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Volume 13
Issue 5
10.3390/w13050648
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Article

Thirty-Nine-Year Wave Hindcast, Storm Activity, and Probability Analysis of Storm Waves in the Kara Sea, Russia

by
Stanislav Myslenkov
1,2,3,*,
Vladimir Platonov
1,
Alexander Kislov
1,
Ksenia Silvestrova
2 and
Igor Medvedev
2,4
1
Department of Oceanology, Lomonosov Moscow State University, 119991 Moscow, Russia
2
Shirshov Institute of Oceanology RAS, 117997 Moscow, Russia
3
Hydrometeorological Research Centre of the Russian Federation, 123242 Moscow, Russia
4
Fedorov Institute of Applied Geophysics, 129128 Moscow, Russia
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Water 2021, 13(5), 648; https://doi.org/10.3390/w13050648
Submission received: 19 December 2020 / Revised: 22 February 2021 / Accepted: 23 February 2021 / Published: 28 February 2021
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Advances in Coastal and Ocean Engineering)
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Abstract

The recurrence of extreme wind waves in the Kara Sea strongly influences the Arctic climate change. The period 2000–2010 is characterized by significant climate warming, a reduction of the sea ice in the Arctic. The main motivation of this research to assess the impact of climate change on storm activity over the past 39 years in the Kara Sea. The paper presents the analysis of wave climate and storm activity in the Kara Sea based on the results of numerical modeling. A wave model WAVEWATCH III is used to reconstruct wind wave fields for the period from 1979 to 2017. The maximum significant wave height (SWH) for the whole period amounts to 9.9 m. The average long-term SWH for the ice-free period does not exceed 1.3 m. A significant linear trend shows an increase in the storm wave frequency for the period from 1979 to 2017. It is shown that trends in the storm activity of the Kara Sea are primarily regulated by the ice. Analysis of the extreme storm events showed that the Pareto distribution is in the best agreement with the data. However, the extreme events with an SWH more than 6‒7 m deviate from the Pareto distribution.
Keywords: the Kara Sea; wave climate; storm activity; wind waves; wave modeling; WAVEWATCH III; probabilistic analysis; extreme waves the Kara Sea; wave climate; storm activity; wind waves; wave modeling; WAVEWATCH III; probabilistic analysis; extreme waves

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MDPI and ACS Style

Myslenkov, S.; Platonov, V.; Kislov, A.; Silvestrova, K.; Medvedev, I. Thirty-Nine-Year Wave Hindcast, Storm Activity, and Probability Analysis of Storm Waves in the Kara Sea, Russia. Water 2021, 13, 648. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13050648

AMA Style

Myslenkov S, Platonov V, Kislov A, Silvestrova K, Medvedev I. Thirty-Nine-Year Wave Hindcast, Storm Activity, and Probability Analysis of Storm Waves in the Kara Sea, Russia. Water. 2021; 13(5):648. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13050648

Chicago/Turabian Style

Myslenkov, Stanislav, Vladimir Platonov, Alexander Kislov, Ksenia Silvestrova, and Igor Medvedev. 2021. "Thirty-Nine-Year Wave Hindcast, Storm Activity, and Probability Analysis of Storm Waves in the Kara Sea, Russia" Water 13, no. 5: 648. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13050648

APA Style

Myslenkov, S., Platonov, V., Kislov, A., Silvestrova, K., & Medvedev, I. (2021). Thirty-Nine-Year Wave Hindcast, Storm Activity, and Probability Analysis of Storm Waves in the Kara Sea, Russia. Water, 13(5), 648. https://doi.org/10.3390/w13050648

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