Spatial Models of Solar and Terrestrial Radiation Budgets and Machine Learning: A Review †
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
- The temporal range of related publications was unlimited for the first three classifications (Figure 1) and set to no more than five years old for the fourth classification “Machine Learning applied to spatial models of terrestrial radiation” (since 2018).
- The document type focused only on scientific articles and reviews in the final phase of the search.
- The title of the related publication should contain at least two of the exposed keywords (Figure 1).
- The areas or fields of the publications should be highly related to the fields of geotechnologies, geomatics, planetary sciences, Earth observation, or geographic information systems.
- The language was limited to English results; however, it was later modified to 80% of publications in English and 20% in other languages to avoid biasing possible relevant information.
- The publication stage was configured to consider only published articles and discard pre-published articles during the review process. This implies that they would have already been through previous processes of review, corrections, or validation of their results, and consequently they would be considered works of higher quality.
3. Results
3.1. General Description of Results
3.2. Search Strategy: Procedures and Metrics
3.3. Classification of Results
3.3.1. Classification According to Interpolation Methods
3.3.2. Classification According to Sensors
3.3.3. Classification According to Applications
3.3.4. Machine Learning Applied to Earth Radiation Modeling
4. Discussion
- Solar and terrestrial radiation prediction: Models successfully incorporated factors such as geographical location, time of day, date, and weather conditions to make more accurate predictions. An example of this is [12], which presented a new method for predicting solar irradiance (SI) directly correlated with photovoltaic energy production. The proposed method exceled in predicting SI, especially during highly intermittent weather periods, by incorporating multiple historical climatic parameters to generate accurate future value predictions.
- Spatial interpolation: Solar and terrestrial radiation values were estimated at intermediate locations between known measurement stations, thereby improving the spatial resolution of the data. Two studies were particularly relevant: the first by [25] applied RFR, enabling precise and highly efficient estimation of daily averaged longwave downward radiation (LWDR). Compared to existing methods and products, this method is efficient, exhibits superior applicability, and provides reliable accuracy. The second study by [26] compared RF algorithms with seven traditional interpolation methods to determine the benefits of using machine learning in solar radiation observations.
- Data correction: Machine learning algorithms were used to correct errors or inconsistencies in collected solar and terrestrial radiation data, enhancing the quality of datasets and making predictions more reliable. Notably, [37] contributed to the imputation and correction of missing solar radiation data under different atmospheric conditions through the application of the multiple imputation by chained equations (MICE) method.
- Solar system design optimization: This involves assisting in the planning of the location and orientation of solar panels to maximize their efficiency considering the spatial and temporal variability of solar radiation. An exemplary contribution is the research by [59], which proposed a novel estimation approach for monthly average daily solar radiation with a complex spatial pattern using machine learning techniques, focusing on estimating the solar radiation potential in an extensive region of China for energy utilization. Additionally, the research by [15] is noteworthy, presenting a method based on CNN for high-resolution spatiotemporal evaluation of solar potential using remote sensing data. The proposed method was tested with a simulation algorithm to find suitable locations for future photovoltaic systems placement.
- Adaptation to changing weather conditions: Models were dynamically adapted to changing weather conditions to provide real-time estimates of meteorological variables. The contribution by [14] is particularly valuable, focusing on estimating daily evapotranspiration (ET) with a novel approach based on four popular machine learning methods (DF, DNN, RF, XGB) to reconstruct the ET product. Remote sensing-based models generally struggle to generate continuous spatiotemporal ET due to cloud cover and model failure. The results showed that all methods performed well, with the RF method being particularly robust.
- Uncertainty analysis: Machine learning algorithms evaluated the reliability of solar radiation budget estimates, facilitating informed decision making. The work by [65] is exemplary, focusing on predicting surface solar radiation and diffuse solar radiation by combining six ML techniques (XGBoost, RF, MARS, MLP, DNN, and LightGBM) in radiative transfer models. This initial study developed hybrid models with high computational speed and high accuracy to estimate global solar radiation (GSR) and quantify the uncertainty caused by ambiguities in atmospheric and surface parameter measurements.
- Deep learning models: Techniques such as convolutional and recurrent neural networks were applied to capture complex and nonlinear patterns in solar and terrestrial radiation data, leading to more accurate predictions. Therefore, the work of [15], which focused on the high-resolution spatiotemporal assessment of solar potential from remote sensing data using deep learning, is important to highlight.
