Crafts and Their Social Imaginary: How Technological Development Shapes the Future of the Crafts Sector

Abstract

The crafts sector, traditionally characterized by its adherence to heritage and small-scale familial enterprises, confronts an array of unprecedented challenges stemming from rapid technological advancement, globalization, climate change, and shifting demographics. This article presents a pioneering investigation into the profound and transformative effects of digitalization on the crafts sector, offering novel insights into the future trajectory of this industry. Through an explorative approach, we critically examine and interrogate the social imaginary underpinning the crafts sector, shedding light on the intricate interplay between tradition and innovation. Leveraging an inter- and transdisciplinary framework, our research brings together academics, experts, and practitioners from diverse regions in Italy and Austria to explore the nexus of digitalization and craft futures. We introduce three future scenarios for the crafts sector, each delineating varying degrees of digitalization and their potential implications. Employing a mixed-method approach encompassing expert interviews, a Delphi survey, focus groups, and scenario development, our study offers a comprehensive exploration of the multifaceted landscape of craft futures. Furthermore, through the visualization of these scenarios, we provide a tangible platform for envisioning and engaging with the myriad possibilities that lie ahead. By synthesizing innovative methodologies from future studies and social imaginaries with a specific focus on the crafts sector, our research offers a robust analytical framework for navigating the complex dynamics of digitalization and envisioning transformative futures. This paper not only illuminates the disruptive forces unleashed by digitalization but also provides strategic insights to inform future decision-making processes within the crafts sector and beyond.

1. Introduction

Our whole global society is in a constant state of change, emergency, and overlapping ecological, economic, and social crises, leading to social, economic, and political polarization. The intensification of global interconnectedness for subjects, businesses, and countries has reshaped our planet. As a result of the financial crises in 2008, the COVID-19 pandemic, and now the Russian war in Ukraine, neoliberal globalization is now in a moment of “Great Unsettling” (Steger and James 2020), where volatility, disintegration, insecurity, inequality, degradation, and dislocation are intensified and threatening familiar life-worlds. In the frame of anti-globalization movements, globalization and deregulated markets are taking on a negative role, intensifying authoritarian nationalist-populist forces and social, economic, and political polarization. At the same time, the global imaginary, as proposed by Manfred Steger (2008) as the awareness of belonging to a global community, is changing its face to different degrees. Along with these changes, one of the most significant megatrends of our time is technological development, with digitalization rapidly destabilizing the current global social and economic systems, bringing deep transformations at multiple levels, also for enterprises and businesses, especially in the crafts sector, often considered more innovation-averse than others (Luckman 2015; Bell et al. 2021; Adamson 2013).

During the COVID-19 crisis, many enterprises, also in the crafts sector, were forced to close (Gourinchas et al. 2020; OECD 2020) because of their lack of technological adaptivity or flexibility. Others have survived because of their local networks and interconnectedness with local economies, their close work, and their relations with local entities at the regional level (Kofler and Marcher 2017; Viganò et al. 2023). This again has a polarizing effect on businesses in terms of local rootedness and connection to the local tradition on the one hand and being strongly affected by the effects of the global economy on the other hand. Also in Italy, even though the crafts sector has a long tradition and a strong image, it has difficulties surviving (Bonfanti et al. 2018).

In many countries, the crafts sector consists largely of small and medium enterprises (SMEs)—for instance, 26.8% of all firms in Germany (Zentralverband des Deutschen Handwerks 2017)—but they have an important impact on the local economy in terms of the labor market, as the businesses are often strongly locally embedded (Cooke 2004). The local embeddedness of these firms is often in contrast with the global interconnectedness of the neoliberal capitalistic system because SMEs are dependent on the developments of the market, such as growing energy and material costs. Since they are often small and medium sized, the crafts sector is not at the core of the business pyramid, even though it has an important impact. The crafts sector is a complex sector, combining tradition, cultural heritage, identity, skills, and design, representing on the one hand conservatism and traditionalism due to local connections to traditions, and on the other hand innovation and the future because of its creativity and economic importance (Luckman 2015). Moreover, the crafts sector’s promotion and market development rely on place-branding and identity, integrating historical ties and contemporary strategies. Craft firms leverage their heritage for differentiation and economic gain, attracting consumers and tourists through storytelling and place-based value construction (McHattie et al. 2018; Viganò et al. 2023).

In this paper, we want to shed light on the dynamics created by technological development, digitalization, and other megatrends such as globalization and demographic change affecting the crafts sector in the near future by combining different techniques from future studies and visualizing three different, possible scenarios, making this research unique and distinctive. This is only possible in considering the crafts imaginary in its broad diversity from tradition and local rootedness to future imaginaries and contemporary developments through an inter- and transdisciplinary approach focusing on the definition and invention of craft, the practice and materiality of the crafts sector, and the skills and competencies in relation to future technological developments (Adamson 2013; Luckman and Tower 2023). As well as demonstrated by Bell et al. (2021), the concept of the craft imaginary, rooted in the fusion of material and social aspects, explores the interplay between craft and authenticity across time. By integrating histories, traditions, places, and bodies, it not only transcends cultural and temporal boundaries but also fosters innovation, inclusivity, and disruption. Future-oriented craft imaginaries, characterized by creativity and adaptability to changing dynamics, provide an alternative to nostalgic notions of craft rooted in the past, enabling engagement with disruptive shifts in organizational, societal, and ecological realms.

