Annual and Seasonal Precipitation and Their Extremes over the Tibetan Plateau and Its Surroundings in 1963–2015
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Methods
2.1. Study Domain
2.2. Data
2.3. Methods
2.3.1. Trend Test
2.3.2. Gumbel Distribution
2.3.3. Goodness of Fit Test for Recurrence Period
2.3.4. Maximum Length of Dry Spell—CDD
3. Results
3.1. Temporal and Spatial Distributions of Precipitation
3.2. Seasonal and Annual Trends
3.3. Precipitation and Its Trends in the River Basins
3.4. Recurrence Intervals of Extreme Daily Precipitation
4. Discussions
4.1. Correlations of Precipitation with Climate Systems
4.2. Patterns and Changes of Water Vapor
4.3. Patterns and Changes of Atmospheric Instability
5. Conclusions
- There exists a clear southeast-northwest precipitation gradient in the TPS. The wettest and driest stations on the TPS are Emeishan in S and Lenghu in Q, respectively. Maximum daily precipitation shows a similar pattern to that of precipitation at seasonal and annual time scales, while the consecutive dry days (CDDs) exhibit a nearly opposite pattern to that of precipitation.
- The wet southeastern TPS generally corresponds to little or small positive trends in CDDs and negative trends in precipitation and maximum daily precipitation during most of the seasons and at annual time scale while the opposite is true for the dry central and northwestern TPS. This suggests that the wet southeast is trending dry while the dry center and northwest are trending wet in 1963–2015. Also, increases (decreases) in precipitation tend to correspond to increases (decreases) in maximum daily precipitation but decreases (increases) in CDDs, which suggest that it is the extremes daily precipitation that matter the most.
- The drying tendency over the wet basins in the southeast in the wet season and wetting tendency over the dry and semi-dry basins in the center and northwest could have some implications for water resources in the region. The drying tendency in the wet basins would reduce the supply of fresh water in the wet season when water is especially needed while the wetting tendency in the dry and semi-dry basins would benefit the watersheds.
- The thresholds for the 20-year, 50-year, 100-year, and 200-year recurrence periods decrease from the southeast to the northwest, consistent with the spatial patterns of annual precipitation and annual maximum daily precipitation. The highest thresholds for all recurrence periods occur at Leshan, one of the wettest stations, whereas the lowest thresholds appear at Lenghu, one of the driest stations. The greatest extreme precipitation events tend to occur after the late 1990s and in the southeastern TPS.
- The climate systems that directly and indirectly impact the TPS appear to work collectively in a dynamic way and precipitation changes on the TPS cannot be fully attributed to one climate system. What seems clear is that (1) moisture transports to the southeast from the south and the west are weakened in summer due to the weakening of the southerly/westerly as related to the weakening of the summer monsoons/the westerly jet; (2) moisture transports to the center are strengthened in winter due to the strengthening of the westerly jet and NAO; and (3) decreased instability over the southeast and increased instability over the center are conducive to the drying trends in the southeast and the wetting trends in the center. NAO and topography also seem to play some roles in precipitation changes over the TPS.
