Modeling of Future Extreme Storm Surges at the NW Mediterranean Coast (Spain)
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Study Area
3. Theoretical Background and Methods
3.1. The Process-Based Model
3.2. Statistical Model
3.2.1. Commonalities of the Two Strategies
3.2.2. Differences of the Two Strategies for Modeling Dependence
3.3. Validation of the Non-Stationary Statistical Model
4. Results
4.1. Process-Based Model
4.2. Non-Stationary Statistical Models
5. Discussion
6. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Conflicts of Interest
Abbreviations
AIC | Akaike Information Criterion |
CMIP5 | Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 |
East Atlantic Pattern | |
GCM | General Circulation Model |
GPD | Generalized Pareto Distribution |
HYPSE | Hydrostatic Padua Surface Elevation Model |
North Atlantic Oscillation | |
Probability Distribution Function | |
RCM | Regional Circulation Model |
REDMAR | RED de MAReográfos (Spanish Acronym for Puertos del Estado Tidal Monitoring Network) |
Scandinavian Pattern | |
SWH | Significant Wave Height |
VGAM | Vectorial Generalized Additive Model |
VGLM | Vectorial Generalized Linear Model |
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D | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Both strategies | Storm surge threshold | () | ||
Frequency | () | |||
Location parameter () of the generalized Pareto distribution | – | – | ||
Strategy #1: Lin-Ye | Scale parameter of the generalized Pareto distribution | () | () | |
Strategy #2: Marra-Radice | () | – | ||
Kendall’s of the copula | () |
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Lin-Ye, J.; García-León, M.; Gràcia, V.; Ortego, M.I.; Lionello, P.; Conte, D.; Pérez-Gómez, B.; Sánchez-Arcilla, A. Modeling of Future Extreme Storm Surges at the NW Mediterranean Coast (Spain). Water 2020, 12, 472. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12020472
Lin-Ye J, García-León M, Gràcia V, Ortego MI, Lionello P, Conte D, Pérez-Gómez B, Sánchez-Arcilla A. Modeling of Future Extreme Storm Surges at the NW Mediterranean Coast (Spain). Water. 2020; 12(2):472. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12020472
Chicago/Turabian StyleLin-Ye, Jue, Manuel García-León, Vicente Gràcia, María Isabel Ortego, Piero Lionello, Dario Conte, Begoña Pérez-Gómez, and Agustín Sánchez-Arcilla. 2020. "Modeling of Future Extreme Storm Surges at the NW Mediterranean Coast (Spain)" Water 12, no. 2: 472. https://doi.org/10.3390/w12020472