Enhancing the craft imaginary approach with cutting-edge methods and theories from future studies not only provides academics, stakeholders, and practitioners with a structured framework for comprehending and navigating complexities but also represents a novel and original contribution to the field. By integrating diverse disciplines and methodologies, our research breaks new ground in exploring the intersection of craft, technological development, and digitalization, offering fresh insights into how these factors will shape the future of the crafts sector. This innovative approach enables us to identify emerging trends, anticipate disruptions, and collaboratively envision preferable futures, thereby positioning our research at the forefront of scholarship in both future studies and craft studies. Furthermore, our exploration of future imaginaries of craft goes beyond traditional conceptualizations, opening up new avenues of exploration and innovation that challenge existing paradigms and push the boundaries of our understanding. Through this interdisciplinary and imaginative approach, we not only shed light on the transformative potential of craft in society but also contribute to broader discussions on creativity, resilience, and sustainable development. In essence, our research represents a pioneering effort to harness the power of imagination and foresight in shaping a more inclusive, equitable, and sustainable future for the crafts sector and beyond. As Castoriadis (1987) famously noted, imagination is ‘where it all begins’, serving as an inexhaustible psychosocial force that propels organizations and sets the institutionalization process in motion. Harnessing the power of imagination allows us to unlock new possibilities, inspire transformative action, and shape the future we aspire to inhabit. Furthermore, visualizing future scenarios aids in imagining potential trajectories that anticipate forthcoming developments (Miller 2008). Our central research question aims therefore to explore possible future scenarios regarding the influence of technological development and digitalization on the crafts sector and its associated social imaginary.

2. The Crafts Sector and Its Challenges: Theoretical Background and Literature Review

A difficulty for the literature review was the lack of a common definition of “craft”, since it is defined in different ways in different regions depending on national laws and categorization (Glasl et al. 2008). In Germany and Austria, for example, companies are assigned to the crafts sector if the owner exercises a nationally recognized corresponding profession. In Austria, craft enterprises only need to be registered in the “Trade and Craft Division” of the national Chamber of Commerce following the current professional organizational order (Dürig and Weingarten 2019). In France and Italy, the sector to which the company belongs and its size determine whether it is classified as a craft or not. In Spain and Bulgaria, traditional, artistic handicraft activities tend to be classified as handicrafts. In Italy, a craft business is defined by a law from 1985: it has no more than 18 employees (in the case of manufacturing industries) or 32 employees (in the case of artistic handicraft), and, crucially, the owner must be a crafts(wo)man herself/himself. This means that she/he actively partakes in the company’s business, which includes manual labor and production processes. Moreover, she/he must have overall business responsibility and liability.

Crafts are highly related to individual production, but also to administrative and legal independence combined with a high proportion of manual work (Dürig and Weingarten 2019; Müller et al. 2011). One of the most utilized definitions of functional crafts dates back to the 1949 “rencontres de St. Gall”: “Handicraft is self-employment directed towards the satisfaction of individualized needs through performances which are a result of the personality of the entrepreneur of the enterprise, his extensive professional training and the regular use of his personal means and powers” (Müller et al. 2011, p. 4). This definition relates to both the individual work of the craftspeople as defined by Sennett (2008) and to the practice-based activity, which is stressed by Reckwitz (2002), but also the materiality and relation to the body (Bell et al. 2021).

The crafts sector is connected to both the creative and manufacturing sectors (Luckman and Tower 2023), and for centuries, it has been the only producing trade. In ancient Greece, with the positive picture of Prometheus as the mythical archetype of the craftsman, there was a hierarchization of activities, where the work with nature was performed by the farmer (praxis) and the instrumental work with nature was performed by the craftsman (poiesis) (Böhle et al. 2018). Until industrialization, crafts were the most important production mode and performed mainly by hand; as they evolved, the creative activity became increasingly important: designers now, for instance, produce prototypes and unique pieces (Bühler et al. 2019).

The many definitions of crafts cover a wide variety of considerations, including the historical dimension, the creative dimension, and the technological and social dimension (Glasl et al. 2008). Although a dynamic definition is lacking, Zhan et al. (2017) have identified some principal characteristics: specialized and tacit knowledge; localization that focuses mainly on local entities; ethics and authenticity (because of the freedom to manipulate materials and tools); and finally, the continuation of tradition, as they embody culture and tradition, skills, and knowledge and are transmitted from generation to generation.

