are presented in

Table 6. Results of simultaneous tests to estimate changes/decreases in the number of visitors (Nv).

ANOVA a
Model		Sum of Squares	df	Mean Square	F	Sig.
1	Regression	19.983	6	3.330	2.994	0.012 b
	Residual	74.517	67	1.112
	Total	94.500	73
2	Regression	19.923	5	3.985	3.633	0.006 c
	Residual	74.577	68	1.097
	Total	94.500	73
3	Regression	19.856	4	4.964	4.589	0.002 d
	Residual	74.644	69	1.082
	Total	94.500	73
4	Regression	19.749	3	6.583	6.165	0.001 e
	Residual	74.751	70	1.068
	Total	94.500	73
a. Dependent variable: number of visitors (Nv).
b. Predictors: (constant), tourist attraction facilities (At), transportation facilities (Tr), accommodation facilities (Ac), consumption facilities (Co), praying facilities (Pr), and toilet facilities (To).
c. Predictors: (constant), At, Tr, Ac, Co, and Pr.
d. Predictors: (constant), At, Tr, Ac, and Co.
e. Predictors: (constant), At, Tr, and Ac.

and

Table 7. Simultaneous test results for predicting changes/decreases in visitors’ origins (Av).

ANOVA a
Model		Sum of Squares	df	Mean Square	F	Sig.
1	Regression	19.155	6	3.193	4.098	0.001 b
	Residual	52.196	67	0.779
	Total	71.351	73
2	Regression	19.151	5	3.830	4.989	0.001 c
	Residual	52.201	68	0.768
	Total	71.351	73
3	Regression	19.139	4	4.785	6.323	0.000 d
	Residual	52.212	69	0.757
	Total	71.351	73
4	Regression	19.039	3	6.346	8.492	0.000 e
	Residual	52.312	70	0.747
	Total	71.351	73
a. Dependent variable: visitors’area of origin (Av).
b. Predictors: (constant), tourist attraction facilities (At), transportation facilities (Tr), accommodation facilities (Ac), consumption facilities (Co), praying facilities (Pr), and toilet facilities (To).
c. Predictors: (constant), At, Tr, Ac, Co, and To.
d. Predictors: (constant), At, Tr, Ac, and To.
e. Predictors: (constant), At, Ac, and To.

.

• Coefficient of determination test (R²)

The multiple linear regression test using the backward method produced the best-adjusted R² value for each endogenous variable. In the model for estimating the decline in the number of visitors, the best estimation model was produced using the following predictors: tourist attraction facilities (At), transportation facilities (Tr), and accommodation facilities (Ac); the resulting adjusted R² value was 0.175. In the estimation model for the decline in visitors’ origins, the best estimation model was produced using the following predictors: tourist attraction facilities (At), accommodation facilities (Ac), and toilet facilities (To); the resulting adjusted R² value was 0.235. The coefficient of determination was relatively low for an estimation model. This was because the variables used were only those related to the condition of the tourist attraction. Other factors—such as macroeconomic conditions, security, social politics, and climatology—were not used. Even the factor that was descriptively stated by the managers as a reason for reduced visits to tourist attractions, i.e., concerns about the transmission of COVID-19, was not used, so as to ensure that the model focused on the types of facilities that most influenced the number and regional origins of tourist visitors, in order to produce appropriate policy recommendations regarding recovery priorities.

b.

Simultaneous significance test (F-test)

Simultaneous testing was conducted to determine which factors of natural tourist attractions’ facilities affected the changes in visitors’ numbers and region of origin. F-tests were also conducted to produce a model estimating visitor decline behavior based on the condition of natural tourist attraction facilities due to the COVID-19 pandemic (Table 6).

As shown in Table 6, the F-test was conducted using the backward method to determine whether the predictor variables (i.e., changes/decreases in facilities and rides at tourist attractions as a result of the pandemic) influenced the changes/decreases in the number of visitors (Nv). The three variables had a significance value of <0.05, indicating that the simultaneous decrease in tourist attraction facilities (At), transportation facilities (Tr), and accommodation facilities (Ac) had a significant effect on the decrease in the number of visitors.

