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Article

Characteristics of Extreme Value Statistics of Annual Maximum Monthly Precipitation in East Asia Calculated Using an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity

by
Tosiyuki Nakaegawa
1,*,
Takuro Kobashi
2 and
Hirotaka Kamahori
3
1
Department of Applied Meteorological Research, Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba 305-0052, Japan
2
Center for Global Environment Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba 305-8506, Japan
3
Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo, Kashiwa 277-8568, Japan
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Atmosphere 2020, 11(12), 1273; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11121273
Submission received: 19 October 2020 / Revised: 15 November 2020 / Accepted: 20 November 2020 / Published: 25 November 2020

Abstract

Extreme precipitation is no longer stationary under a changing climate due to the increase in greenhouse gas emissions. Nonstationarity must be considered when realistically estimating the amount of extreme precipitation for future prevention and mitigation. Extreme precipitation with a certain return level is usually estimated using extreme value analysis under a stationary climate assumption without evidence. In this study, the characteristics of extreme value statistics of annual maximum monthly precipitation in East Asia were evaluated using a nonstationary historical climate simulation with an Earth system model of intermediate complexity, capable of long-term integration over 12,000 years (i.e., the Holocene). The climatological means of the annual maximum monthly precipitation for each 100-year interval had nonstationary time series, and the ratios of the largest annual maximum monthly precipitation to the climatological mean had nonstationary time series with large spike variations. The extreme value analysis revealed that the annual maximum monthly precipitation with a return level of 100 years estimated for each 100-year interval also presented a nonstationary time series which was normally distributed and not autocorrelated, even with the preceding and following 100-year interval (lag 1). Wavelet analysis of this time series showed that significant periodicity was only detected in confined areas of the time–frequency space.
Keywords: annual maximum monthly precipitation; extreme value analysis; paleoclimate; earth system models of intermediate complexity; nonstationary; climate change annual maximum monthly precipitation; extreme value analysis; paleoclimate; earth system models of intermediate complexity; nonstationary; climate change

Share and Cite

MDPI and ACS Style

Nakaegawa, T.; Kobashi, T.; Kamahori, H. Characteristics of Extreme Value Statistics of Annual Maximum Monthly Precipitation in East Asia Calculated Using an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity. Atmosphere 2020, 11, 1273. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11121273

AMA Style

Nakaegawa T, Kobashi T, Kamahori H. Characteristics of Extreme Value Statistics of Annual Maximum Monthly Precipitation in East Asia Calculated Using an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity. Atmosphere. 2020; 11(12):1273. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11121273

Chicago/Turabian Style

Nakaegawa, Tosiyuki, Takuro Kobashi, and Hirotaka Kamahori. 2020. "Characteristics of Extreme Value Statistics of Annual Maximum Monthly Precipitation in East Asia Calculated Using an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity" Atmosphere 11, no. 12: 1273. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11121273

APA Style

Nakaegawa, T., Kobashi, T., & Kamahori, H. (2020). Characteristics of Extreme Value Statistics of Annual Maximum Monthly Precipitation in East Asia Calculated Using an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity. Atmosphere, 11(12), 1273. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11121273

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