1. Introduction
Concrete is a vital material widely used in modern construction, which consists of fine and coarse aggregates, cement, water, and admixtures [
1]. Nevertheless, concerns over global warming have underscored the need to reduce carbon dioxide (CO
2) emissions, primarily attributed to cement production. In fact, each ton of produced ordinary Portland cement (OPC) releases around one ton of CO
2 [
2]. Additionally, the disposal of construction and demolition waste poses serious environmental issues [
3,
4]. Thus, the requirement of both green construction and sustainability in the construction industry demands new materials [
5,
6]. In response to these concerns, researchers have explored sustainable and eco-friendly solutions such as geopolymer cement. This type of cement is produced from raw materials containing aluminosilicate such as fly ash (FA), ground granulated blast furnace slag (GGBFS), and metakaolin, treated with alkali and alkali silicates [
7]. Geopolymer concrete (GPC) reduces CO
2 emissions by 80% and is more cost-effective since it utilizes industrial and agricultural wastes. Its use also reduces the quantity of wastes sent to landfill sites, benefiting the natural ecosystem [
8]. Furthermore, GPC has shown superior mechanical properties compared with conventional OPC-based concrete, including higher compressive strength (CS) and split tensile strength (ST), as well as better resistance to acid, fire, and high temperature. Geopolymerization, a fundamental chemical process integral to the formation of GPC, unfolds through distinct stages. Firstly, the aluminosilicate constituents are dissolved, resulting in the release of aluminate and silicate monomers such as Al(OH)
4 and Si(OH)
4. These monomers then undergo condensation, forming initial gels through sharing of oxygen atoms, resulting in mono cross-linked systems. In the final step, the initial gels undergo polycondensation, transforming into geopolymer gels. The process of geopolymerization is a vital step in the production of GPC, representing an eco-friendly alternative to conventional concrete [
8].
FA, a byproduct of coal combustion, has been utilized for many years as a partial replacement for OPC [
9]. Because of its aluminous and siliceous composition, FA can form a compound similar to OPC when mixed with water and lime. This makes it a suitable material for blended cement, mosaic tiles, and hollow blocks [
10]. FA has lower embodied energy compared with other pozzolanic precursors such as metakaolin and GGBFS [
11]. Moreover, FA has a good solidification effect on heavy metal pollutants, making it suitable to be used as an alternative cementitious material in concrete [
12]. Amid the growing environmental concerns and the demand for sustainable construction materials, there has been a noteworthy rise in interest in FA-based GPC in the construction industry. GPC is produced by treating raw materials rich in aluminosilicates with alkali and alkali silicates. The process not only reduces CO
2 emissions but also exploits industrial or agricultural wastes. FA-based GPC ensures high strength, lower exploitation of natural resources, and low CO
2 emissions, making it an innovative and sustainable alternative to conventional concrete systems.
Optimizing the mix design of GPC proves to be a complex task, given the involvement of numerous parameters, including the types and concentrations of silicates, replacement material used for cement, admixtures, curing conditions, and curing time. Traditional experimental procedures for achieving optimal results are labor-intensive and time-consuming, requiring extensive laboratory-based experiments and significant resources. Therefore, the development of time- and cost-effective techniques to determine the correct proportions of constituents required for GPC formulations is necessary. These techniques can help streamline the optimization process and enhance the overall sustainability of the construction industry.
In recent years, machine learning (ML) techniques have been increasingly employed in civil engineering, among other fields, to drive advancements and contribute to societal progress. Traditional methods for predicting the mechanical properties of concrete relied on mathematical and statistical forecasting, along with non-linear prediction methods. However, the development of ML techniques has revolutionized the creation of accurate and reliable models for addressing civil engineering problems [
13]. ML processes, rooted in natural phenomena, are implemented via various techniques such as the genetic algorithm (GA), genetic programming (GP), gene expression programming (GEP), multi-expression programming (MEP), adaptive neuro-fuzzy interface (ANFIS), fuzzy logic (FL), grey wolf optimization (GWO), random forest regression (RFR), artificial neural networks (ANNs), and support vector machine (SVM) [
14]. Leveraging the pattern recognition capabilities of ML, these techniques produce simplified models of intricate patterns, facilitating the optimization of the mix design of GPC [
15,
16]. ML-based approaches offer a time and cost-effective alternative by minimizing the dependence on extensive laboratory-based experiments, which typically involves substantial resources such as materials, time, and labor.
