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Article

Assessment of the Effect of Climate Change on Wheat Storage in Northwestern Tunisia: Control of Rhyzopertha dominica by Aeration

by
Mohamed Nejib El Melki
1,*,
Jameel Mohammed Al-Khayri
2,*,
Mohammed Ibrahim Aldaej
2,
Mustafa Ibrahim Almaghasla
3,4,
Khaled El Moueddeb
1 and
Slaheddine Khlifi
5
1
Higher School of Engineers of Medjezel Bab, Department of Mechanical and AgroIndustrial Engineering, University of Jandouba, Jendouba 8189, Tunisia
2
Department of Plant Biotechnology, College of Agriculture and Food Sciences, King Faisal University, Al-Ahsa 31982, Saudi Arabia
3
Department of Arid Land Agriculture, College of Agriculture and Food Sciences, King Faisal University, Al-Ahsa 31982, Saudi Arabia
4
Plant Pests, and Diseases Unit, College of Agriculture and Food Sciences, King Faisal University, Al-Ahsa 31982, Saudi Arabia
5
Gestion Durable des Ressources en Eau et en Sol Ecole Supérieure des Ingénieurs de Medjez el Bab Université de Jendouba, Medjez El Bab 9070, Tunisia
*
Authors to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Agronomy 2023, 13(7), 1773; https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy13071773
Submission received: 30 May 2023 / Revised: 26 June 2023 / Accepted: 27 June 2023 / Published: 30 June 2023
(This article belongs to the Section Agricultural Biosystem and Biological Engineering)
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Abstract

:
This study focuses on the assessment of the impact of climate change on the efficiency of ambient air aeration and the dynamics of Rhyzopertha dominica, which is a major pest that infests wheat stored in Tunisia. To project future climate conditions for the period 2041–2070, two climate models, namely MPI-ESM1.2 and CNRMCM5.1, were used under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The study examined the historical and projected feasibility of aeration in six natural regions located in northwestern Tunisia, where wheat is the main crop, and investigated the potential consequences of climate change on the dynamics of R. dominica. Using a heat and mass transfer model in an unaerated wheat silo, the temperature and moisture distributions in the grain mass were used to predict the development, reproduction, and survival of R. dominica. The results revealed a decline in favorable aeration hours due to climate change, resulting in an average reduction of 25% across the six regions. This reduction in aerated hours could significantly affect the effectiveness of aeration as a means of pest control. The mean difference comparisons, based on Tukey’s honestly significant difference (HSD) test, revealed a significant effect of climate change on the developmental parameters of R. dominica for the period 2041–2070 compared to the period 1970–1997. According to the insect dynamic model, future climate scenarios are expected to induce changes in the development duration, reproduction, and survival rates of R. dominica. The model predicts a (i) 10–15% extension in the development duration, (ii) 20–30% decrease in reproduction, and (iii) 5–10% decrease in survival relative to the historical period. These results underscore the critical importance of implementing adaptive pest management strategies for stored wheat.

