Assessment of Heat Risk of Winter Wheat Cropping Based on Long-Term Meteorological Data

Round 1

Reviewer 1 Report

This study's results offer valuable insights for winter wheat cropping strategies in the Huaibei Plain, China, or similar climate and cropping regions. By quantifying the pattern and characteristics of heat stress during the wheat reproductive stage, the research contributes to optimizing crop management strategies and enhancing resilience in the face of increasing heat events associated with global climate change. However, there are some issues that should be addressed before further consideration.

1. Line 30-32. Check the sentence. Wheat the planting area???

2. Line 34-35. IPCC 2022 was not cited.

3. Line 36. The hot weather w?

4. Line 36-39. I think soil waterlogging might be the major stress in Anhui Province rather than high temperature stress. Author might need to investigate how waterlogging occurrence changes during the historical periods.

See Liu et al., 2023. this could be a good reference to cite here.

Liu, K., Harrison, M.T., Yan, H. et al. Silver lining to a climate crisis in multiple prospects for alleviating crop waterlogging under future climates. Nat Commun 14, 765 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-36129-4

5. Line 43-48. Please check the grammar and revise these sentences.

6. Line 75-76. High temperature frequently occurs during this period and signif-icantly impacts wheat grain filling [16]. This reference did not say “High temperature frequently occurs during grain-filling period”!

7. Line 107-123. These classifications have large uncertainties. Not all regions grow one variety with the same sowing date. Once the sowing and flowering periods vary, the results here are meaningless.

8. Line 267-289. These descriptions have nothing to do with your current results!

 

English must be improved by native speakers. There are many spelling errors and grammatical errors!!

Author Response

Reviewer: 1

Comments and Suggestions for Authors

This study's results offer valuable insights for winter wheat cropping strategies in the Huaibei Plain, China, or similar climate and cropping regions. By quantifying the pattern and characteristics of heat stress during the wheat reproductive stage, the research contributes to optimizing crop management strategies and enhancing resilience in the face of increasing heat events associated with global climate change. However, there are some issues that should be addressed before further consideration.

Response: Thank you very much for giving us this opportunity to revise and improve our current manuscript. On behalf of all my co-authors, I would like to thank you very much for valuable suggestions for improving our manuscript.

Your suggestions made towards our manuscript helped to enhance the overall technical quality of our article indeed. We considered all your comments very carefully, and the suggested revisions are amended in the revised version accordingly. The changes made in the revised text are highlighted as the track-change mode, and English grammar is sincerely improved by consulting native English speakers. All the revised points are highlighted. Our responses to your comments are given below as point by point:

 

1. Line 30-32. Check the sentence. Wheat the planting area???

Response: We have checked the sentence and modified English errors. (See line 34-35)

 

2. Line 34-35. IPCC 2022 was not cited.

Response: Thank you for your suggestions. Done as suggested. (See line 39-40)

 

3. Line 36. The hot weather w?

Response: We have checked the sentence and modified the typos errors. (See line 40)

 

4. Line 36-39. I think soil waterlogging might be the major stress in Anhui Province rather than high temperature stress. Author might need to investigate how waterlogging occurrence changes during the historical periods.

See Liu et al., 2023. this could be a good reference to cite here.

Liu, K., Harrison, M.T., Yan, H. et al. Silver lining to a climate crisis in multiple prospects for alleviating crop waterlogging under future climates. Nat Commun 14, 765 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-36129-4

Response: The originality of the paper is very good from you recommended. We have read and studied it carefully. In this paper, in Exp5, field experiments were conducted in 2003–2004 and 2005–2006 at Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China, and the crop studied is barley. Hangzhou has a subtropical monsoon climate with more precipitation throughout the year. The Huaibei Plain area studied belongs to the north of Anhui Province, which has a temperate monsoon climate. The average annual precipitation was 806~1002 mm, and the wheat growing season was from October to May of the next year, and the precipitation was 242~373mm (2000-2020). The period studied in this paper is the late growth period of wheat (flowering to maturity), the common abiotic stress is high temperature after flowering, and there is no waterlogging disaster in this period. In our future studies, we will conduct a more systematic study on abiotic stress (e.g. drought, low temperature and cold damage, high temperature, etc.) in the whole growth period of wheat in this region. The more details of rainfall are provided in Table S1and Table S2 in the attachment.

 

5. Line 43-48. Please check the grammar and revise these sentences.

Response: We have checked the manuscript and modified all typos and English errors. (See line 45-55)

 

6. Line 75-76. High temperature frequently occurs during this period and significantly impacts wheat grain filling [16]. This reference did not say “High temperature frequently occurs during grain-filling period”!