Skills and knowledge are therefore strongly related to both the business and the personal identity of craftspeople. Considering this aspect, people working in the crafts sector can be defined as talents. This term is also associated with several meanings based on different factors, such as level of education or certain skills. A technical synonym for talent is, for example, a “highly skilled worker”. Even though official statistics and international organizations such as the OECD or the ILO consider education level foremost when referring to talent, many different definitions in the literature consider talent as “the sum of a person’s abilities, his or her intrinsic gifts, skills, knowledge, experience, intelligence, judgment, attitude, character, and drives. It also includes his or her ability to learn and grow” (Michaels et al. 2001, p. xii), or “essentially, talent means the total of all the experience, knowledge, skills and behaviors that a person has and brings to work” (Cheese et al. 2007). Following these considerations, skilled or talented workers are persons with high practical expertise and can be considered highly skilled even without a university degree. This is crucial for the crafts sector, as generally crafts are considered a practice-based sector where skills are learned through experience in everyday work life (Reckwitz 2002; Schatzki 2002; Adamson 2013).

Moreover, the crafts sector also has a central role linked to the social imaginary of the locally rooted work of traditional crafts sectors in order to preserve cultural heritage (Viganò et al. 2023). In Manfred Steger’s (2008) definition, the social imaginary has different layers of meanings: ideas (beliefs expressed by individuals), ideologies (comprehensive belief systems as collated and patterned ideas claiming truth), and imaginaries (convocations of the social whole framing the different ideological constatations). Thus, the social imaginary is defined not only by ideas, but also by practices relating to the meanings and traditions of the past (James 2019). The resurgence of the craft imaginary, precipitated by countercultural movements in the 1960s and 1970s and further accentuated by mounting environmental and social concerns, endures despite challenges like the 2008 global financial crisis, illustrating its resilience in offering alternative narratives and contesting prevailing social constructs (Bell et al. 2021; Luckman 2015). Therefore, we define the social imaginary of the crafts sector as the way that people can think of or imagine the whole sector in terms of ideas, practices, and meanings, oriented towards the past and the future imaginary. The craft imaginary emphasizes the tangible aspects of craft production and consumption, highlighting the historical and organizational frameworks that support them and serving as a distinct cultural marker grounded in materiality and social interaction (Bell et al. 2021). In that sense, the craft imaginary also enables the formation of collective visions of desirable futures (Bell et al. 2021). But, as shown by Überbacher et al. (2020), because of the relation to traditions in the crafts sector, there is often difficulty thinking about the future and, in general, thinking about technological development. The often small and local businesses of the crafts sector that are locally rooted and embedded may have different (often normative) social imaginaries than those of big corporations acting at a global level.

For craftspeople, it is important to consider the consequences the traditional image of the sector has on an individual level in terms of personal and professional identity. Driven by the idea of the knowledge economy, where the educational degree is one of the most important characteristics, it seems that only “highly skilled” or “highly creative” people are considered the drivers for innovative and creative economies and economic growth (Florida et al. 2016). As shown by Richard Sennett (2008), there is a risk of excluding a large group of people that have much expertise and practice-based knowledge if only academically highly qualified people are considered. This affects the crafts sector because the skills and competencies of craftspeople rely on the expertise of their everyday work, which is difficult to quantify. Furthermore, it seems that these workers are not considered experts (or talents), because they are not part of the (highly skilled with a high education degree) elite (Sennett 2008). For the crafts sector, this seems to be an important issue, which is also related to their personal and business identity and the overall image of the sector. In that sense, Klamer (2019) claims to use a value-based approach that encourages seeing crafts as a shared practice with the continuation of the practice as a purpose in itself, as the value of craftspeople lies in the practice of their craft and their embodiment of their cultural heritage (Yang et al. 2018; Bell et al. 2021). Crafts are embedded in a local and cultural context; changes in crafts and their practices bring consequences and changes to the cultural and social context (Viganò et al. 2023). The crafts sector is therefore not only relevant for itself, but it also requires the involvement, participation, and contribution of many others and can therefore be considered a social process, as, for example, art is defined by Becker (1974). There is a need to have a broader perspective on crafts, extending the issues beyond traditional and artistic crafts to include new technologies, digitalization processes, and design (Giuliano 2019).

Concerning the future of crafts, we can observe that the world of crafts is in continuous and dynamic change, simultaneously combining tangible resources (techniques, materials, manual skills, and knowledge) and an intangible heritage (traditions and culture). Most enterprises in this sector are SMEs, furthermore often micro-businesses (less than 10 employees) and family owned, and may therefore have greater difficulties in responding to future developments such as digitalization and technological progress (Überbacher et al. 2020). While, on the one hand, they can be more flexible than bigger companies, on the other hand, their goals are often more focused on emotional and traditional values than on finance, and their local and management structures often require much time and resources to keep up to date, making them more innovation-averse. In their study, Überbacher et al. (2020) show that while some firms are very willing to innovate, other, less digitalized firms are aware of the importance of innovation but are constrained by significant challenges. But finally, they manage to combine conventional craftmanship knowledge with innovative technologies. The main future challenges for the crafts sector are cultural and social, related to a broader social imaginary; and practical and tangible, related to education and training, knowledge, development of digital and technological competencies and skills, digitalization of processes (as, for example, “Building Information Modeling—BIM”), the lack of financial and human resources, sustainability, and globalization (Ax 1997; Dürig and Weingarten 2019; Glenn 2019; Thomä and Zimmermann 2016; Welzbacher et al. 2015).

