The key question here is how the projects have been faring in financial terms, using managers’ information about investments, operating costs and estimates of revenues. We tried to find explanations for the financial performance patterns seen in the data and to address the financial future outlook for jatropha projects. The analysis is done separately for large plantations that are primarily based on monocropping and involve large-scale land lease transactions of thousands of hectares; outgrower farmers cultivating jatropha according to some kind of verbal or written contractual arrangement for a seed processor; and seed processors, which specialize mainly in oil extraction and associated activities from their external seed suppliers—such as producing cooking briquettes and pellets from seedcake.
3.1. Large Plantations
Large plantations were only found in Mozambique where they constituted the dominant jatropha business model. Whereas Tanzania also had several large jatropha plantations until recently [
10,
13,
14,
15], our survey was unable to locate any that were still operational, implying that all Tanzania’s large plantations had folded in the period 2008–2012. (The only remaining large scheme in Tanzania is the plantation of the former Sun Biofuels in Kisarawe, which sold its accessions to Thirty Degrees East, a holding based in Mauritius. This company is still undecided whether or not to continue with jatropha, so all activities have been put on hold.) In Mali there were never any large mono-plantation schemes. Its jatropha activities are centered around smallholder production and small farmer cooperatives.
Of the five large Mozambican plantation firms covered by the survey, the oldest ones started activities in 2007, and the two most recent ones around 2010. Their projected full size is indeed very large, ranging between 5000 ha and 50,000 ha. In comparison, the areas that had been planted up with jatropha at the time of our survey were small. The two oldest projects had 2311 and 1500 ha under jatropha, respectively. The areas planted up in the three more recent projects ranged from just 165 to 250 ha. Not surprisingly, the breakeven points were projected quite far into the future. The smallest project of 5000 ha is expected to need seven more years to break even, whereas the others expected to need a full ten years or more.
Large plantations have high up-front capital requirements for land clearing and land preparation, otherwise the planting of jatropha cannot proceed apace. Delays in planting are costly since jatropha begins to yield commercially interesting quantities of seeds only after 5–6 years. The investment data given by four projects (
Table 1) indicate that the smallest investment outlay so far was in the region of US$ 2 million, but the respondent indicated that additional equipment investment was still to take place. More realistic investment requirements are probably US$ 4.8 and US$ 5 million as quoted by two other projects. Project Mo_Pl3 even quoted US$ 12 million.
Although adequate equipment investment pays off in the longer term, it does lead to extremely high initial costs per ha. This is illustrated by the column labelled “Investment costs per planted-up ha, by 2011” in
Table 2.
In the projects that started only very recently, the investment per ha is as high as US$ 10,000 and US$ 20,000. Even in the two oldest projects, the amounts are still a formidable US$ 3333 and US$ 5193, respectively. The respondents indicate that these costs should decrease to around US$ 1000 and US$ 1200 per ha at full size. High fixed costs could thus be quite a burden in the initial years of operation.
Table 1.
Data for financial analysis of large plantations (part I).
Table 1.
Data for financial analysis of large plantations (part I).
Company id. nr | Starting Year of Jatropha Activities | Turnover 2011 (US$) | Area Planted up by 2011 (ha) | Projected Full Size (ha) | Projected Breakeven Year | Expected NPV (US$ m) | Expected IRR | Actual Seed Yield 2011 (t/ha/year) | Projected Mature Seed Yield (t/ha/year) |
---|
Mo_Pl1 | 2009 | 0 | 200 | 10,000 a | 2020 | Net CF: $10.9 m/year (=$600/t SVO) b | 50% | 0.24 t c | Approx. 5.5–6 t m |
Mo_Pl2 | 2007 | 0 | 1500 | 5000 d | 2015 | Not given | 26% | 0.45 t e | 3 t |
Mo_Pl3 | 2007 | 18,000 | 2311 | 2311 f | 2014 | $15.9 m g | 7% h | 0.50 t | N.A. |
Mo_Pl4 | 2010 | 0 | 165 | Approx. 15,000 | 2020 | Not given | N.A. | 0.06 t i | N.A. |
Mo_Pl5 | ~2010 | 0 | 240 | 50,000 k | 2020 | Not given | N.A. | 0.06 t | 1–2 t l |
Table 2.
Data for financial analysis of large plantations a (part II).
Table 2.
