Investigating the Nonlinear Effect of Land Use and Built Environment on Public Transportation Choice Using a Machine Learning Approach

Understanding the relationship between the demand for public transportation and land use is critical to promoting public-transportation-oriented urban development. Taking Beijing as an example, we took the Public Transportation Index (PTI) during the working day’s early peak hours as the dependent variable. And 15 land use and built environment variables were selected as the independent variables according to the “7D” built environment dimensions. According to the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP), the size and shape of the spatial units will affect the aggregation results of the dependent variable and the independent variables. To find the ideal spatial unit division method, we assess how well the nonlinear model fits several spatial units. Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) was utilized to investigate the nonlinear effects of the built environment on PTI and threshold effects based on the ideal spatial unit. The results show that (1) the best spatial unit division method is based on traffic analysis zones (TAZs); (2) the top four explanatory variables affecting PTI are, in order: mean travel distance, residential density, subway station density, and public services density; (3) there are nonlinear relationships and significant threshold effects between the land use variables and PTI. The priority regeneration TAZs were identified according to the intersection analysis of the low PTI TAZs set and the PTI-sensitive TAZs set based on different land use variables. Prioritized urban regeneration TAZs require targeted strategies, and the results of the study may provide a scientific basis for proposing strategies to renew land use to increase PTI.