The results of the F-test using the backward method (Table 7) in the final stage (best estimation model) produced several variables for the deterioration of tourist attractions’ facilities, which had a simultaneous effect on the visitors’ areas of origin (Av). The deterioration in the tourist attraction facilities (At), accommodation facilities (Ac), and toilet facilities (To) can be said to have had a simultaneous effect on the visitors’ areas of origin.

c.

Partial significance test (T statistical test)—factors influencing the decline in the number of visitors

Referring to the simultaneous test result (Table 6 and Table 7), the predictor variables affect the changes in the number and origin of visitors. Empirical facts related to this can also be seen in Figure 2. However, it is still necessary to know further what predictor variables partially affect changes in the number and origin of visitors. To determine the effect of each facility variable on the change/decrease in the number of visitors, a partial test (t-test) was performed.

The results of the t-test using the backward method can be seen in

Table 8. Partial significance test results for number of visitors (Nv).

Coefficients a
Model		Unstandardized Coefficients		Standardized Coefficients	t	Sig.
		B	Std. Error	Beta
1	(Constant)	0.961	0.726		1.322	0.191
	Transportation facilities	0.445	0.174	0.349	2.549	0.013
	Accommodation facilities	−0.250	0.161	−0.215	−1.550	0.126
	Consumption facilities	0.039	0.122	0.040	0.315	0.754
	Toilet facilities	0.048	0.206	0.044	0.232	0.817
	Praying facilities	−0.056	0.171	−0.051	−0.329	0.743
	Tourist attraction facilities	0.248	0.100	0.296	2.469	0.016
2	(Constant)	0.926	0.706		1.312	0.194
	Transportation facilities	0.462	0.158	0.362	2.929	0.005
	Accommodation facilities	−0.232	0.141	−0.200	−1.649	0.104
	Consumption facilities	0.042	0.121	0.043	0.347	0.730
	Praying facilities	−0.036	0.146	−0.032	−0.246	0.806
	Tourist attraction facilities	0.245	0.099	0.293	2.475	0.016
3	(Constant)	0.876	0.671		1.305	0.196
	Transportation facilities	0.454	0.153	0.356	2.960	0.004
	Accommodation facilities	−0.241	0.134	−0.208	−1.795	0.077
	Consumption facilities	0.037	0.119	0.038	0.315	0.754
	Tourist attraction facilities	0.238	0.094	0.284	2.540	0.013
4	(Constant)	0.905	0.660		1.370	0.175
	Transportation facilities	0.473	0.140	0.371	3.385	0.001
	Accommodation facilities	−0.235	0.132	−0.203	−1.779	0.079
	Tourist attraction facilities	0.241	0.092	0.288	2.604	0.011
a. Dependent variable: number of visitors (Nv).

. The variables that had a partially significant effect, according to the results of the best model, were transportation facilities (Tr) and tourist attractions (At). The other facility variables were not significant; therefore, they were not used as estimator variables in the model. The best regression model equation produced was Vn = 0.905 + 0.473Tr − 0.235Ac + 0.241At + e. This estimator model was selected using the model efficiency criteria. The selected model still had an equally good determination ability but used as few predictors as possible. Consumption facilities and toilets, in this case, have no significant effect on the decrease in the number of natural tourism visitors, which was suspected because the visitor’s majority are local visitors and it is not difficult to obtain appropriate consumption. Local visitors also do not need high-standard toilet facilities. In addition, many visitors even bring their own food, especially those who visit in groups. The three significant variables are explained below.

