Projection of Extreme Summer Precipitation over Hubei Province in the 21st Century
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Study Area
3. Data and Methods
3.1. Reanalysis of ERA5 Datasets
3.2. The Reginal Climate Model (RegCM)
3.3. Climate Indices
3.4. Methods of Analysis
4. Results
4.1. Validation of the Model Simulation and ERA5
4.2. Climatology of Rainfall over Hubei
4.3. Changes in Annual Mean Precipitation
4.4. Spatial Changes in EPIs
4.5. Temporal Changes in EPIs
4.6. Seasonal Analysis of Extreme Precipitation Indices in Summer for the Mid-21st Century (2046–2065)
4.6.1. Spatial Patterns
4.6.2. Temporal Patterns
4.7. Spatial–Temporal Changes of EPIs in Summer for the Late 21st Century (2078–2097)
4.7.1. Spatial Changes
4.7.2. Temporal Changes
5. Discussions and Conclusions
- The R10mm will increase significantly (p < 0.05) during the summer of the mid-21st century in the south northern parts, especially for Wuhan, Xiantao, Qianjiang, Jinzhuo, and Ezhou. The majority of EPIs, except CDD, are expected to rise. This indicates the need for more focus on disaster prevention during summer.
- Rx5day, R10mm, and SDII will all gradually decrease in the summer of the late 21st century toward the western parts. However, they may climb throughout other parts of Hubei, indicating an increase in the rates of drought during the summer of the 21st century.
- More focus needs to be placed on the rainstorms that are expected in Wuhan, Xiantao, Qianjiang, and Tianmen, particularly during the summer of the mid-21st century, where there may be a significant increase in the R10mm. This could lead to more floods and financial losses during the periods of intense rainfall.
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Indicator Units | Index Name | Definitions | Units |
---|---|---|---|
Rx5day | Maximum 5-day precipitation | Annual maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation | mm |
R10mm | Number of heavy precipitation days | Annual number of days when the daily precipitation is >l0 mm | days |
CWD | Consecutive wet days | Average daily precipitation on wet days, mm/day | days |
CDD | Consecutive dry days | Average daily precipitation on dry days, mm/day | days |
SDII | Simple daily intensity index | Daily precipitation (≥1 mm) in the year | mm/day |
Mean | Bias | RMSD | RMSE | STD | R | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ERA5 | 3.85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
RegCM | 3.69 | 0.17 | 4.34 | 4.34 | 0.99 | 027 |
EPI | S | Z | p | Trend |
---|---|---|---|---|
Rx5day | 75 | 1.5427 | 0.12291 | |
R10mm | 30 | 0.60636 | 0.54427 | Based on the available data, no statistically significant trend was observed |
CWD | −35 | 0.70879 | 0.47845 | |
CDD | 41 | 0.88052 | 0.37858 | |
SDII | 19 | 0.37524 | 0.70748 |
EPI | High | Low | S | Z | p | Trend |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rx5day | 65 | −30 | 28 | 0.876 | 0.38103 | Non-significant increasing |
R10mm | 15 | −5 | 64 | 2.044 | 0.040955 | Significant increasing |
CWD | 40 | −25 | 43 | 1.7195 | 0.16175 | Non-significant increasing |
CDD | 45 | −15 | −54 | 1.7195 | 0.085515 | Non-significant decreasing |
SDII | 45 | −15 | 12 | 0.35689 | 0.77029 | Non-significant increasing |
EPI | High | Low | S | Z | p | Trend |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rx5day | 70 | −55 | −2 | 0.032444 | 0.97412 | There is no statistically significant trend |
Rx10mm | 15 | −5 | −49 | 1.5581 | 0.1192 | |
CWD | 20 | −10 | 24 | 0.74622 | 0.45554 | |
CDD | 25 | −15 | 54 | 1.7195 | 0.085515 | |
SDII | 20 | −10 | −38 | 1.2004 | 0.22997 |
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Mubark, A.; Chen, Q.; Abdallah, M.; Hussien, A.; Hamadalnel, M. Projection of Extreme Summer Precipitation over Hubei Province in the 21st Century. Atmosphere 2024, 15, 983. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15080983
Mubark A, Chen Q, Abdallah M, Hussien A, Hamadalnel M. Projection of Extreme Summer Precipitation over Hubei Province in the 21st Century. Atmosphere. 2024; 15(8):983. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15080983
Chicago/Turabian StyleMubark, Abrar, Qian Chen, Mohamed Abdallah, Awad Hussien, and Monzer Hamadalnel. 2024. "Projection of Extreme Summer Precipitation over Hubei Province in the 21st Century" Atmosphere 15, no. 8: 983. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15080983