Several studies have utilized ML techniques to estimate the mechanical properties of various kinds of concrete. Khan et al. [
17] proposed a GEP-based model to predict CS of FA-based GPC. The results were in a good agreement with the experimental investigations considered in the study. In addition, parametric analysis was performed to demonstrate that the developed model takes into account the underlying physical relationship in the considered system. Chu et al. [
18] utilized GEP and MEP algorithms for the prediction of CS of FA-based GPC. It was concluded that the GEP-based model has a higher correlation coefficient (
R) and minimal statistical errors compared with MEP. Similarly, Khan et al. [
19] applied GEP and RFR algorithms to predict CS of FA-based GPC. It was reported that RFR outperformed GEP by giving a higher
R value and minimal statistical errors, while GEP provided a simple empirical equation to estimate CS of GPC. Following this, Khan et al. [
20] established numerous prediction models for the prediction of FA-based GPC by employing ANN, ANFIS, and GEP. The three models met the verification criterion proposed in the literature. However, the GEP-based model was considered ideal and robust because it provided a simple mathematical formulation and a higher generalization capability compared with others. Recently, Zhang et al. [
21] proposed a hybrid RFR-GWO-XGBoost algorithm for predicting CS of GPC. The results were compared with stand-alone RFR and XGBoost models to display the supremacy of the proposed methodology. The GEP algorithm was utilized by Iqbal et al. [
2] to estimate CS, ST, and elastic modulus of waste foundry sand (WFS)-based green concrete. GEP-based results were compared with linear and non-linear regression models to validate the proposed models. In another study, Iqbal et al. [
16] applied MEP to predict ST and modulus of elasticity of WFS-based concrete. Both studies involved model validation and parametric studies to exhibit the accurate prediction of the systems under consideration. Meanwhile, the concrete strength comprising rice husk ash was evaluated by employing ANN in [
22]. The Bayesian ANN technique was exploited to determine the strength of alkali-activated GPC comprising FA and bottom ash [
8]. Shahmansouri et al. [
23] incorporated natural zeolite and silica fume in ground GGBFS-based GPC to evaluate their effects on CS and developed an ANN prediction model for its mechanical properties. Peng and Unluer [
24] assessed the performance of numerous ML algorithms for predicting CS of GPC incorporating waste glass powder and slag. Their results indicated that the support vector regression and random forest models outperformed the other algorithms applied in the study. It was further concluded that the addition of waste glass powder and slag improved CS of GPC. Ahmad et al. [
25] utilized ANNs to develop a model for predicting the strength of GPC incorporating waste ceramic tiles and quarry dust as a partial replacement for fine aggregates. The ANN model illustrated better accuracy in predicting compared with traditional statistical models.
The review of the above-mentioned studies reveals that the modeling of CS was the primary focus of the published studies. These modeling efforts have largely overlooked ST of GPC, which is a crucial property that influences the performance, durability, and applicability of FA-based GPC in various construction scenarios. The majority of the studies have predominantly used ANNs, support vector regression models, XGBoost, and others. While these algorithms are more accurate than evolutionary algorithms, they do not provide simple mathematical formulations, which limit their utility for other researchers. Meanwhile, most of the aforementioned studies are restricted to smaller databases than what is typically used for a comprehensive analysis. It is worth noting that increasing the number of datasets improves the quality of ML-based models.
This research work seeks to address the above-mentioned gaps by developing prediction models utilizing the GEP and MEP algorithms to predict CS () and ST () of GPC containing FA as a binder. For this purpose, a comprehensive database was collated from internationally published experimental results. Numerous combinations of input parameters were employed, and the results obtained from both algorithms were compared. The performance of the developed models was assessed using parametric and comprehensive statistical analyses. The accuracy and reliability of the models were validated with the experimental data. The significance of this study lies in its exploration of ML models, which have not been extensively utilized in the context of GPC. This study provides valuable insights into the applicability and accuracy of GEP and MEP for predicting the mechanical properties of GPC via simple mathematical formulations. The practical application potential of the developed models is evident in their ability to guide engineers and practitioners in selecting optimal GPC formulations, reducing material waste, and promoting the use of eco-friendly alternatives in the construction industry.