Data for financial analysis of large plantations a (part II).
Company id. nr | Total Investment Costs so Far (US$) | Total Investment Costs per ha for Planted-up Area by 2011 (US$/ha) | Projected Total Investment Costs per ha at Full Size (US$/ha) | Total Production Costs per ha by 2011 (US $/ha/year) | Projected Total Production Costs per ha at Full Size (US$/ha/year) | Estim. Oil Content of Seeds | Intended Selling Price (US$/t SVO) | Intended Selling Price (US$/L SVO) | Local Fossil Diesel Price (US$ /L) |
---|
Mo_Pl1 | $2,000,000 | $10,000 | Not given | $1000–1500 (=$2041/t SVO) | $500–750 | 35% | $600–650 b | $0.63 | $1.27 |
Mo_Pl2 | $5,000,000 | $3333 | $1000 | $667 (=$690/t SVO) | Not given | 31%–42% | $850 | $0.85 | $1.17 |
Mo_Pl3 | $12,000,000 | $5193 | $1200 c | $176 (=$417/t SVO) | Not given | 30% | $1193 b | $1.19 | $1.27 |
Mo_Pl4 | Not given | Not given | Not given | No production yet | Not given | 18% | Not yet determined d | Not yet determined d | $1.27 |
Mo_Pl5 | $4,800,000 | $20,000 | Not given | $480 | $272–300 | 40% | Not yet determined d | Not yet determined d | $1.33 |
The slow maturation of the jatropha plant significantly aggravates the initial cash flow problems deriving from high initial capital requirements. In the two oldest projects, the yield data quoted were 450 kg and 500 kg dry seeds per ha for approximately 4–5 year old jatropha (i.e., pertaining to the oldest sections of the plantations). The respondent from the 2009 plantation indicated to have obtained 240 kg/ha from its first productive 25 ha. In the two projects that were started in/around 2010 the reported yields were still only 60 kg per ha. When we compare this to the estimates for dry seed yields from mature jatropha given by three respondents, there is still a big gap to be overcome: they projected 1–2 tonnes, 3 tonnes, and 1500 L Straight Vegetable Oil (SVO) (equivalent to about 5.5–6 tonnes of seeds). While the last estimate seems rather unrealistic to obtain, 2–3 tonnes seed per ha may be achievable for mature jatropha with sound agronomical practices, professional management and reasonably good soil and climatic conditions. At the same time, we can say that this is only just the sheer minimum yield required in order to ensure long-term break even (further details below).
Other elements contributing to an initially unfavorable cost/revenue situation include oil pressing inefficiencies, inadequate utilization of oil by-products and unfavorable prices for the oil. Although our interviews with processors in Tanzania established that pressing efficiency and productive utilization of by-products are of major influence on the costs per liter of SVO, and we pressed for information about these parameters in Mozambique as well, none of the Mozambican projects reported any data about this. The main reason is that none except Mo_Pl3 had actually been pressing any seeds so far. The latter had realized a commercial turnover of US$ 18,000 from domestic sales of SVO so far. No significant export of jatropha oil had taken place by 2012. Low oil content of the seeds is also an issue contributing to low financial returns in some cases. The four Mozambican plantation managers who gave information about this reported a wide range, from 30% to 42%, depending on batch and area (
Table 2). (A fifth reported 18%. This is most likely due to its practice of harvesting ripe and green seeds together, which is uncommon)
The data about total production costs (
Table 2) are highly variable between projects, and hard to compare. Unlike the investment data discussed above, it is difficult to make sense of them. The two oldest projects report values of US$ 667 per ha/year and US$ 176 per ha/year, respectively, which suggests big differences between them. However, the difference in terms of tonnes SVO is much smaller: US$ 690 and US$ 417, respectively. This could suggest substantial differences in the firms’ cost structures that are hidden from our view. The firm that started in 2009 predictably reports a higher figure of US$ 1000–1500 per ha/year (or US$ 2041/tonne SVO), but indicates that this should ultimately decrease to US$ 500–750/ha. The figure of US$ 400 per ha/year quoted by one of the most recent projects seems low, and in any case it is probably too preliminary to attach much importance to.
