Mathematics Serving Economics: A Historical Review of Mathematical Methods in Economics
Abstract
:1. Introduction
1.1. Mathematical Methods in Economics before 1838
1.2. Antoine Augustin Cournot and the Model of Oligopoly
1.3. Hermann Heinrich Gossen and the Utility Laws
2. Applications of Mathematics within the Neoclassical School
2.1. William Stanley Jevons and the Development of Utility Theory
2.2. Alfred Marshall and the Differential Definition of Marginal Utility
2.3. Francis Ysidro Edgeworth and the Mathematical Description of Indifference Curves
3. Mathematics as a Fundamental Source of Research Methods for the Mathematical School
3.1. Léon Walras and General Equilibrium Theory
3.2. Vilfredo Pareto and the Study of Wealth Distribution and the Concept of Efficiency in General Equilibrium Theory
4. Mathematical Methods and the Development of Economic Growth Theory
4.1. Harrod’s Growth Model (1939)
- Output (Y) is a function of capital (K):
- The marginal product of capital is constant. This implies that the marginal productivity of capital equals the average. Mathematically, this is expressed using the derivative:
- Capital is necessary for production:
- Investment equals total savings (S), which can also be expressed as the product of the savings rate s and output Y:
- Changes in capital are expressed as the difference between investment and depreciation:
- G: actual economic growth (actual growth rate)—the growth that actually occurs in the economy;
- : warranted economic growth (warranted growth rate)—the rate of output growth at which entrepreneurs do not change the level of investment, as they are confident about meeting future consumer demand;
- : natural economic growth (natural growth rate)—the rate of growth at which total demand in the economy equals potential supply.
- s—savings rate, the fraction of income that individual consumers and corporations allocate to savings;
- C—the amount of capital required to produce one unit of output, known as the capital–output ratio.
- —the portion of income that individuals and firms wish to save to ensure further development;
- —the amount of capital required to increase output by one unit.
4.2. Domar’s Growth Model (1946)
4.3. Solow–Swan Growth Model (1956)
- The growth rate of GDP is equal to the sum of the growth rates of knowledge and labor.
- The growth rate of GDP per capita is equal to the growth rate of knowledge.
4.4. Ramsey–Cass–Koopmans Growth Model (1965)
- —the rate of time preference (), where a higher value of indicates that households place greater value on current consumption;
- —the utility derived from per capita consumption;
- —the average number of members in a household.
4.5. Diamond Growth Model (1965)
- represents the income earned by a young person in period t;
- denotes the savings rate in period t;
- denotes the interest rate in period t.
- —then consumption is the same in both periods;
- —then consumption in the second period is higher than in the first;
- —then consumption in the second period is lower than in the first.
- —the derivative is 0, so the savings rate does not depend on the interest rate;
- —the savings rate function is decreasing;
- —the savings rate function is increasing.
4.6. Romer’s Learning-by-Doing Model (1986)
- —the production function for an individual firm;
- —the production function for the entire economy.
4.7. Lucas Growth Model (1988)
4.8. Mankiw–Romer–Weil Growth Model (1992)
- The level of knowledge in the economy and the labor force grow exogenously at constant rates of a and n, respectively.
- Both types of capital are depreciated at the same rate, denoted by .
- The fraction of income allocated to the accumulation of physical capital is denoted by , while represents the fraction of income allocated to the accumulation of human capital.
4.9. Nonneman–Vanhoudt Growth Model (1996)
5. Usefulness of Mathematical Methods in Economics: SWOT Analysis
5.1. Strengths
- Precision and Rigor: One of the primary benefits of mathematical methods is the precision they bring to economic theories. Mathematical models allow economists to define assumptions clearly and to derive results logically, minimizing ambiguity. This rigor helps in establishing more universally accepted frameworks for economic analysis.
- Quantitative Analysis: Mathematics enables the quantitative treatment of economic data, facilitating the measurement of variables like growth rates, inflation, or unemployment. This approach not only helps in making predictions but also in testing theoretical models against real-world data. In this way, mathematics contributes significantly to econometrics, a subfield that is critical to policy-making.
- Abstraction and Generalization: Mathematical models can abstract complex economic phenomena, enabling the formulation of general principles that apply across different contexts. For example, game theory, optimization models, and equilibrium analysis provide versatile tools to explain diverse economic interactions, from market competition to international trade dynamics.
- Predictive Power: Well-developed mathematical models such as the Solow–Swan or Keynesian growth models have been used to predict economic trends over time. When used correctly, these models can offer insights into future economic conditions, guiding policymakers and businesses in strategic decision-making.
- Comparative Analysis: Mathematics facilitates the comparison of different economic scenarios through the use of sensitivity analysis and optimization. Economists can simulate the effects of various policy decisions and assess the trade-offs, helping them select the best course of action under given constraints.
5.2. Weaknesses
- Oversimplification of Reality: One of the most significant drawbacks of mathematical models in economics is their reliance on simplified assumptions. While abstraction is necessary, many models assume perfect competition, rational agents, and constant returns to scale, which do not always align with real-world complexities. This often leads to criticism that mathematical models can be too detached from reality.
- Dependence on Data Quality: The reliability of any mathematical model depends on the quality of the data used. Inaccurate or incomplete data can lead to erroneous conclusions, undermining the model’s predictive capabilities. Moreover, data collection in economics is often subject to limitations such as measurement errors or unobserved variables.
