Air Passenger Travel and International Surveillance Data Predict Spatiotemporal Variation in Measles Importations to the United States
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Results
2.1. Inflow Variable Informed by Air Travel and International Surveillance Data
2.2. Comparison with Averaged Inflow Variables
2.3. Comparison with Modeled Inflow Variables
2.4. Predicting Measles Origin and Magnitude
2.5. Association between Imported and Indigenous Measles Cases
3. Discussion
4. Materials and Methods
4.1. Data
4.2. Model Description
4.3. Analyses
4.4. Alternative Inflow Variables
Supplementary Materials
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Inflow Variable | λ | Correlation | AUC 1 |
---|---|---|---|
Full detail | 0.041 | 0.84 | 0.78 |
Averaged incidence | 0.041 | 0.76 | 0.79 |
Averaged air travel | 0.041 | 0.76 | 0.79 |
Modeled incidence | 0.0022 | 0.77 | 0.79 |
Modeled flight data | 0.012 | 0.61 | 0.67 |
Population only | 4.32 × 10−5 | 0.66 | 0.58 |
Inflow Variable | Cross-Validated λ (Mean ± SD 1) | Cross-Validated Correlation (Mean ± SD) | Cross-Validated AUC (Mean ± SD) |
---|---|---|---|
Full detail | 0.041 ± 0.002 | 0.78 ± 0.2 | 0.78 ± 0.06 |
Averaged incidence | 0.041 ± 0.002 | 0.71 ± 0.2 | 0.79 ± 0.05 |
Averaged air travel | 0.041 ± 0.002 | 0.76 ± 0.2 | 0.79 ± 0.05 |
Modeled incidence | 0.0022 ± 1 × 10−4 | 0.77 ± 0.2 | 0.79 ± 0.06 |
Modeled flight data | 0.012 ± 9.3 × 10−4 | 0.61 ± 0.3 | 0.67 ± 0.07 |
Population only | 4.32 × 10−5 | 0.66 ± 0.1 | 0.58 ± 0.03 |
Inflow Variable | Flux | Incidence |
---|---|---|
Full detail | Complete flight data | Complete incidence data |
Averaged incidence | Complete flight data | Averaged incidence data |
Averaged air travel | Averaged flight data | Complete incidence data |
Modeled incidence | Complete flight data | Alternative incidence data |
Modeled flight data | Alternative flight data | Complete incidence data |
Population only | No flight data | No incidence data |
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Poterek, M.L.; Kraemer, M.U.G.; Watts, A.; Khan, K.; Perkins, T.A. Air Passenger Travel and International Surveillance Data Predict Spatiotemporal Variation in Measles Importations to the United States. Pathogens 2021, 10, 155. https://doi.org/10.3390/pathogens10020155
Poterek ML, Kraemer MUG, Watts A, Khan K, Perkins TA. Air Passenger Travel and International Surveillance Data Predict Spatiotemporal Variation in Measles Importations to the United States. Pathogens. 2021; 10(2):155. https://doi.org/10.3390/pathogens10020155
Chicago/Turabian StylePoterek, Marya L., Moritz U. G. Kraemer, Alexander Watts, Kamran Khan, and T. Alex Perkins. 2021. "Air Passenger Travel and International Surveillance Data Predict Spatiotemporal Variation in Measles Importations to the United States" Pathogens 10, no. 2: 155. https://doi.org/10.3390/pathogens10020155