Response: Thank you for your suggestions. We have changed the reference. (See line 84-85)

 

7. Line 107-123. These classifications have large uncertainties. Not all regions grow one variety with the same sowing date. Once the sowing and flowering periods vary, the results here are meaningless.

Response: We totally agree with your statements. Six sites in the Huaibei Plain were selected for this study, and there were some differences in the flowering dates of wheat in the six sites. In our study, a three-year field study was conducted at the experimental field of Mengcheng County (116°56′′E, 33°17′N), Bozhou City and Suzhou (117°10′E, 33°69′N), Anhui Province, China. Twenty wheat varieties, were used in the study. These are commercially cultivated varieties in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain. The growth period was recorded of 20 wheat varieties in three years, and the flowering period was different from 0 to 6 days. The timeframe is consistent of agronomic practices. The division of the phases in this study was based on the results of the three-year field study. In future research, we will plant more varieties in more areas to study the impact of climate on wheat growth and development. The more details of varieties are provided in Table S3 in the attachment.

 

8. Line 267-289. These descriptions have nothing to do with your current results!

Response: We have modified this part of the discussion. (See line 278-340)

 

Author Response File: Author Response.pdf

Reviewer 2 Report

The ms. “Assessment of heat risk of winter wheat cropping based on long-term meteorological data” (Ms. Ref. No. agronomy-2513365-v1) presents original research regarding the risk of increasing temperature during the reproductive period of wheat based on a 63-year daily temperature data, including from 6 stations in Anhui province (China). The study investigates the frequency and intensity of high temperature in the region based on meteorological records combined in relationship with crop phenology, assessing also the probability of heat stress during different developmental phases i.e. from anthesis to maturity of winter wheat.

There is a lot of work involved, the time frame covered is very large, creating the premises for a solid outcome. Therefore, the ms. is interesting and has potential for publication.

The topic falls within the aims and scopes of the Agronomy journal. Originality = good.

The ms. is adequately structured and carefully written and may be considered for publication after proper revision. However, there are some issues that need to be addressed to improve the presentation of the results.

 

Major issues:

1.     The originality of the study should be pointed out better, against the existing literature landscape on the same topic. There are several papers dealing with the influence of the meteorological conditions on the productivity of main crops conducted during long periods (such as a nine year study on the oil productivity of seven linseed varieties as affected by weather conditions, which did not assess the heat stress). Please revise.

2.     When discussing the development stages, I suggest referring to the BBCH scale.

3.     Please present the genotype(s) used in the study.

4.     Were the agronomic practices applied equal for the investigated timeframe?

5.     Please point out the limitations of the study. In my opinion, a possible limitation which could be considered for future studies could be the investigation of the water regime (from both rainfall and irrigation).

 

Minor issues: 

1.     Please give the Latin name of the investigated species.

2.     Please write all the Latin words (including scientific names of the species or words such as per) with Italics. Please revise throughout the ms.

3.     Line 260: Tmax d (I suppose d should be deleted).

4.     Please check the manuscript for typos and English errors.

 

Given the completed score sheet and the comments above, after careful evaluation, the paper “Assessment of heat risk of winter wheat cropping based on long-term meteorological data” (Ms. Ref. No. agronomy-2513365-v1) needs Major Revision according to comments before being considered for publication in Agronomy journal.

English = fine (minor language and typos revisions).

Author Response

Reviewer: 2

Comments on the Quality of English Language

English must be improved by native speakers. There are many spelling errors and grammatical errors!!

 

Comments and Suggestions for Authors

The Ms. “Assessment of heat risk of winter wheat cropping based on long-term meteorological data” (Ms. Ref. No. agronomy-2513365-v1) presents original research regarding the risk of increasing temperature during the reproductive period of wheat based on a 63-year daily temperature data, including from 6 stations in Anhui province (China). The study investigates the frequency and intensity of high temperature in the region based on meteorological records combined in relationship with crop phenology, assessing also the probability of heat stress during different developmental phases i.e. from anthesis to maturity of winter wheat.

 

There is a lot of work involved, the time frame covered is very large, creating the premises for a solid outcome. Therefore, the Ms. is interesting and has potential for publication.

 

The topic falls within the aims and scopes of the Agronomy journal. Originality = good.

The Ms. is adequately structured and carefully written and may be considered for publication after proper revision. However, there are some issues that need to be addressed to improve the presentation of the results.

