Climate Changes and Their Impact on Agricultural Market Systems: Examples from Nepal
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Study Area
2.2. Climate and Geospatial Datasets
2.3. Risk and Vulnerability Assessment of Market Systems
2.4. Limitations of the Date Set
3. Results and Discussion
3.1. Climate Change: Observed and Projected across Nepal
3.2. Risk and Vulnerability Assessment of Market Systems
3.2.1. Analysed Sub-Sectors
3.2.2. Current and Potential Hazards
3.2.3. Impact on Market Functions
4. Conclusions and Recommendations
Acknowledgments
Author Contributions
Conflicts of Interest
Appendix A
Description | Abbreviation | Source |
---|---|---|
WorldClim Version 1.4, bioclimatic variables: | Hijmans et al., 2005 | |
| Tmean | |
| Tmax | |
| Tmin | |
| Prec | |
Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP-5) Earth System Models (n = 63) for 2035–2065 | ||
| RCP2.6 | |
| RCP4.5 | Zomer et al., 2014 |
| RCP6.0 | Zomer et al., 2015 |
| RCP8.5 | |
Administrative boundaries | GoN 1988 |
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Tmin (°C) | Tmean (°C) | Tmax (°C) | Prec (mm) | |||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2000 | RCP2.6 | RCP4.5 | RCP6.0 | RCP8.5 | 2000 | RCP2.6 | RCP4.5 | RCP6.0 | RCP8.5 | 2000 | RCP2.6 | RCP4.5 | RCP6.0 | RCP8.5 | 2000 | RCP2.6 | RCP4.5 | RCP6.0 | RCP8.5 | |
Baitadi | 12.0 | 13.9 | 14.4 | 14.2 | 15.0 | 17.3 | 19.1 | 19.6 | 19.3 | 20.2 | 22.6 | 24.3 | 24.8 | 24.5 | 25.3 | 1550 | 1719 | 1677 | 1715 | 1709 |
Central | 14.0 | 15.8 | 16.2 | 15.9 | 16.8 | 19.6 | 21.3 | 21.7 | 21.4 | 22.2 | 25.2 | 26.7 | 27.3 | 26.9 | 27.7 | 1931 | 2138 | 2144 | 2173 | 2140 |
Northwest | 3.5 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 5.7 | 6.6 | 8.6 | 10.6 | 11.1 | 10.8 | 11.7 | 13.9 | 15.7 | 16.3 | 15.8 | 16.8 | 962 | 1063 | 1030 | 1054 | 1041 |
Nuwakot | 12.2 | 14.1 | 14.7 | 14.3 | 15.2 | 17.8 | 19.6 | 20.1 | 19.7 | 20.6 | 23.3 | 25.0 | 25.5 | 25.1 | 26.0 | 1818 | 1998 | 1974 | 1989 | 1966 |
Sindhuli | 15.4 | 17.0 | 17.5 | 17.2 | 18.0 | 21.0 | 22.5 | 23.0 | 22.7 | 23.4 | 26.6 | 28.1 | 28.5 | 28.2 | 28.9 | 1472 | 1587 | 1573 | 1617 | 1573 |
Southeast | 18.4 | 19.9 | 20.4 | 20.1 | 20.8 | 24.1 | 25.6 | 26.1 | 25.8 | 26.5 | 30.0 | 31.3 | 31.8 | 31.4 | 32.1 | 1543 | 1680 | 1672 | 1713 | 1678 |
Southwest | 17.6 | 19.3 | 19.7 | 19.5 | 20.3 | 23.6 | 25.2 | 25.7 | 25.4 | 26.2 | 29.7 | 31.1 | 31.7 | 31.4 | 32.1 | 1603 | 1821 | 1820 | 1827 | 1849 |
Disaster | Banana | Charcoal | Coffee | Macadamia | Orange | Riverbed Vegetables | Walnut | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Meteorological | Changing temperature | Increase | X | X | X | X | X | ||
Diurnal variation | X | ||||||||
Seasonal variation | X | X | X | ||||||
Changing precipitation | Decrease | X | X | X | X | ||||
Seasonal variation | X | ||||||||
Changing humidity | Increase | X | |||||||
Storm | Hail | X | X | X | |||||
Wind | X | X | X | X | X | ||||
Hydrological | Flood | X | |||||||
Climatological | Drought | X | X | X | X | X | |||
Wildfire | Forest fire | X | |||||||
Biological | Epidemic | Viral disease | X | ||||||
Fungal disease | X | X | X | X | |||||
Insect infestation | X | X | X | X | X |
Market Functions | Climate Risk Impact | Relevant Climate Risks | Remarks on Impacts | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Core | Production | Overall mostly reduced productivity (−) | Temporal shift of wind storms | Changing yields per plant (−/+) |
Increased losses from post-harvest losses and damage (−) | Less rainfall and water table reduced | Increased mortality of plants (−) | ||
Crop production possible in new locations (at higher elevations) (+) | Increasing diurnal variation | Lower quality (−) | ||
Changing seasonal temperature | Increased cost of production due to cost of insurance, need for irrigation and losses (−) | |||
Increasing temperature | Production zones moving to new areas, particularly altitudinal shifts, conflict with natural vegetation (+/−) | |||
Processing | Changes in processing timing (+/−) | Changes in fog pattern | Changes in productivity and quality (+/−) | |
Increased temperature | ||||
Changes in process management practices (+/−) | Risk of fire | |||
Trading/ storage | Increased post-harvest and storage losses (-) | Changing seasonal temperature (heat) | Financial losses by traders and retailers (+/−) | |
Increased humidity | ||||
Sales | Temporal shift of production (+/−) | Increased temperature | Changes in consumption patterns (+/−) | |
Reduced requirements of the products (−) | Shift in risk patterns | |||
Support | Sapling supply | Increased sapling mortality (−) | Changing diurnal variation | Reduced availability of saplings (−) |
Sapling production possible at other locations (e.g., higher elevation) (+/−) | ||||
Changes in management practices (+/−) | Changing seasonal temperature | Shift of plantation season (+/−) | ||
Research | Demand of new varieties and new management practices (+/−) | All risks | Increased costs (−) | |
Availability of resistant and adapted material at required quantities (−) | ||||
Crop insurance | Productivity losses (−) | Damage from wind and storm | Production cost increased (−) | |
Increased fungal and bacterial diseases due to diurnal variation and changing seasonal temperature | ||||
Rules | Agriculture policy | Need for new standards and quality control (+/−) | Increasing temperature | Changes in quality (+/−) |
Crop production possible in new locations (at higher elevations) (+/−) | Increased disease and post occurrence | Production zones moving to new areas, particularly altitudinal shifts (+/−) |
Banana |
|
Charcoal |
|
Coffee |
|
Macadamia |
|
Orange |
|
Riverbed vegetables |
|
Walnut |
|
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Barrueto, A.K.; Merz, J.; Clot, N.; Hammer, T. Climate Changes and Their Impact on Agricultural Market Systems: Examples from Nepal. Sustainability 2017, 9, 2207. https://doi.org/10.3390/su9122207
Barrueto AK, Merz J, Clot N, Hammer T. Climate Changes and Their Impact on Agricultural Market Systems: Examples from Nepal. Sustainability. 2017; 9(12):2207. https://doi.org/10.3390/su9122207
Chicago/Turabian StyleBarrueto, Andrea Karin, Juerg Merz, Nicole Clot, and Thomas Hammer. 2017. "Climate Changes and Their Impact on Agricultural Market Systems: Examples from Nepal" Sustainability 9, no. 12: 2207. https://doi.org/10.3390/su9122207