1. Introduction

Cereals, including maize, rice, and wheat, are essential commodities that together provide 42% of the world’s caloric needs for humans [1], especially in developing countries such as MENA countries. Tunisia imports 1.2 million metric tons of soft wheat annually to cover the production deficit. This situation has worsened in recent years due to precipitation irregularity, water scarcity, and an agricultural system focused on fruit trees and legumes, compounded by the impact of climate change. Indeed, many studies have predicted the negative impact of climate change on Africa’s cereal crop yield [2,3,4]. The impact of climate change on cereal crop productivity has revealed a decline of 13 to 18% in average yields per country in Africa, including Tunisia [5]. Several studies have assessed the impact of climate change on wheat production in Tunisia. Mougou et al. [6], using the DSSAT (decision support system for agrotechnology transfer), indicated that changes in temperature and rainfall patterns are likely to result in a significant reduction in wheat yield. Lhomme et al. [7] studied the impact of climate change on the yield of durum wheat in Tunisia for the period 2071–2100, showing the negative impact of climate change on the yield and quality of wheat. Ben Nouna et al. [8] assessed the impact of climate change on the development, yield, productivity, and water needs in the semi-arid conditions of Tunisia for the period 2020–2050. This study showed a 13% decline in yield by 2050. Faced with the progressive decline of cereal crop yields, Tunisia is adopting a strategy of strengthening the storage capacities (importing and local harvesting) of cereals to ensure a continuous supply to consumers. During storage, fungi, insects, mites, and rodents are the main sources of grain quality and quantity losses. The damage to stored wheat can be attributed to several factors, including insect infestation, which plays a crucial role [9]. Bashir [10] and Hill [11] have demonstrated that R. dominica is the most damaging pest for stored wheat in many regions of the world, mainly in hot climatic regions, such as northwestern Tunisia [11,12,13]. Larvae and adult insects have substantial impacts as they attack the entire grains, leading to significant economic losses. Grain storage predominantly revolves around cereal crops, specifically durum wheat and soft wheat, which are essential components of the Tunisian diet, accounting for 54% of the calories and 64% of the protein intake. R. dominica, a long-lived species, is the most frequently encountered insect during the storage of these crops. In grain silo storage conditions, including post-harvest temperatures exceeding 35 °C, this insect can survive for extended periods, with females capable of laying hundreds of eggs during the summer storage period [14]. Moreover, the lack of airtight sealing in storage silos and the repeated use of phosphine have contributed to the significant resistance of R. dominica to chemical treatments, thereby posing a significant threat to grain storage in Tunisia.
Aeration is the act of directing ambient air through a mass of grain to modify the microclimate within the stored grain. It is commonly employed as a pest control method in grain storage facilities across various temperate regions worldwide [15,16,17,18,19]. The primary goal of aeration is to maintain a safe level of grain temperature and humidity within storage structures, thereby reducing or eliminating the presence of harmful and dangerous organisms [20]. In Tunisia, durum and soft wheat harvest are harvested during the summer. The ambient temperature at harvest and storage times can benefit the rapid growth of insect populations. Therefore, insect and microorganism control practices should be followed to avoid quality and quantity losses [21,22]. Currently, aeration management is provided by electronic devices designed to activate aeration when temperatures fall below a threshold considered beneficial for the stored grain [23,24,25]. However, the effectiveness of ambient air aeration seems to be affected by the increase in air temperature resulting from the impact of climate change. Moses et al. [26] noted that climate change would create favorable conditions for grain spoilage caused by insects and microorganisms during storage. North Africa, especially Tunisia, has been recognized as a ’hotspot’ for climate change [27], making it one of the top ten countries worldwide to be highly susceptible to the adverse effects of climate change. In particular, global warming will reduce the time available for the aeration of stored cereals. According to these studies, stored cereals are at risk due to favorable conditions for the growth and multiplication of several biotic factors. The potential of using ambient air for aeration and the development of storage strategies in different regions of the world have been the subjects of several research studies. [28,29,30]. These studies have relied on the analysis of historical weather data to evaluate the potential of aeration. However, global climatic patterns are facing significant changes due to climate change [31,32]. Climate change effects are complex and rely solely on the analysis of historical weather data, which can lead to misleading conclusions and decisions. Therefore, evaluating the impact of climate change on the future potential of grain storage using ambient air has become critical for storage organizations, allowing them to adjust and update their previous control strategies. In addition to adjusting storage strategies, evaluating the impact of climate change on the future potential of ambient air aeration enables the development of robust mathematical relationships for multiple geographic regions. This facilitates the effective integration of climate change effects into stored grain management programs and enhances the performance of the software for the automatic activation and deactivation of ambient air aeration. The objectives of this study are to (1) analyze the historical and future potential of ambient air aeration in the northwestern regions of Tunisia for wheat storage, and (2) determine the impact of climate change on the dynamics of R. dominica, considering the 2041 to 2070 period.

2. Materials and Methods

2.1. Study Sites

Wheat is one of the main crops in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), with a cropped area reaching 28% [33]. Erenstien et al. [33] reported that more than half of the farms in the MENA region mostly crop cereals. The wheat-cropped area in this region is about 28 million ha, nearly 0.06 ha/capita [34]; wheat serves as a primary food source in this region. With total food imports of nearly 30%, the MENA region imports 58 million MT of cereal [35]. Cereals in Tunisia, located in the Southern Mediterranean region and the western side of the MENA region, are cropped on nearly 33% of the arable land, mobilizing 250,000 farms [36]; the national wheat production varies between 5 and 30 million MT/year depending on precipitations [37]. The national policy for cereals, considered a strategic sector of national food security, aims to achieve self-sufficiency in durum wheat by 2025 by improving yields, aiming to reach 2.5 t/ha in rainfed areas and 5.5 t/ha in irrigated areas, and increasing the irrigated areas of cereals to 100,000 ha/year [38]. The investigation area was selected as a representative study area of wheat in Tunisian territories. Thus, northwest Tunisia is the primary region for cultivating this crop. Considering administrative boundaries, the distribution of wheat production indicates that Beja, Kef, Siliana, and Jendouba provide 54% [36], and around 30% of the national cereal yield is provided by Bizerte, Zaghouan, Kairouan, Kasserine, and Mannouba, which are partially included in these natural regions of Tunisia (Figure 1). Cereal cropping and production can be considered as the main components of farming systems in these natural regions, which benefit from a storage capacity adapted to the average production.