- Integration of multiple data sources: The fusion of data from various sources, such as satellite images, weather stations, and historical data, improved the accuracy of solar radiation estimation. In this regard, the research by [26] in 2021 stands out for integrating various types of data, including a range of climatic variables (various temperature indices, cloud cover, etc.), temporal point indicators (years and months of radiation observations), and geographical characteristics of locations (latitude, longitude, etc.). This research focused on interpolating monthly anomalies in downward solar radiation (RSD) from the surface based on the RF machine learning method.
- Temporal and spatial variability: Solar radiation varies over time and space. Models must be able to capture this variability to provide accurate estimates.
- Missing or noisy data: A lack of data for certain locations or times can affect prediction accuracy. Additionally, the presence of outliers may require preprocessing techniques such as statistical assessments of data quality.
- Model calibration: It is important to calibrate and validate models using independent datasets to ensure their robustness and generalization.
- Model interpretation: The inherent complexity of some machine learning models, such as neural networks, can make interpreting results challenging. Developing interpretable models is crucial for gaining user and urban planner confidence.
- Scalability: Model scalability should be considered for large-scale applications, such as city or regional planning.
5. Conclusions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Ref. | Study | Method | Conclusions |
---|---|---|---|
[25] | “Upscaling of LongWave Downward Radiation (LWDR) from Instantaneous to Any Temporal Scale: Algorithms, Validation, and Comparison” | RFR | The random forest regression (RFR) method enables a precise and highly efficient estimation of the daily averaged LWDR. In comparison to existing methods and products, this method is efficient and exhibits superior applicability and reliable accuracy. |
[26] | “A Machine Learning Technique for Spatial Interpolation of Solar Radiation Observations” | ML and seven interpolation methods | The average MAE (mean absolute error) of conventional interpolation methods is 21.3 W/m2, more than double that of the RF method, with an average standard deviation of 6.4 W/m2, over four times higher than RF. This underscores the benefits of employing machine learning in environmental research. |
[27] | “Interpolation Methods Applied to the Spatialization of Monthly Solar Irradiation in a Region of Complex Terrain in the State of Rio de Janeiro in the Southeast of Brazil” | IDW, SpT, OK | The aim of this study was to assess different interpolation methods for the monthly average of daily irradiance. The Inverse distance weighting (IDW), tension spline (SpT), and ordinary kriging (OK) methods were evaluated. The IDW and SpT methods demonstrated satisfactory performance (coefficient of determination: R2 > 0.90 for IDW and >0.80 for SpT). |
[28] | “El Riesgo de Contaminación por Ozono en Dos Ciudades Españolas (Mad. Sev.) Estudio Hecho con Modelado Espacial y SIG.” | IDW | The results obtained indicate that suburban or rural areas are the most contaminated by ozone, constituting risk areas for the population, whereas ozone values are much lower in city centers. |
[10] | “Performance Comparison of Two Global Solar Radiation Models for Spatial Interpolation Purposes” | IDW, ANN | IDW is easier to implement and slightly more accurate than artificial neural networks (ANNs). Using data from sites with similar climate to the predicted region enhances the accuracy of the IDW model. |
[29] | “REGNIE Interpolation for Rain and Temperature in the Andean, Caribbean and Pacific Regions of Colombia” | MLR | They employed the rainfall model REGNIE to interpolate rainfall and mean air temperature (Tmed) in Colombia. The model enhanced the accuracy and spatial resolution of the interpolations, particularly for Tmed, which achieved multiple linear regression (MLR) at R2 = 0.94. |
[30] | “Spatial Interpolation of Climate Variables in Northern Germany—Influence of Temporal Resolution and Network Density” | OK, KED | Geostatistical techniques had the best performance for all climatic variables. |
[31] | “A Guideline to Select an Estimation Model of Daily Global Solar Radiation between Geostatistical Interpolation and Stochastic Simulation Approaches” | IDW, OK | Geostatistical methods provided better representation than simulation models in regions with a high density of stations. Among the geostatistical methodologies employed, OK exhibited the best performance. |
