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Predicting Conservation Status of Testudoformes under Climate Change Using Habitat Models
by
, ,
Wenbo Liao
1,2,3,*
,
Shun Cao
1,2,3,
Ying Jiang
1,4,
Weijie Shao
1,2,3,
Li Zhao
1,3 and
Chengzhi Yan
1,2,3,* 1
Key Laboratory of Southwest China Wildlife Resources Conservation (Ministry of Education), China West Normal University, Nanchong 637009, China
2
Key Laboratory of Artificial Propagation and Utilization in Anurans of Nanchong City, China West Normal University, Nanchong 637009, China
3
College of Panda, China West Normal University, Nanchong 637009, China
4
School of Ecology and Nature Conservation, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China
*
Authors to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Animals 2024, 14(16), 2300; https://doi.org/10.3390/ani14162300 (registering DOI)
Submission received: 15 June 2024
/
Revised: 31 July 2024
/
Accepted: 5 August 2024
/
Published: 7 August 2024
(This article belongs to the Section Herpetology)
Simple Summary
We investigated the effect of climate change on the potential distribution of 268 Testudines species and evaluated their future conservation status. Our analysis revealed that over half of these species are projected to experience a contraction in their distribution ranges due to climate change, leading to an increase in endangered species. In particular, three species currently classified as critically endangered—Three-striped roofed turtle (Batagur dhongoka), Durango mud turtle (Kinosternon durangoense), and Colombian mud turtle (Kinosternon dunni)—demonstrated over 80% potential distribution range reduction under future climate scenarios, resulting in the highest extinction risk. Additionally, our findings suggest that climate change may have positive effects on some Testudines species, with certain species potentially experiencing an expansion in their distribution ranges under future climate scenarios.
Abstract
Climate change promotes variations in distribution ranges, potentially leading to biodiversity loss and increased extinction risks for species. It is crucial to investigate these variations under future climate change scenarios for effective biodiversity conservation. Here, we studied the future distribution ranges of 268 Testudoformes species under climate change using habitat models, specifically species distribution models (SDMs), to assess their conservation status. Our results have indicated that over half of species are projected to experience declines in their potential distribution ranges under two scenarios. In particular, we found that three critically endangered species—Three-striped roofed turtle (Batagur dhongoka), Durango mud turtle (Kinosternon durangoense), and Colombian mud turtle (Kinosternon dunni)—displayed extraction of their distribution ranges and faced extinction under global climate change. Additionally, our analysis revealed that the potential distribution ranges of some species might increase under future climate scenarios. However, these findings must be interpreted with caution as they do not account for other significant factors such as biological invasions, population structure, land-use change, anthropogenic disturbances, and inter-organism interrelationships. Future studies should incorporate these factors to provide a more comprehensive assessment of extinction risks. Our findings suggest that climate change, in conjunction with habitat degradation and human activities, must be considered when assessing the extinction risks of Testudoformes.