Supplementary Materials
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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BPR(9) | CQB(6) | CTB(2) | IDR(1) | MKR(5) | NQMB(10) | SWR(4) | TRB(20) | YLR(18) | YTR(37) | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Seasonal and annual precipitation | ||||||||||
spring | 96.6 | 22.8 | 25.0 | 5.0 | 119.4 | 34.3 | 111.5 | 20.9 | 119.4 | 133.8 |
summer | 316.4 | 84.7 | 225.3 | 53.3 | 390.3 | 130.7 | 360.6 | 44.2 | 279.3 | 463.7 |
autumn | 106.3 | 20.5 | 60.6 | 8.2 | 160.4 | 40.2 | 157.8 | 13.4 | 122.9 | 185.1 |
winter | 11.5 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 34.9 | 4.7 | 25.1 | 5.8 | 20.4 | 21.2 |
annual | 530.8 | 131.9 | 315.2 | 70.6 | 708.2 | 209.8 | 658.3 | 84.3 | 543.6 | 803.2 |
Trends of seasonal and annual precipitation | ||||||||||
spring | 0.2167 | 0.0087 | 0.1280 | −0.0047 | 0.1194 | 0.0233 | 0.1937 | 0.0112 | 0.0627 | 0.1065 |
summer | −0.0407 | 0.1281 | 0.1614 | −0.0522 | −0.1753 | 0.1226 | −0.1416 | 0.0835 | −0.0927 | −0.1534 |
autumn | 0.0791 | 0.0092 | 0.0574 | −0.0024 | 0.1273 | 0.0487 | 0.0643 | 0.0254 | 0.0015 | −0.0909 |
winter | 0.0154 | 0.0013 | 0.0084 | −0.0015 | −0.0115 | 0.0041 | −0.0298 | 0.0009 | −0.0041 | −0.0131 |
annual | 0.9860 | 0.3610 | 1.9022 | −0.0200 | −0.1686 | 0.6970 | 0.4503 | 0.5420 | −0.1273 | −0.4120 |
Climate System Index | Abbreviation | Definition/Reference | Data Source | Available for Months |
---|---|---|---|---|
Indian Summer Monsoon Index | ISM | Wang and Fan [34], Wang et al. [35] | Asia-Pacific Data-Research Center (APDRC; http://apdrc.soest.hawaii.edu/projects/monsoon/seasonal-monidx.html, last accessed on 12 May 2021) | 6–9 |
Western North Pacific Monsoon Index | WNPM | Wang and Fan [34], Wang et al. [35] | Asia-Pacific Data-Research Center (APDRC; http://apdrc.soest.hawaii.edu/projects/monsoon/seasonal-monidx.html, last accessed on 12 May 2021) | 6–9 |
East Asian Westerly Jet Index | WJ | Duan and Wu [36] | Duan and Wu (2009) | 1–12 |
ENSO | ENSO | Multivariate El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index is the time series of the leading combined EOF of 5 different variables over the tropical Pacific basin, 30 S–30° N, 100 E–70° W | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA; https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/, last accessed on 12 May 2021) | 1–12 |
North Atlantic Oscillation | NAO | NAO index is based on the surface sea-level pressure difference between the Subtropical (Azores) High and the Subpolar Low | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA; https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/nao/, last accessed on 12 May 2021) | 1–12 |
Tibet Plateau High Index | TH | At 500 hPa pressure level, the accumulated value of cell area multiplied by the difference between cell geopotential height (GPM) and 5000 GPM in 30 N–40° N, 75 E–105° E | China Meteorological Administration (CMA) | 1–12 |
ISM | WNPM | WJ | ENSO | NAO | TH | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
spring | 0.0185 | 0.0114 | 0.0064 | 2.2503 | ||
summer | −0.0090 | −0.0006 | −0.0059 | 0.0137 | −0.0186 | 2.4487 |
autumn | 0.0111 | 0.0034 | −0.0055 | 2.9216 | ||
winter | 0.0539 | −0.0008 | 0.0241 | 2.6635 |
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Ding, J.; Cuo, L.; Zhang, Y.; Zhang, C.; Liang, L.; Liu, Z. Annual and Seasonal Precipitation and Their Extremes over the Tibetan Plateau and Its Surroundings in 1963–2015. Atmosphere 2021, 12, 620. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12050620
Ding J, Cuo L, Zhang Y, Zhang C, Liang L, Liu Z. Annual and Seasonal Precipitation and Their Extremes over the Tibetan Plateau and Its Surroundings in 1963–2015. Atmosphere. 2021; 12(5):620. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12050620
Chicago/Turabian StyleDing, Jin, Lan Cuo, Yongxin Zhang, Cunjie Zhang, Liqiao Liang, and Zhe Liu. 2021. "Annual and Seasonal Precipitation and Their Extremes over the Tibetan Plateau and Its Surroundings in 1963–2015" Atmosphere 12, no. 5: 620. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12050620
APA StyleDing, J., Cuo, L., Zhang, Y., Zhang, C., Liang, L., & Liu, Z. (2021). Annual and Seasonal Precipitation and Their Extremes over the Tibetan Plateau and Its Surroundings in 1963–2015. Atmosphere, 12(5), 620. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12050620