2.2. Climate Change Projections

Given the increasing concern about climate change resulting from carbon-intensive human activities, the accurate prediction of future climate has become a global priority. Various general circulation models (GCMs) have been developed and are considered reliable tools for predicting global climate changes [39,40]. However, due to their coarse spatial resolution, which is typically greater than 1°, these models introduce uncertainties when making predictions at regional and local scales that can impact the assessment, mitigation, and strategic adaptation development. To address this issue, downscaling techniques are employed, such as the coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment (CORDEX). Considering the location of the investigation area corresponding to northwestern Tunisia, the European domain can be used to collect data, motivated mainly by its high spatial and temporal resolution, as well as the close location of the study area of this domain. Since this study focuses on assessing the impact of climate change on the storage ecosystem, particularly the potential of grain aeration by ambient air and insect dynamics during grain storage, two GCMs were combined with RCM1 (MPI-ESM1.2) and RCM2 (CNRMCM5.1), respectively. The selected GCMs for this purpose are: the Earth System Model (MPI-ESM1.2), developed by the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology [41], and the CNRMCM5.1, jointly developed by CNRM-GAME (Centre National de Recherche Météorologique Groupe d’Etude de l’Atmosphère Météorologique) and CERFACS (Centre Européen de Recherche et de Formation Avancée) [42]. Two representative concentration pathways (RCPs), RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, were considered as scenarios. The variables used in this study are near-surface air temperature (TAS) and near-surface relative humidity (HURS), which were obtained from the CORDEX portal (www.cordex.org/data-access/esgf/, accessed on 25 June 2023). To assess the future impact of climate change on ambient air aeration efficiency and R. dominica dynamics, six natural regions in northwest Tunisia were selected, i.e., the main regions of wheat production. The storage bin model operated on a high temporal resolution of 3 h, interpolated to 1 h, and the climate models MPI-ESM1.2 and CNRMCM5.1 were applied at a spatial resolution of 0.11°, resulting in 158 grid cells. The geographical limit coordinates (latitude, longitude) and the number of grid cells used for simulation in each region are presented in Table 1 and Figure 1.
The projection period for this study is from 2041 to 2070, representing medium-term climate projections. The systematic error corrections of the predicted TAS by both models were performed using the linear scaling technique [43]. The historical climate projections from the MPI-ESM1.2 and CNRMCM5.1 models were downloaded for the period from 1970 to 1997, considering the availability of observed data, with less than 10% missing observations within the six natural regions in northwestern Tunisia. The bias correction was applied at a monthly scale by comparing the observed and simulated historical data from the two projection models [44]. Subsequently, the bias correction was applied to the projected TAS for the 2041–2070 period. The observed climatic data were collected from the Meteorological National Institute (INM) for the period 1970–1997, which was considered as the reference period and used for the climate model correction for temperature within the study area.

2.3. Conceptual Flow Chart

To study the impact of climate change on the potential of ambient air aeration and the developmental dynamics of R. dominica, we utilized the adjusted historical data (1970–1997) predicted by the MPI-ESM1.2 and CNRMCM5.1 models. These data allowed us to assess the historical potential of ambient air aeration and the developmental dynamics of R. dominica. Subsequently, both models were employed in conjunction with the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios to examine the future potential of ambient air aeration and the developmental dynamics of R. dominica over a 30-year period (2041–2070). The objective was to calculate the average monthly accumulation of favorable aeration hours during the typical storage period (1 July to 31 December) for the 158 projection grid cells (Figure 2), according to the geographical coordinates (latitude, longitude). The 158 meshes were distributed over 6 natural regions covering northwestern Tunisia (Table 1, Figure 1).
For each grid cell in the northwestern regions of Tunisia and each month of the storage period (from 1 July to 31 December), the average monthly cumulative hours favorable for aeration (<15 ∘ C) was estimated; see Equation (1). We used the threshold of 120 h below 15 °C for grain aeration to align with previous studies conducted in different regions of the United States [21,29,45] as well as in the Balkan Peninsula regions [30].
Mean cumulative hours / grid cell = 1 30 ∑ k = 1 30 ∑ j = 1 n ∑ i = 1 24 ( T i , j , k < 15 C )
In this equation, K represents the number of years ranging from 1970 to 1997 for the historical data and from 2041 to 2070 for the projection data, j represents the number of days in the target month (n = 30 or 31), and i represents the hour of the day. The average cumulative hours favorable for aeration in each of the natural regions are calculated using Equation (2):
Mean cumulative hours / natural region = 1 p ∑ k = 1 p Mean cumulative hours / grid cell
where p is the number of grid cells per natural region (Table 1, Figure 1). For each region, the mean cumulative hours deemed favorable for aeration were used to analyze the impact of climate change on future aeration potential. Most stored product insects do not grow at temperatures below 15 °C [46,47,48].
The commonly used aeration airflow rates are approximately 0.12–0.36 m3/min/metric ton (MT). These airflow rates are independent of storage silo sizes [48]. Noyes et al. [48] indicated that at an airflow rate of 0.12 m3/min/MT, 120 h is typical to cool a grain silo below a specified temperature. For the six natural regions, and both models, considering projection scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, the feasibility of aeration was based on the cumulative of 120 h under 15 ∘ C on each date from 1 July to 31 December. Regarding the infeasibility of aeration with ambient air under these conditions and for the study area, the two-dimensional finite difference model without aeration developed by Iguaz et al. [49] was coupled with the insect dynamics model to predict the development duration, reproduction, and survival of R. dominica (Figure 2). Tukey’s honestly significant difference (HSD) test was applied at a significance level of 5%, comparing the average of each region, the climate model, and scenario to assess the impact of climate change on the developmental parameters of R. dominica.

