Natural Disasters, Economic Growth and Sustainable Development in China―An Empirical Study Using Provincial Panel Data
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Data, Disaster Indicator and Hypotheses
2.1. Data
2.2. Disaster Indicator
2.3. Hypotheses
3. The Empirical Analysis
Dependent Variable | Per Capita GDP Growth Rate | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
Period | The First Period (1985–1998) | The Second Period (1999–2011) | ||
C | 0.095202 *** (0.0000) | 0.092598 *** (0.0000) | 0.085283 *** (0.0000) | 0.084266 *** (0.0000) |
Degree of natural disasters ND | 0.00000126 (0.8169) | 0.00000136 (0.1481) | ||
Degree of meteorological disasters MD | 0.000000837 (0.8791) | 0.0000164 ** (0.0267) | ||
Degree of geological disasters | 0.000248 (0.1044) | 0.00000142 (0.3085) | ||
Growth rate of investment | 0.228303 *** (0.0000) | 0.229056 *** (0.0000) | 0.174843 *** (0.0000) | 0.168970 *** (0.0000) |
Education degree | 0.005103 * (0.0930) | 0.005430 * (0.0740) | 0.005968 ** (0.0114) | 0.006027 ** (0.0102) |
Openness | −0.00000382 (0.2591) | −0.00000380 (0.2218) | ||
D (openness) | 0.000135 *** (0.0005) | 0.000132 *** (0.0007) | ||
SOE S | −0.00000214 (0.2591) | −0.00000219 (0.2475) | −0.0000241 *** (0.0000) | −0.0000246 *** (0.0000) |
R2 | 0.311052 | 0.315356 | 0.261843 | 0.269959 |
Obs | 420 | 420 | 360 | 360 |
Dependent Variable | Growth Rate of Investment | Education Degree |
---|---|---|
C | 0.086913 *** (0.0000) | 9.743637 *** (0.0000) |
Degree of meteorological disasters | 0.00000811 (0.5846) | 0.000177 * (0.0534) |
Degree of geological disasters | −0.000000397 (0.9561) | −0.000000613 (0.6564) |
Per capita GDP growth rate | 0.876742 *** (0.0000) | |
Birth rate | −0.148292 *** (0.0000) | |
D (income level) | 18.97086 *** (0.0001) | |
R2 | 0.218076 | 0.235808 |
Obs | 390 | 360 |
Variable | Per Capita GDP Growth Rate | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Degree of meteorological disasters | 0.0000157 ** | 0.0000173 ** | 0.0000130 * | 0.0000172 ** | 0.0000174 ** |
(0.0285) | (0.0196) | (0.0780) | (0.0270) | (0.0161) | |
Degree of geological disasters | 0.00000138 | 0.00000130 | 0.00000125 | 0.00000141 | 0.00000130 |
(0.23212) | (0.3529) | (0.3650) | (0.3121) | (0.2565) | |
Population density | –0.0000224 *** | ||||
(0.0003) | |||||
Coasts | –0.010654 * | ||||
(0.0658) | |||||
Rivers | 0.016849 *** | ||||
(0.0031) | |||||
Latitude | 0.000135 | ||||
(0.7627) | |||||
Longitude | –0.000548 * | ||||
(0.0848) | |||||
Obs | 360 | 360 | 360 | 360 | 360 |
R2 | 0.298119 | 0.277010 | 0.287935 | 0.270151 | 0.275212 |
Variable | Education Degree | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Degree of meteorological disasters | 0.000183 ** | 0.000177 * | 0.000178 * | 0.000183 ** | 0.000177 * |
(0.046) | (0.0562) | (0.0534) | (0.0481) | (0.0535) | |
Degree of geological disasters | –0.00000022 | –0.00017700 | –0.00000056 | –0.00000058 | –0.00000034 |
(0.8752) | (0.732) | (0.6868) | (0.6754) | (0.8092) | |
Population density | 0.00128 *** | ||||
(0.0016) | |||||
Coasts | 0.449103 * | ||||
(0.0948) | |||||
Rivers | –0.131637 | ||||
(0.6421) | |||||
Latitude | 0.033031 | ||||
(0.1438) | |||||
Longitude | 0.034393 | ||||
(0.2207) | |||||
Obs | 360 | 360 | 360 | 360 | 360 |
R2 | 0.324237 | 0.240256 | 0.235699 | 0.239488 | 0.244169 |
Null Hypothesis: | Lags | Obs | F-Statistic | Prob. | Result |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Meteorological disasters are not Granger cause of GDP growth rate | 6 | 210 | 2.46543 | 0.0254 ** | Reject the null hypothesis |