The three oldest projects also gave their views on their prospective competitive position in the international bio-oil market (
Table 2), by comparing their product to palm oil crude and fossil crude. These two commodities are the two closest substitutes for jatropha oil, hence their prices constitute the lead sales prices for jatropha SVO suppliers who aim for the international market (which is the case with almost all large plantation projects). As
Figure 1 shows, palm oil crude has experienced large price swings since 2008, similarly to petroleum crude. The unpredictability of the palm oil and fossil oil prices creates much uncertainty about the future economic feasibility of the plantation projects as the business case of jatropha is extremely sensitive to prices of the competing oils.
Figure 1.
Palm oil monthly price—January 2005–March 2013 [
16].
Figure 1.
Palm oil monthly price—January 2005–March 2013 [
16].
All three respondents ultimately did expect to be able to sell below the local fossil diesel price of Mtc 35–38 per liter (2012). Their intended local SVO selling price ranged from US$ 600–1200 per tonne (Mtc 18.75–35.80 per liter). The lower bound in this range seems a realistic price to aim for, given the fact that the feasible domestic price closely follows the international fossil and palm oil prices. The international palm oil price fluctuated between roughly US$ 400–1200 per tonne between 2005 and March 2013 (see
Figure 1) and it should be considered highly unlikely that the world price of palm oil crude will sink below US$ 600 for prolonged periods of time within the coming decades, even in spite of the prolonged recessionary conditions in Europe. However, the upper bound in the quoted price range seems too optimistic on the part of the respondent. The average monthly price of palm oil crude over the period July 2007 (
i.e., at the end of the era of low prices) to March 2013 was US$ 868 (Own calculation based on data from [
16] well below US$ 1200.
In van Eijck
et al. [
10] implications for profitability were estimated for the case of a large Tanzanian plantation which is based on yield curves and cost and revenue parameters similar to the Mozambican plantation projects discussed in this article, using cost-benefit analysis. This yielded an Internal Rate of Return very close to the real interest rate of 8%, implying an almost zero net profit over the project’s 20 year lifespan. In combination with a high risk profile for this new crop, plantation projects like these need higher oil prices, and seed yields higher than 2–3 tons/ha in order to attain economic viability.
3.2. Outgrowers
In Mozambique, there is only one processor-outgrower project in the North, but in Tanzania and Mali the processor-outgrower model is the dominant one. In Mali, the seed trade and/or processing are often conducted cooperatively by organized groups of outgrowers. Some of these projects also claimed to cultivate fields that belong to their cooperative. There were also a few local/regional development projects with links to outgrowers, which tend to have broad social aims, such as providing agricultural extension for increased food security, combating erosion, or building up local/regional energy supply from non-traditional sources. Similar developmentally-oriented ventures were found in Tanzania. In both countries we also found one or two larger, more commercially-oriented outgrower-processor arrangements in which the processors are owned by western foundations or private investors. Outgrowers cultivate jatropha in two basic arrangements: fields and hedges. Within each of these arrangements we can make a further distinction between those that intercrop with other types of plants, and those that don’t.
Table 3 and
Table 4 give annual (2011) gross revenue from seed sales for outgrowers cultivating jatropha older than two years in hedges (standardized per 100 m. hedge) and on fields (standardized per ha), respectively. Many Malian outgrowers did not, or could not, provide any revenue information, therefore this analysis covers only 13 hedge cases and 13 field cases. The revenue data should be interpreted as gross value added (GVA,
i.e., net profit and labor costs). While detailed cost data about investment (tools, planting materials) and inputs other than labor (manure, fertilizers, water) were also gathered, these expenses proved to be negligible. No farm tools had been acquired specifically for jatropha cultivation, and planting material (seeds, cuttings, seedlings) usually had come virtually for free, while precious fertilizer and irrigation water were used only for food crops, not for jatropha. For most small farmers these inputs are hardly available in the first place. The opportunity costs of land and labor are the two dominant cost items of smallholder production by far. However, their value depends crucially on the specifics of the local situation, as detailed below.
Table 3.
Revenue a data for jatropha hedge growers, 2011, all countries, n = 13.
Table 3.
Revenue a data for jatropha hedge growers, 2011, all countries, n = 13.