• Effect of transportation facilities’ damage on the decline in the number of visitors

The influence of transportation facility variables on the decrease in the number of tourist visitors is very important. Visitors to natural tourism in North Sumatra make this facility a factor having the highest significance value. The correlation coefficient in this variable is also a positive sign which indicates a unidirectional relationship. If proper and appropriate transportation facilities are not provided, this will reduce the number of visitors to tourist attractions. Transportation facilities must be made available and managed appropriately to increase the number of visitors. The same phenomenon has been observed at other tourist attractions in Indonesia, such as Gumukpasir Parangkusumo, Yogyakarta [58], Bukit Khayangan, and Jambi [59]. Factors such as accessibility and infrastructure determine tourism development. Tourists hope that the attractions that they visit will have easy and comfortable access. A deterioration in the quality of transportation facilities can reduce the number of visits. Tourists want their holidays to run smoothly; therefore, they need transportation services that are easy, smooth, and available [13,60]. Consequently, transportation facilities and infrastructure are priority factors for improvement, so that natural tourism in North Sumatra can recover quickly.

b.

Effect of accommodation facilities’ damage on the decline in the number of visitors

One of the interesting findings in this case is that the accommodation variable has a significant effect on the decrease in the number of visitors, but the regression coefficient value is negative. Interestingly, the regression coefficient value for the accommodation variable was negative. This shows an inverse relationship between the condition of accommodation facilities and the number of visitors. Theoretically, this does not conform to the assumptions of this study. Typically, the more damaged the dining accommodation facilities are, the more this will affect the decreasing number of visitors to a tourist attraction [61]. Such cases were reported in a study in Austria [62,63]. Generally, the more damaged the accommodation facilities, the fewer the visitors to a tourist attraction. Empirically, this is possible because tourist attractions that have experienced a more severe decline in visitors are generally more advanced natural tourist attractions with permanent accommodation facilities; therefore, they have not experienced significant damage during the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, tourist attraction management generally adopts a strategy to maintain accommodation facilities in the face of declining visitors, namely, by rotating the use and maintenance of accommodation facilities. This method is also used to minimize losses owing to the damage to facilities built at relatively high costs. Tourist objects that have experienced a slight decline in visitors are located in rural areas and are traditionally managed. The accommodation facilities are normally built in a rudimentary manner, making them vulnerable to damage during the pandemic. In the aggregate, this phenomenon can create a relationship with negative signs. More specific research with homogeneous sample conditions is needed to delve into this aspect.

c.

Effect of tourist attraction facilities’ damage on the decline in the number of visitors

The quality of the available tourist attractions affects the interest of visitors to visit various natural tourist attractions in North Sumatra. According to several studies, attractions are the main factors that draw tourists to certain locations [64] including the added uniqueness of human-made products [65]. The Geopark area offers the beauty of the geological landscape in the form of the site of the ancient mountain of Toba which erupted tens of thousands of years ago and keft a giant crater in the form of a lake with the beauty of the surrounding mountain panorama, supported by a cool microclimate [66]. Several other natural tourism objects present the uniqueness of vegetation and animals that are typical of their natural ecosystems [67]. Some others present the beauty of the landscape such as waterfalls, beaches, clear rivers, and so on. Therefore, if there is damage to tourist attractions, it will impact the decreasing number of visitors. This study recommends the redevelopment of attraction facilities as a policy priority.

3.4.3. Factors Influencing the Changes in the Visitors’ Areas of Origin

To determine the effect of each facility variable on changes in the visitors’ areas of origin, a partial test (t-test) was carried out.

The results of the t-test using the backward method, as presented in

Table 9. Partial significance test results for visitors’ origin (Av).

