1. Introduction
Today, our world is going through massive urbanization [
1], and sustainable urbanization is considered as a mechanism to protect the interest of all stakeholders during this urbanization process. According to a report of the United Nations [
2], 54% of the world’s population lives in urban areas, with an expected increase to 66% in 2050. However, this increasing population is not equally concentrated among the different parts of the world as the same report states that a larger portion of urban people will be increased in the cities and towns of less developed countries. In this regard, the estimated population growth in Asia is 1.4 billion, 0.9 billion in Africa, and is 0.2 billion in Latin America and the Caribbean by 2050 [
3]. Given the rapid growth in their urban populations, these regions will face abundant challenges like housing, health, education, transportation, energy, and water projects. Particularly, because of the messy and hidden urbanization, South Asia does not fully apprehend the potentials of its cities for prosperity and livability. Furthermore, most of the cities are suffering from extreme level of poverty, unhygienic housing conditions, and poor livability even after the impressive improvement since 2000 [
4]. Therefore, developing cities in a sustainable way is a large endeavor here in these developing countries. Another report of the United Nations [
5] stated that in 1990, 10 mega cities had almost 10 million or more dwellers each, which conglomerated 153 million individuals that were approximately equal to 7% of the urban population. However, in 2014 it increased to 28 mega cities with 12% of total global urban population having 453 million inhabitants. From these mega cities 16 are situated in Asia. Therefore, the most effective path to sustainable development of this region must pass through cities.
The growth of urbanization regularly leads to the conception of metropolises that function as locomotives of economic evolution, and as hubs for the amalgamation of human and commercial resources that produce innovative thoughts and skills essential for supporting the ecological plus diligent usage of assets [
6]. However, it is commonly agreed that there should be some limitations in these economic and social establishments to protect the environmental livability [
7]. Although contemporary worldwide urbanization is considered as a socioeconomic risk in developing nations, a number of studies debate whether consistent sustainable evolution is not prima facie through the perceptions of urbanization [
8,
9]. At present, urbanization is going to be acute in the South Asian mega cities as they have to deliver lodgings nearby to one billion individuals alone by the year 2030, thus issuing a burden on rudimentary infrastructure and living prospects [
10]. Due to poor urban planning, some metropolises of South Asia like Dhaka and Lahore are devaluing the living standards of city dwellers, mostly in the slums. The traditional urban infrastructure of these cities is unable to ensure the interests of the present, let alone future generations. Sustainable urbanization can play a vital role in improving the current scenario by creating a sustainable infrastructure to offer adequate jobs for better livelihoods, enhance the economic health of the region, strengthen social networks, increase socially responsible attitudes toward using national resources, manage proper healthcare, and reduce environmental pollution. In fact, without sustainable infrastructure, coping with urbanization is impossible [
11].
Basically, sustainable infrastructure lies at the core of urban planning. Infrastructure is a main driver of development and comprehensive amplification. The enactment of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable development and the sustainable development goals (SDGs) present an instant challenge for developing countries. The gap between the infrastructure investments and the capacity of national budgets to fulfill this demand is widening throughout the world. There is no exception for Dhaka and Lahore as they have a scarcity of resources, inefficiency in expertise, and maladministration practices under the definition of developing nations. The many requirements for investment in the establishment of important infrastructures (safe roads, access to energy, purified water, better housing, and modern health care) is encouraging the private sector to participate in financing, risk and profit sharing, and obtaining a greater reputation together. A recent study [
12] stated that the SDGs will not be achieved without fostering the 3Ps. Thus, involving private partners in the public interest to develop sustainable infrastructure is encouraged here in this region.