2.4. Storage Bin Model

Heat and mass transfer models developed by Iguaz et al. [49] were applied to predict the distribution of temperature and moisture content in both radial and vertical directions. The finite difference method was used to solve the two-dimensional conduction and mass transfer equations, which incorporated boundary conditions. The cylindrical silo under investigation had a diameter of 10 m and a height of 18 m; it is the main silo type in these natural regions of Tunisia. The grain mass inside the silo was divided into 72 elements vertically and 40 elements radially. The grains were stored in the silo on July 1, with uniform temperature and humidity conditions of 35 ∘ C and 14%, respectively. The physical and thermal properties of wheat were based on work by Jia et al. [50]. The values of wheat bulk density ( kg / m 3 ), thermal conductivity ( W / m · K ), and specific heat ( J / kg · K ) were 863, 0.159, and 1757, respectively. To predict the average temperature of the grain layers in the silo, the heat and mass transfer equations in stored wheat without aeration, developed by Iguaz et al. [49], were programmed using Matlab 2015a. The numerical method, ode15s, with an absolute tolerance of 10 − 6 , was used to solve these equations. In addition to the corrected historical TAS and HURS predictions obtained from the MPI-ESM1.2 and CNRM-CM5.1 models, the hourly projected temperatures and humidity under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios were used as input data to calculate the temperature distribution among the different grain layers. The average temperatures of the grain layers were then used to calculate the development duration, reproduction, and survival of R. dominica (Equations (3)–(5)).

2.5. Insect Dynamic Model

In this work, the analysis of the population dynamics of R. dominica in the context of climate change will be based on the calculations of the development duration, reproduction duration, and survival parameters of R. dominica. Three age classes were considered: the egg, larva, and adult stages. According to Birch [14,51,52], Longstaff [53], the dynamics of R. dominica, including development duration, reproduction, and survival, are largely influenced by population density and grain storage conditions, temperature, and moisture content. Temperature effects on the development duration of R. dominica are described by Birch [54] Equation (3).
D D = a + b × e x p ( T ) + c × e x p ( − T )
where a, b, c are regression coefficients found after the optimization of Birch [54] data for R. dominica (Table 2). D D is the development duration in degree days and T is the average temperature of the grain layers in the storage bin in ∘ C. In Tunisia, grains are generally harvested and stored with a moisture content between 13 and 14%. The total number of eggs laid per female (FEgg), as a function of grain temperature, is described by a spline function (Equation (4)) derived from Birch [54] data at 14%.
F E g g s = e x p ( a + b T − 1 + c T − 2 ) ( T > 29 ) a 1 + b 1 T − 2 ( T < 29 )
where a, b, c, a 1 , and b 1 are regression parameters (Table 2).
Birch [54] reported that the survival of R. dominica eggs and larvae is influenced by the temperature at 14% grain moisture. The survival rate can be calculated using a logistic regression model (Equation (5)), based on Birch [54] data for R. dominica.
S E g g − L = e x p ( a + b × e x p ( T ) + c × e x p ( − T ) )

