From Remotely Sensed Vegetation Onset to Sowing Dates: Aggregating Pixel-Level Detections into Village-Level Sowing Probabilities
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Material and Methods
2.1. Data
Region | Total | April | May | June | July | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dek1 | Dek2 | Dek3 | Dek1 | Dek2 | Dek3 | Dek1 | Dek2 | Dek3 | Dek1 | Dek2 | Dek3 | ||
Diffa | 600 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 170 | 450 | 600 | 600 |
Dosso | 1448 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 60 | 337 | 744 | 798 | 1073 | 1442 | 1448 | 1448 | 1448 |
Maradi | 2181 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 229 | 563 | 966 | 1391 | 1766 | 2091 | 2181 | 2181 |
Niamey | 34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 17 | 30 | 34 | 34 | 34 | 34 |
Tahoua | 1495 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 42 | 224 | 387 | 673 | 1078 | 1380 | 1493 | 1495 |
Tillabery | 1849 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 73 | 279 | 710 | 1184 | 1783 | 1830 | 1849 | 1849 |
Zinder | 2950 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 35 | 87 | 187 | 406 | 585 | 2077 | 2847 | 2932 | 2950 |
Niger a | 10557 | 7 | 7 | 35 | 106 | 768 | 2014 | 3284 | 4936 | 8350 | 10080 | 10537 | 10557 |
2.2. Village Buffer Mask
- Exclusion of the villages outside the agricultural and agro-pastoral zones as defined by FEWS NET’s Niger Livelihood Profiles since sowing is not expected to happen in those;
- Generation of buffers of radius r in {1, 2, 3, …, 8} km around the villages located in the agricultural and agro-pastoral zones;
- Individual village buffers are merged in order to create eight so called village buffer masks (VBM), each one corresponding to a different buffer size;
- Computing the area covered by the crop mask, by each of the VBMs and the intersections between the crop mask and the VBMs.
2.3. Onset Detections Derived from MODIS
2.4. Statistical Framework
2.5. Rainfall Estimate for Sowing Dates
3. Results
3.1. Village Buffer Mask
Variable | Buffer Size around Villages | |||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 km | 2 km | 3 km | 4 km | 5 km | 6 km | 7 km | 8 km | |||
%CM Covered by the VBM | 29.3 | 68.6 | 87.5 | 94.8 | 97.6 | 98.8 | 99.4 | 99.6 | ||
%VBM not Covered by the CM | 42.8 | 47.7 | 53.1 | 57.0 | 59.6 | 61.2 | 62.4 | 63.3 | ||
Difference | −13.5 | 20.8 | 34.5 | 37.9 | 38.0 | 37.6 | 37.0 | 36.3 |
3.2. Vegetation Onset Detections and Rainfall Thresholds
3.3. From Vegetation Onset to Sowing Dates
Parameter | 2008 | 2009 | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lag0 | Lag1 | Lag2 | RFE | Lag0 | Lag1 | Lag2 | RFE | |
β0 | 0.9106 | 0.6286 | 0.3836 | - | 1.2020 | 1.0316 | 0.7223 | - |
sd(β0) | 0.0280 | 0.0088 | 0.0057 | - | 0.0836 | 0.0394 | 0.0050 | - |
β1 | 0.2721 | 0.2375 | 0.2640 | - | 0.3787 | 0.4173 | 0.4246 | - |
sd(β1) | 0.0129 | 0.0030 | 0.0159 | - | 0.0260 | 0.0134 | 0.0030 | - |
R2 | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.81 | 0.74 | 0.86 | 0.83 | 0.79 | 0.73 |
RMASE | 869 | 860 | 876 | 1112 | 783 | 827 | 917 | 1132 |
R2-cross | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.81 | - | 0.85 | 0.81 | 0.77 | - |
RMASE-cross | 860 | 867 | 884 | - | 831 | 913 | 1023 | - |
4. Conclusions
Acknowledgments
Author Contributions
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Marinho, E.; Vancutsem, C.; Fasbender, D.; Kayitakire, F.; Pini, G.; Pekel, J.-F. From Remotely Sensed Vegetation Onset to Sowing Dates: Aggregating Pixel-Level Detections into Village-Level Sowing Probabilities. Remote Sens. 2014, 6, 10947-10965. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs61110947
Marinho E, Vancutsem C, Fasbender D, Kayitakire F, Pini G, Pekel J-F. From Remotely Sensed Vegetation Onset to Sowing Dates: Aggregating Pixel-Level Detections into Village-Level Sowing Probabilities. Remote Sensing. 2014; 6(11):10947-10965. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs61110947
Chicago/Turabian StyleMarinho, Eduardo, Christelle Vancutsem, Dominique Fasbender, François Kayitakire, Giancarlo Pini, and Jean-François Pekel. 2014. "From Remotely Sensed Vegetation Onset to Sowing Dates: Aggregating Pixel-Level Detections into Village-Level Sowing Probabilities" Remote Sensing 6, no. 11: 10947-10965. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs61110947