Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Ecosystem Water Yield Services and Responses to Future Land Use Scenarios in Henan Province, China
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Study Area
2.2. Data Sources
2.3. Methods
2.3.1. Technical Roadmap
2.3.2. InVEST Model WY Module
2.3.3. The PLUS Model
- (1)
- BAU: Under this scenario, this study observed that the development and change pattern observed in the 2010–2020 period would be maintained in the future; the changes in various LULC in Henan would be affected by natural conditions and economic factors, rather than by policies or other external factors.
- (2)
- CPS: Under this scenario, strict measures would be implemented to protect cultivated land. The probability matrix of land transfer would be revised based on the BAU scenario, revealing a 60% reduction in the probability of cultivated land being converted to construction land.
- (3)
- ES: Under this scenario, measures would be taken to reduce the probability (by 50%) of woodland areas, grassland areas, and water being converted to construction land. Additionally, the probability of cultivated land being converted to construction land would decrease by 30%. The saved area would be allocated for the conversion of cultivated land to woodland, promoting ecological conservation.
- (4)
- HDS: Under this scenario, the probability of woodland, grassland, and cultivated land areas being converted to construction land area would increase by 20%. Conversely, the probability of construction land area being converted to woodland, grassland, and unused land areas would reduce by 30%. Moreover, the conversion to cultivated land would decrease by 10%, aimed at high-quality and sustainable development outcomes.
2.3.4. Model Validation
2.3.5. Spatial Autocorrelation
3. Results
3.1. Characteristics of Spatial and Temporal Changes in WY in Henan Province
3.2. WY of Different Land Use Types
3.3. Future LULC Projections
3.4. WY Response Simulation
4. Discussion
4.1. Analysis of Spatial and Temporal Trends of WY
4.2. Impact of LULC Change on WY
4.3. Recommendations for Future Water Resources Management
4.4. Research Limitations and Prospects
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Data | Original Resolution (m) | Data Resources |
---|---|---|
LULC | 30 | https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5210928 |
Soil | 1000 | http://www.ncdc.ac.cn/ (accessed on 2 November 2023) |
Root restricting layer depth | 1000 | http://www.ncdc.ac.cn/ |
PAWC (Plant Available Water Capacity) | 1000 | http://www.ncdc.ac.cn/ |
Precipitation | 1000 | https://www.resdc.cn/ (accessed on 16 October 2023) |
Evapotranspiration | 1000 | https://www.geodata.cn/ (accessed on 9 November 2023) |
Watersheds and sub-watersheds | 30 | https://www.resdc.cn/ |
DEM (Digital Elevation Model) | 30 | https://www.gscloud.cn/ (accessed on 18 November 2023) |
Slope | 30 | https://www.gscloud.cn/ |
Aspect | 30 | https://www.gscloud.cn/ |
Population | 30 | https://www.resdc.cn/ |
GDP | 30 | https://www.resdc.cn/ |
Road network data | 30 | https://www.openstreetmap.org/ (accessed on 18 November 2023) |
BAU | CPS | ES | HDS | |||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
a | b | c | d | e | f | a | b | c | d | e | f | a | b | c | d | e | f | a | b | c | d | e | f | |
a | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
b | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
c | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
d | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
e | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
f | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Year | WY Depth (mm) | WY (108 m³) |
---|---|---|
1990 | 224.98 | 407.04 |
2000 | 260.09 | 482.95 |
2010 | 226.71 | 415.81 |
2020 | 210.65 | 398.56 |
Cultivated Land | Woodland | Grassland | Waters | Unused Land | Construction Land | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2030 | BAU | 104,433.41 | 30,382.16 | 1401.11 | 2099.13 | 2.39 | 27,264.98 |
CPS | 106,712.51 | 30,422.58 | 1409.22 | 2106.33 | 2.41 | 24,930.12 | |
ES | 106,633.05 | 30,992.6 | 1416.02 | 2124.53 | 2.42 | 24,414.55 | |
HDS | 105,061.72 | 30,940.11 | 1410.41 | 2119.54 | 2.41 | 26,048.98 | |
2050 | BAU | 96,562.98 | 314,54.9 | 972.96 | 2281.66 | 2.29 | 34,308.37 |
CPS | 98,669.23 | 31,492.26 | 980.46 | 2288.32 | 2.31 | 32,150.59 | |
ES | 97,143.16 | 31,971.26 | 979.23 | 2303.64 | 2.3 | 33,183.58 | |
HDS | 95,859.82 | 31,436.88 | 968.59 | 2202.1 | 2.1 | 35,113.68 |
Cultivated Land | Woodland | Grassland | Waters | Unused Land | Construction Land | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2020 | 108,634.15 | 29,580.76 | 1896.87 | 2003.5 | 2.67 | 23,465.16 | |
2030 | BAU | –4200.74 | 801.4 | –495.76 | 95.57 | –0.28 | 3799.82 |
CPS | –1921.64 | 841.82 | –487.65 | 102.77 | –0.26 | 1464.95 | |
ES | –2001.1 | 1411.84 | –480.85 | 120.97 | –0.25 | 949.39 | |
HDS | –3572.43 | 1359.35 | –486.46 | 115.98 | –0.26 | 2583.82 | |
2050 | BAU | –12071.17 | 1874.14 | –923.91 | 278.1 | –0.38 | 10,843.21 |
CPS | –9964.92 | 1911.5 | –916.41 | 284.76 | –0.36 | 8685.43 | |
ES | –11,490.99 | 2390.5 | –917.64 | 300.08 | –0.37 | 9718.42 | |
HDS | –12,774.33 | 1856.12 | –928.28 | 198.54 | –0.57 | 11,648.52 |
WY (108 m3) | Amount of Change (108 m3) | WY Depth (mm) | Amount of Change (mm) | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2030 | BAU | 401.42 | 2.85 | 212.54 | 1.89 |
CPS | 399.85 | 1.28 | 211.23 | 0.58 | |
ES | 398.1 | –0.47 | 210.5 | –0.15 | |
HDS | 402.52 | 3.95 | 213.19 | 2.54 | |
2050 | BAU | 407.78 | 9.21 | 216.88 | 6.23 |
CPS | 399.98 | 1.41 | 211.31 | 0.66 | |
ES | 406.65 | 8.08 | 216.11 | 5.46 | |
HDS | 408.89 | 10.32 | 217.51 | 6.86 |
Cultivated Land | Woodland | Grassland | Unused Land | Construction Land | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2030 | BAU | 259.04 | 57.85 | 2.85 | 0.01 | 80.42 |
CPS | 273.60 | 51.01 | 2.74 | 0.0 | 71.56 | |
ES | 262.31 | 58.99 | 2.77 | 0.01 | 72.88 | |
HDS | 256.74 | 57.72 | 2.85 | 0.01 | 84.11 | |
2050 | BAU | 242.43 | 59.59 | 2.09 | 0.01 | 102.25 |
CPS | 275.27 | 50.88 | 2.00 | 0.01 | 70.75 | |
ES | 243.55 | 60.83 | 2.21 | 0.01 | 98.68 | |
HDS | 240.97 | 59.66 | 2.08 | 0.01 | 104.81 |
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Wang, S.; Cai, T.; Wen, Q.; Yin, C.; Han, J.; Zhang, Z. Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Ecosystem Water Yield Services and Responses to Future Land Use Scenarios in Henan Province, China. Water 2024, 16, 2544. https://doi.org/10.3390/w16172544
Wang S, Cai T, Wen Q, Yin C, Han J, Zhang Z. Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Ecosystem Water Yield Services and Responses to Future Land Use Scenarios in Henan Province, China. Water. 2024; 16(17):2544. https://doi.org/10.3390/w16172544
Chicago/Turabian StyleWang, Shuxue, Tianyi Cai, Qian Wen, Chaohui Yin, Jing Han, and Zhichao Zhang. 2024. "Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Ecosystem Water Yield Services and Responses to Future Land Use Scenarios in Henan Province, China" Water 16, no. 17: 2544. https://doi.org/10.3390/w16172544