Response: Thank you very much for giving us this opportunity to revise and improve our current manuscript. On behalf of all my co-authors, I would like to thank you very much for your precious time and meticulous suggestions to improve our manuscript. Your comprehensive suggestions made towards our manuscript indeed helped to enhance the overall technical quality of our article. We considered all your comments very carefully, and suggested revisions are amended in the revised manuscript in track-change mode thoroughly. Our responses to all your comments are given below shown by point by point and indicated which pages and lines changed in the revised version with track change in the following text:

 

Major issues:

 

1. The originality of the study should be pointed out better, against the existing literature landscape on the same topic. There are several papers dealing with the influence of the meteorological conditions on the productivity of main crops conducted during long periods (such as a nine years study on the oil productivity of seven linseed varieties as affected by weather conditions, which did not assess the heat stress). Please revise.

Response: ①The impacts of increasing growing-season mean temperature and heat stress events from the compounding impacts of temperatures and local crop phenology on crop production is yet to be resolved. Therefore, it is necessary to quantify the characteristics of heat stress with reference to wheat grain-filling, to provide guidelines for wheat-cropping systems.

②The timeframe is consistent of agronomic practices. The division of the phases in this study was based on the results of the three-year field study. The more details of varieties are provided in Table S3 in the attachment.

 

2. When discussing the development stages, I suggest referring to the BBCH scale.

Response: Thank you for your suggestions. We have modified the discussion and referring to the BBCH scale. (See line 278-340)

 

3. Please present the genotype(s) used in the study.

Response: A three-year field study was conducted at the experimental field of Mengcheng County (116°56′′E, 33°17′N), Bozhou City and Suzhou (117°10′E, 33°69′N), Anhui Province, China. Twenty wheat varieties, were used in the study. These are commercially cultivated varieties in the south of Huang-Huai-Hai Plain. The growth period was recorded of 20 wheat varieties in three years, and the flowering period was different 0 to 6 days. In future research, we will plant more varieties in more areas to study the impact of climate on wheat growth and development. The more details of varieties are provided in Table S3 in the attachment.

 

4. Were the agronomic practices applied equal for the investigated timeframe?

Response: The timeframe is consistent of agronomic practices. The division of the phases in this study was based on the results of the three-year field study. The more details of varieties are provided in Table S3 in the attachment.

 

5. Please point out the limitations of the study. In my opinion, a possible limitation which could be considered for future studies could be the investigation of the water regime (from both rainfall and irrigation).

Response: In our manuscripts, by quantifying the pattern and characteristics of heat stress during the wheat reproductive stage, the research contributes to optimizing crop management strategies and enhancing resilience in the face of increasing heat events associated with global climate change. This study's results offer valuable insights for winter wheat cropping strategies in the Huaibei Plain, China, or similar climate and cropping regions. However, there are some limitations, as mentioned in the discussion. Although we analyzed the possible effects of high temperatures on the yield of wheat after flowering, the effect of high temperatures on yield during the vegetative period should not be overlooked, because the effects of heat are superimposed on the vegetative period and reproductive stage. This was ignored in the present study, even though high temperatures do not occur frequently during vegetative growth periods. In our future studies, we will conduct a more systematic study on abiotic stress (e.g. drought, low temperature and cold damage, high temperature, etc.) in the whole growth period of wheat in this region.

 

Minor issues:

1. Please give the Latin name of the investigated species.

Response: Done as suggested. (See line 13)

 

2. Please write all the Latin words (including scientific names of the species or words such as per) with Italics. Please revise throughout the Ms.

Response: Done as suggested.

 

3. Line 260: Tmax d (I suppose d should be deleted).

Response: Done as suggested. (See line 271)

 

4. Please check the manuscript for typos and English errors.

Response: We have checked the manuscript and modified all typos and English errors.

 

Given the completed score sheet and the comments above, after careful evaluation, the paper “Assessment of heat risk of winter wheat cropping based on long-term meteorological data” (Ms. Ref. No. agronomy-2513365-v1) needs Major Revision according to comments before being considered for publication in Agronomy journal.

 

Comments on the Quality of English Language

English = fine (minor language and typos revisions).

Author Response File: Author Response.pdf

Round 2

Reviewer 1 Report

I did not see any major revisions in the revised manuscript.

Point 4, 7 & 8.

English is very difficult to understand.

Author Response

4. Line 36-39. I think soil waterlogging might be the major stress in Anhui Province rather than high temperature stress. Author might need to investigate how waterlogging occurrence changes during the historical periods.

See Liu et al., 2023. this could be a good reference to cite here.