[32] | “Mathematical Interpolation Methods for Spatial Estimation of Global Horizontal Irradiation in Castilla-León, Spain” | IDW, Spline, OK, NN | OK is the best interpolation method compared to the others, yielding the lowest errors. |
[11] | “Spatiotemporal Interpolation and Forecast of Irradiance Data Using Kriging” | OK | Kriging can be applied to both ground-measured data and satellite-derived irradiance data. For interpolation, sparsely distributed ground data are recommended; however, when temporally scaled or forecasted, OK shows promise for both data sources. |
[33] | “Assessing the Performance of Several Rainfall Interpolation Methods as Evaluated by a Conceptual Hydrological Model” | IDW, OK, KED | The performance of deterministic methods is comparable to geostatistical methods in daily series. In hourly series, deterministic methods showed significantly better performance. |
[34] | “Comparing Interpolation Techniques for Monthly Rainfall Mapping Using Multiple Evaluation Criteria and Auxiliary Data Sources: A Case Study of Sri Lanka” | IDW, OK, TPS | Most methods approximated the spatial distribution of precipitation at a high level for May. Thin plate splines (TPS) performed better with high precipitation, and their pattern was smooth. |
[35] | “Ground-measurement GHI Map for Qatar” | IDW | The combination of satellite and ground-based solar data provided more reliable values with lower uncertainties. |
[36] | “El Balance de Radiación y Modelos de Radiación Neta para Diferentes Superficies: Estudio Experimental en Mexicali, México” | MLR | Statistical models of net radiation were proposed as functions of incoming solar radiation and net shortwave radiation, with R2 exceeding 0.97. |
[37] | “Missing Data Imputation of Solar Radiation Data under Different Atmospheric Conditions” | IDW. MICE, MLR | They measured global solar irradiance on a flat surface using a network of stations located in Galicia, Spain. The best results were obtained with the multiple imputation by chained equations (MICE) method. |
[38] | “Comparison and Evaluation of Spatial Interpolation Schemes for Daily Rainfall in Data Scarce Regions” | IDW, OK | Differences between methods can be significant on a smaller temporal and spatial scale (monthly). The choice of covariates in OK had a large impact on the amount of precipitation and runoff. |
[39] | “Interpolation of Daily Solar Radiation for New Zealand Using a Satellite Derived Cloud Cover Surface” | TPS | The lowest error was obtained when calculating radiation fields using satellite data. |
[40] | “Spatial Interpolation and Estimation of Solar Irradiation by Cumulative Variograms” | Cumul. variogram | The authors estimated the solar irradiation value at any point where measurements of global solar irradiation existed. The goal was to determine the change in spatial variability with distance from a given set of irradiation data. |
Sensor | Description/Use |
---|---|
GeoCarb, OCO-2 OCO-3, CERES RAVAN | Satellite data provide an independent means of investigating global temperature trends, particularly for ocean surface and atmosphere. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of oceans, which are directly related to heat transfer between the atmosphere and oceans, serve as important indicators of the state of the climate system [41]. |
AIRS, CERES, MODIS, AMSR-E, GRACE FO, ICESat-2, SUOMI NPP | Snow and ice cover retreat is a significant indicator of global warming. Seasonal snow and ice melt can cause positive feedback by reducing Earth’s surface albedo, thereby contributing to sea level rise [42,43]. |
ISS-RapidScat GRACE, Jason-3 Jason CS, OSTM | Sea level depends on climatic conditions influenced by climate change (radiative forcing factors) and climate variability [44]. |
DSCOVR LIS, RAVAN CERES | Monitoring changes in solar luminosity is important to ascertain whether natural variation in solar radiation has significantly contributed to recent climate change. Additionally, studying complex processes derived in various areas such as plant physiology, photosynthesis, evapotranspiration, absorption of photosynthetically active radiation, or solar light use efficiency is crucial [45]. |
OCO-3, MLS OMI, TROPOMI PACE, SAGE III SUOMI NPP MODIS, LIDAR | Particles in the atmosphere known as aerosols can generate either cooling or warming effect depending on their type in the system. Recent changes in atmospheric aerosol concentration have been identified through aerosol optical depth (AOD), derived from observations recorded by visible and infrared optical sensors aboard various satellites. Many other sensors monitor gases with significant environmental implications, such as CO2, NO2, CH4, O3, CO, and SO2 [46]. |