In times of crisis, imagination is crucial to distinguishing the past from the future and how the different futures might be, as well as for the craft imaginary (Bell et al. 2021). Futures literacy and the competence of anticipation (Miller 2008) allow one to imagine different possible futures and even have the ability to think about the future at all. In the crafts sector, futures literacy aims to support the social imaginary of the sector. Thinking about the future helps in the visualization of solutions for possible challenges and, in general, prepares people for eventualities. Obtaining a better picture of developments using future scenarios can reduce anxiety, make the future at least imaginable, and prepare people for handling complexity (Miller 2008). Therefore, the distinguishing goal of this article is to create various scenarios with which craftspeople and stakeholders can imagine possible futures using different visualizations to help and support anticipation. The term “scenario” can be a misunderstood word that is often misused and has many meanings (Mietzner and Reger 2004). This paper does not interpret a scenario as a projection of singular variables into the future, but rather as a complex interaction of multiple variables that are connected to each other and influence each other. Even within the futures literacy literature, many different definitions and uses of scenarios exist, but most of them agree on the central characteristics of a scenario: it should represent a possible and plausible future situation, and it should show the development trajectory and how this future came into existence (Kosow and Gaßner 2008).

3. Research and Methods

There are many ways to build and use future scenarios. It is therefore crucial for a scenario project to choose the techniques with respect to the research goal and question. The research project aimed to look at craftspeople in a digitalized future. Although this one megatrend was the focus of the study, other interfering megatrends have an effect that needs to be addressed as well, such as climate change, an aging demographic, and globalization. This rather complex network of intertwining trends and effects needs to be addressed in a multilayered research process. The process of creating future scenarios can be roughly divided into two phases (Bishop et al. 2007; Goodier et al. 2010; Gracht 2008; Walton et al. 2019): first, a survey of the current situation (scanning) and second, foresight—the development of future scenarios. For part of the scanning of the current situation, we used a mixed methods approach (Creswell 2007), combining qualitative interviews with experts in the field, a real-time Delphi survey, and focus groups with experts and practitioners. In the second phase, we developed future scenario-based discussions with entrepreneurs and experts using the Manoa Method (Schultz 2015). In the following, we will first briefly present the project itself and then the different techniques used to develop the scenarios.

3.1. The Case of South Tyrol, Veneto (Italy), and the Salzburg Region (Austria)

This article is based on a research project conducted in two countries, Italy and Austria, and three different regions, namely the region of Veneto, the Autonomous Province of Bozen-Bolzano in Italy, and the region of Salzburg in Austria. In these regions, SMEs in the crafts sector are particularly numerous, with a total of 157,389 active firms in 2021 (Statstica Regione Veneto 2022; WIFO Institut für Wirtschaftsförderung 2021; WKO 2022); they represent an important economic role, also in terms of employment and labor markets. Moreover, trade associations have an important role in circulating and producing knowledge, as well as in the innovation process (Kofler and Marcher 2017). The project was set up by different partners to bring together scientific and practical knowledge: a regional research institution in South Tyrol, two trade associations in the region of South Tyrol and Veneto, and two regional consulting agencies specializing in technological transfer in Salzburg and Vicenza.

The overall objective of the three-year research project was to understand what the craft trades of the future could look like and what technologies might be used in which sectors. Furthermore, the project wanted to assess which skills will be required in a digitalized crafts sector in the future and how job profiles will change with progressing digitalization. The defining of possible future scenarios and job profiles in the crafts sector should help craft entrepreneurs in their future projections and planning. With increasing awareness of the development of the craft business of the future, craftspeople can be inspired and motivated to think about their own future and what directions their activities could take in an increasingly polarized field of work. The paper’s unique contribution lies in its transdisciplinary approach and close collaboration with practitioners to develop future scenarios, providing a comprehensive and practical framework for understanding and navigating the complexities of the craft sector’s digitalization.

3.2. Expert Interviews

At first, the project partners from the research regions were asked to name nine experts from different areas: the crafts sector, the innovation and digital sector, the business development or educational sector, and academia (

Table 1. Participants and field of expertise—expert interviews.