European nations and a significant number of governments worldwide have been working along with their private partners to develop, finance, and manage different infrastructures and services [
13]. As the public sector internationally represents a substantial demand for sustainability, 3Ps has more chance to develop more environment friendly establishments and produce green products on a large-scale [
14]. Furthermore, 3Ps can develop municipalities worldwide by reconceptualizing themselves as Smart and Sustainable Cities (SSC) by implementing the sustainable development goals (SDG’s) of the United Nations (UN). However, social value creation in the form of hybrid organization by 3Ps is often hindered by the odds and is reported more as failure projects rather than as successful [
15,
16,
17]. So far, the increasing literature on 3Ps [
18,
19,
20] are only focusing the government’s positive expectations about the performance rather than the real [
15]. Thus, it becomes crucial to compare the real 3P projects with their estimated goals. Moreover, after making comprehensive literature reviews, no specific research dealing the current issue has been found for South Asia. In this study, we focused on goal number 11, which is to “Make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable” by using the 3Ps as one of the best mechanisms to do so [
21]. However, diverse interests [
18] and possible disparate agendas present in 3Ps [
22] which vary from broadly social to more narrowly private and political—that results in complex and heterogeneous allies between them—have different objectives and claims ex-post. Therefore, it is very important to develop a strategic contract at the beginning of the 3Ps project which later on shapes into a legal and complete contract such as BOT, etc. Here by considering goal number 11 as a standard, we observed the current 3P practices in the two cities of Dhaka and Lahore as true representatives of South Asia. Indeed, they are the most populous megacities of this region with many economic and industrial activities that threaten sustainability. Throughout the 1980s, urban residential growth in these areas was second after Africa, with an increase of 3.0%–6.5% per annum. This is alarming for the municipal infrastructure, which cannot match this increase due to fast urbanization agglomerations. Due to these, conurbations (which are already susceptible) are becoming more vulnerable to natural calamities such as sinking and landslides that can devastate informal lodging settlements, to earthquakes that can shock control networks and water arrangements [
23]. Thus, it has become one of the top priorities of these countries to regenerate, reshape, rephrase, and renew resources and infrastructure for the betterment of the economy, environment, and community in such a way that will be long lasting and beneficial for future generations. By considering the above scenario, the main target of this paper is to investigate the following important research questions: Is there any gap between practices of the existing and prospective 3P projects to improve sustainability conditions here? What are the major risk factors for practicing 3P projects here? And what strategy can be made to encourage more sustainable 3P projects in these two cities?
The above-mentioned research questions are answered by using a mixed method approach. In the first phase of the study, 3Ps experts of the region are contacted who are working on different existing projects. The first-hand information from these experts helped us to form interpretive sense of the existing projects and the gap between the prospects of 3Ps. The discussion with these experts also provided us an opportunity to refine the questionnaire about possible risk factors involved in 3P projects of the sampled region. The refined questionnaire was distributed among academicians, experts, and practitioners. The responses facilitated us to suggest and propose a strategy for sustainable 3P projects in two cities. This study primarily contributes in two ways. First, it will provide a guideline to policy makers to devise policies by using a two-fold approach, i.e., grasp urbanization with sustainable infrastructure delivery by the sustainable enactment of the 3Ps project. Second, it will bridge the knowledge gap by identifying the risk factors in the sustainable establishment of 3P projects in the developing countries.
Given the above discussion, our initial conceptual framework is shown in
Figure 1.
The remainder of the paper is set as follows:
Section 2 is a literature review mentioning the SDGs of the UN report with a focus on the goal 11, the role and the relevance of the 3Ps, its governance in the development of this goal by defining sustainable cities and their infrastructure, in 3P projects.
Section 3 is the research methodology, data profile, discussion of critical risk factors in sustainable execution of 3P projects.
Section 4 presents the case study of Dhaka and Lahore cities, mentioning a 3P detailed scenario in infrastructure projects; and finally, our conclusions and recommendations, followed by the limitations of this study.
3. Research Methodology
The methodology of this article was established using a mixed methods approach where first, a questionnaire survey from 3P experts from Bangladesh and Pakistan, as well detailed 3P projects in Dhaka and Lahore. This method of finding risk factors in the execution of 3P projects has been used by many researchers in different countries including China, Hong Kong, Malaysia, and the UK as described in References [
76,
77,
78,
79,
80,
81,
82,
83,
84]. According to Osipova, the support of practitioners and academicians is essential to illuminate the condition of how it can increase mutual risk management by intermingling different administration approaches [
85]. First, we verified the questionnaire through a pilot study conducted on a few practitioners as well as academics in the Agricultural University of Dhaka (Bangladesh) and Quaid-e-Azam International University Islamabad (Pakistan) after amendments were made to the questions and including other factors prior to finalization. Second, as global issues related to sustainability are multifaceted involving social environmental and economic tasks [
78], measuring sustainability is a tricky area at the macro level of cities. However, the best way to cover a maximum are possible by conceiving cities (data used were collected by secondary sources, like official websites, multilateral international agencies, local government websites, newspapers, archival records, reports) as case research as it creates a practice of interpretive logic making, which encourages the value of contextualization data in these cities related to building a sustainability concept through 3Ps. This same aspect of using case study based research was endorsed by Reference [
86], who described conceiving case research as a form of interpretive sense making, which supports the value of contextualization to hypothesizing. Thus, we concluded the results after verifying all information by considering the views of the 3P experts. After the pilot study, a finalized questionnaire was devised to collect data from both countries. The questionnaire consisted of three main sections. The first section addressed the respondents’ profile and understanding of public-private partnership projects. The second part was the meta-analysis of risk factors to find the critical investigation in selected emerging economies in all types of 3P projects. A five-point Liker scale (1 = least important factor; 2 = low important factor; 3 = moderate important factor; 4 = high important factor; and 5 = extreme important factor) was adopted to assess the risk criticality as risk assessment criticality is manifold and nebulous qualitative verbal terms are mandatory [
87]. The third part of the questionnaire provided free space for comments specifically for practitioners/academicians/public servants regarding their feedback for risk identification, critical risk factors, and key drivers for sustainable 3P projects in these emerging economies.