Liu, K., Harrison, M.T., Yan, H. et al. Silver lining to a climate crisis in multiple prospects for alleviating crop waterlogging under future climates. Nat Commun 14, 765 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-36129-4

Response: We have read and studied the mentioned article carefully. In this paper, in Exp5, field experiments were conducted in 2003–2004 and 2005–2006 at Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China, and the crop studied is barley. Hangzhou has a subtropical monsoon climate with more precipitation throughout the year. In our study, Huaibei Plain area studied belongs to North Anhui Province, which has a temperate monsoon climate. In Anhui Province, three major types of agricultural zones are formed by two river system i.e. Huai river and Yantze river from north to south, they are North Anhui for dryland farming for wheat/maize rotation while the middle region for wheat/rice rotation and south region for rice cropping etc. The average annual precipitation in North Anhui (Huaibei Plain) was 806~1002 mm, of which, the precipitation in wheat season from October to May next year was 242~373mm (2000-2020). The period studied in this paper is the late growth period of wheat (flowering to maturity), the common abiotic stress is high temperature after flowering, and there is no waterlogging disaster in this period. Wang et al. [1] found that the climate in Huaibei Plain had a significant warming trend, and high temperature stress became the main abiotic stress in wheat growth period. Shi et al. [2] found that high temperature stress became the main abiotic stress in winter wheat growth period. What’s more, the rainfall during the wheat growing season in the Huaibei Plain could also prove that the area is not prone to waterlogging. The more details of rainfall are provided in Table S1, Table S2 and Table S2 in the attachment.

[1] Wang, S.; Tian, H.; Dang, X.; Zhang, X. Research on the climate suitability and agricultural climate yields assessment of winter wheat in Huaibei Plain of Anhui Province. Climate Change Research. 2017, 13, 253-261. (in Chinese)

[2] Shi X. L.; Shi, W. J. Impacts of extreme high temperature on winter wheat yield in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain. Journal of Ecology and rural Environment. 2016, 32, 259-269. (in Chinese)

 

7. Line 107-123. These classifications have large uncertainties. Not all regions grow one variety with the same sowing date. Once the sowing and flowering periods vary, the results here are meaningless.

Response: We agreed. Huaibei Plain area studied belongs to North Anhui Province, which has a temperate monsoon climate. Six sites with similar climate, including temperature and precipitation. In North Anhui cropping for dryland farming for wheat/maize rotation. It is relatively stable over years, the varieties cultivated in this area have similar phenological stages, and the flowering dates differ by no more than 7 days, for example, the wheat will be fully ripe and harvested on June 1^st. Wang et al. [3] analyzed the meteorological data from Huaibei Plain in Anhui Province, the flowering stage of wheat was in late April, and the maturity stage was in late May. Shan et al. [4] found that wheat blossoms around April 20 and ripen at the end of May in the Huaibei Plain. Wang et al. [5] pointed out that corn was sown in mid-June and harvested in late September and early October.

In a previous study from our lab, a three-year field study was conducted at the experimental field of Mengcheng County (116°56′′E, 33°17′N), Bozhou City and Suzhou (117°10′E, 33°69′N), Anhui Province, China. Twenty wheat varieties, were used in the study. These are commercially cultivated varieties in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain. The growth period was recorded of 20 wheat varieties in three years, wheat anthesis in late April and ripens in late May, and the flowering period was different from 0 to 6 days. The timeframe is consistent of agronomic practices. The more details of varieties are provided in Table S4 in the attachment.

[3] Wang, S.; Tian, H.; Dang, X.; Zhang, X. Research on the climate suitability and agricultural climate yields assessment of winter wheat in Huaibei Plain of Anhui Province. Climate Change Research. 2017, 13, 253-261. (in Chinese)

[4] Shan, F. S.; Wang, L.; Liu, X. M.; Liu, X. L.; Jia, Y. S.; Gao, B.; Ge, J. Screening for new wheat varieties in Mengcheng County in 2017-2018. Modern Agricultural Science and Technology. 2018, 16, 37-40. (in Chinese)

[5] Wang, Z.; Sun, W.; Liu, X.; Li, Y.; Collins, B.; Ullah, N., Song, Y. Analysis on heat characteristics for summer maize cropping in a semi-arid region. Agronomy-Basel. 2022, 12.1435

8. Line 267-289. These descriptions have nothing to do with your current results!

Response: We have removed irrelevant content, and added important discussion content, and revised the full text discussion. (See line 304-392)

 

English is very difficult to understand.

Response: We have checked the manuscript and modified all typos and English errors.

Reviewer 2 Report

The authors of the revised submission “Assessment of heat risk of winter wheat cropping based on long-term meteorological data” (Ms. Ref. No. agronomy-2513365-v2) have addressed all the reviewers’ comments. Proper changes have been made in the ms. according to suggestions and consequently, the ms. was considerably improved compared to its initial submission. However, English should be polished, preferably by a professional editing service. 

 

 

 

I recommend English editing prior to publication.

Author Response

Response: We have checked the manuscript and modified all typos and English errors.