Expert Interviews	Field of Expertise
Expert 1	Education
Expert 2	Digital craftsmenship, ICT
Expert 3	SMTEs and international relations
Expert 4	Social partnerships and digitalization
Expert 5	Technologies and innovation
Expert 6	Education
Expert 7	Technologies and innovation
Expert 8	Technologies and innovation
Expert 9	HR management and entrepreneurship

). The semi-structured guided interviews were divided into three areas: (1) digital transformation and crafts/craft professions; (2) opportunities and challenges for craft professions due to digitalization; and (3) recommendations for action for future measures. The interviews were conducted in person and via telephone between December 2019 and January 2020. Five interviews were conducted in German and four in Italian. The interviews were subsequently transcribed and analyzed using GABEK/WinRelan^®. This software allows filtering out key concepts of the qualitative data to visualize the complex data material in network graphics, showing the interconnectivity between the concepts mentioned (Buber and Zelger 2000).

3.3. Delphi Survey

As a second step in the research design, we developed a questionnaire for a Delphi Study (Häder 2009) questioning international experts to include a variety of perspectives. The aim of the Delphi study was to define the effects of digitization on the crafts sector on a broader, international level. As part of a systematic, multi-stage survey procedure with feedback loops, participants were able to assess and discuss technical developments and trends in digitization. The survey featured the participation of several experts from different fields: crafts, digitization and innovative technologies, consulting, and education for SMEs (

Table 2. Panelists and field of expertise—Delphi survey.

Delphi Survey	Field of Expertise
Panelist 1–13	Technologies and innovation
Panelist 14–22	Education
Panelist 23–35	SMEs
Panelist 36–50	Digitalisation

). The international participants were defined together with the project partners. In the end, 50 valid questionnaires were analyzed. The survey was implemented as a real-time Delphi in spring 2020 using the software Calibrum; the participating experts could read and follow the opinions in the statements of other participants right from the start (Aengenheyster et al. 2017; Gnatzy et al. 2011; Gordon and Pease 2006). The statements for the Delphi survey were based on the results of the preceding expert interviews and the literature research and focused on the professions in the crafts sector, the skills needed for the future, challenges and opportunities, and measures required to ensure change. Participants were requested to indicate their level of agreement and likelihood regarding the statements.

3.4. Focus Groups

The third step aimed to combine the knowledge of the practical actors and the experts in the field of the crafts sector with the results of the previous research using focus groups. Focus groups are moderated and focused discussion groups of selected people (Morgan and Spanish 1984; Schulz 2012). The objective was to have a mutual exchange between the participants to identify areas of conflict and different opinions and ideas. We organized four focus groups with 33 participants based on the distinction of the three primary areas of the crafts sector in the project regions—construction, manufacturing, and service—along with one mixed group (

Table 3. Participants and field of expertise—focus groups.

Focus Groups	Field of Expertise
Focus group 1	7 craftspeople from the building and construction sector (Italian regions)
Focus group 2	7 participants from the building and construction sector (German regions)
Focus group 3	11 participants from the general services sector
Focus group 4	7 participants from the manufacturing sector

). Every partner was involved in the selection and contacting the participants. Each online discussion lasted about two hours and focused on the general developments of the professions in the crafts sector, technologies, skills, competencies, education, and vocational training. They were moderated by a researcher with the help of a semi-structured interview guideline.

3.5. Scenario Building

All the data gathered via previous, extensive literature research, together with the results of the expert interviews, the Delphi survey, and the focus group, built the basis for scenario building. For the creation of our future scenarios, we relied on the “Manoa method” developed by Wendy Schultz (2015). This specific scenario method explores “the primary and long-range impacts of emerging change” (Schultz 2015, p. 5). The scenario is hereby the outcome of the impacts of the most prominent megatrends (issues of change) in the research area. As a first step, therefore, in extensive literature research, we identified the four main issues of change that are having a profound impact on craftsmanship: digitalization, globalization, demographic change, and climate change. Although all four aspects play a pivotal role in the creation of the scenario, this project focused mainly on outlining the impact of digitalization on the crafts sector (while touching briefly on the other three). The megatrends hence have some common ground but still describe different—or, in Schultz’s words, “steep” (Schultz 2015, p. 5)—categories. For each of these issues of change, we collected the primary impacts they have on the crafts sector, which were then broken down further to also identify secondary impacts. The impacts of all issues of change were subsequently compared and clustered. This allowed the researchers to identify overlapping and interconnected impacts.

With the mapping and clustering of impacts, a first scenario (infant scenario) could be built. To provide a comprehensive overview of the diverse impacts, as a first step in a workshop, we carefully selected headings and keywords (such as competition versus collaboration) that succinctly captured the essence of each cluster, aiding in the delineation and concretization of every scenario, but also allowing us to differentiate them from each other. Our primary objective was to ensure that each scenario remained objective, consistent, and grounded in concrete details to be as close to reality as possible. Within the context of the project, together with the partners and practitioners, we decided to focus the data collection and scenario building on different key dimensions: the broader crafts sector as a general overview and idea of the scenario, and in more detail the sectors of construction, manufacturing, and general services, as well as the development of competencies, skills, and training. In order to enhance the plausibility of our scenarios, we utilized both existing examples that already seem to develop in the direction of the scenario (drivers) and introduced fictitious craftspeople (personas) (Fergnani 2019), enriching the narrative and augmenting its relatability.