Outgrower Id. Nr | Mono or Mixed Cropping | Total Length | Age of Jatropha (year) | Jatropha Revenue per 100 m Hedge Equivalent (US$) |
---|
Ma_O1 | hedge, wide spacing, mono | 1200 m | 4 | 0.48 |
Ma_O26 | hedge, mono | 30 m | 6 | 23.00 |
Ta_O1 | hedge, mixed | 80 m | 11 | 11.75 |
Ta_O2 | hedge, mono | 163 m | 3 | 0.99 |
Ta_O3 | hedge, mono | 203 m | 11 | 1.54 |
Ta_O4 | mainly hedge, mixed | 80 m | 11 | 11.75 |
Ta_O5 | hedge, mixed | 153 m | 10 | 8.18 |
Ta_O6 | hedge, mono | 110 m | 8 | 2.13 |
Ta_O7 | hedge, mixed | 140.5 m | 4 | 50.04 |
Ta_O9 | hedge, mono | 111 m | 4 | 5.00 |
Ta_O10 | hedge, mono | 261 m | 12 | 51.72 |
Mo_O2 | hedge, mono | 600 m | 3 | 4.17 |
Mo_O3 | hedge, mono | 600 m | 3 | 4.67 |
Table 4.
Revenue a data for jatropha field growers, 2011, all countries, n = 13.
Table 4.
Revenue a data for jatropha field growers, 2011, all countries, n = 13.
Outgr Id. Nr | Mono or Mixed Cropping | Total Size | Age of Jatropha (year) | Jatropha Revenue per ha Equivalent (US$) |
---|
Ma_O5 | field—intercrop | 0.25 ha | 4 | 29.2 |
Ma_O7 | field—no intercrop | 4.00 ha | 11 | 2.73 |
Ma_O20 | field—no intercrop | 12.06 ha | 3 | 0.61 |
Ta_O11 | field—intercrop | 0.81 ha | 10 | 3.7 |
Ta_O12 | field—intercrop | 0.40 ha | 8 | 7.03 |
Ta_O13 | field—intercrop | 0.20 ha | 5 | 1.9 |
Ta_O19 | field—intercrop | 0.03 ha | 2 | 15.67 |
Ta_O20 | field—no intercrop | 0.81 ha | 3 | 2.32 |
Ta_O21 | field—no intercrop | 0.61 ha | 4 | 27.67 |
Ta_O22 | field—no intercrop | 1.21 ha | 7 | 23.25 |
Ta_O23 | field—no intercrop | 0.03 ha | 3 | 15.67 |
Ta_O24 | field—no intercrop | 0.20 ha | 4 | 56.25 |
Ta_O25 | field—no intercrop | 0.01 ha | 4 | 46.89 |
The tables show much variability in terms of lengths of hedges and sizes of fields. The shortest hedge is 30 m, the longest 1200 m. The size of fields varies between 0.01 ha (basically just a few jatropha trees) and 12.06 ha. The survey data also indicated that cropping arrangements on fields are extremely diverse, both in terms of combinations of plant species as well as plant spacing, weeding, watering, and a nutrient and pest management regime. Fences are also diverse, ranging from 100% monocropped jatropha to highly diversified multipurpose hedgerows. Even in the hedges solely planted with jatropha, the planting distances are highly variable, with some farmers preferring 20–30 cm, while others adhere to 50 cm or an even wider arrangement, which leads to bigger bushes with a higher yield per bush but not necessarily a higher yield per meter hedge. Hence, a quantitative investigation of determinants of seed yield—and the GVA derived from this—proved impossible to conduct. Instead we make more basic observations around the data in the two tables.
As far as the 13 hedge cases (
Table 3) are concerned, the average seed sales value (GVA) per 100 m. hedge is US$ 13.49 per annum. After excluding two dubious cases that are possibly outliers, the average comes down to a mere US$ 6.72. By all accounts, this is extremely modest, especially given the fact that it should compensate for labor effort. The labor requirements are estimated at 1–2 weeks per smallholder household per annum, including children and the elderly, for seed harvesting and shelling, and occasional weeding (in the first 2 years only) and pruning. With agricultural minimum wages for hired labor being in the region of US$ 1.5–3.0 per day, depending on location, it is clear that the revenues received from jatropha cannot match this. It would thus only make sense to engage in jatropha cultivation in periods when no other, more productive work for family labor can be found at all, and if the land cannot be used for some more productive purpose.
