A Spatial Risk Analysis of Springtime Daily Minimum Surface Air Temperature Values for Vineyard Site Selection: Applications to Pinot noir Grapevines throughout the Willamette Valley American Viticultural Area
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Study Area
2.2. Pinot noir Cold Hardiness Data
2.3. Time Series Data
PRISM Gridded Temperature Data
2.4. Methods
2.4.1. Budbreak Calculations
2.4.2. Block Minima Dataset Development
2.4.3. Extreme Value Theory for Block Minima
2.4.4. Return Level Estimation and Gridded Pointwise Return Level Maps
3. Results and Discussion
3.1. Computed Budbreak Estimates
3.2. April 2022 Frost Event
3.3. Return Level Estimates for a Single PRISM Grid Data Location
3.4. Reclassified Gridded Return Level Maps
3.5. Spatial Vineyard Site Selection Combining Ripening Potential and Springtime Frost Risk
4. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Phenological Stage | E-L Stages [28] | No Injury (°C) | LT50 (°C) |
---|---|---|---|
Bud scales opening | 2 | NA | −14.0 |
Woolly bud | 3 | NA | −3.4 |
Budbreak | 4 | −1.0 | −2.2 |
First leaf | 7 | −1.0 | −2.0 |
Second leaf | 9 | −1.0 | −1.7 |
Fourth leaf | 11 | −0.6 | −1.2 |
% WV AVA | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
20-Year (1991–2021) | 20-Year (1991–2022) | |||||
No Injury | Injury but LT50 Not Exceeded | LT50 Exceeded | No Injury | Injury but LT50 Not Exceeded | LT50 Exceeded | |
Upper 90% | 100 | 0 | 0 | 100 | 0 | 0 |
3rd Quartile | 99.48 | 0.52 | 0 | 99.56 | 0.44 | 0 |
2nd Quartile | 95.06 | 4.94 | 0 | 95.19 | 4.81 | 0 |
1st Quartile | 57.64 | 42.16 | 0.20 | 46.80 | 52.97 | 0.23 |
Lower 90% | 0.07 | 75.33 | 24.60 | 0.08 | 73.78 | 26.14 |
30-year (1991–2021) | 30-year (1991–2022) | |||||
Upper 90% | 100 | 0 | 0 | 100 | 0 | 0 |
3rd Quartile | 97.97 | 2.03 | 0 | 98.05 | 1.95 | 0 |
2nd Quartile | 90.96 | 9.04 | 0 | 90.67 | 9.33 | 0 |
1st Quartile | 41.53 | 57.93 | 0.54 | 29.51 | 69.96 | 0.54 |
Lower 90% | 0.04 | 60.05 | 39.91 | 0.04 | 58.45 | 41.51 |
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Skahill, B.; Berenguer, B.; Stoll, M. A Spatial Risk Analysis of Springtime Daily Minimum Surface Air Temperature Values for Vineyard Site Selection: Applications to Pinot noir Grapevines throughout the Willamette Valley American Viticultural Area. Agronomy 2024, 14, 1566. https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy14071566
Skahill B, Berenguer B, Stoll M. A Spatial Risk Analysis of Springtime Daily Minimum Surface Air Temperature Values for Vineyard Site Selection: Applications to Pinot noir Grapevines throughout the Willamette Valley American Viticultural Area. Agronomy. 2024; 14(7):1566. https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy14071566
Chicago/Turabian StyleSkahill, Brian, Bryan Berenguer, and Manfred Stoll. 2024. "A Spatial Risk Analysis of Springtime Daily Minimum Surface Air Temperature Values for Vineyard Site Selection: Applications to Pinot noir Grapevines throughout the Willamette Valley American Viticultural Area" Agronomy 14, no. 7: 1566. https://doi.org/10.3390/agronomy14071566