6. Parametric Analysis
Based on the mentioned analysis, the GEP-based models are finalized for predicting CS and ST of GPC. In this regard, the GEP-based prediction models developed were further validated through a parametric analysis utilizing a Python code. The average values of all the input parameters were fixed, and the effect of varying one of the inputs on the mechanical properties was plotted, as depicted in
Figure 13 and
Figure 14.
Generally, an increase in the
FA content results in an increase in CS because of the pozzolanic reaction. This reaction leads to the formation of more calcium silicate hydrate (CSH) gel. The trend observed in this study illustrated that CS of GPC increased initially with increasing the
FA content, but after reaching an optimum point, it began to decrease, as depicted in
Figure 13a. This decrease could be attributed to the reduced workability of the mix resulting from an increase in the
FA content, leading to the improper compaction and weaker interfacial bonding between aggregates and paste. The activator, which is typically
NaSi, plays a crucial role in the development of the strength in GPC. As the amount of activator was increased, there was a noticeable enhancement in the strength of GPC, as shown in
Figure 13b. This was because the activator helped initiate the reaction between the alkaline solution and
FA. This reaction led to the formation of a geopolymer gel that bound the particles together. Therefore, a higher amount of activator could facilitate a more complete reaction, resulting in higher strength. However, it is important to note that beyond a certain point, increasing the amount of activator might not lead to further improvements in the strength and might even have a negative impact. The effect of
SP on CS of GPC was also investigated. The results indicated that the addition of
SP did not have a substantial effect on CS of GPC, as expressed in
Figure 13c. This suggests that the use of
SP in GPC mixtures may not be necessary and only impacts the workability of concrete.
The
Fagg content in GPC was observed to have a significant impact on its CS. It was seen that as the amount of
Fagg was increased, the strength of GPC decreased linearly, as exhibited in
Figure 13d. This trend can be attributed to the fact that the
Fagg components had a higher water absorption capacity and a lower specific gravity compared with the other components in the mix [
45]. As a result, an increase in the
Fagg content led to higher water demand and, subsequently, a weaker interfacial transition zone (ITZ) between aggregates and geopolymer matrix [
46]. This weaker ITZ resulted in a lower CS of GPC. The impact of the water content on the strength of GPC displayed in
Figure 13e implies that an increase in the water content led to a decrease in the strength of GPC. This can be ascribed to the fact that excess water content in the mix reduced the strength of the cementitious matrix and increased the porosity of GPC, which in turn reduced its strength.
The trend of
Cagg on CS of GPC is plotted in
Figure 13f, indicating that the strength of GPC increased linearly with an increase in the content of
Cagg. This is likely owing to the fact that increasing the amount of
Cagg led to better particle packing and improved interlocking, which resulted in higher strength. However, it should be mentioned that beyond a certain point, an increase in the
Cagg content might lead to a decrease in the strength because of the reduced workability and increased void content. Therefore, careful optimization of the amount of
Cagg is necessary to achieve the highest possible strength.
The combined impact of
FA,
Cagg, and water content on ST of GPC is also noteworthy, as summarized in
Figure 14a–c. Similar to CS, ST initially increased with an increase in the
FA and
Cagg contents up to a certain optimal level. However, ST decreased as the water content increased beyond a particular level. These trends highlight the importance of balancing the quantities of
FA,
Cagg, and water content in order to achieve the desired ST strength in GPC. It is essential to carefully consider the optimal proportions of these ingredients during the mixture design stage to achieve the desired strength properties of GPC. The GEP model demonstrated a high degree of accuracy in capturing the correlation between the input parameters and mechanical properties of GPC. The regression trend lines and absolute error plot depict that the GEP model’s predicted results were in close agreement with the experimental data. These findings suggest that the GEP models can be a reliable tool for predicting CS and ST of GPC, which can help optimize the material’s composition and design more durable structures.