The low jatropha revenues are put in a broader perspective when we realize that in Tanzania and Mozambique, average family farm sizes are in the region of just one or a few acres, so the total length of their boundary hedges would be limited to a few hundred meters at the most. Their width and height also need to be controlled to greater or lesser degree, in order to avoid competition with food crops for space and sunlight. The total income earning potential from such hedges is correspondingly limited. In Mali, average farm sizes are much bigger (20–30 ha), but so are the (extended) families who work those farms. (Information obtained from the Managing Director of Mali Biocarburant SA., 2012.)
It stands to reason that our survey registered many complaints from smallholders about low revenues from their hedge jatropha. Their complaints were associated primarily with agronomic conditions, such as poor soils, lack of rain, too much rain, or devastating pest and insect attacks. Low seed prices were also mentioned but appear to be of somewhat lesser importance, and only minor differences in seed prices were observed across locations, depending on the degree of remoteness of the smallholder in relation to the seed buyer. There were no notable complaints about sales contract conditions. The contracts were found to be similar across countries, involving guaranteed buying of all seed supply at a guaranteed minimum price which is adjusted upwards over time in accordance with inflation. Smallholder price risk is therefore minimal. By far the greatest risk observed in practice emanates from processor projects folding due to lack of economic viability. Smallholders seemed to understand this. Several said that they wished to receive higher seed prices in the future, but were willing to accept low prices as long as a viable value chain had not yet been established.
The level of (dis)satisfaction of the hedge farmers with jatropha is also not linearly related to the seed price they receive. In areas where more productive opportunities for labor and land exist, e.g., in Arusha region in Tanzania, farmers showed little interest in cultivating jatropha. This is because of more lucrative competing uses for their labor time and land. Even hedge/boundary land can have a positive opportunity cost. There are areas in which the soils and climate permit the growing of a variety of other hedge species that yield benefits that jatropha does not provide, such as medicine, fodder, wood for building timber and fuel, and nitrogen fixation. Hedges in these areas predominantly consist of mixed plantings. Thus, in more fertile areas with adequate rainfall, it should not be assumed—as has often been done—that jatropha would always be a good use of boundary land for small farmers, at least not in a monocropping hedge arrangement.
The situation in dryer, less fertile, eroded and geographically remote conditions can be quite different. In such areas, few alternative hedge crops for jatropha can thrive. In these areas there is great interest among the small farm populations to collect and sell jatropha seeds, even at revenues far below the local rural minimum wage. Whatever little cash the seed sales generate is still appreciated in view of the severely limited alternatives open to farmers—something is better than nothing. (Source: Interview with manager Ta_Pr1.) Moreover, in addition to its cash value, Jatropha is valued in such areas also for its suitability as a sturdy fence for homesteads and animal pens.
The GVA patterns of jatropha cultivation shown by the 13 field cultivation cases (
Table 4) also show a low average and substantial variability; and just like in the hedge cases, there is no significant relation detectable between GVA and prevalence and intensity of intercropping. Averaging the per-ha normalized values results in US$ 17.91 (st. dev. US$ 18.07), with a wide range of US$ 56.25 to US$ 0.61. (It proved impossible to obtain reliable data from smallholders about their
total cost and revenue from intercropped lands.) Even though this amount excludes the income from main (food) crops, this should be considered very low. After all, jatropha bushes always take away some space from food crops. The questionnaires in Mali, where many field cultivators are located, registered many complaints about low yields. The conditions in Mali appear to be harsher/dryer than those in the other two countries, and there are severe problems with termite attacks. As many Malian projects promoted interplanting of jatropha with food crops, smallholders are understandably dissatisfied. This land definitely carries a positive opportunity cost in regions where several farmers indicated to have seasonal food security problems (see social impact section for details). The substitution has reduced the overall income per unit of surface area. These problems are comparatively less severe among jatropha hedge farmers.
Comparing the two smallholder business models, it seems that the way Jatropha was promoted had a large effect on the satisfaction of the farmers precisely because of the differences in opportunity costs experienced by them. The hedge model (promoted by most smallholder projects in Tanzania and some in Mali) raised lower expectations but also carried lower risks compared to the field model (promoted mainly in Mali). It led to correspondingly less disappointments and frustration when things did not quite work out as expected. In Mozambique, the situation was again different. In most cases unused lands were cleared for jatropha, so no prior economic value was lost. However, farmers could have benefited more from planting higher value crops, so there was a lot of wasted effort.
