Forecasting Suitable Habitats of the Clouded Leopard (Neofelis nebulosa) in Asia: Insights into the Present and Future Climate Projections Within and Beyond Extant Boundaries
Simple Summary
Abstract
1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Study Area and Species Occurrence Records
2.2. Distribution Predictors for the Clouded Leopard
2.3. Assessment of Future Climate Change Projections
2.4. Species Distribution Model for Clouded Leopard
2.5. Assessment of Habitat Quality and Shape Geometry
2.6. Assessment of Biological Corridor Connectivity
3. Results
3.1. Ecological Niche Modelling and Predictor Importance
3.2. Habitat Suitability in Present and Historical Range
3.3. Country-Level Mean Habitat Suitability
3.4. Habitat Quality and Shape Geometry
3.5. Biological Corridor Connectivity
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Supplementary Materials
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Model | Dataset | AUC | ΔAUC | PCC | TSS | Kappa | Specificity | Sensitivity |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BRT | Train | 0.972 | 0.125 | 92.9 | 0.856 | 0.853 | 0.932 | 0.924 |
CV | 0.847 | 75.7 | 0.51 | 0.505 | 0.777 | 0.733 | ||
GLM | Train | 0.925 | 0.093 | 84 | 0.679 | 0.672 | 0.842 | 0.837 |
CV | 0.832 | 74.2 | 0.477 | 0.474 | 0.775 | 0.702 | ||
MARS | Train | 0.909 | 0.105 | 83.6 | 0.672 | 0.664 | 0.835 | 0.837 |
CV | 0.804 | 72.8 | 0.465 | 0.452 | 0.73 | 0.735 | ||
MaxEnt | Train | 0.95 | 0.109 | 88.8 | 0.778 | 0.771 | 0.886 | 0.891 |
CV | 0.841 | 78.4 | 0.565 | 0.558 | 0.809 | 0.755 | ||
RF | Train | 0.866 | 0.016 | 80 | 0.598 | 0.591 | 0.805 | 0.793 |
CV | 0.882 | 77 | 0.531 | 0.526 | 0.797 | 0.733 |
Predictor | Abbreviations | BRT | GLM | MARS | MAXENT | RF | Mean | Mean % |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Precipitation Seasonality (Coefficient of Variation) | bio_15 | 0.030 | 0.000 | 0.116 | 0.029 | 0.000 | 0.035 | 8.43 |
Precipitation of Wettest Quarter | bio_16 | 0.021 | 0.000 | 0.065 | 0.010 | 0.023 | 0.024 | 5.75 |
Precipitation of Warmest Quarter | bio_18 | 0.000 | 0.110 | 0.037 | 0.005 | 0.000 | 0.030 | 7.33 |
Precipitation of Coldest Quarter | bio_19 | 0.024 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.037 | 0.007 | 0.014 | 3.28 |
Mean Diurnal Range (Mean of monthly (max temp—min temp)) | bio_2 | 0.029 | 0.113 | 0.023 | 0.058 | 0.000 | 0.045 | 10.70 |
Temperature Annual Range | bio_7 | 0.145 | 0.267 | 0.085 | 0.258 | 0.023 | 0.155 | 37.37 |
Built-up | builtup | 0.000 | 0.040 | 0.000 | 0.019 | 0.000 | 0.012 | 2.87 |
Cropland | cropland | 0.037 | 0.067 | 0.044 | 0.023 | 0.000 | 0.034 | 8.19 |
Elevation | elevation | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.039 | 0.000 | 0.008 | 1.87 |
Evergreen Forests | evergreen_for | 0.000 | 0.092 | 0.000 | 0.070 | 0.040 | 0.041 | 9.74 |
