Determining Optimal Location for Mangrove Planting Using Remote Sensing and Climate Model Projection in Southeast Asia

The decreasing area of mangroves is an ongoing problem since, between 1980 and 2005, one-third of the world’s mangroves were lost. Rehabilitation and restoration strategies are required to address this situation. However, mangroves do not always respond well to these strategies and have high mortality due to several growth limiting parameters. This study developed a land suitability map for new mangrove plantations in different Southeast Asian countries for both current and future climates at a 250-m resolution. Hydrodynamic, geomorphological, climatic, and socio-economic parameters and three representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5) for 2050 and 2070 with two global climate model datasets (the Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques Climate model version 5 [CNRM-CM5.1] and the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate [MIROC5]) were used to predict suitable areas for mangrove planting. An analytical hierarchy process (AHP) was used to determine the level of importance for each parameter. To test the accuracy of the results, the mangrove land suitability analysis were further compared using different weights in every parameter. The sensitivity test using the Wilcoxon test was also carried out to test which variables had changed with the first weight and the AHP weight. The land suitability products from this study were compared with those from previous studies. The differences in land suitability for each country in Southeast Asia in 2050 and 2070 to analyze the differences in each RCP scenario and their effects on the mangrove land suitability were also assessed. Currently, there is 398,000 ha of potentially suitable land for mangrove planting in Southeast Asia, and this study shows that it will increase between now and 2070. Indonesia account for 67.34% of the total land area in the “very suitable” and “suitable” class categories. The RCP 8.5 scenario in 2070, with both the MIROC5 and CNRM-CM5.1 models, resulted in the largest area of a “very suitable” class category for mangrove planting. This study provides information for the migration of mangrove forests to the land, alleviating many drawbacks, especially for ecosystems.