3.3. Processors
The processors form a highly heterogeneous group, in terms of strategic orientation, value proposition, turnover and size of their sourcing areas. We encountered pure non-profit entities aiming primarily for increased social well-being of local farming communities, but also for-profit entities, albeit there was no manager who did not express a broad concern for the wellbeing of local society and an eye for environmental integrity. The for-profits are thus companies that try to practice some form of corporate social responsibility. There are also in-between organizational forms, for instance a project aiming to establish a fair trade export line of jatropha energy products. Others complement a commercially funded, for-profit core operation with various foundation-funded activities that aim at long term development such as increased food security, building of management capabilities, and empowerment of women. We also encountered a few development projects funded by hard commercial investors, who appeared to use these as a bargaining chip to get permission to conduct commercial activities in the countries concerned.
Data limitations do not allow an in-depth assessment of each processor. We draw out some more general patterns and highlight some illustrative examples that are broadly indicative of achievements and bottlenecks experienced.
An overview of key characteristics of the processors is given in
Table 5. The earliest processing activities were started in 2005; all of these were located in Tanzania. In 2006, this was followed by the first Mali processor-outgrower arrangement. Several new projects began in the following years, and projects kept being established as recently as 2010 and 2011, at a time when the jatropha hype was already well on the wane. To structure the discussion about the processors, we analyze their physical throughput (measured in tonnes of dry seeds handled), their turnover (gross revenue in US$), the estimated surface area covered by the associated outgrowers and own (trial) fields, and estimated numbers of associated outgrowers. The differences between the schemes in these respects are enormous.
Table 5.
Basic characteristics of processors for financial analysis.
Table 5.
Basic characteristics of processors for financial analysis.
Id. Nr | Start of Jatr activ. | Throughput 2011 (Tonnes Seeds) | Turnover 2011 a (SVO + Byproduct Sales) | Profit 2011 (Y/N)? | Jatropha Surface 2011 | Inter-Planting (Y/N) | Nr of Outgrowers in 2011 | Planned Full Size |
---|
Ma_Pr1 | 2007 | 1 t (1st harvest) | US$ 300 | N | 2546 ha with outgr. | Y | Appr. 2546 (1 ha p.p.) | 1300 ha by 2009, but grew on to 3646 ha by 2012 |
Ma_Pr2 | 2007 | 10 t g | US$ 3000 | Not given | 3300–5400 ha own fields + unspecified surface with outgr. | Y | >4000 | 25,000 ha fields by 2030 |
Ma_Pr3 | 2010 | No harvest yet | Negligible | N | 50 ha | Y | 18 | Not given |
Ma_Pr4 | 2009 | No harvest yet | Negligible | N | Not given | Y | Not given | Not given |
Ma_Pr5 | 2008 b | 1.74 t g | US$ 522 (est.) | N | 3500 ha own fields + 58 ha with outgr. | N | 30 | 50,000 outgr.; 10,000 ha |
Ma_Pr6 | 2006 | 5 t | US$ 1500 (est.) | Not given | 450 ha; 25,000 m hedge | Y | 248 (fields) + 90 (hedges) | 1000 ha fields with 500 outgr; 50 km. hedge with 99 outgr. |
Ma_Pr7 | 2009 | 17.8 t | US$ 5340 (est.) | Not given | 765 ha | Y | 1200 | 765 ha; 1200 outgr; 344 km. hedge. |
Ta_Pr1 | 2005 | 400 t (est.) | US$ 180,000 (est.) | N | 800,000–1,000,000 m hedge c | Some | Appr. 40,000 | >100,000 outgr. |
Ta_Pr2 | 2011 | No harvest yet | Negligible | N | <1 ha | Y | 40 indiv. outgr + 2 schools | Not given |
Ta_Pr3 | 2010 | No harvest yet | Negligible | N | 2 ha | Y | 25 | 78,000 outgr. |
Ta_Pr4 | 2007 | 4 t (approx. 1000 L SVO) | $1333 (est.) h | N | 24 ha (12 ha planted in 2007, 12 ha in 2009) | Starting | 0 | 24 ha own fields |
Ta_Pr5 | 2008 | 0.5 t (approx. 100 L SVO) | US$ 200 | Y:US$ 37 | 2.4 ha (2 ha fence + 0.4 ha demo plot) | Y | 72 | 200 outgr. |
Ta_Pr6 | 2008 | unknown | Unknown | N | 0.4 ha research plot + unknown amount of hedges | N | 400 d | 5000 outgr and 55 MFPs |
Ta_Pr7 | 2005 | 0.5 t (<0.06 kg/tree) | Not given h | N | 3.2 ha | Y | 0 | 3.2 ha own field |
Ta_Pr8 | 2005 | 0.5 t (0.4 kg/tree) | Not given h | N | 0.8 ha | N | 0 | 0.8 ha own field |
Ta_Pr9 | 2009 | 147 t jatr. + 50/60t croton g | >US$ 100,000 | N | 300 ha plantation + unknown nr of outgr. | Unclear | Not given | 400 ha + unknown nr of outgr. by 2017 |