3.6. Scenario Illustrations

Future scenario illustrations serve as a valuable method for envisioning complex ideas quickly and effectively. By presenting a visually compelling narrative, they engage the viewers and convey the content of the scenarios that might be challenging to express through text alone. This enhances the understanding of the scenario among a broader audience, from experts to the general public. Furthermore, they provide the basis for brainstorming and ideation, encouraging individuals to think outside the box, outside their normal line of thinking. This creative process can inspire new solutions and approaches, aiding individuals and organizations in strategic planning and decision-making.

In order to communicate our scenarios in such a way, we contacted a professional scenario illustrator. In the first step, she familiarized herself with the contents of the scenarios, and the researchers highlighted the most important aspects of the content they wanted to convey in the illustration. Together with the illustrator, the graphical design and complexity of the illustrations were then discussed. In this step, it was important to also include the other project partners, as they work with craftspeople every day and know what connects to them. We decided on a slicker style, easy, and only with the most important information. Within a few feedback sessions, the illustrations were finalized and incorporated into the final scenario report. Furthermore, the illustrations were printed as posters and on postcards so that they could be distributed at conferences, events, and fairs.

4. Results

The following chapter will first briefly present the results of the preliminary analyses that were conducted before imagining the future scenarios. Each scenario will be described in detail and show what life in general—and in the crafts sector, specifically—looks like in these scenarios. Specifically, the scenarios will address the daily work of craftswomen and craftsmen, education for prospective craft workers, and how society in general is working in this specific case.

4.1. Expert Interviews

The experts from three different countries underlined first and foremost that new technologies will have an increasing impact on the craftsmanship of 2050. Although the human aspect will always be a central aspect of craft, they stated that technology will increase possibilities, increase work safety, and decrease the workload for the workers. Furthermore, in their view, monotonous work will be automated, resources will be managed more efficiently, and products will be of higher quality and individualized for each customer. Some interviewees noted, though, that this effect will not be felt by all craftspeople and that the impact will strongly depend on the specificities of the individual sectors.

Concerning the most important technologies of the future, the experts mentioned 3D printing, robotics, artificial intelligence, and the Internet of Things. All of these technologies already exist in some form in the project regions, but there is still much room for potential. To integrate these technologies, it is crucial to invest in more digital education and training, they stated, as increasingly digital competencies and other soft skills such as adaptability, creativity, and willingness to learn new methods/techniques will be crucial in the future.

4.2. Delphi Survey

Regarding the professions of the future, the Delphi analysis showed that experts are in line with the opinion that digitalization and the application of new technologies will generate new areas of employment, new job positions, and new expertise. Hence, craft professions will become increasingly attractive to young people and universalists. The panelists agreed that crafts of the future will combine new technologies, products, and services with traditional values, working methods, quality, and materials, thereby further developing them. Humans and robots will work together; humans will continue to play a central role in the development of craft professions in the future, although robotics will become increasingly relevant.

The statements about the necessary skills for the future, with the most consent, were in line with the results of the expert interviews: in the future, digital and social skills will be required in addition to traditional craft skills and should therefore be pursued throughout the training process. Among the most important soft skills the participants agreed on were the willingness to learn, systematic learning, creativity, flexibility, communication and collaborative skills, and critical thinking.

The agreement on opportunities was also in line with the expert interviews, underlining that thanks to the new technologies, companies will be able to reorganize the production process and the internal structure in a more effective, innovative and transparent way, and be able to reduce the workload and increase safety. Furthermore, panelists agreed that new technologies and digital infrastructures will allow easier access to information. As a consequence, the visibility of individual companies will increase, making it easier to keep in contact with regular customers and attract new ones. Change obviously also brings challenges with it. The most agreed-upon challenges for the crafts sector were that different professions will benefit to varying degrees from digitalization, and some professions will disappear. Furthermore, the success of the crafts sector will depend on a change in customers’ awareness of quality, price, adaptability, and sustainability. As the population ages, the average age of craftsmen will increase, and at the same time, it will be difficult to attract young people to work in the sector.

4.3. Focus Groups

The focus groups reaffirmed most of the results from the previous steps of the project. However, having a more precise focus on specific professions and a mixture of experts in the field and craftspeople allowed for a more detailed picture. Participants underlined that many smaller enterprises are scared of big changes. Furthermore, many resources (money and time) would be necessary to digitize processes. This combination definitely hinders technological change in the project regions. Participants also noted that the government and research institutions need to help SMEs in their digital transformation. The generational change was singled out as one of the most pressing issues in today’s crafts sector, as young people are not willing to seek a career in crafts. Participants underlined, though, that increasing digitalization of the sector would make it more attractive to young people, and therefore craftspeople require more digital competencies to advance the sector technologically.