3. Results

3.1. Ambient Air Aeration Feasibility Analysis

Figure 3 shows the historical (1970–1997) and projected (2041–2070) monthly cumulative hours with air temperatures below 15 ∘ C for the northwestern regions of Tunisia. The NRMCM5.1 and MPI-ESM1.2 models indicate low cumulative hours, less than 10 h per month, during the summer storage period (July–September) for the six natural regions. The threshold of 120 h below 15 ∘ C could not be reached in all northwestern regions, with an average reduction of 4 h per month projected for the period 2041–2070, compared to the historical period (1970–1997). During the transition from autumn to winter, both projection models showed a gradual increase in the cumulative hours that were suitable for grain aeration. In October, the cumulative hours were less than 10, while in December, they ranged between 140 and 200 (Figure 3). Additionally, there was a significant decrease in the cumulative hours predicted by the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios compared to the historical predictions (Table 3). However, in the six natural regions of the northwest, it remained possible to exceed 120 h during the period from 1 October to 31 December (Figure 3). Moreover, there is more variability in the Khemir mountains, the High Valley of Medjerda, and the Middle Medjerda Valley, compared to other regions. This can be explained by the temperature levels in these three regions, the lower altitude (of the Medjerda Valley), and the proximity to the sea (Khemir).
The analysis of historical data and projections for the Mountainous Tell revealed that certain regions along the Algerian border, specifically Kalaat Snan in the Tell region, Ghardimaou in the High Medjerda region, and Tabarka in the Khemir region, are the warmest regions in northwestern Tunisia (Figure 1). These regions show monthly cumulative favorable hours for aeration of less than 5 h during the summer period. Additionally, these regions have a limited cooling capacity during the remaining storage period from October to December. Table 2 presents the monthly average difference between the historical predictions for the 1970–1997 period and those for projected predictions (2041–2070) obtained from the NRMCM5.1 and MPI-ESM1.2 models. The monthly average difference between the historical predictions of both models and their two projection scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) shows a similarity in the decrease of favorable hours for grain aeration compared to the historical period, except for the region of the Khemir mountains in October and December. Overall, climate change, particularly warming, leads to a decrease in the cooling potential of grain through ambient air. This decrease becomes more pronounced during the transition from fall to winter, with a 20-hour difference in December and November (Table 3).

3.2. Impact of Climate Change on R. dominica Dynamics

Table 4 shows the comparison of the monthly R. dominica dynamics, considering the climate change scenario and historical projection-based Tukey HSD test at a significance level of 5%. The results demonstrate the significant impact of climate change on the dynamics of R. dominica. In particular, in relation to the storage objectives, the average deviations between historical simulations (1970–1997) and projected climate data (1941–2070) for the three parameters of R. dominica’s dynamics show positive deviations for both climate models (MPI-ESM1.2 and CNRM-CM5.1), as well as in the selected scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). In addition, the results obtained from these comparisons showed significant effects of global warming on development duration, fecundity, and larva survival (p-value < 5%). By 2070, the RCP8.5 scenario reveals an average reduction of 123.05 in development duration, 159.50 in fecundity, and 17% in larva survival. Similarly, the RCP4.5 scenario demonstrates a decrease of 44.49 in development duration, 207.30 in fecundity, and 58% in larva survival.
According to Quarles [55], the population growth of R. dominica is strongly influenced by temperature and relative humidity conditions. The optimal temperature range for the development of R. dominica is between 20 and 35 °C, with a prolonged development duration observed outside this range [56]. Indeed, Flinn et al. [57,58] and Driscoll et al. [59] studied the effects of temperature and relative humidity on the population dynamics of R. dominica in grain storage and found that its development duration increased with a rise in temperature (up to 34 °C), and then decreased with a further temperature increase. The cumulative number of degree days above the threshold temperature within this range of 20 to 35 °C varied between 450 and 500 degree days [56]. Figure 4 illustrates the negative impact of climate warming projected from 2041 to 2070 on the development duration of R. dominica in the northwestern regions of Tunisia compared to historical data. Indeed, the historical projections from the NRMCM5.1 and MPI-ESM1.2 models demonstrate the positive effect of temperature on the development duration, with a cumulative number of degree days around 450 degree days for the six regions (Figure 4). However, the development duration, considering future projection of NRMCM5.1 and MPI-ESM1.2 models for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, indicate a delay in the development duration for the six regions of northwestern Tunisia, which could be explained by the expected increase in ambient air temperature for 2041–2070 (Figure 4).
According to Yang et al. [56], the optimum temperature for adult fecundity of R. dominica is 33° C, laying close to 478 eggs per adult. Fecundity drops rapidly for lower or higher temperatures [56]. The historical predictions of the NRMCM5.1 and MPI-ESM1.2 models for the period 1970–1997 reveal fecundity rates close to the optimum for the six regions of northwestern Tunisia. The average fecundity rate predicted, considering the historical MPI-ESM1.2 model, is 461.6 eggs per adult, whereas the NRMCM5.1 model shows an average of 500.83 eggs per adult (Figure 5). However, future projections indicate average fertility rates below 330, except for the Dorsal northwestern side region, where the average fecundity reaches 340, as indicated by the MPI-ESM1.2 model under the RCP4.5 scenario.
At a grain moisture content of 14%, the optimal temperature range for the survival of R. dominica larvae and eggs is 25 to 34 °C, with a maximum survival rate of 75%. Historical predictions show typical survival conditions for R. dominica larvae and eggs, with average survival rates of 75% and 76.3%, respectively, obtained by the MPI-ESM1.2 and NRMCM5.1 models in the northwestern regions of Tunisia (Figure 6). However, future projections for the period 2041–2070 indicate a decline in larval survival rates for R. dominica, with average rates of 6.2% and 5% predicted by the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, for the MPI-ESM1.2 and NRMCM5.1 models.