Ta_Pr10 | 2006 | 538 kg (0.07/tree) | Negligible | N | 10 ha | N | 0 (project closed) | 16,800 outgr on 9600 ha e |
Mo_Pr1 | 2009 | 4.8 t (in 2012) | US$ 4800 (est.) f,h | N | 1800 ha hedge outgr. + 3 ha own trial plot | N | 1800 | No specific goal |
3.3.1. Big Processors
The biggest processor by far is a Tanzanian firm established in 2005 (Ta_Pr1) that sourced approximately 400 tonnes of dry seeds from different regions from an estimated 40,000 hedge outgrowers, i.e., an average of 10 kg per outgrower. Many of its farmers are located in environmentally adverse areas where jatropha had already been used as boundary fences decades before the advent of any seed collectors. This has been a key reason why it was possible for the firm to upscale at a fast pace in the years preceding our survey, and why no major acceptance issues were arising from interference with the cultivation of any alternative useful hedge species.
The logistics involved in the collection and transport of such huge quantities of seeds from large numbers of very small-scale suppliers is extremely complex given the poor state of rural road infrastructure in Tanzania. The manager explained that the firm has set up several hundreds of regional collection points which serve as focal centers for seed collection and making cash payments to the farmers. The system does seem to work quite well: in 2012 the firms’ throughput went up further to 500 tonnes, sourced from 50,000 farmers with established hedge stock. Its total turnover in 2011 was around US$ 180,000 from the sale of approximately 160,000 L SVO, fuel pellets and briquettes made from seed cake, and raw seedcake used as fertilizer; all destined for the local market. Its earlier exports to a western airline for bio-kerosene did not work out in the longer term, as the buyer decided to pay according to the volatile world market price for palm oil crude, which led to a 60% price reduction within a year. After this experience, the firm decided to solely focus on the local market.
Turnover in 2011 fell still a little short of covering total annual costs, but the firm was expecting to be able to reach its break-even point within 1–2 years from 2012 with an estimated supply base of over 100,000 farmers. Unfortunately, acrimonious relations between the two main investors led the largest one to pull out in the course of 2012, which induced bankruptcy. However, the promise shown by the business model induced the entry of a new sponsor and operations were restarted in early 2013, albeit still with rented equipment and at a somewhat reduced scale of operations.
The firm pursued different ways to improve process efficiency, conversion technologies and utilization of by-products and waste products. While it still remains to be seen whether sufficient investment capital will be forthcoming for full re-capitalization in due course, for the time being this case remains one of the best positive examples of a for-profit and simultaneously socially focused jatropha project in our survey. (Another notable positive example is Mali Biocarburant in Mali, but this firm was not covered in our survey.)
The next-biggest operation in our survey is a non-profit activity for local energy generation, located in an environmentally deprived region of Tanzania (Ta_Pr9). It is funded by a Dutch private foundation. This company is mainly supposed to play a supporting role for other, commercial entities in the same business consortium and for the local community, aiming at the provision of essential energy services for business and household activities. The company is supposed to run on a no-profit, no-loss basis, while the profits are supposed to accumulate within sister businesses that use its services. This firm has more advanced and larger capacity processing machinery than Ta_Pr1, which enables it to process jatropha seeds as well as harder croton seeds. In 2011 it crushed 147 tonnes jatropha and 50–60 tonnes croton. The consortium as a whole has leased a 300 ha plantation which is mainly being planted up with jatropha, but its dominant business model is sourcing from outgrowers. The company expects to need several more years to reach its break-even point. The consortium as whole has had some serious management problems over the past years. One condition for making ends meet is said to lie in higher-value utilization of by-products. For instance, there were plans to start producing biogas from the seed cake for local electricity generation.
