How to Incorporate System Archetypes into Water Conflicts Analysis: Application in Euphrates, Nile, Zambezi, and Lake Kivu Transboundary Basins
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. System Dynamics and System Archetypes
2.2. Hydropolitical System Archetypes
3. Results
3.1. Success to the Successful’ in the Euphrates River Basin
3.2. The “Escalation” in the Blue Nile River Basin
3.3. Shifting the Burden’ in the Zambezi River Basin
3.4. Tragedy of the Commons in the Lake Kivu
4. Discussion
4.1. Contribution to the Hydropolitics Research
4.2. Limitations
4.3. Future Research
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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System Archetype | Pattern of Behavior | Prescriptive Action |
---|---|---|
Success to the successful (Figure 2a) | The rich becoming richer and the poor becoming poorer. | Designing the relation between the two reinforcing structures so that the winner’s activities simultaneously cause a reduction in the loser’s dependency on the allocation of shared resource(s). |
Escalation (Figure 3a) | Each side will try harder and harder to surpass the other one. | Launching a negative link from one side’s activity to another side’s tendency following the escalation contributes to emerging a balancing loop that tackles the unintended behavior of the archetype. |
Shifting the burden (Figure 4a) | Preferring a short-term solution rather than the long-term one shifts the responsibility to a third party. | Shortening the time taken to recognize the long-term solution can prevent states from falling into the archetype’s trap. |
Tragedy of the commons (Figure 5a) | Individuals with access to a common sink or source act in their own interests and, in doing so, ultimately deplete common resources. | The key solution in this archetype is launching a balancing loop to prevent parties from individual exploitation activities. |
Transboundary Basins | Potential Behavior over Time | System Interventions |
---|---|---|
Euphrates | We would probably would witness incremental changes in the upstream state’s development, relying on water and reducing that of the downstream state in the transboundary basin, resulting from R1 and R2 loop’s activities, respectively. | Here, decreasing the downstream state’s dependency on the water by changing its development path towards less dependency on the water in a transition period alongside the upstream state’s development will increase the downstream state’s resilience and negate the archetype’s unintended behavior in weakening the downstream states. This measure could be met by Turkey, Syria itself, or the interventions of third parties. |
Nile | The typical behavior expected from the prototype suggests an escalation taking place between Egypt and Ethiopia because each state tries to take advantage of this asymmetrical situation to become the hydro-hegemon in the region. | The solution is grounded on providing a negative causal link travelling from “Egypt’s development” to “Ethiopia’s tendency to balance the hydro-hegemony”. In that regard, benefit-sharing would be a well-fitting strategy. |
Zambezi | Exclusive cooperation reduces the chances of a sustainable deal with other riparian states and increases the risk of the cooperation projects failing. | Taking a shortcut by making a positive causal link between “riparian states’ tendency to cooperation” and the “need for an inclusive agreement” will highlight the awareness of the long-term solution that prevents states from having unilateral cooperation. Including a mandatory provision in water treaties or international water law of so-called “friendship dam” projects can help establish a constructive link to deal with the archetype’s draw back. |
Lake Kivu | Regardless of the power asymmetry between the riparian states or their intentions towards each other, the lake’s persistent pollution could become the Tragedy of the commons archetype. An undesirable future consequence of the archetype would be growing tensions between riparian states who blame each other for such an anthropological crisis. | Assessing and monitoring the pollution contribution of each riparian state is central to efforts to combat this archetype activity. This can start by engaging riparian states themselves or by building into international water law a commitment to monitor and exchange data on transboundary lakes between riparian states. |
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Shahbazbegian, M.; Nabavi, E. How to Incorporate System Archetypes into Water Conflicts Analysis: Application in Euphrates, Nile, Zambezi, and Lake Kivu Transboundary Basins. Water 2023, 15, 1270. https://doi.org/10.3390/w15071270
Shahbazbegian M, Nabavi E. How to Incorporate System Archetypes into Water Conflicts Analysis: Application in Euphrates, Nile, Zambezi, and Lake Kivu Transboundary Basins. Water. 2023; 15(7):1270. https://doi.org/10.3390/w15071270
Chicago/Turabian StyleShahbazbegian, Mohammadreza, and Ehsan Nabavi. 2023. "How to Incorporate System Archetypes into Water Conflicts Analysis: Application in Euphrates, Nile, Zambezi, and Lake Kivu Transboundary Basins" Water 15, no. 7: 1270. https://doi.org/10.3390/w15071270