Carbon Neutral Roadmap of Commercial Building Operations by Mid-Century: Lessons from China
Abstract
:1. Introduction
- How much historical emission abatement has been observed in commercial building operations?
- What are the projected carbon peaks contemplating the impacts of uncertainty?
- How can a step-wise carbon neutral roadmap by mid-century be illustrated?
2. Literature Review
- Carbon emissions areprojected including the impactsof uncertainty. Some studies have proposed static scenario analyses to show the future decarbonization of the building sector. However, few studies have considered the influence of uncertainty on the carbon peak status, especially in terms of commercial building operations. This study develops a dynamic scenario model to investigate the decarbonization approach in future commercial building operations by mid-century. Carbon emissions are characterized through the Kaya identity, and the potential scenarios are analyzed through Monte Carlo simulation.
- A step-wise carbon neutral roadmap is programed for future commercial building operations. After simulating the projected carbon emissions of different scenarios, a decarbonization roadmap, which leads to commercial building operations achieving net-zero emission status, is proposed. Additionally, to help commercial building operations to achieve this goal, energy benchmarks of the carbon neutral goal for future building operations were derived. Furthermore, steps including a set of low-carbon transition strategies to move towards net-zero emission status are suggested to assist commercial building operations to achieve carbon neutrality.
3. Materials and Methods
3.1. Emission Model of Commercial Building Operations
3.2. Past Emissions Abatement Evaluation
3.3. Dynamic Emission Scenario Analysis
3.4. Dataset
4. Results
4.1. Past Emissions Abatement in the Commercial Building Operations
4.2. Emissions Paths of Future Commercial Building Operations
5. Discussion
5.1. Steps to Carbon Neutrality of Future Commercial Building Operations
- i.
- Implement a higher level of energy-efficiency standards (206.19 MtCO2, 24.4%);
- ii.
- Increase the electrification level and the use of building-integrated photovoltaics in building operations (187.61 MtCO2, 22.2%)
- iii.
- Promote electricity decarbonization in building operations (282.30 MtCO2, 33.4%);
- iv.
- Develop carbon capture, utilization and storage, and carbon sinks in buildings (169.73 MtCO2, 20.1%).
5.2. Energy Benchmark of Future Commercial Building Operations to Be Carbon Neutral
5.3. Low Carbon Transition Strategies
- Implement a higher level of energy-efficiency standards in the design and use of walls, roofs, etc. [49]. Set a specific efficiency limitation for end-use energy equipment, including lighting, heating, ventilation, and air conditioning systems.
- Develop carbon capture, utilization, and storage technologies, such as new types of building materials and carbon sinks in buildings, including vertical forests.
- Develop nearly-zero energy building technologies and aim to achieve strict standards.
- Increase the electrification level and decarbonize electricity by developing and applying renewable energy to reduce the direct emissions [50].
- Develop low carbon technologies and practices in the service sector.
6. Conclusions
6.1. Main Findings
- Carbon emissions abatement of commercial building operations in 2001–2018 was 1460.85 (±574.61) MtCO2. This study characterized the carbon emissions from building operations via the emission assessment model built through the Kaya identity, and then past emission abatement was evaluated through index decomposition analysis. In general, the nationwide emissions abatement from building operations was 1460.85 (±574.61) MtCO2. Specifically, the emissions abatement levels in different periods were 211.13 (±159.61, 2001–2005), 391.40 (±159.61, 2006–2010), 539.49 (±159.61, 2011–2015), and 318.84 (±95.77, 2016–2018) MtCO2. Regarding intensity level, the emission abatement per floor space in the above four periods was 7.69 (±2.52) kgce·m−2·yr−1 for 2001–2005, 11.18 (±2.52) kgce·m−2·yr−1 for 2006–2010, 11.11 (±2.52) kgce·m−2·yr−1 for 2011–2015, and 8.72 (±2.52) kgce·m−2·yr−1 for 2016–2018. We are confident that continuous emissions abatement from commercial building operations will be significant.
- To achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, the commercial building operations should hit its emission peak in 2024 at 921.71 MtCO2. This study set the BAU scenario based on the emissions model applied in the past emissions abatement evaluation for the projected emissions from commercial building operations. Thereafter, the static emissions at the BAU level were modeled via a Monte Carlo simulation run 110,000 times. The dynamic emission scenario analysis shows that commercial building operations will achieve their carbon peak in 2039 (±5) at 1364 (±259) MtCO2 without effective intervention, which is a decade later than China pledged in the Paris Agreement. Furthermore, the sensitivity analysis proved that the energy-related carbon intensity and GDP per capita determine the uncertainty of the emission peak. In order to achieve carbon neutrality in commercial building operations by 2060, it is suggested that the commercial building operations should peak emissions in 2024 at a level of 921.71 MtCO2. To achieve this ambitious goal, measures such as implementing higher levels of energy-efficiency standards, increasing electrification levels and decarbonizing electricity, and developing carbon trading and carbon sinks in buildings should be considered to achieve the low carbon transition in commercial building operations.
- The energy benchmark of the future operation is recommended to be set at 299–446 Mtce. Moreover, there are double-control energy demand targets in the future operations, set through dynamic simulation under the BAU scenario (energy peak: 445.7 Mtce, peak time: 2045). In the positive energy benchmark scheme, the implementation probability is 43.01%, which is suggested to control the energy peak at 299.34 Mtce in 2034. The negative scheme would achieve the energy peak in 2049 with the peak value at 491.15 Mtce under an 83.86% implementation probability. Compared to the normal scheme, the positive scheme will achieve the energy peak 11 years earlier, with energy savings of 146.36 Mtce, and the negative scheme will demand additional energy of 45.45 Mtce and the peak time will be delayed by 4 years.
6.2. Forthcoming Studies
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Symbol | Factor | Unit | Distribution of Random Value |
---|---|---|---|
Population | Billion persons | N (0, 0.08) | |
GDP per capita | 1000 USD·person−1 | N (0, 0.20) | |
Industrial structure | % | N (0, 0.05) | |
Industrial efficiency of the service industry | m2·1000 USD−1 | N (0, 0.10) | |
Energy intensity | kgce·m−2 | N (0, 0.17) | |
Energy-related carbon intensity | kgCO2·kgce−1 | N (0, 0.20) |
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Zhang, S.; Xiang, X.; Ma, Z.; Ma, M.; Zou, C. Carbon Neutral Roadmap of Commercial Building Operations by Mid-Century: Lessons from China. Buildings 2021, 11, 510. https://doi.org/10.3390/buildings11110510
Zhang S, Xiang X, Ma Z, Ma M, Zou C. Carbon Neutral Roadmap of Commercial Building Operations by Mid-Century: Lessons from China. Buildings. 2021; 11(11):510. https://doi.org/10.3390/buildings11110510
Chicago/Turabian StyleZhang, Shufan, Xiwang Xiang, Zhili Ma, Minda Ma, and Chenchen Zou. 2021. "Carbon Neutral Roadmap of Commercial Building Operations by Mid-Century: Lessons from China" Buildings 11, no. 11: 510. https://doi.org/10.3390/buildings11110510