Education is not Granger cause of GDP growth rate | 6 | 210 | 4.06220 | 0.0007 *** | Reject the null hypothesis |
GDP growth rate is not Granger cause of Education | 11.7246 | 0.0000 *** | Reject the null hypothesis | ||
Meteorological disasters are not Granger cause of education | 4 | 270 | 2.20990 | 0.0683 * | Reject the null hypothesis |
4. Conclusions and Discussion
Acknowledgments
Author Contributions
Conflicts of Interest
Appendix
Location | EM-DAT | Previous Literature (Yuan, 2008 [68]) | Computed Value | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Death Toll | Economic Losses (1000 US$) | Death Toll | Economic Losses (100,000,000 Yuan) | Death Toll | Economic Losses (1000 US$) | |
Sichuan(Chongqing) | 87,476 | 850,000 | 68678 | 6231.52 | 86,854 | 765,512.0186 |
Gansu | 365 | 442.8 | 462 | 54,395.83309 | ||
Shaanxi | 122 | 228.14 | 154 | 28,025.89287 | ||
Yunnan | 1 | 16.82 | 1 | 2066.255449 | ||
Shanxi | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
Guizhou | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
Hubei | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | ||
Hunan | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | ||
Henan | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Variable | Test for unit root in | Method | in the First Period (1985–1998) | in the Second Period (1999–2011) | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Statistic (Prob.) | Result | Statistic (Prob.) | Result | |||
Per capita GDP growth rate | Level | ADF-Choi Z-stat | −5.30819 (0.0000) | Smooth | −2.20509 (0.0000) | Smooth |
Degree of natural disasters | Level | ADF-Choi Z-stat | −6.29742 (0.0000) | Smooth | –4.97697 (0.0000) | Smooth |
Degree of meteorological disasters | Level | ADF-Choi Z-stat | −6.30789 (0.0000) | Smooth | −5.04097 (0.0008) | Smooth |
Degree of geological disasters | Level | ADF-Choi Z-stat | −6.57734 (0.0000) | Smooth | −5.64198 (0.0000) | Smooth |
Investment growth rate I | Level | PP-Choi Z-stat | −8.68497 (0.0000) | Smooth | −3.31127 (0.0005) | Smooth |
Openness O | Level | ADF-Choi Z-stat | −4.35787 (0.0000) | Smooth | 1.83879 (0.8520) | Rough |
D (Openness) ∆O | 1st Difference | ADF-Choi Z-stat | −6.81695 (0.0000) | Smooth | ||
SOE | Level | ADF-Choi Z-stat | −4.12426 (0.0000) | Smooth | −11.9920 (0.0000) | Smooth |
Birth rate | Level | ADF-Choi Z-stat | −4.19320 (0.0000) | Smooth | −2.15761 (0.0155) | Smooth |
Income level | Level | ADF-Choi Z-stat | Smooth | 9.89938 (1.0000) | Rough | |
D (Income level) | 1st Difference | ADF-Choi Z-stat | Smooth | –3.00439 (0.0013) | Smooth | |
Degree of education | Level | PP-Choi Z-stat | Smooth | –5.32522 (0.0000) | Smooth |
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Guo, J.; Liu, H.; Wu, X.; Gu, J.; Song, S.; Tang, Y. Natural Disasters, Economic Growth and Sustainable Development in China―An Empirical Study Using Provincial Panel Data. Sustainability 2015, 7, 16783-16800. https://doi.org/10.3390/su71215847
Guo J, Liu H, Wu X, Gu J, Song S, Tang Y. Natural Disasters, Economic Growth and Sustainable Development in China―An Empirical Study Using Provincial Panel Data. Sustainability. 2015; 7(12):16783-16800. https://doi.org/10.3390/su71215847
Chicago/Turabian StyleGuo, Ji, Hui Liu, Xianhua Wu, Jiong Gu, Shunfeng Song, and Yinshan Tang. 2015. "Natural Disasters, Economic Growth and Sustainable Development in China―An Empirical Study Using Provincial Panel Data" Sustainability 7, no. 12: 16783-16800. https://doi.org/10.3390/su71215847