CloudSat CERES, PACE MODIS, VIRS | Climate forcing and cloud feedback adjust energy flux throughout the Earth’s system. Cloud dynamics research is fundamental to understanding climatic patterns in periods of climate variability and extreme events [47]. |
GPM, TOVS RAINCUBE AVHRR, GEOS | Water vapor is a gas with a high heat retention capacity, contributing approximately 50% to the current global greenhouse effect. Models predict that global warming will increase atmospheric specific humidity (resulting in positive feedback) and, in turn, strongly amplify warming [48]. |
Ref. | Study/Application |
---|---|
[7] | The variation in concentrations of hydrogen sulfide (H2S) and ammonia (NH3) in air was studied in a wastewater treatment system in Costa Rica using an air substance dispersion model. Similarity between predicted and observed values for H2S and NH3 was demonstrated, indicating no risk to health or the environment. |
[8] | A spatial model of weed distribution under climate change was developed; fifty-nine articles were selected for review, with maximum entropy (MaxEnt) and area under the curve (AUC) being the most popular validation methods and processes. |
[9] | Spatial autocorrelation was combined with artificial intelligence models to estimate the spatial distribution and risks of heavy metal contamination in agricultural soils. Spatial distribution models were developed using ANN models and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS). |
[49] | Creation of spatial models using maximum entropy (Maxent) methods. Identification of environmental variables controlling the distribution of greenhouse gas sources in Finland peatlands and prediction of the spatial distribution of these gases. |
[50] | A method for modeling extreme wind speed distributions using data collected from the Swiss meteorological service. This work applied spatial modeling of distribution parameters of this phenomenon throughout the country. |
[51] | Analysis of longwave radiation in Earth radiation budgets through topographic models and mesoscale studies of longwave solar radiation. It was determined that most existing satellite-based data capture algorithms are valid only for flat surfaces without considering topographic effects. |
[52] | A study aimed to parameterize the Bristow–Campbell model to estimate daily global solar radiation (DGSR) on the Tibetan Plateau and propose a method to rasterize it. The spatial pattern of DGSR distribution was estimated and analyzed by combining the solar radiation model (Bristow–Campbell) and a meteorological interpolation model called PRISM. |
[53] | A model was proposed to estimate the spatial distribution of average monthly global solar radiation for central Chile considering the continental zone from the Coquimbo region to the Araucanía region. |
[54] | Research based on climate change and spatial distribution of vegetation formations in Colombia. |
Author |
Method or
Algorithm |
Predictive Performance
(Better Performances) |
---|---|---|
[26] | RF | RF: MAE: 10.2 W/m2 MAE Conventional Methods: 21.3 W/m2 |
[63] | GBM | R2: 0.7 |
[64] | ANN, BRT, RFR, DNN and SVR | SVR: R2 = 0.91, RMSE = 9.6 W/m2 in sensitive heat, R2 = 0.89, RMSE = 26.32 W/m2 in latent heat. |
[65] | RTM-RF | RTM-RF MAE = 15.57 W/m2 R2 = 0.98 |
[64] | XGBoost, MLP, DNN, CNN RTM-RF | RTM-RF R2 = 0.95 Lulin; 0.94 Wuhan; 0.98 Xianghe RMSE = 9.56W/m2 Lulin; 10.05 W/m2 Wuhan; 13.27 W/m2 Xianghe |
[14] | DF, DNN, RF, XGB | RF: R2 = 0.73 DNN and XGB R2 => 0.70 DF: R2 = 0.66 |
[15] | CNN | CNN: nRMSE average = 8.37% MAPE = 10.90% |
[59] | k-means and A-CBR model | Average prediction = 93.23% |
[58] | ANN, RF, SVR, DNN | RF & DNN Superior prediction and better RMSE than ANN SVR |
[62] | MLP, LSTM, ConvLSTM | ConvLSTM & NN: RMSE = 3.62 °C/MAE = 2.85 °C MLP & NN: RMSE = 3.57 °C/MAE = 2.69 °C |
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García Pedreros, J.G.; Lagüela López, S.; Rodríguez Martín, M. Spatial Models of Solar and Terrestrial Radiation Budgets and Machine Learning: A Review. Remote Sens. 2024, 16, 2883. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs16162883
García Pedreros JG, Lagüela López S, Rodríguez Martín M. Spatial Models of Solar and Terrestrial Radiation Budgets and Machine Learning: A Review. Remote Sensing. 2024; 16(16):2883. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs16162883
Chicago/Turabian StyleGarcía Pedreros, Julián Guillermo, Susana Lagüela López, and Manuel Rodríguez Martín. 2024. "Spatial Models of Solar and Terrestrial Radiation Budgets and Machine Learning: A Review" Remote Sensing 16, no. 16: 2883. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs16162883