4. Discussion

Two climate models were used for historical data (1970–1997) and future projections (2041–2070) of air temperature and humidity. The corrected temperature was used to study the feasibility of ambient air aeration in the northwestern regions of Tunisia during the typical storage period (July–December). The threshold of 120 h below 15 ∘ C is widely used across the world, such as in the United States [21,29,45] and Europe [30], to assess the feasibility of ambient air aeration and insect dynamics for different grain storage dates, as well as the appropriate dosage and timing of chemical control. These studies are based on the analysis of historical climate data and do not take into account future climate warming. However, it is important to note that climate warming could have an impact on the number of available hours for aeration and the developmental cycles of insects. As temperatures increase, the number of hours below the desired threshold for effective aeration decreases, thus limiting the opportunities for cooling stored grains. Therefore, it is crucial to consider the implications of climate change when evaluating the feasibility of aeration strategies and insect dynamics in grain storage.
The analysis of historical data obtained from the MPI-ESM1.2 and NRMCM5.1 models reveals a limited capacity for air cooling during the summer and in September. This indicates that wheat stored during the summer and September is more vulnerable to R. dominica infestation, which justifies the repeated use of chemical control products by Tunisian stockers. Furthermore, the results based on historical data show the huge impact of temperature on the development of R. dominica, with a rate of development duration, survival, and fecundity exceeding 447 degree days, 461 egg/female, and 74%, respectively. The MPI-ESM and NRMCM5.1 models, considering the RC4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, indicate a significant decline in the development parameters of R. dominica. These results indicate that the development duration, larva survival, and fecundity are outside the optimal temperature range for the six northwestern regions of Tunisia. These findings are consistent with the studies conducted by Burks et al. [60], which showed that high temperatures hurt the population growth of R. dominica. Fields [47], Mason and Strait [61] used the terms “suboptimal”, “optimal”, and “supraoptimal” to refer to temperatures above, temperatures below, and the ideal temperature range for R. dominica development. According to this classification, climate projections for the period 2041–2070 in both MPI-ESM and NRMCM5.1 models indicate that the temperatures of stored grains in the northwestern regions of Tunisia will fall between the optimal and supra-optimal or moderately high ranges.
According to Fields [47], these temperatures are much less lethal but can still inhibit population growth and protect stored commodities. By 2100, extreme climatic events are likely to increase the reliability of heat treatment for the insect control of stored commodities in the northwestern regions of Tunisia during the summer and fall. Future increases in temperature in the northwestern regions of Tunisia could lead to a decrease in the development, survival, and fertility parameters of grain storage insects during the summer and September. During this period, heat treatment can be an effective solution given the expected temperature difference between the typical storage temperature (50 ∘ C) and a grain temperature of 10 to 12 ∘ C. Another possible alternative for the northwestern regions of Tunisia would be to harness solar radiation, considering the abundance of available solar energy with an average value exceeding 6 kWh/m2/day, to cool the grains to a temperature below 15 ∘ C. A third option would be to develop a chemical control strategy, taking into account the temperature increase caused by climate change.
Heat treatments, insecticide use, ambient air aeration, and air conditioning aeration are considered possible options, each presenting specific advantages and limitations. The effectiveness of implementing the options mentioned earlier is closely related to the initial density of the R. dominica population in newly harvested cereal or wheat fields. In India, the use of satellite images and remote sensing has allowed for the monitoring of pests, guiding crop protection, and evaluating the damages caused by insects [62]. This kind of monitoring, employing satellite or hyperspectral images, enables the differentiation of harvested grains from infected fields and those from non-infected sites. Such a practice can contribute to controlling the effects of R. dominica on wheat storage. Additionally, remote sensing has been employed to identify optimal agricultural sites for producing pathogen-free wheat. In the case of R. dominica, the detection of maximum flight distance, orientation, and flight conditions (temperature and humidity) primarily relies on the use of insect traps, which can assist in planning wheat harvest and preventing significant infection [63]. The economic impact of damage risk caused by insect pests on stored grains and the costs associated with these options influence the profit margins of grain storage. An analysis of the risks associated with insect pests and the profit margins of the different options can help the managers of storage structures to rank the different options and find the best balance between economic objectives and risk management. This will improve decision-making and maximize profits while minimizing the risks associated with insect pests.

