Spatiotemporal Distribution of Cultural Heritage in Relation to Population and Agricultural Productivity: Evidence from the Ming-Qing Yangtze River Basin

As a carrier of civilization, cultural heritage reflects the dynamic relationship between humans and their environment within specific historical contexts. During the Ming and Qing Dynasties (1368–1912 CE), the Yangtze River Basin was one of the most prominent regions for economic and cultural activities in ancient China. The cultural heritage of this period was characterized by its dense distribution and continuous evolution. Considering the applicability bias of modern data in historical interpretation, this study selected four characteristic variables: population density, agricultural productivity, technological level, and temperature anomaly. A hierarchical Bayesian model was constructed and change points were detected to quantitatively analyze the driving mechanisms behind the spatiotemporal distribution of cultural heritage. The results show the following: (1) The distribution of cultural heritage exhibited a multipolar trend by the mid-period in both Dynasties, with high-density areas contracting in the later period. (2) Agricultural productivity consistently had a significant positive impact, while population density also had a significant positive impact, except during the mid-Ming period. (3) The cultural calibration terms, which account for observational differences resulting from the interaction between cultural systems and environmental variables, exhibited slight variations. (4) The change point for population density was 364.83 people/km², and for agricultural productivity it was 2.86 × 10⁹ kJ/km². This study confirms that the differentiation in the spatiotemporal distribution of cultural heritage is driven by the synergistic effects of population and resources. This provides a new perspective for researching human–land relations in a cross-cultural context.