- Limited Applicability to Social Factors: While mathematics is highly effective in explaining financial and market-based phenomena, it struggles to account for the social, political, and psychological factors that also shape economic behavior. Human irrationality, cultural differences, and institutional influences are challenging to quantify and often require qualitative methods.
- High Entry Barrier: The complexity of mathematical methods can serve as a barrier to entry for many economists who are not familiar with advanced mathematics. This limitation may create a divide between theoretical and applied economists, with the latter being more focused on practical issues that do not easily lend themselves to formal modeling.
5.3. Opportunities
- Integration with Computational Methods: Advances in computational power and machine learning offer new avenues for expanding the use of mathematical methods in economics. Models can now handle larger datasets, more complex scenarios, and non-linear relationships, which were previously difficult to manage. Computational economics represents an exciting frontier for future research, blending mathematical rigor with practical applicability.
- Policy-Making and Business Strategy: Mathematical models are increasingly used in policy-making, especially in areas like monetary policy, fiscal planning, and climate change economics. Businesses also employ mathematical tools for risk management, market forecasting, and pricing strategies. As economic problems become more complex, the demand for robust mathematical models is likely to grow.
- Interdisciplinary Applications: Mathematics allows for a fruitful exchange of ideas between economics and other fields such as physics, biology, and engineering. Concepts like network theory and stochastic processes, borrowed from other disciplines, are now applied to understand financial markets and global economic systems. This cross-pollination of ideas enhances both the scope and depth of economic research.
- Enhancing Data-Driven Decision Making: With the proliferation of big data, mathematical models are more relevant than ever. Economic decisions—whether made by governments, corporations, or individuals—can be increasingly informed by data analytics powered by advanced mathematical models. This presents an opportunity to create more nuanced, dynamic, and accurate predictions of economic behavior.
5.4. Threats
- Over-Reliance on Formalism: There is a risk that economics, by becoming too reliant on mathematical formalism, could lose sight of the broader social and philosophical questions it originally sought to address. Critics argue that focusing too heavily on mathematics may lead to a neglect of qualitative insights that are equally valuable in understanding economic phenomena. This issue has also been discussed in the field of physics, where concerns have been raised about the dominance of mathematical elegance over empirical validation. In Lost in Math: How Beauty Leads Physics Astray, Sabine Hossenfelder critiques how the pursuit of aesthetic principles like symmetry and elegance has led to a lack of empirical progress in areas such as string theory and supersymmetry, drawing parallels to the risks that other sciences, including economics, might face when they over-prioritize formalism at the expense of real-world relevance [69]. This issue highlights the need for a balanced approach where mathematical tools are used to complement, rather than overshadow, other analytical methods.
- Ethical Concerns: The use of mathematical methods can sometimes lead to technocratic decision-making, where policies are made based on abstract models that fail to consider their broader social implications. There is a growing concern about the ethical ramifications of applying mathematical models, particularly in areas like inequality and labor markets, where the models may fail to capture the full spectrum of human experiences. Another ethical issue arises from the potential for data manipulation. While mathematical models may be perfectly valid in themselves, they rely heavily on the quality and integrity of the data fed into them. If data are deliberately skewed or manipulated, the resulting analysis—even when derived through correct methods—can produce misleading conclusions. This poses a significant risk, as decision-makers might rely on these results to shape economic policies that ultimately harm certain populations or benefit only a select group. Ensuring transparency in data collection and model assumptions is therefore crucial to maintaining ethical standards in economic research and policy-making.
- Misinterpretation of Results: Mathematical models often produce results that are open to interpretation. Policymakers or businesses may misinterpret or oversimplify these results, leading to unintended consequences. For instance, a model might suggest a policy that works under idealized conditions but fails when applied to real-world, messy environments. One common misinterpretation, particularly by journalists or non-experts, is confusing correlation with causation. Just because two variables are mathematically correlated does not mean that one causes the other, yet this distinction is often overlooked, leading to misleading conclusions. This misinterpretation can result in the implementation of policies or strategies based on faulty assumptions, which may exacerbate existing problems rather than solve them.
- Model Fragility: Many mathematical models are fragile in the sense that slight changes in assumptions or input data can drastically alter their conclusions. This fragility makes models less robust in uncertain environments, particularly during economic crises or when dealing with novel, untested phenomena such as pandemics or rapid technological shifts.
5.5. Open Problems and Future Research
6. Discussion
7. Conclusions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
Abbreviations
GDP | Gross Domestic Product |
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Czerwinski, A. Mathematics Serving Economics: A Historical Review of Mathematical Methods in Economics. Symmetry 2024, 16, 1271. https://doi.org/10.3390/sym16101271
Czerwinski A. Mathematics Serving Economics: A Historical Review of Mathematical Methods in Economics. Symmetry. 2024; 16(10):1271. https://doi.org/10.3390/sym16101271
Chicago/Turabian StyleCzerwinski, Artur. 2024. "Mathematics Serving Economics: A Historical Review of Mathematical Methods in Economics" Symmetry 16, no. 10: 1271. https://doi.org/10.3390/sym16101271
APA StyleCzerwinski, A. (2024). Mathematics Serving Economics: A Historical Review of Mathematical Methods in Economics. Symmetry, 16(10), 1271. https://doi.org/10.3390/sym16101271