Impact of Polar Vortex Modes on Winter Weather Patterns in the Northern Hemisphere
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Data and Methods
2.1. ERA5 Reanalysis
2.2. Classification of Winters in M22
2.3. Calculating the NAM Indices
2.4. Statistical Significance Assessment: Wilcoxon Signed-Rank Test
2.5. Ural and Aleutian Blocking Regions
2.6. The Eliassen–Palm Flux
3. Results
3.1. Northern Annular Mode Indices: Stratosphere–Troposphere Coupling
3.2. MSLP Anomalies and Regional Blocking
3.2.1. Monthly MSLP Anomalies for Stratospheric Modes
3.2.2. Lead–Lag Correlations between Stratospheric Modes and Regional Blocking
3.3. Eliassen–Palm Flux Analysis of Planetary Wave Dynamics
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
- As precursors, the January and Double modes present Ural blocking and Aleutian trough events in December and November, respectively, associated with an upward–equatorward wave-1 propagation, while the February and Dynamical modes display Ural trough and Aleutian blocking events during this period, associated with a downward–poleward wave-1 propagation. Specifically, the Radiative mode exhibits a significant Aleutian blocking event as a precursor in November and December.
- In the pre-warming phases, the January and Double modes display upward–equatorward wave-1 and downward–poleward wave-2 propagations, while the February and Dynamical modes show upward–equatorward wave-1 and wave-2 propagations.
- During warming, the January and Double modes exhibit downward and poleward wave-1 and wave-2 propagations, associated with negative AO-like responses, while the February mode displays downward–poleward wave-1 and an upward–equatorward wave-2 propagations without generating particular tropospheric responses.
- In the recovery phase, the February mode displays a downward–poleward propagation of both wave-1 and wave-2, which is associated with a slight surface impact outside the Ural and Aleutian regions.
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
Appendix A
- January single-warming mode: 1950/1951, 1952/1953, 1954/1955, 1959/1960, 1967/1968, 1969/1970, 1970/1971, 1976/1977, 1984/1985, 1997/1998, 2001/2002, 2002/2003, 2003/2004, 2005/2006, 2011/2012, 2012/2013, 2018/2019
- February single-warming mode: 1956/1957, 1957/1958, 1962/1963, 1972/1973, 1978/ 1979, 1980/1981, 1982/1983, 1986/1987, 1988/1989, 1989/1990, 1990/1991, 1994/1995, 2007/2008, 2008/2009, 2009/2010, 2016/2017, 2017/2018
- Double warmings mode: 1951/1952, 1965/1966, 1968/1969, 1979/1980, 1987/1988, 1998/1999, 2000/2001
- Dynamical final warming mode: 1955/1956, 1958/1959, 1960/1961, 1963/1964, 1973/ 1974, 1974/1975, 1975/1976, 1985/1986, 1992/1993, 1995/1996, 1999/2000, 2010/2011, 2013/2014, 2014/2015, 2015/2016
- Radiative final warming mode: 1961/1962, 1964/1965, 1966/1967, 1996/1997, 2019/ 2020
- Unclassified winters: 1953/1954, 1971/1972, 1977/1978, 1981/1982, 1983/1984, 1991/ 1992, 1993/1994, 2004/2005, 2006/2007
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MSLP Anomaly (hPa) | Jan Mode | Feb Mode | Double Mode | Dynamical Mode | Radiative Mode | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Ural blocking region | November | 159 | −87 | 311 | −166 | 76 |
December | 395 | −180 | −186 | −184 | 233 | |
Aleutian blocking region | November | 10 | −24 | −89 | 100 | 167 |
December | −191 | 119 | 101 | 77 | 135 |
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Mariaccia, A.; Keckhut, P.; Hauchecorne, A. Impact of Polar Vortex Modes on Winter Weather Patterns in the Northern Hemisphere. Atmosphere 2024, 15, 1062. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15091062
Mariaccia A, Keckhut P, Hauchecorne A. Impact of Polar Vortex Modes on Winter Weather Patterns in the Northern Hemisphere. Atmosphere. 2024; 15(9):1062. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15091062
Chicago/Turabian StyleMariaccia, Alexis, Philippe Keckhut, and Alain Hauchecorne. 2024. "Impact of Polar Vortex Modes on Winter Weather Patterns in the Northern Hemisphere" Atmosphere 15, no. 9: 1062. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15091062