4.4. Future Scenarios

The development of future scenarios using the Manoa method (Schultz 2015) not only synthesizes insights from mixed methods research and literature review but also underscores the significance of visualization, particularly in relation to shaping the future imaginary of the crafts sector. We utilized the one-axis method to craft scenarios tailored to the digitalization-focused scope of our project, envisioning three distinct levels of impact, ranging from low to high. Leveraging the Manoa method, we further integrated four additional megatrends and segmented the scenarios into four sub-sections: the manufacturing sector, the general services sector, the construction sector, and skills and competencies.

4.4.1. Scenario 1—The “Niche” Scenario

In the “niche” craft scenario (Figure 1), there is a notable emphasis on increasing individuality. Competition is marked by a strategic focus on specific market segments, leading to a heightened level of specialization and resulting polarization within the crafts sector. Regionalization, as well as a growing appreciation for values such as familiarity, authenticity, and locality, drives a demand for traditional methods and products. Despite the introduction of new technologies primarily in managerial functions, the essence of craftwork remains largely unchanged. The inherent specialization and small scale of craft enterprises hinder their ability to benefit from knowledge transfer from larger, more digitally oriented businesses. The scenario highlights the distinct positioning of SMEs in contrast to global corporations. The emergence of a new generation of digitally savvy entrepreneurs presents both opportunities and challenges, underscoring the importance of education and training in equipping future craftspeople with the necessary skills. In addition to technical proficiency, soft skills such as creativity, networking, and adaptability are increasingly vital. Overcoming resistance to change among older generations and fostering gender inclusivity are identified as key challenges. Nonetheless, the scenario underscores the enduring value of craft enterprises in a globally competitive landscape, driven by their specialization and commitment to quality.

4.4.2. Scenario 2—The Automated Scenario

In the automated craft scenario (Figure 2), human labor seamlessly integrates with machine technologies and robotics. Tedious and hazardous tasks are increasingly automated and standardized, resulting in enhanced safety, efficiency, and productivity. Collaboration among urban and rural communities, businesses, customers, and research and development entities forms the cornerstone of this scenario, fostering innovation and addressing socio-political challenges at the local level. Consequently, this scenario presents a balanced reality within the crafts sector, characterized by a commitment to regional sustainability and renewable energy usage. Both large corporations and small to medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) leverage new technologies and digitalization initiatives to create a more sustainable and inclusive environment, with a focus on ecological, economic, and social considerations. While machines play a pivotal role in operations, humans remain essential, driving innovations geared towards greater environmental sustainability. Vocational education programs prioritize data literacy and cybersecurity to meet the demands of an increasingly digitized workforce. Overall, the scenario reflects a shift towards widespread acceptance and implementation of digitalization, fostering interconnectedness and reducing polarization within the crafts sector.

4.4.3. Scenario 3: The “Cyborg” Scenario

In the “cyborg” scenario (Figure 3), the line between humans and machines becomes increasingly blurred, with technology and artificial intelligence seamlessly integrated into everyday life. Digitalization empowers individuals to shape their lives and careers according to their preferences, transcending physical limitations. Advanced AI capabilities enable the collection, analysis, and implementation of data worldwide, facilitating global collaboration and solidarity in the crafts sector. Moreover, technological advancements enable small enterprises to transcend geographical constraints, reach a global audience, and embody their values and identity on a worldwide scale. This scenario also sees a redefinition of traditional work models, with new concepts gaining traction and fostering a better work-life balance for craft workers. Human-machine integration becomes ubiquitous, with workers connected to AI systems managing production processes and product transportation in real time. Craftsmanship bifurcates into artistic and conceptual strands and more technical facets linked to IT and machine management. Additionally, the global labor market facilitates the recruitment of skilled workers from diverse backgrounds, promoting a balance between professional freedom and smart working practices.

5. Discussion and Conclusions

Digitalization has already had a big influence in the crafts sector, giving new opportunities but also creating uncertainty and polarization between those who are more tradition-oriented and digitalization-averse and those who are more innovation-oriented. What is new is the level of complexity when digitalization is combined with automation and interconnectedness at horizontal and vertical levels between humans and machines, as well as the new technologies being created in the future. Firms that are already unable to deal with research and development are facing the most difficulties. Foremost, smaller firms are affected in their innovation activity because of a general perspective of the costs, risks, and financial issues around digitalization. Businesses that are more innovation-active often have to overcome obstacles related to the lack of digital competencies (Hammermann and Klös 2016). This shows how complex the problem is, because even though companies are open to technological change and ready to invest in it, the lack of competencies or employees rejecting digital innovation are still big issues.