3.1. Data Profile
The participants in this study were from both countries (Pakistan and Bangladesh). The data were collected between the period of October 2015–June 2016. A total of 150 questionnaires were circulated, 75 in Bangladesh and 75 in Pakistan through social media (WhatsApp, emails, Facebook) as well as face to face. Among them, 42 from Bangladesh and 38 from Pakistan were received (53% of sent questionnaires returned). The details of the respondents are summarized in
Table 5.
3.2. Data Analysis
The whole average and standard deviations of risk factors were calculated and are presented in the subsequent figures and
Table 6. These results demonstrated that factors affecting the execution of 3P projects were the same in both republics at the macro-level with little variation difference (standard deviation). This may have been caused by the Pakistan economy being more unpredictable than Bangladesh due to numerous dynamics within the economy, such as imports, exports, FDI (foreign direct investments), India and Pakistan nuclear standoff, and terrorism prima [
81,
82]. The average and standard deviation between Bangladesh and Pakistan risk factors are displayed in
Figure 4.
According to the respondents’ feedback analysis, the most critical risk factor in the sustainable execution of 3P projects in developing nations (especially Bangladesh and Pakistan) was the unsoundness of political governments (Mean values are 4.70 and 4.60), which exist due to frequent military involvement since their inception and is the cause behind why stable democratic government was never established [
88].
The second and fourth critical risk factors were the lack of attention and engagement from government at national as well provincial/municipal levels, as well as policy commitment and consistency regardless of shifts in political regime (mean values were 4.62 and 4.53, and 4.41 and 4.38, respectively). In Pakistan, the appropriate 3P policy is still pending approval at parliament. A study of the country level review of partnerships conducted by the Asian Development Bank described that Pakistan had a policy that supported 3P power generation projects, but even that also fell prey of malpractices in 1990, when the Ehtesab Bureau [
89] unwrapped different types of queries from foreign investors of the awarded company Hub Power Co. and ultimately exited. A similar situation was created for foreign investors in the Lahore-Islamabad Motorway after a change of government. Therefore, these types of circumstances create reputational risks for governments. In Bangladesh, it has been recognized as a priority in the power sector as well as other corporate infrastructure projects like the initiation of a landlord port at Chittagong to gain the maximum output, but has not been established due to the political situation [
90].
The third critical factor was the inadequacy of legal frameworks (mean values of 4.43 and 4.40). Both countries do not have a mature legal framework to deal with the complex transactions involved in 3P projects. According to a recent study by the World Bank, for 3P projects to be successful, a sound legal and regulatory structure, monetary and commercial frameworks, institutional procedures, and their capacity to handle complex transactions are essential. This case was seen from a Pakistani context, when two big mining companies approached the government to develop the Reko Diq gold and copper mines, and have had to face litigation and linger in arbitration.
The fifth and sixth critical factors were strong political meddling (mean values of 4.29 and 4.24) and corruption and nepotism (mean values of 4.25 and 4.19). Different measures were taken to eradicate this menace from Pakistani society in the form of the Ehtasab Commission (1996), The National Accountability Bureau (NAB; 1999) with the National Anti-Corruption Strategy (NACS) and the PPRS (Public Procurement Regulatory Authority) [
91]. Furthermore, there has been substantial progress in the freedom of the press and media, which is auspicious in eradicating this evil [
92].
The aftermath of these developments can be seen in the recent report and ranking by Transparency International about South Asia where Pakistan’s ranking in the Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) 2015 was upgraded from the 50th most corrupt country in 2014 to 53rd in 2015 [
93,
94]. The menace of corruption also permeates Bangladesh. Twenty-two years’ worth of information (1971–1993) obtained from the Ministry of Finance demonstrated that an amount of BTD 1800 crore (USD
$22.22) was shattered due to unfair transactions and theft [
95]. Out of all types of corruption in politics and administration, the most omnipresent forms are monetary kickbacks [
96]. According to the new CPI in 2015, Bangladesh scored 25 with no improvement on its 2014 score, and was the second worst area in South Asia, just ahead of Afghanistan [
97].