Mixed/Deciduous Forest | mixed_for | 0.000 | 0.013 | 0.000 | 0.021 | 0.010 | 0.009 | 2.10 |
Slope | slope | 0.008 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.040 | 0.001 | 0.010 | 2.35 |
Scenario | Overall Range | Extant | Possibly Extant | Extinct | Possibly Extinct | Protected Areas |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Present | 93,353 | 44,033 | 20,034 | 14,022 | 15,264 | 25,614 |
SSP 245 (2041–2060) | 68,171 | 37,706 | 7349 | 11,008 | 12,110 | 24,327 |
SSP 245 (2061–2080) | 61,146 | 33,804 | 6107 | 10,198 | 11,038 | 22,352 |
SSP 585 (2041–2060) | 61,666 | 36,200 | 4599 | 10,245 | 10,623 | 23,576 |
SSP 585 (2061–2080) | 54,968 | 31,830 | 3841 | 9732 | 9565 | 21,217 |
Country | Present | SSP 245 (2041–2060) | GR of SSP 245 (2041–2060) from Present | SSP 245 (2061–2080) | GR of SSP 245 (2061–2080) from Present | SSP 585 (2041–2060) | GR of SSP 585 (2041–2060) from Present | SSP 585 (2061–2080) | GR of SSP 585 (2061–2080) from Present |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Malaysia | +0.743 | +0.672 | −9.54 | +0.662 | −10.88 | +0.659 | −11.25 | +0.649 | −12.59 |
Laos | +0.493 | +0.352 | −28.62 | +0.342 | −30.68 | +0.323 | −34.47 | +0.315 | −36.10 |
India | +0.488 | +0.261 | −46.43 | +0.251 | −48.53 | +0.234 | −52.02 | +0.214 | −56.12 |
Cambodia | +0.410 | +0.330 | −19.44 | +0.321 | −21.70 | +0.291 | −29.03 | +0.276 | −32.69 |
Nepal | +0.404 | +0.340 | −15.83 | +0.330 | −18.31 | +0.311 | −23.07 | +0.299 | −26.04 |
Vietnam | +0.365 | +0.279 | −23.44 | +0.268 | −26.46 | +0.259 | −29.05 | +0.243 | −33.43 |
Myanmar | +0.343 | +0.232 | −32.42 | +0.222 | −35.35 | +0.201 | −41.33 | +0.199 | −41.91 |
Thailand | +0.317 | +0.259 | −18.51 | +0.249 | −21.66 | +0.241 | −24.05 | +0.226 | −28.78 |
Bhutan | +0.273 | +0.232 | −14.93 | +0.222 | −18.59 | +0.210 | −23.14 | +0.189 | −30.83 |
Bangladesh | +0.242 | +0.215 | −11.35 | +0.205 | −15.48 | +0.195 | −19.46 | +0.188 | −22.35 |
China | +0.098 | +0.093 | −5.39 | +0.092 | −6.42 | +0.089 | −9.15 | +0.083 | −15.27 |
Scenario | NP | PD | LPI | TE | LSI | AI |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Present | 468 | 993,511 | 2.767 | 640.794 | 26.4291 | 82.1631 |
SSP 245 (2041–2060) | 429 | 913,023 | 2.420 | 525.378 | 24.5273 | 70.399 |
SSP 245 (2061–2080) | 385 | 819,379 | 2.200 | 477.288 | 23.4691 | 66.2725 |
SSP 585 (2041–2060) | 378 | 804,481 | 2.349 | 506.31 | 23.8346 | 62.7976 |
Corridors | Present | SSP 245 (2041–2060) | GR of SSP 245 (2041–2060) from Present | SSP 245 (2061–2080) | GR of SSP 245 (2061–2080) from Present | SSP 585 (2041–2060) | GR of SSP 585 (2041–2060) from Present | SSP 585 (2061–2080) | GR of SSP 585 (2061–2080) from Present |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BHU_IND | +2.441 | +2.063 | −15.48 | +1.901 | −22.10 | +1.802 | −26.16 | +1.662 | −31.89 |