Coefficients a
Model		Unstandardized Coefficients		Standardized Coefficients	t	Sig.
		B	Std. Error	Beta
1	(Constant)	1.108	0.608		1.822	0.073
	Transportation facilities	0.056	0.146	0.050	0.381	0.704
	Accommodation facilities	−0.257	0.135	−0.255	−1.907	0.061
	Consumption facilities	−0.013	0.102	−0.015	−0.125	0.901
	Toilet facilities	0.443	0.172	0.470	2.572	0.012
	Praying facilities	0.011	0.143	0.011	0.077	0.939
	Tourist attraction facilities	0.204	0.084	0.281	2.435	0.018
2	(Constant)	1.124	0.565		1.987	0.051
	Transportation facilities	0.055	0.145	0.050	0.380	0.705
	Accommodation facilities	−0.258	0.134	−0.256	−1.925	0.058
	Consumption facilities	−0.012	0.101	−0.015	−0.121	0.904
	Toilet facilities	0.450	0.147	0.477	3.064	0.003
	Tourist attraction facilities	0.206	0.079	0.284	2.611	0.011
3	(Constant)	1.114	0.556		2.005	0.049
	Transportation facilities	0.050	0.138	0.045	0.363	0.717
	Accommodation facilities	−0.258	0.133	−0.256	−1.945	0.056
	Toilet facilities	0.447	0.144	0.473	3.115	0.003
	Tourist attraction facilities	0.206	0.078	0.283	2.630	0.011
4	(Constant)	1.206	0.492		2.448	0.017
	Accommodation facilities	−0.264	0.131	−0.262	−2.015	0.048
	Toilet facilities	0.475	0.121	0.503	3.915	0.000
	Tourist attraction facilities	0.204	0.078	0.281	2.633	0.010
a. Dependent variable: visitor area of origin (Av).

, show that the factors with a partially significant influence are accommodation facilities (Ac), toilet facilities (To), and tourist attractions (At). The best regression model equation produced was Va = 1.206 − 0.264Ac + 0.475To + 0.204At + e. This equation was selected using model efficiency criteria, i.e., a model that still had good determination ability but used as few predictors as possible.

• Effect of damage to accommodation facilities on changes in the visitor’s regional origin

Accommodation facilities significantly affected the change in the origin of visitors to charity tourism objects in North Sumatra. Properly managed accommodation facilities can affect the origin of visitors’ areas because of the availability of places to stay during visits. Accommodation facilities influence the decision to visit natural attractions significantly, which conforms to the findings from other similar studies [68]. Good accommodation facilities can lead to a wider range of visitor origins. During the pandemic, tourists were generally not very motivated to stay at tourist attractions for a long time; however, the need for accommodation for visitors from outside the area has become very important. For visitors who come from outside the province and/or abroad, accommodation facilities are even mandatory because, in terms of time, they may not be able to make the visits without staying overnight. Overseas tourists are more likely to travel for longer periods [69,70]. The same happens with the accommodation (Ac) variable, where the correlation coefficient was negative. The empirical explanation for this phenomenon is the same as that in the above-mentioned model estimating the number of visitors. More in-depth research with more homogeneous object characteristics can be carried out on this aspect to examine more specific influencers of accommodation variables.

b.

Influence of damage to toilet facilities on changes in the visitors’ regional origin

The existence of toilet facilities significantly affected the diversity of visitor areas for visitors to natural tourism objects in North Sumatra after the COVID-19 pandemic. Toilet facilities are additional facilities that visitors need to support the aesthetics and comfort provided by a destination [71]. Of the many facilities needed by tourists, toilet facilities can influence their decision to travel to North Sumatra. Fulfilling tourists’ travel needs will create a feeling of comfort, which will give rise to a sense of satisfaction and a desire to return to or recommend the tourist attraction to others. The better the toilet facilities, the more positive the impressions visitors have. This positive impression is expected to be transmitted to peers and colleagues [72,73]. Currently, pleasant impressions and experiences are often uploaded on various social media platforms such that they can be easily viewed by people from a wider geographical distribution. This will be a form of promotion to attract visitors from a wider area of origin [74,75,76]. The results of this study recommend that toilet facilities be one of the priorities in the reconstruction of natural tourism objects after the COVID-19 pandemic in North Sumatra, as one of the approaches to the efficiency and effectiveness of the recovery program.

c.

