Climate Change Impact Assessment on Freshwater Inflow into the Small Aral Sea
Abstract
:1. Introduction
- How well does the state-of-the-art machine learning model simulate freshwater inflow into the Small Aral Sea?
- What are the main drivers that affect freshwater inflow simulation?
- How well do different runoff projections represent the historical period (2007–2016)? What are the most reliable runoff projections for climate change impact assessment (2017–2099)?
- To what extent will the intra-annual regime of freshwater inflow transform due to projected climate change?
- What are the projected changes in climatic annual freshwater inflow?
- To what extent will the key driver of freshwater inflow formation transform due to projected climate change?
2. Study Area
3. Materials and Methods
3.1. Modeling Chain Overview
3.2. Runoff and Meteorological Forcing Data
3.3. Runoff Reanalysis Development
3.4. Machine Learning
3.5. Metrics
4. Results and Discussion
4.1. Simulation of Freshwater Inflow into the Small Aral Sea for the Historical Period
4.2. Reliability of Freshwater Inflow Projections on the Historical Period
4.3. Climate Change Impact Assessment on Freshwater Inflow into the Small Aral Sea
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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GCM and RCP | NSE | KGE |
---|---|---|
GFDL-ESM2M RCP2.6 | 0.12 | 0.51 |
HadGEM2-ES RCP2.6 | 0.5 | 0.61 |
IPSL-CM5A-LR RCP2.6 | 0.76 | 0.76 |
MIROC5 RCP2.6 | 0.93 | 0.89 |
GFDL-ESM2M RCP6.0 | 0.23 | 0.55 |
HadGEM2-ES RCP6.0 | −0.43 | 0.36 |
IPSL-CM5A-LR RCP6.0 | 0.91 | 0.89 |
MIROC5 RCP6.0 | 0.87 | 0.79 |
GFDL-ESM2M RCP8.5 | −0.21 | 0.43 |
HadGEM2-ES RCP8.5 | 0.78 | 0.77 |
IPSL-CM5A-LR RCP8.5 | 0.87 | 0.8 |
MIROC5 RCP8.5 | 0.72 | 0.68 |
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Ayzel, G.; Izhitskiy, A. Climate Change Impact Assessment on Freshwater Inflow into the Small Aral Sea. Water 2019, 11, 2377. https://doi.org/10.3390/w11112377
Ayzel G, Izhitskiy A. Climate Change Impact Assessment on Freshwater Inflow into the Small Aral Sea. Water. 2019; 11(11):2377. https://doi.org/10.3390/w11112377
Chicago/Turabian StyleAyzel, Georgy, and Alexander Izhitskiy. 2019. "Climate Change Impact Assessment on Freshwater Inflow into the Small Aral Sea" Water 11, no. 11: 2377. https://doi.org/10.3390/w11112377