Seasonal and Year-Round Distributions of Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel) and Its Risk to Temperate Fruits under Climate Change
Abstract
:Simple Summary
Abstract
1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Databases Used in Modeling
2.1.1. Species Occurrence Data of B. dorsalis
2.1.2. Environmental Data
2.2. Protocol of MaxEnt Modeling
2.2.1. Background Selection
2.2.2. Parameter Set and Model Evaluation
2.2.3. Model Projection to Predict the Potential Distribution
2.3. Spatial Analyses for Quantifying the Area at Risk of Damage
3. Results
3.1. Model Evaluation
3.2. Current Potential Distributions
3.3. Future Changes in Suitable Areas
3.4. Risks to Global Fruit Production
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Supplementary Materials
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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RM | FC | Pred. Sets | Partial ROC | Omission Rate | AICc | Delta AICc | Weight AICc | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Seasonal | 3 | PH | Set 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 7422.17 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
1 | LQP | Set 2 | 0 | 0.04 | 7423.00 | 0.82 | 0.34 | |
Year-round | 1 | LQP | Set 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 1385.06 | 0.00 | 0.99 |
Seasonal | Year-Round | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Variable Name | Variable Description | Contribution (%) | Permutation Importance | Contribution (%) | Permutation Importance |
Bio1 | Annual mean temperature | 5.3 | 13.7 | 8.0 | 20.5 |
Bio2 | Mean diurnal temperature range | 27.2 | 32.3 | 57.7 | 26.9 |
Bio5 | Max temperature of warmest month | 2.6 | 0.8 | 5.0 | 11 |
Bio6 | Min temperature of coldest month | 1.6 | 8.4 | 19.4 | 30.9 |
Bio12 | Annual precipitation | 1.3 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 7.3 |
Bio13 | Precipitation of wettest month | 56.2 | 36.2 | 5.0 | 2 |
Bio14 | Precipitation of driest month | 5.9 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.4 |
Bio15 | Precipitation seasonality | - | - | - | - |
Seasonal | Year-Round | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Unsuitable | Low | Medium | High | Unsuitable | Low | Medium | High | |
Current | 248.74 | 11.83 | 11.66 | 5.11 | 270.35 | 3.21 | 1.91 | 1.86 |
SSP126-2040 | 242.24 | 12.58 | 13.83 | 8.69 | 268.46 | 4.01 | 2.77 | 2.10 |
SSP126-2060 | 241.08 | 12.81 | 14.26 | 9.19 | 268.32 | 4.12 | 3.07 | 1.83 |
SSP585-2040 | 240.13 | 13.16 | 14.43 | 9.63 | 267.96 | 4.20 | 2.57 | 2.60 |
SSP585-2060 | 236.79 | 13.30 | 15.03 | 12.21 | 268.07 | 4.13 | 2.72 | 2.41 |
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Dong, Z.; He, Y.; Ren, Y.; Wang, G.; Chu, D. Seasonal and Year-Round Distributions of Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel) and Its Risk to Temperate Fruits under Climate Change. Insects 2022, 13, 550. https://doi.org/10.3390/insects13060550
Dong Z, He Y, Ren Y, Wang G, Chu D. Seasonal and Year-Round Distributions of Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel) and Its Risk to Temperate Fruits under Climate Change. Insects. 2022; 13(6):550. https://doi.org/10.3390/insects13060550
Chicago/Turabian StyleDong, Zhaoke, Yitong He, Yonglin Ren, Guanjin Wang, and Dong Chu. 2022. "Seasonal and Year-Round Distributions of Bactrocera dorsalis (Hendel) and Its Risk to Temperate Fruits under Climate Change" Insects 13, no. 6: 550. https://doi.org/10.3390/insects13060550