Influence of damage to tourist attraction facilities on changes in the visitors’ regional origin

Damage to tourist attraction facilities has significantly affected the diversity of visitors from natural tourist attractions in North Sumatra. According to the tourism theory [77], people go on holidays to find inner peace and outer happiness. The ability of a destination to attract visitors from far and wide is a direct reflection of the quality of the attractions and tourism provided. The tourism industry helps reduce poverty by creating new forms of income and markets for locally produced goods [78,79]. Attractions or tourist spots that are unique and continuously changing have a significant influence on tourists’ positive impressions and the desire to visit again. This will continue with their willingness to share positive experiences with friends and colleagues and on social media. The greater the quality of a destination’s attractiveness or tourist attraction, the more tourist visitors will play a role in disseminating information and attracting visits from the surrounding area [80,81]. Thus, tourist attraction facilities are a priority in recovery efforts for natural tourism objects in North Sumatra.

3.5. Factors Influencing the Decline in Interest in Natural Tourism Visits During the COVID-19 Pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic resulted from a combination of urbanization, globalization, environmental change, agribusiness, and modern capitalism [82]. Crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic have the potential to bring about significant changes worldwide, as can be seen today. Thus far, no other crisis has constituted a transformative event in the tourism industry on the same scale as the COVID-19 pandemic [56]. Tourism stakeholders, including visitors, businesspeople, destination managers, and governments, can decide which changes to implement in response [83]. Therefore, basic data are needed regarding the factors that increase or decrease the motivations of visitors toward natural tourism in the context of the pandemic. Figure 3 presents the reasons why people did not visit natural tourist attractions in North Sumatra during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The primary factor influencing the decline in interest in tourism was concern about COVID-19 transmission, with a proportion of 56.8%, followed by a desire to comply with the government’s recommendation to stay at home and not travel (25.7%), difficulty paying for visits due to the economic crisis caused by COVID-19 (10.8%), other factors (4.1%), and the condition of tourist attractions (e.g., quiet and no longer attractive) (2.7%).

The results of the analysis showed that concern about COVID-19 transmission during tourism activities was the most influential factor in the decrease in visits. This echoes the results of similar studies in various places [84,85,86]. Concerns about infection encompass the entire range of tourism activities, including the process of traveling to and from the destination [87].

These facts emphasize the strong impact of pandemics, such as COVID-19, on the tourism sector. Pandemic factors and structural policies have significantly influenced the progress and decline in natural tourism. This view is shared by the authors of [88,89], and a similar situation has occurred in Malaysia [90]. This also emphasizes the need for all stakeholders with the authority and capacity to prevent and overcome pandemics to work in a serious and disciplined manner. Planned and systematic mitigation efforts must be conducted in a globally coordinated manner so that similar disasters do not recur and destroy the economy, including the natural tourism sector. The costs will be very high if a similar pandemic occurs in the future, with a broad impact on the tourism sector, especially given that sector’s significant impact on the economy of North Sumatra [91]. The policy of restricting population movement due to the fear of transmission during pandemics must be implemented very carefully, because it causes an enormous decline in the number of visitors to natural tourist attractions. In the end, the decline in natural tourism visitors will have a direct impact on the income of tourism object managers and lead to damage to facilities, and it could even lead to the collapse of the natural tourism industry in a region.

3.6. Declining Tourism Aspects and Priorities for Recovery

Tourism management is generally grouped into four major aspects, known as the “4As”: attraction, accessibility, amenities, and ancillary [92]. This later developed into “4ASC”, with the inclusion of safety and comfort aspects [93,94,95]. Data on the level of the damage to each of these aspects were obtained, along with the handling priorities, as presented in Figure 4.

At the damage category level (Figure 4a), the amenities element experienced the largest decline (44.6%) in terms of both availability and condition. The infrastructure and facilities in question included accommodation, food, transport, and tourist attractions. A further 28.4% decline was recorded in the tourist attraction aspect, which can be divided into three categories: natural tourist attractions, cultural tourism, and human-made tourism. Accessibility, which is needed for easy movement from one place to another to enjoy tourist attractions, saw a 13.5% decline. The safety and comfort aspects also experienced a significant decline (12.2%).