The above two firms are in a league of their own; all other entities listed in
Table 5 are (still) very modest in size. There was another substantial outgrower scheme operating in Tanzania in the past (Ta_Pr10), but this firm went bankrupt in early 2012. According to interviews with several of its former outgrowers and former manager, its demise was mainly induced by disappointing and erratic seed yields, combined with an unviable business model centerd around the promotion of intercropping of jatropha on farmers’ food crop land.
3.3.2. Mid-Size Processors
The mid-size segment of processors is formed by a group of six projects processing between roughly 1 and 17 tonnes in 2011. Five of those are located in Mali and one in Tanzania. Two of these Malian projects are social development projects aiming at increased income generation for small farmers or fostering rural energy supply (Ma_Pr1 and Ma_Pr6). One of these had actually surpassed its planned full size, working with 2546 outgrowers (1 ha per grower). The other was still expanding. It sourced from 248 field outgrowers with 1–2 ha jatropha each, and 90 growers with 278 m hedge on average, and aimed to broadly double these numbers by 2016. The other four projects in the medium-size segment are (more or less) commercially orientated activities, some of which had substantial ambitions for future expansion (see right hand column in
Table 5). For instance, there is a large cooperative that sells seeds to processor Mali Biocarburant from an estimated 3300–5400 ha involving more than 4000 farmer members. Ultimately, this cooperative wants to cover 25,000 ha by 2030, mainly by foresting savannah land with jatropha. The Malian ventures in this segment tend to conduct agronomic research on own fields alongside promoting jatropha and collecting seeds from outgrowers.
Some of the plans outlined by these firms seem a tall order, although the initial investment requirements of this business model are generally lower than those of centralized plantations. However, in this business model too, the economic feasibility depends on fast upscaling. In the outgrower model, upscaling crucially depends on the extent to which
existing jatropha stock can be utilized. Winning over thousands of small farmers to engage in planting the crop, and then waiting for results to come, takes a huge amount of time and effort. Fast upscaling with existing hedge stock has proven possible in some regions of Tanzania but our survey in Mali did not shed clear light on the extent of existence of mature jatropha in that country, although older studies—for example Henning [
17]—already referred to widespread use of the shrub as an effective windbreak. At the same time, our survey results indicate that the projects in Mali have also involved a lot of new jatropha planting.
3.3.3. Small-Scale Processors
The smallest scale segment of outgrower projects is made up of activities that are either still in an early phase of establishment but with strong growth ambitions, or ventures that were conceived to remain small local projects. Among the former are two young Malian companies and the single Mozambican outgrower project. In addition, in this league is an experimental project financed by the Dutch Fair Trade movement (Ta_Pr3) which started with limited initial agronomic experiments.
Examples of the second category are two religious communities in Tanzania that cultivated a few ha jatropha for own use. These projects have performed poorly, mainly because of unsuitable climatic conditions. One of them (Ta_Pr7) in fact ceased soon after our survey. The other is still continuing, mainly because it is a useful part of the curriculum of a local vocational school. Another Tanzanian project in this category was designed as a small-scale income-earning activity for women (Ta_Pr5). This activity is in fact the only project in our survey that had made any profit. It made medicinal soap from SVO from manually pressed jatropha seeds. The process is labor intensive, but labor is cheap in rural Tanzania. This model is not amenable to upscaling due to the limited local market for relatively expensive jatropha soap and the arduous nature of manual pressing. There may be some room for similar localized projects in different areas but they are likely to remain small.
Even the biggest and most advanced processors are still quite some distance away from “good practice”. The oil conversion efficiency percentages quoted by respondents are illustrative of their problems. Some quoted percentages of 27% and 33%, but there is no doubt that these figures come from unreliable (mostly) Indian websites, not from their own experience. The valid answers appear to be around 20%–25% (depending on the efficiency of press technology, and whether or not SVO filtering is taken into account). The 24% reported by the largest Tanzanian processor should be considered as a good benchmark for mechanically pressed SVO filtered to 1 micron. This statistic is based on regular measurements. Only a few companies in our survey had set up performance monitoring and feedback systems that could give them key insights into the important factors underlying their performance.