Predicting Foreign Tourists for the Tourism Industry Using Soft Computing-Based Grey–Markov Models
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. NNGM(1,1) for Generating Predicted Values
3. The Proposed SC-MCGM(1,1) Model
3.1. Generating Transition Probability Matrices
3.2. Determining Centers for Individual States
3.3. Computing Predicted Residual Values
3.4. FLN for Determining New Predicted Values
4. A Genetic Algorithm for Constructing the SC-MCGM(1,1)
4.1. Selection
4.2. Crossover
4.3. Mutation
4.4. Algorithm for Constructing the Proposed Model
- Step 1.
- InitializationGenerate nsize chromosomes.
- Step 2.
- Compute fitness valuesCompute the fitness value of each chromosome in the current population.
- Step 3.
- Generate new chromosomesGenerate nsize new chromosomes from the current population using selection, crossover, and mutation.
- Step 4.
- Apply elitist strategyRandomly remove ndel strings from the newly generated nsize strings, and replace them with ndel best chromosomes in the current population.
- Step 5.
- Termination testReturn to Step 2 if the stopping condition is not satisfied.
5. Empirical Results
5.1. Prediction of Foreign Tourists for Taiwan
5.2. Prediction of Foreign Tourists for China
5.3. Statistical Analysis
6. Discussion and Conclusions
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Year | Japan | Hong Kong/Macao | Korea | China | USA | Southeast Asia |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2001 | 976,750 | 435,164 | 85,744 | 348,808 | 488,968 | |
2002 | 998,497 | 456,554 | 83,624 | 377,470 | 530,319 | |
2003 | 657,053 | 323,178 | 92,893 | 272,858 | 457,103 | |
2004 | 887,311 | 417,087 | 148,095 | 382,822 | 568,269 | |
2005 | 1,124,334 | 432,718 | 182,517 | 390,929 | 636,925 | |
2006 | 1,161,489 | 431,884 | 196,260 | 394,802 | 643,338 | |
2007 | 1,166,380 | 491,437 | 225,814 | 397,965 | 700,287 | |
2008 | 1,086,691 | 618,667 | 252,266 | 329,204 | 387,197 | 725,751 |
2009 | 1,000,661 | 718,806 | 167,641 | 972,123 | 369,258 | 689,027 |
2010 | 1,080,153 | 794,362 | 216,901 | 1,630,735 | 395,729 | 911,174 |
2011 | 1,294,758 | 817,944 | 242,902 | 1,784,185 | 412,617 | 1,071,975 |
2012 | 1,432,315 | 1,016,356 | 259,089 | 2,586,428 | 411,416 | 1,132,592 |
2013 | 1,421,550 | 1,183,341 | 351,301 | 2,874,702 | 414,060 | 1,261,596 |
2014 | 1,634,790 | 1,375,770 | 527,684 | 3,987,152 | 458,691 | 1,388,305 |
2015 | 1,627,229 | 1,513,597 | 658,757 | 4,184,102 | 479,452 | 1,425,485 |
2016 | 1,895,702 | 1,614,803 | 884,397 | 3,511,734 | 523,888 | 1,653,908 |
Economy | GM(1,1) | MCGM(1,1) | SGM(1,1) | MCSGM(1,1) | CMCSGM(1,1) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Japan | 11.01 | 12.41 | 6.50 | 5.62 | 4.27 |
Hong Kong/Macao | 2.40 | 6.58 | 6.36 | 6.83 | 7.40 |
Korea | 33.35 | 17.96 | 0.47 | 1.21 | 3.76 |
China | 58.05 | 61.54 | 45.79 | 49.32 | 50.19 |
USA | 11.40 | 13.18 | 0.88 | 0.45 | 0.10 |
Southeast Asia | 3.44 | 1.16 | 7.59 | 7.13 | 6.52 |
Economy | SC-MCGM(1,1) | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
m = 1 | m = 2 | m = 3 | m = 4 | |
Japan | 6.41 | 1.31 | 3.72 | 2.96 |
Hong Kong/Macao | 5.52 | 5.36 | 4.71 | 4.60 |
Korea | 3.47 | 0.38 | 0.46 | 0.05 |
China | 40.58 | 41.60 | 41.91 | 40.91 |
USA | 0.78 | 0.30 | 0.36 | 0.59 |
Southeast Asia | 6.94 | 5.03 | 4.95 | 4.78 |
Economy | GM(1,1) | MCGM(1,1) | SGM(1,1) | MCSGM(1,1) | CMCSGM(1,1) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Korea | 35.90 | 30.38 | 0.84 | 1.32 | 0.97 |
Japan | 39.57 | 15.26 | 20.93 | 21.02 | 15.69 |
Russia | 44.13 | 36.42 | 2.72 | 3.05 | 2.90 |
USA | 20.5 | 13.68 | 5.22 | 2.95 | 2.92 |
Malaysia | 28.81 | 27.81 | 11.73 | 11.50 | 7.24 |
Mongolia | 1.39 | 3.12 | 0.79 | 1.62 | 1.82 |
Philippines | 10.16 | 7.63 | 0.67 | 0.69 | 0.91 |
Singapore | 31.68 | 18.92 | 12.85 | 5.83 | 8.03 |
Economy | SC-MCGM(1,1) | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
m = 1 | m = 2 | m = 3 | m = 4 | |
Korea | 0.47 | 0.72 | 0.77 | 0.77 |
Japan | 21.08 | 20.74 | 20.17 | 20.83 |
Russia | 1.01 | 1.63 | 0.67 | 3.40 |
USA | 5.36 | 0.90 | 2.38 | 1.36 |
Malaysia | 10.79 | 9.86 | 7.03 | 7.62 |
Mongolia | 0.16 | 0.11 | 0.27 | 0.23 |
Philippines | 0.23 | 0.07 | 1.66 | 1.00 |
Singapore | 11.04 | 5.22 | 6.74 | 6.54 |
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Hu, Y.-C. Predicting Foreign Tourists for the Tourism Industry Using Soft Computing-Based Grey–Markov Models. Sustainability 2017, 9, 1228. https://doi.org/10.3390/su9071228
Hu Y-C. Predicting Foreign Tourists for the Tourism Industry Using Soft Computing-Based Grey–Markov Models. Sustainability. 2017; 9(7):1228. https://doi.org/10.3390/su9071228
Chicago/Turabian StyleHu, Yi-Chung. 2017. "Predicting Foreign Tourists for the Tourism Industry Using Soft Computing-Based Grey–Markov Models" Sustainability 9, no. 7: 1228. https://doi.org/10.3390/su9071228