NEP_IND | +2.114 | +1.901 | −10.09 | +1.719 | −18.67 | +1.600 | −24.33 | +1.490 | −29.53 |
MYA_CHI | +1.140 | +0.996 | −12.60 | +0.886 | −22.27 | +0.825 | −27.62 | +0.801 | −29.73 |
NEP_CHI | +1.044 | +0.767 | −26.48 | +0.657 | −37.02 | +0.644 | −38.30 | +0.621 | −40.51 |
IND_BAN | +1.041 | +0.909 | −12.76 | +0.709 | −31.96 | +0.689 | −33.88 | +0.656 | −37.01 |
CHI_LAO | +0.938 | +0.797 | −15.01 | +0.697 | −25.67 | +0.657 | −29.97 | +0.622 | −33.70 |
MYA_LAO | +0.881 | +0.548 | −37.88 | +0.491 | −44.35 | +0.455 | −48.37 | +0.423 | −52.00 |
MYA_THA | +0.754 | +0.593 | −21.32 | +0.489 | −35.16 | +0.421 | −44.18 | +0.409 | −45.77 |
BHU_CHI | +0.614 | +0.375 | −39.00 | +0.289 | −52.93 | +0.269 | −56.19 | +0.235 | −61.73 |
LAO_VIET | +0.612 | +0.420 | −31.43 | +0.400 | −34.64 | +0.370 | −39.54 | +0.343 | −43.95 |
BAN_MYA | +0.545 | +0.397 | −27.16 | +0.376 | −31.05 | +0.343 | −37.10 | +0.321 | −41.14 |
LAO_CAM | +0.446 | +0.356 | −20.15 | +0.333 | −25.31 | +0.314 | −29.57 | +0.301 | −32.49 |
CHI_VIET | +0.347 | +0.275 | −20.77 | +0.234 | −32.51 | +0.212 | −38.86 | +0.198 | −42.90 |
THA_LAO | +0.343 | +0.231 | −32.59 | +0.211 | −38.53 | +0.199 | −42.02 | +0.177 | −48.43 |
IND_CHI | +0.339 | +0.233 | −31.25 | +0.209 | −38.26 | +0.189 | −44.17 | +0.156 | −53.92 |
LAO_VIET | +0.302 | +0.209 | −30.82 | +0.190 | −37.10 | +0.170 | −43.72 | +0.140 | −53.65 |
THA_CAM | +0.266 | +0.170 | −36.04 | +0.160 | −39.76 | +0.140 | −47.29 | +0.120 | −54.82 |
THA_MAL | +0.253 | +0.176 | −30.31 | +0.157 | −37.89 | +0.136 | −46.20 | +0.122 | −51.74 |
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Abedin, I.; Singha, H.; Kang, H.-E.; Kim, H.-W.; Kundu, S. Forecasting Suitable Habitats of the Clouded Leopard (Neofelis nebulosa) in Asia: Insights into the Present and Future Climate Projections Within and Beyond Extant Boundaries. Biology 2024, 13, 902. https://doi.org/10.3390/biology13110902
Abedin I, Singha H, Kang H-E, Kim H-W, Kundu S. Forecasting Suitable Habitats of the Clouded Leopard (Neofelis nebulosa) in Asia: Insights into the Present and Future Climate Projections Within and Beyond Extant Boundaries. Biology. 2024; 13(11):902. https://doi.org/10.3390/biology13110902
Chicago/Turabian StyleAbedin, Imon, Hilloljyoti Singha, Hye-Eun Kang, Hyun-Woo Kim, and Shantanu Kundu. 2024. "Forecasting Suitable Habitats of the Clouded Leopard (Neofelis nebulosa) in Asia: Insights into the Present and Future Climate Projections Within and Beyond Extant Boundaries" Biology 13, no. 11: 902. https://doi.org/10.3390/biology13110902
APA StyleAbedin, I., Singha, H., Kang, H. -E., Kim, H. -W., & Kundu, S. (2024). Forecasting Suitable Habitats of the Clouded Leopard (Neofelis nebulosa) in Asia: Insights into the Present and Future Climate Projections Within and Beyond Extant Boundaries. Biology, 13(11), 902. https://doi.org/10.3390/biology13110902