Impact of May–June Antarctic Oscillation on July–August Heat-Drought Weather in Yangtze River Basin
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Data and Methods
2.1. Data
2.2. Method
2.2.1. Statistical Methods and Machine Learning Methods
2.2.2. Butterworth Filters and Effective Degrees of Freedom
2.2.3. Solve the Rossby Wave Flux and Its Zonal Channel Crossing
2.2.4. Definition of HDWI
3. Results
3.1. Climatic and Oceanic Background of HDW in the YRB
3.2. Mechanism of AAO Influencing the HDW in the YRB
3.3. Predictability of SOSST for the HDW in the YRB
4. Conclusions
- (1)
- A statistically significant correlation shows a positive phase between MJ AAO and JA PC3 of HDW in the YRB during summer. Preceding MJ AAO has a significant correlation to following JA HDW in the YRB, with a positive correlation in the western part of UYRB, and a negative correlation in the northeastern part of MYRB to LYRB.
- (2)
- The seasonal persistence of the AAO signal is handled by the underlying Southern Ocean, with key regions of SST anomalies in the South Atlantic and Southwestern Pacific reflecting as a SOSST pattern. MJ AAO imprinted itself into SOSST and was prolonged into late July–August by the oceanic memory. JA SOSST adjusted East Asian atmospheric circulation through the Rossby wave propagation and further affected simultaneous HDW in the YRB, as the lagging impact of MJ AAO.
- (3)
- JA SOSST induced an anticyclonic anomaly over the South Atlantic-South Indian Ocean, triggering wave dispersion splitting into two branches. One propagated eastward and equatorward through the Somalia-Tropical Indian Ocean tunnel, maintaining a negative phased EAP pattern, favoring northerlies anomaly along with the weakened high-latitudinal air invasion over the eastern YRB, resulting in the southerly domination. Another branch propagated directly equatorward through the Somali region, resulting in a positive geopotential height anomaly over the Urals-Western Asia, favoring the southeast invasion of high latitudinal air flow, weakening the moisture of the UYRB. Therefore, MJ AAO induced cross-equatorial planetary wave propagation through seasonal-persistent SOSST, leading to different moisture and temperature conditions, thereby HDW in the UYRB and MYRB-LYRB during late summer.
- (4)
- The SST anomalies of the Southern Ocean, especially in the South Atlantic, have indications for the JA HDW in the YRB to some extent. Through the PLS method, the JA HDW in the YRB of 2022 was well reproduced by the SST anomalies of the Southern Ocean, with the anomaly consistency rate as 97.76%.
Supplementary Materials
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Yuan, Z.; Zhang, J.; Du, L.; Xiao, Y.; Huang, S. Impact of May–June Antarctic Oscillation on July–August Heat-Drought Weather in Yangtze River Basin. Atmosphere 2024, 15, 998. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15080998
Yuan Z, Zhang J, Du L, Xiao Y, Huang S. Impact of May–June Antarctic Oscillation on July–August Heat-Drought Weather in Yangtze River Basin. Atmosphere. 2024; 15(8):998. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15080998
Chicago/Turabian StyleYuan, Zhengxuan, Jun Zhang, Liangmin Du, Ying Xiao, and Sijing Huang. 2024. "Impact of May–June Antarctic Oscillation on July–August Heat-Drought Weather in Yangtze River Basin" Atmosphere 15, no. 8: 998. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15080998