This is in part related to the vocational and educational systems, but also to what extent companies already implement measures. Training and education seem to be crucial in order to implement the needed skills and competencies. In order to fight the lack of appreciation of craft workers and to reevaluate the imaginaries of craftswomen and craftsmen in society, the educational system also needs to be upgraded. Research shows that eight out of ten companies think the educational and academic system needs to be changed (Hammermann and Stettes 2016). Companies need support to develop more specific training for the digital transformation (Flake et al. 2019), but in general, vocational training still seems to focus more on practical competences than digital ones. To approach the complexity of the specific learning and knowledge process, which in the crafts sector is often related to informal and application- and practical-related knowledge and experience, it seems necessary.

It is important to further consider how it would be possible to integrate practice and knowledge. It shows how important it is to provide external scientific and technical knowledge in the more traditional crafts sector. While knowledge transfer within the creative economy and product design fields already exists, its significance in empowering artisans to innovate, adapt to market changes, and stay competitive is often overlooked (Luckman 2015; Temeltas and Kaya 2021; Viganò et al. 2023). As Edgar Morin (1992) pointed out, it is possible to face these complex problems using a transdisciplinary approach, combining the culture of practice, the humanistic, and the scientific culture. With this approach in mind, our paper stands out as a unique and valuable contribution, bridging future studies with management and organizational studies, developing not only different scenarios, but also visualizing them to support future imaginary.

Finally, the personal identity and the general image of the craftspeople have an important role in the process of change, also in terms of eco-social transformation. In all three analyzed regions, crafts relate to a social imaginary that is mostly influenced by tradition, due to their historical importance, and craftspeople are not considered “highly skilled and talented” workers. Richard Sennett (2008) suggests that “making” is central to craftspeople, and this can be seen as the potentiality of the skilled embodiment of the practical and is moreover about the question of how identity is negotiated within these practices of embodiment (Bose 2019; Bell et al. 2021). Crafts are also part of the cultural heritage of a region because they embody the local culture and traditions (Yang et al. 2018), which are transmitted through the tacit knowledge of the practice of the everyday life of craftspeople. Digitalization and the value of practice-based skills, therefore, need to be integrated into the narrative of the practice of everyday life. This is also related to the individual, regional, and national histories of the crafts sector and the people working in it. Understanding the evolving role of crafts in the context of eco-social transformation and digitalization is crucial for informing policies and practices that support the preservation of cultural heritage, the empowerment of craftspeople, and the sustainable development of local economies.

Future scenarios offer plausible depictions of potential developments in the next 10 to 30 years, illustrating how various actors might influence societies, economies, and individual lives. They do not constitute predictions but rather narratives grounded in existing trends, intended to inform forward-looking strategies and provoke critical reflection. The objective is to stimulate the exploration of diverse pathways for defining individual and sectoral identities. Consequently, this approach encouraged SMEs to reconsider their future trajectories and imaginations, challenging conventional thinking patterns and unveiling new possibilities. Engaging in scenario creation further fueled their motivation to actively shape their futures, alongside other SMEs in the region. Moreover, working with future scenarios enabled SMEs to devise concrete solutions to some of their challenges, drawing inspiration from the identified drivers or personas to address their own realities.

The research presented herein represents a significant advancement in the field, marked by its innovative development and application of tailored future scenarios specifically aimed at the crafts sector. Distinguished by its incorporation of insights from diverse stakeholders and transdisciplinary perspectives, this study stands out from previous works, which often adopted narrower scopes or lacked a comprehensive approach. By offering a holistic framework for envisioning and navigating potential futures, it addresses both the crafts imaginary and personal identities within the context of the crafts industry. Furthermore, this research breaks new ground by providing novel insights into how the crafts sector responds to technological evolution through the development of future scenarios tailored to its unique characteristics. By acknowledging that the future exists only within our imagination, it recognizes the transition from the linear conception of time to circular time and cycles, challenging the conventional notion of past-present-future time as a construct of our modern age. Through the integration of a transdisciplinary approach, it pushes the boundaries of our understanding regarding how digitalization and other megatrends may influence the trajectory of the sector. Consequently, this comprehensive analysis not only sheds light on potential challenges and opportunities but also provides strategic guidance for effectively navigating the complexities of technological evolution within the crafts industry. Moreover, by elucidating the contributions of the findings to both theory and practice, this study enhances clarity and reinforces its practical relevance in shaping future strategies and decision-making processes.

Limitations

Of course, this research is limited by only including three regions from two countries. Even though we tried to integrate more international knowledge by selecting experts for the Delphi Study, it would be interesting to analyze other cases. Moreover, the problem that there is no existing common definition of the crafts sector had to be solved through compromises with all the partners to focus on some specific aspects. Another important limitation is that not only digitalization will strongly affect the sector but also other megatrends, such as demographic development and skills shortages. Moreover, the interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary nature of the study inherently poses a limitation in academic literature, as it requires navigating diverse methodologies and perspectives, which may present challenges in terms of coherence and synthesis.