Dynamic Impact of the Southern Annular Mode on the Antarctic Ozone Hole Area

This study investigates the impact of dynamic variability of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) polar middle atmosphere on the ozone hole area. We analyze the influence of the southern annular mode (SAM) and planetary waves (PWs) on ozone depletion from 19 years (2005–2023) of aura microwave limb sounder (MLS) geopotential height (GPH) measurements. We employ empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis to decompose the GPH variability into distinct spatial patterns. EOF analysis reveals a strong relationship between the first EOF (representing the SAM) and the Antarctic ozone hole area (γ = 0.91). A significant negative lag correlation between the August principal component of the second EOF (PC2) and the September SAM index (γ = −0.76) suggests that lower stratospheric wave activity in August can precondition the polar vortex strength in September. The minor sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event in 2019 is an example of how strong wave activity can disrupt the polar vortex, leading to significant temperature anomalies and reduced ozone depletion. The coupling of PWs is evident in the lag correlation analysis between different altitudes. A “bottom-up” propagation of PWs from the lower stratosphere to the mesosphere and a potential “top-down” influence from the mesosphere to the lower stratosphere are observed with time lags of 21–30 days. These findings highlight the complex dynamics of PW propagation and their potential impact on the SAM and ozone layer. Further analysis of these correlations could improve one-month lead predictions of the SAM and the ozone hole area.