Prospects for the Spread of the Invasive Oriental River Prawn Macrobrachium nipponense: Potentials and Risks for Aquaculture in Europe

Climate change has amplified the threat posed by aquatic invasive species as potential disruptors of biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. Species Distribution Models (MaxEnt) based on original data and ecological variables have identified contemporary seven global centers of the oriental rivel prawn Macrobrachium nipponense distribution: the native range in East Asia, Northern, Western and Eastern Europe, the Irano-Turanian region, and North and South America. By 2050, further expansion in Europe is expected, likely due to climate change, particularly temperature changes (Bio1) and rain precipitation during the warmest quarter (Bio18). However, the species may see a range reduction in southern Europe due to lower precipitation and increased droughts related to climate change. Therefore, a northward shift in the range of the species is also predicted. In the context of global change, and especially biological invasions, this study highlights the risks of introducing aquaculture based on M. nipponense and recommends controlling such economic activities, which are associated with a high risk for native species and ecosystems. Further, long-term monitoring is needed to assess impacts and to efficiently manage M. nipponense populations that are already present in their non-native habitats, for mitigating their negative effects on native species and ecosystems worldwide.