5. Conclusions

The expected climate change impacts resulting from increased greenhouse gases and human emissions are likely to reduce the number of favorable aeration hours (for ambient air aeration for stored grains) by 2070 in the six regions of northwestern Tunisia. This reduction is particularly significant during the summer and September, with an accumulation of hours exceeding 120 h for the remaining storage period (October–December), resulting in an average decrease of 25% across the six regions. These findings indicate that conditions for effectively managing pest insects in wheat storage may be less favorable in the medium term, around the year 2070. Furthermore, the mean comparison highlights the beneficial impact of future climate warming on wheat storage in the northwestern regions of Tunisia. The higher temperatures, as one of the main impacts of climate change, slow down the development duration of R. dominica, leading to reduced rates of development, survival, and fecundity. However, complete suppression of pest insects is not guaranteed. During the summer and in September, the projected increase in temperature can be utilized as a valuable heat treatment tool to effectively slow down the dynamics of R. dominica, thereby optimizing the use of phosphine. The integration of climate change and its impact on harvest dates, grain quality, and the grain storage ecosystem in wheat storage management programs, will contribute to conducting comprehensive analyses of associated risks and costs, which is of paramount importance. By implementing these measures, it becomes possible to enhance cereal storage management, mitigate losses caused by pest insects, and effectively address the challenges posed by climate change. The results of this study were strongly influenced by the specific weather patterns in the northwestern regions of Tunisia and the typical storage period (July–December). Therefore, it is recommended that future studies incorporate data from different regions around the world, considering various grain storage dates and different products, in order to better understand the impacts of climate change on the cereal storage sector.

Author Contributions

M.N.E.M., J.M.A.-K. and S.K.: idea development, data collection, analysis, original manuscript writing, revision, and editing. M.I.A. (Mohammed Ibrahim Aldaej), M.I.A. (Mustafa Ibrahim Almaghasla) and K.E.M.: manuscript preparation, revision, and editing. J.M.A.-K., S.K. and K.E.M.: supervision, data analysis, revision, and editing. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.

Funding

The authors extend their appreciation to the Deanship of Scientific Research, Vice Presidency for Graduate Studies and Scientific Research, King Faisal University, Saudi Arabia, for supporting this work [project no. GRANT3741].

Institutional Review Board Statement

Not applicable.

Data Availability Statement

Not applicable.

Acknowledgments

The authors extend their appreciation to the Deanship of Scientific Research, Vice Presidency for Graduate Studies and Scientific Research, King Faisal University, Saudi Arabia They also wish to express their gratitude to the National Meteorological Institute (INM) of Tunisia for its valuable support.