The seventh and eighth critical risk factors in both countries were the problem of various persuasive economic events and the institutional reluctance of metropolitan owners to delegate assured structure visions to business (mean values of 4.10 and 4.12; 4.10 and 4.07, respectively). Without solid reasons and any specific agenda, but to create further instability in the government, a trend of protests and marches by political parties with campaigns against the government sometimes not only sabotages the business activities, but also creates a state of anarchy. The ninth and tenth critical factors were the lack in critical models required for 3P projects and the level of public consensus to such projects (mean values of 4.05 and 4.06; 4.08, and 4.02, respectively). Other important critical risk factors weighted by respondents in these countries were the withdrawal of government support networks (mean values of 4.02 and 3.94), the lack of sustainability devised 3P schemes on the metropolitan level (mean values of 3.81 and 4.13), inflation (4.04 and 4.0), and frequent legislation change (4.0 and 3.89).
5. Conclusions and Recommendations
The accomplishment of SDGs is closely associated to governance, and 3P is a distinctive practice of governance. This study provided us with insights of the existing 3P projects in the major metropolis of two developing countries. The experts of 3Ps of the regions found that there is a lacking of institutionalization in the field of 3P in these countries. The cases research of different 3P projects in Dhaka and Lahore highlighted the potential of 3Ps in the region. However, the lack of policy-making in the domain of 3Ps may create problems for the Prospect 3Ps. The results of the study indicated that the incompleteness of the contract in 3Ps is the major concern of the existing 3Ps. The institutional governance which provides a solution for complete contracts like BOT, BOOT, etc. may overcome this problem. Further, this study also pointed out some of the major risk factors that are involved in the existing 3Ps. Political instability is a concerning risk factor of the existing 3Ps. The political instability promotes distrust among the actors of 3Ps which causes a failure of the project. Meanwhile, the remaining risk factors identified in this study such as lack of attention and engagement from the government at national and provincial level, inadequacy of legal frameworks, strong political meddling, corruption and nepotism, persuasive economic events and the institutional reluctance of metropolitan owners to delegate assure structure vision to business, and lack of critical models required for 3Ps, should not be ignored. Similar critical risk factors like lack of support from government, inadequate experience of PPP, unstable government, lack of legal framework identified by Ref. [
107] in Singapore and amendments in law, delay in approvals, corruption found by Ref. [
108] in China in public private partnership projects, endorse this study result in Bangladesh and Pakistan.
A focus on governance implies focus on procedures rather than organizations. Governance encompasses institutions of state and the practice through which institutions intermingle [
109], and good governance includes the participation and actions of all players (i.e., local, regional and central governments, private parties, citizens, and all other stakeholders) [
110]. This implies that only coherent progression of various tasks is expected to engender added value. In joint venture 3P practice, most importantly, public players consider added value in content and procedure, whereas private parties primarily account for the most important financial, practice and external added value [
20]. Thus, these added values are associated with the vision of both public and private players [
111], and the wide-ranging idea is that collaboration leads to improved outcomes [
112]. Furthermore, UN multilateral development banks, multilateral agencies, and other international organizations will support, not only on a worldwide level, but also at local, regional, and national levels.
By focusing especially on Bangladesh and Pakistan for the sustainable development of 3P projects, it is recommended that there should be stability in the procedures concerning 3P projects regardless of the change of political government, which can be only possible with the establishment of clear policy frameworks. Further, management should fully support 3P projects and maintain focus on constructing their structure using a 3P model. Governments should provide an atmosphere where the institutional reluctance of metropolitan owners to delegate assured infrastructure visions to business is removed. Moreover, management should explain the cost of the ventures and the potential revenue to ensure that stakeholders are informed of the financial health. It is also recommended that strong legal frameworks should be established at local as well as national levels to identify and follow all rules and regulations, which would reduce any legal and financial ramifications. In order to ensure transparency at every stage of the project, governments should establish an SPV (special purpose vehicle) for all types of projects and employ experts with high reliability and impeccable reputational standards with knowledge. Further, governments should propose enhanced and customized facilities to appeal and sustain dynamic routes. There should be adaptation capacities between the partnerships (modification in institutional structure). It is imperative to focus on three different strategies for the execution of sustainable urbanization projects namely rural-urban integration, mobilization, and sustainability of urban public finance and regional growth policies.
By going forward, the SDGs are intended to promote an integrated approach, going beyond the out-of-date silo “three pillars” methodology (economic, social, and environmental pillars). The “nexus” methodology of water, food, and energy is a significant model of an assimilated approach, but other nexuses between other area combinations could also be considered. Finally, it is estimated that research outputs would enlighten policy makers and local practitioners of the right processes to embrace when engaging in upcoming ventures.