Spatiotemporal Variations in Farmland Rents and Its Drivers in Rural China: Evidence from Plot-Level Transactions
Round 1
Reviewer 1 Report
Dears Authors,
The article is an interesting study case about “Spatiotemporal variations in farmland rents and its drivers in rural China”.
Here are some reviews concerning the content, according to the different sections
For international readers, you can include hectares or square kilometers as units of measure, you can keep both “Here, we investigate the extent of plot….”. Switch to formal writing.
Explain more about the rental system in the region at different scales.
Who collects the rent, the government, or the owners of the parcels?
Better explain the relationship between farmland rent, parcel rent, land transfer, and the pricing mechanism. That should be very well explained.
Figure 1. Label the small map. Is that China??
Table 1 is a result, relocate it. Could you make a map detailing the variables shown? Explain more all elements of the table. For instance,
- “Type of land transfer; renting out=1, other=0”; specific “other”
- “Land certification; yes=1, no=0”; what is the meaning “Land certification”, etc.
The methodology section should be more extensive. There is a lack of detail of the process, techniques, and tools shown in the Result section. (VIF, element of table 2, etc….). Try to connect more the methodology section with results.
“Then, farmland rent was divided into three grades by manual classification with the help of grading colors…”. Support why did you use manual classification. You could use a scientific technique (natural breaks).
Explain better in methodology, support more. “The multilevel model was used to identify the key driving factors of differences in farmland rent. Before the empirical simulation, it is necessary to adopt the variance inflation factor (VIF) to test the collinearity between independent variables. The results show that the VIF of a single variable is less than 3.1 and the comprehensive VIF of all variables is less than 3, indicating that there is no serious collinearity problem between the variables. Additionally, Rho is 0.113, which indicates that a multilevel model should be chosen. Table 2 presents the empirical results of different models. Model 1 is a null model without any variables, which is mainly used to judge the goodness-of-fit of the model. Model 2 is based on model 1, adding the plot-level factors and regional factors. Model 3 and model 4 are fixed effect……”
Table 2. Correct the reference, explain the entire table 2. It has no label
Discuss more "Limitation of Research"
Make a map of the 3,547 parcels of land. It is very important to know the spatial distribution. Explain more about Why did you choose them? What was the criteria? Are they representative?
Discuss more the econometric model mentioned in the conclusions section, relate it to the drivers included in your article.
Note (this is not necessary, it is just curiosity):
I do not know, as a recommendation, it could be complemented by mentioning climatic factors and location above sea level, these variables would affect the cost of rent?
Author Response
Dear reviewer，
Thank you very much for reviewing our manuscript and for giving us an opportunity to revise it. We really appreciate your positive and constructive comments and suggestions, which are very helpful to improve our manuscript.
In this revision, we have addressed all comments. The revision has been re-organized to clearly defined and show its novelty and objective. In addition, the result and discussion sections have been improved enclosed into our detailed response. Revised contents are marked using the “Track Changes” function of Microsoft Word in our revised manuscript. Please see the attachment.
Thank you for your review again.
Author Response File: 
Author Response.docx
Reviewer 2 Report
The article presents research on the factors influencing the variability of farmland rents in the territory of China.
The title suggests conducting research at the plot level (it is true that only at this level were these data obtained). The content of the article also presents the regional level analyse. I suggest bringing the title of the article in this respect to the actual content of the research.
Abstract: “Nowadays, farmland rent in rural China has shown an obvious irrational upward trend and there is a phenomenon of overcapitalization of farmland. The government should take measures to prevent the "non-grain" and "non-agri cultural" use of the farmland caused by the continuous increase of land rent "
Such statements should not be included in the abstract. The first sentence is a subjective opinion of the authors, because the study did not include an analysis of the reasons for making decisions about the purchase or lease of land. The second is one of the conclusions, but not the direct result of the research. However, the abstract should present the most important results and key conclusions.
It is difficult, even at the discussion stage, to talk about an irrational trend in terms of rent increases. Such changes always result from specific reasons, even if they appear to be economically unjustified by the benefits resulting from the potential or actual income from cultivating the land. Moreover, the variability of agricultural product prices over time is very large and lease terms are likely to be long.
In the introduction, it is worth introducing readers from other countries than China to the specificity of the Chinese agricultural real estate market. What does land ownership and the free market circulation of land and its lease look like? Are there any relevant regulations and legal provisions in this respect? Are land and lease rates subject to free determination between the parties to the transaction? Are the lease rates fixed annually or are they constant over the long term? How long are the rent contracts most often? What is land certification?
Why was the soil quality, a key factor for profitability of production and yielding not included in the analysis? With a strong correlation between the quality of land and its productivity and income, it could be the main (not area of plot) factor explaining the volatility of rental prices. Why do the authors analyze many factors, ignoring the most important factor from the farm owner's point of view? The authors absolutely must explain the fact that the most important feature of the land (quality (soil type)) was not included in the analysis. Differences in the yield of the same crop on a plot of the same area may differ by several dozen percent, even more deciding on the high income or loss obtained.
Description of chapter 3.3, referring to Figure 5, uses the 'net income' values ​​that do not appear in this form on the charts (there is net profit, but with completely different values ​​than those given in the text). The values ​​presented in the graph should be discussed or the missing 'net income' data added to the graph.
In the discussion, I miss an attempt to respond to the observed (according to the authors, irrational) increase in land rental prices. The population of the rural areas is declining, rent prices are rising above the achievable profits from agricultural production. Why, then, is the demand for land, the cultivation of which becomes unprofitable, not decreasing? The presented graphs show a negative income from grain cultivation since 2016, the difference between the grain crop and cash crop is very large, the level of profitability in the cultivation of cereals even in the best year was ten times lower than related to cash crop. Why, then, is there not a drastic retreat from unprofitable grain cultivation? Do landowners in China have complete freedom in choosing the direction of cultivation. It is difficult to imagine the long-term phenomenon of incurring losses in agricultural production. Agricultural profitability is fluctuating, which is typical of agriculture in general, but showing no profitability over the long term is worrying.
It is not good that the data ends in 2020. The world price of cereals has generally increased by around 50% since begeening of 2020 to the present, e.g. for wheat or rice. The dynamic observed increase in the price of grain, which is permanent as in the phrase (for now), may partially correspond to the rising rent prices. Even so, the data on the chart showing the persistent unprofitability of production seem strange.
The authors indicate the plot area as the main (among the analyzed) factors influencing the lease price. This should indicate the need to implement land consolidation projects (which generally significantly increase the average plot area), which is not included in the discussion and conclusions
Author Response
Dear reviewer，
Thank you very much for reviewing our manuscript and for giving us an opportunity to revise it. We really appreciate your positive and constructive comments and suggestions, which are very helpful to improve our manuscript.
In this revision, we have addressed all comments. The revision has been re-organized to clearly defined and show its novelty and objective. In addition, the result and discussion sections have been improved enclosed into our detailed response. Revised contents are marked using the “Track Changes” function of Microsoft Word in our revised manuscript. Please see the attachment.
Thank you for your review again.
Author Response File: Author Response.docx
Round 2
Reviewer 2 Report
The authors responded in detail to all comments included in the review, making a number of significant corrections and supplements. The result is an improved version of the manuscript suitable for publication.