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

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Agronomy 13 01773 g001 550
Figure 1. Natural regions of northwestern Tunisia used as the study area.
Figure 1. Natural regions of northwestern Tunisia used as the study area.
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Figure 2. Conceptual flowchart illustrating the methodology adopted for the evaluation of the historical and future potential of ambient air aeration and the dynamics of R. dominica at the horizon (2041–2070).
Figure 2. Conceptual flowchart illustrating the methodology adopted for the evaluation of the historical and future potential of ambient air aeration and the dynamics of R. dominica at the horizon (2041–2070).
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Figure 3. Historical data and projections of cumulative hours with temperatures below 15 ∘ C, as predicted by the NRMCM5.1 and MPI-ESM1.2 models, for the northwestern regions of Tunisia from 1 July to 31 December.
Figure 3. Historical data and projections of cumulative hours with temperatures below 15 ∘ C, as predicted by the NRMCM5.1 and MPI-ESM1.2 models, for the northwestern regions of Tunisia from 1 July to 31 December.
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Figure 4. Development duration as a function of grain temperature for R. dominica; historical and projected data by models MPI-ESM and NRMCM5.1 for the northwestern regions of Tunisia.
Figure 4. Development duration as a function of grain temperature for R. dominica; historical and projected data by models MPI-ESM and NRMCM5.1 for the northwestern regions of Tunisia.
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Figure 5. Adult fecundity as a function of grain temperature for R. dominica, considering historical and projected climate data, using models MPI-ESM and NRMCM5.1 for the northwestern regions of Tunisia.
Figure 5. Adult fecundity as a function of grain temperature for R. dominica, considering historical and projected climate data, using models MPI-ESM and NRMCM5.1 for the northwestern regions of Tunisia.
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Figure 6. Survival larvae and eggs as functions of the grain temperature of R. dominica for historical and future projections using models MPI-ESM and NRMCM5.1 in the northwestern regions of Tunisia.
Figure 6. Survival larvae and eggs as functions of the grain temperature of R. dominica for historical and future projections using models MPI-ESM and NRMCM5.1 in the northwestern regions of Tunisia.
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Table
Table 1. Main natural characteristics of the natural regions of northwestern Tunisia.
Table 1. Main natural characteristics of the natural regions of northwestern Tunisia.
Natural RegionArea (km²)LatitudeLongitudeNumber of Cells for Climate Projection
Khemir mountains2984.436.54 to 37.058.11 to 9.0721
Mogods mountain range2210.336.76 to 37.219.14 to 9.5713
Mountainous Tell8384.635.92 to 36.658.71 to 10.7360
High Medjerda999.536.6 to 36.438.43 to 8.967
Middle Medjerda456.736.64 to 36.759.47 to 9.905
Dorsale—northwestern side7606.837.27 to 35.0710.79 to 8.0252
Table
Table 2. Parameter values and correlation coefficients for equations describing the population dynamics of R. dominica as a function of temperature on wheat grains.
Table 2. Parameter values and correlation coefficients for equations describing the population dynamics of R. dominica as a function of temperature on wheat grains.
Dynamic ParameterEquationParameter R 2 Source
DD a = 374.7736
(3) b = 2.4971 × 10 − 12 0.97Birch [54]
c = 7.6348 × 10 9
FEggs a = − 62.81
b = − 4405.15
(4) c = − 70149.70 0.99Birch [54]
a 1 = 452.87
b 1 = − 135328.45
S Egg - L a = − 2.7639 × 10 − 1
(5) b = − 4.2915 × 10 − 17 0.98Birch [54]
c = − 1.747 × 10 9
Table
Table 3. Monthly average difference of the cooling potential by ambient air between historical (1970–1997) and projected (2041–2070) data obtained from the NRMCM5.1 and MPI-ESM1.2 models (h).
Table 3. Monthly average difference of the cooling potential by ambient air between historical (1970–1997) and projected (2041–2070) data obtained from the NRMCM5.1 and MPI-ESM1.2 models (h).
Natural RegionOctoberNovemberDecember
Khemir mountains9.0018.1531.36
Mogods mountain range12.1717.9137.76
Mountainous Tell11.2417.2937.64
High Medjerda12.6817.2536.85
Middle Medjerda11.1117.7037.69
Dorsale—northern side12.1217.6937.9
Table
Table 4. Dynamic parameters of R. dominica: comparisons between the historical period (1970–1997) and projection period (2041–2070) of the climate model, according to Tukey’s HSD, at a 5% significance level.
Table 4. Dynamic parameters of R. dominica: comparisons between the historical period (1970–1997) and projection period (2041–2070) of the climate model, according to Tukey’s HSD, at a 5% significance level.
ModelComparisonDDFEggsSEggL
MPI-ESM1.2(Historical-RCP8.5)149.53 ***194.71 **0.16 *
(Historical-RCP4.5)55.42 ***252.06 **0.30 *
CNRM-CM5.1(Historical-RCP8.5)96.58 ***124.29 ***0.18 ***
(Historical-RCP4.5)33.57 ***162.54 ***0.14 ***
Average difference with *: significant, **: highly significant, ***: very highly significant.
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El Melki, M.N.; Al-Khayri, J.M.; Aldaej, M.I.; Almaghasla, M.I.; El Moueddeb, K.; Khlifi, S. Assessment of the Effect of Climate Change on Wheat Storage in Northwestern Tunisia: Control of Rhyzopertha dominica by Aeration. Agronomy 2023, 13, 1773. https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy13071773

AMA Style

El Melki MN, Al-Khayri JM, Aldaej MI, Almaghasla MI, El Moueddeb K, Khlifi S. Assessment of the Effect of Climate Change on Wheat Storage in Northwestern Tunisia: Control of Rhyzopertha dominica by Aeration. Agronomy. 2023; 13(7):1773. https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy13071773

Chicago/Turabian Style

El Melki, Mohamed Nejib, Jameel Mohammed Al-Khayri, Mohammed Ibrahim Aldaej, Mustafa Ibrahim Almaghasla, Khaled El Moueddeb, and Slaheddine Khlifi. 2023. "Assessment of the Effect of Climate Change on Wheat Storage in Northwestern Tunisia: Control of Rhyzopertha dominica by Aeration" Agronomy 13, no. 7: 1773. https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy13071773

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