The treatment priority category also produced data that tended to be the same as the damage level aspect (Figure 4b). Amenities are a crucial and sensitive part of the tourist experience, and they are expensive to maintain and repair. This cost is substantial if it is borne only by tourist attraction managers who are still in the small–medium business category. The government and other related tourism stakeholders also have the responsibility to assist and accelerate the restoration of the amenities of natural tourism sites. Visitors’ satisfaction with their tours is directly proportional to the number and quality of facilities available. Thus, it is important to invest more seriously in this aspect. In addition to ensuring the safety and comfort of visitors, it is also necessary to restore economic activity and the sources of livelihood for those who work in the tourism industry.

Problems with the availability of amenities will have a direct impact on tourists’ interest in visiting in the future [96]. The success of a tourist attraction depends on its ability to satisfy the wants and needs of its visitors, which, in turn, is strongly correlated with the quality and quantity of its amenities [97]. The quality of tourist attraction products must be improved in this era of globalization because tourists prefer destinations with better attractions, facilities, and accessibility. Furthermore, visitors’ positive experiences can be shared quickly through various forms of social media, increasing the number of visitors and the variety of their origins.

The health and economic crises caused by COVID-19 have brought unprecedented challenges to the tourism industry, in terms of both implementing activities and ensuring sustainability. The COVID-19 pandemic is a significant challenge owing to medical limitations; therefore, the actions taken throughout 2020—namely, maintaining cleanliness, social distancing, quarantine, and traffic restrictions—are the primary strategies with which to combat the pandemic. Currently, in the aftermath of this global crisis, the next challenge for the government and stakeholders is to find an effective, quick, and cheap way to revive the economic sectors, including natural tourism activities, which are the mainstay of the region’s economy. Determining the appropriate development priorities will also impact the efficiency of recovery costs, while remaining oriented toward increasing visits to natural tourist sites in North Sumatra. The facts and findings presented in this paper are expected to help the government and all stakeholders in prioritizing the right approaches to improving natural tourism. Aspects that are sensitive and have a greater impact on changes in visitation levels must certainly be prioritized. In addition, the empirical facts can serve as a reference for developing natural tourism based on pandemic disaster mitigation.

4. Conclusions

Through the real difference test, the results show a significant difference between the number of visitors before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. The pandemic has affected visitors to natural tourist attractions, and visitor numbers, in terms of all categories of regional origin and type of visit, have decreased. The majority of facilities at tourist attractions in North Sumatra, including accommodations, food outlets, and toilet facilities, have experienced some damage (10–20%), while only worship facilities have suffered less damage (0–10%). Transportation facilities have suffered the highest levels of damage (20–40%). This finding can be a reference for priority policies in preventing and recovering the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on supporting facilities for natural tourism objects. The determinant test showed that transportation facilities, accommodation, and tourist attractions had a partially significant effect on the decline in visitor numbers. These were the exogenous variables in the best model for estimating the decline in the number of visitors to natural tourist attractions. Factors with a partially significant influence on the visitors’ origins included accommodation facilities, toilets, and tourist attractions. These were the exogenous variables in the best model for predicting the changes in visitors’ regional origins. Therefore, transportation facilities, accommodation, toilets, and tourist attractions must be prioritized for maintenance during pandemics in order to prevent a decrease in the number of visitors (and the diversity of their origins) to natural tourism sites. These tested causal factors should be a priority policy in recovering damaged facilities during the COVID-19 pandemic. On the visitor side, the biggest reason for the decline in interest in visiting tourist attractions was concern about the spread of COVID-19 (56.8%), followed by compliance with movement restriction regulations imposed by the government (25.7%). This indicates that individuals are sensitive to issues related to disease transmission. The aspect of tourism that has experienced the greatest decline and should have the highest priority for improvement is amenities—which had a proportion of close to 50%, far above the other aspects—followed by attractions, accessibility, safety, and comfort. The factors that cause a decline in visitors and the various priority scales found in this study should be used as a reference for tourist attraction managers, the government, and all stakeholders related to managing natural tourist attractions, so that the recovery process can be faster and more effective.