Adaptive Effectiveness of Irrigated Area Expansion in Mitigating the Impacts of Climate Change on Crop Yields in Northern China †
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Data and Pretreatment
2.2. Statistical Model
2.3. Climate Scenarios
2.4. Irrigated Area Scenarios
3. Results
3.1. Irrigated Areas and Crop Yields under the Baseline Climate
3.2. Effects of Climate and Irrigation on Crop Yields
3.3. Future Climate Scenario
3.4. Climate Impacts on Yields under Three Irrigated Area Scenarios
4. Discussion
4.1. Yield Responses to Climate and Irrigated Areas
4.2. Future Climate Impacts and Adaptation by Expanding Irrigated Areas
4.3. Implications for the Adaptive Policies for Climate Change in China
5. Conclusions
Supplementary Materials
Acknowledgments
Author contributions
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Provinces | ID | Rice Sowing | Harvest | Tavg | Wheat Sowing | Harvest | Tavg | Maize Sowing | Harvest | Tavg | Soybean Sowing | Harvest | Tavg |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Northeast | |||||||||||||
Heilongjiang | 1 | 1 May | 30 September | 17.5 | 1 April | 31 July | 14.8 | 1 May | 30 September | 17.5 | 1 May | 30 September | 17.5 |
Jilin | 2 | 1 May | 30 September | 18.1 | 1 April | 31 July | 15.5 | 1 May | 30 September | 18.1 | 1 May | 30 September | 18.1 |
Liaoning | 3 | 1 May | 30 September | 20.4 | 1 April | 31 July | 17.8 | 1 May | 30 September | 20.4 | 1 May | 30 September | 20.4 |
North | |||||||||||||
Beijing | 4 | 1 April | 30 September | 20.1 | 1 October | 30 Jun. | 6.5 | 1 June | 30 September | 22.5 | 1–30 June | 30 September | 22.5 |
Hebei | 5 | 1 April | 30 September | 21.4 | 1 October | 30 June | 8.4 | 1 June | 30 September | 23.7 | 1–30 June | 30 September | 23.7 |
Tianjin | 6 | 1 April | 30 September | 22.3 | 1 October | 30 June | 9.0 | 1 June | 30 September | 24.7 | 1–30 June | 30 September | 24.7 |
Shandong | 7 | 1 April | 30 September | 22.0 | 1 October | 30 June | 10.0 | 1 June | 30 September | 24.5 | 1–30 June | 30 September | 24.5 |
Henan | 8 | 1 April | 30 September | 22.6 | 1 October | 30 June | 11.4 | 1 June | 30 September | 24.8 | 1–30 June | 30 September | 24.8 |
Inner Mongolia | 9 | 1May | 30 September | 17.0 | 1 April | 31 July | 14.7 | 1May | 30 September | 17.0 | 1May | 30 September | 17.0 |
Northwest | |||||||||||||
Shanxi | 10 | 1 May | 30 September | 19.2 | 1 October | 30 June | 5.5 | 1 May | 30 September | 19.2 | 1 May | 30 September | 19.2 |
Shaanxi | 11 | 1 May | 30 September | 20.3 | 1 October | 30 June | 8.2 | 1 May | 30 September | 20.3 | 1 May | 30 September | 20.3 |
Ningxia | 12 | 1 May | 30 September | 18.1 | 1 October | 30 June | 4.4 | 1 May | 30 September | 18.1 | 1 May | 30 September | 18.1 |
Gansu | 13 | 1 April | 30 September | 16.0 | 1 October | 30 June | 3.8 | 1 May | 30 September | 16.0 | 1 May | 30 September | 16.0 |
Qinghai | 14 | NA | NA | NA | 1 March | 31 July | 3.2 | 1 May | 30 September | 8.1 | 1 May | 30 September | 8.1 |
Xinjiang | 15 | 1 May | 30 September | 17.3 | 1 October | 30 June | 1.5 | 1 May | 30 September | 17.3 | 1 May | 30 September | 17.3 |
Variables | Regression Coefficients | t-Statistic | 95% CI |
---|---|---|---|
PIA | 0.000372 | 0.41 | (−0.0013,0.0019) |
PIA2 | −4.68 × 10−6 | −1.07 | (−1.53 × 10−5,5.618 × 10−6) |
Tavg | −0.0107 | −1.39 | (−0.031,0.0088) |
Tavg2 | −0.00052 * | −1.84 | (−0.001,−0.0001) |
SPEI | 0.260 *** | 36.2 | (0.24,0.28) |
SPEI2 | −0.143 *** | −21.72 | (−0.16,−0.12) |
PIA × Tavg | 6.66 × 10−5 ** | −25.88 | (0.00002,0.00013) |
PIA × SPEI | −0.00306 ** | 2.08 | (−0.0033,−0.0027) |
Sample size | 28341 | ||
R2 | 0.9771 | ||
F-value | 330.9 | ||
p-value | <0.001 |
RCP | RCP2.6 | RCP8.5 |
---|---|---|
Temperature change (°C) | 1.6 | 2.0 |
SPEI change (−) | −0.2 | −0.3 |
Percentage yield change with no change in irrigated area (%) | −4.7 | −7.3 |
Percentage yield change with 4.4% increase in irrigated area (%) | −4.0 | −6.5 |
Percentage yield change with 10% increase in irrigated area (%) | −3.2 | −5.5 |
Percentage yield change with 15% increase in irrigated area (%) | −2.5 | −4.6 |
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Zhang, T.; Wang, J.; Teng, Y. Adaptive Effectiveness of Irrigated Area Expansion in Mitigating the Impacts of Climate Change on Crop Yields in Northern China. Sustainability 2017, 9, 851. https://doi.org/10.3390/su9050851
Zhang T, Wang J, Teng Y. Adaptive Effectiveness of Irrigated Area Expansion in Mitigating the Impacts of Climate Change on Crop Yields in Northern China. Sustainability. 2017; 9(5):851. https://doi.org/10.3390/su9050851
Chicago/Turabian StyleZhang, Tianyi, Jinxia Wang, and Yishu Teng. 2017. "Adaptive Effectiveness of Irrigated Area Expansion in Mitigating the Impacts of Climate Change on Crop Yields in Northern China" Sustainability 9, no. 5: 851. https://doi.org/10.3390/su9050851
APA StyleZhang, T., Wang, J., & Teng, Y. (2017). Adaptive Effectiveness of Irrigated Area Expansion in Mitigating the Impacts of Climate Change on Crop Yields in Northern China. Sustainability, 9(5), 851. https://doi.org/10.3390/su9050851